Members Report: 23/05/16 (COMPLETE)

 

TIPS

None today. 

 

MICRO SYSTEMS

Other

A King Flat (16/1<): 6.45 Wind – Hardington DNQ (was 22s+ this morning until around 10am,backed down to 12s throughout day before drifting pre race to 20s Some may have backed him. We will back drifters etc – ‘non qualifiers’ that do win over time and generally all evens out) 

 

TTP MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

Carlisle (all 15/2<)

8.05 – Overhaugh Street DNQ

8.35 – Shes Electric – UP

9.05 – Lady Wootton – 2nd (neck) 15/2>11/2

 

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

5.00 Leic – Ganymede 10/1 (general) UP- 8 runs ago this horse was on OR83 and today comes here of OR68. He has won off 6lb and 7lb higher and is undoubtedly handicapped to strike again at some point -2/6 OR61-70. All race conditions look fine and it appears he has never handled cut in the ground, which could excuse recent runs. He has had two starts this season now so fitness should not be an issue. He races at C5 here but has won at C4. He also wears a visor for the first time. All of his wins have come in headgear and he won in 1st time blinkers when they were applied. The trainer could be in slightly better form – 0/31 last month, but she has had 12 runners in the last 14 days, 3 have placed – they will fire again at some point and maybe this one will kick things off. 

8.45 Wind – Biotic – 16/1 – UP-Trainer and Jockey are 3/11,6 places when teaming up here and it could be a developing relationship to follow. This one is unexposed enough, this being only his 14th flat turf start. He does have to prove himself from this mark but you could make excuses for all of his runs rated OR81+ and the run last time out suggested he may not be finished yet – that was eye-catching in the sense of how he ran on – and the winner that day has since gone in again – he was beaten 1.5 lengths or so. The step up in trip looks interesting given he has won over 1m3f and appears to get outpaced over shorter. There is a bit of pace to aim at here and he is a course winner. It may be that on turf he is a horse without a trip that needs plenty to fall right – come 8.50 we may be saying it didn’t look like he stayed and needs 10f again! He is also 2/6,4 in handicaps with 12+ runners – it could be that he likes to come through horses and needs to aim at a pace, no issues on that front here. At 16s, happy to have a nibble. 

***

That is all for today. Post complete. 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. Have been waiting for Ganymede for months. Ground has come right. Today looks the day.
    Intiwin 4.45 Ayr has big chance also.Well handicapped. Been backed from 12/1 into 8/1. Fahey’s only runner at Ayr.
    Big day if these two win.

    1. Yep agree about Intiwin- had a good look at him and Gworn also – well done if you got 12s. Couldn’t fully decide which of two to go with and also wondered if I was asking too much for both the top two to get beat, given their profiles/current form/position in market. But, if they do falter, you would think Intiwin would be best placed to pick up pieces – pace wise he could lead all the way also, and may have a tactical advantage. GL

  2. Hi josh. Hope u had a nice time in Prague. Any thoughts on Leicester 2.45 TTP highlights a horse there currently 10/1. Also ayr 4.45 looks a strong race but TTP trainer does well here and I though horse ran well in better race than this last time out. Currently 10/1

    1. Hi Daniel, I had a great time thanks. Weather was very good which always helps! I didn’t use my TTP guide today, and never be put off etc if haven’t mentioned something you think I should have etc. By all means share the names of the horses and I will have a look! Some thoughts on the 4.45 in reply to John above – those two did stand out as the ones that may trouble front pair – but as I said didn;t use TTP so there may be another whose stats are strong.
      I read your comments with Gerry etc about Maiden Races – the stats in TTP cover ALL maiden races and all horses in those races. If race has maiden in title, then the stats will apply. 1st Time out 2 year olds is a specialist area really in my opinion, hence why I had a separate section. The trainer stats in the ‘maiden’ section WILL include stats for first time out 2 year old runners, if trainer has had some.

      1. Hi josh here are the ones I was referriing to the top two.

        Leicester 2.45 Girlofinkandstars
        Ayr 16.45 Margaret’s Mission
        Windsor 6.45

  3. Biotic – Been reading some trainer quotes – Apparently he’s a big horse (nearly 17 hands) who was weak and needed to grow into his frame.They always wanted to try 1 1/2mile . comments like ‘next years horse’ and ‘work in progress’ . Also trained the mother, so knows the family?

  4. Ganymede and Biotic both look value bets, but the trainers are in dreadful recent form……. Last 30 days, EJH 0 from 31, Millman 1 from 36. This is in the price, of course, but I always find it hard to back when trainer form is poor. Has saved me losing on O’Meara FTP selections recently…….

    1. Yep agree Geoff – but trainer form is a funny thing and always hard to know whether it is an actual problem – sickness etc -, bad luck, the horses not having a chance (a trainer could be 0/40 in last month but every single runner has gone off at 20/1+,and on paper not having had a chance) Then there is the size of the yards etc and how many horses – small yards could get to point where every horse has been nabbed by the handicapper and it isnt that they are running poorly, but they simply cannot win.
      In terms of two trainers – as you point out price is the main consideration and they were good enough to take a chance – EJH – a few have placed recently and may be about to turn around, or not. We shall see. Millman – the horse is in form and ran well LTO, that was as important this time, and he was 16s. They may both bomb out – which at those odds will happen more often than not!

  5. Hi josh just purchased ttp really looking forward to using it during the summer months,it’s made me already think differently to my approach in betting many thanks

    1. Hi Tomo, good stuff. Any questions etc you know where to find me – or post a comment on here – plenty to get stuck into – very much a case of feeling your way in, working out best approach for you – and as always building up any bank etc. Some stats are so strong you may just decide to follow them blind,like a micro system – others you may wish to look at the race/horse in more depth and use as a ‘way in’. It isn’t for everyone, that approach- but you have 60 days to give it a go and if you don’t end up using it etc always happy to refund.
      There are many ways to skin a cat in this game – but flat racing is rather data rich when it comes to trainer angles/behaviour etc. More information the better when deciding on a bet. Good Luck!

    1. yep,happy to take chance at odds but had everything in favour to run much better than that – no excuses on that front, or how race panned out. Tame effort – maybe they are a bit sick. O’Meara’s haven’t run well at Ayr either, he looks to be going cold also.

    1. Hi Gerry – no, sadly not! albeit I do know someone who will have more of a clue than me and will ask them!

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