All indications are that I should leave the summer chasers for the time being. However, there was plenty to take away from the first tipping foray into a sprint handicap. Barkston Ash looks to have run up to his best. Sent off at half the advised odds, at 4/1, he got the lead on the rail and only got collared late on, losing by a neck or so in 3rd. He looked the winner all but for the last 25 yards or so but the younger legs just got there. Such are the fine margins of the sprinting game. I had fitness doubts/questions about the winner but having run ok on reappearance last year, and open to progress as a 4yo, money was going to be significant. He was weak this morning, but in fairness maybe not much money was around. In any case he was backed from 25s into 14s at the off and just got up late. I read the pace right and the track pace bias. So, a losing bet, but a good loser – as opposed to Double Silver, who I would rather not think about. Thankfully Richard Fahey ensured a profitable day of sorts for ‘the portfolio’ with a 10/1 winner for the TTP systems.
Onto Saturday where I have one race of interest, the Victoria Cup, which I have had a good look at…
BIG RACE PREVIEW (tips)
Outback Traveller – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (general)
Grand Inquisitor – 1 point win – 12/1 (general)
Having had a good look at this race these are the two that stand out and their odds are just about ok for me – I would rarely want to take single odds about a horse in a 29 runner handicap. I was struggling to make a case for any at bigger prices.
Let’s start with some trends/stats. Those that I used to guide me were:-
- 9st-9 or more on back a negative, Top 3 in weights a negative (0/57,7 places), Bottom weight a neg (0/31,3p)
- Aged 4-7
- 28 or fewer career runs
- 0-2 wins in C2
- 1 or more places in handicaps
- Race LTO had 8 or more runners
- Draw 24 or higher a negative (0/36,3 p in race – also, analysis of draw when good to firm – in comments on trends post- shows that middle to low have dominated)
I believe that leaves a shortlist of: the two selections / Mutawathea /Earth Drummer / Squats / Miracle of Medina / Predominance / Related / Ghalib.
Outback Traveller – was a real eye-catcher last time out under Spencer – he was just stuck behind horses for so long with nowhere to go. If this was the target that may well have been deliberate but he ran like an inform there and he was hardly busting a gut to find room/ride a finish. Watch the video if you can. This one is lightly raced, open to plenty of progress and has won over course and distance. He has form on good to firm and firm and ran a cracker here 3 starts ago, before flopping at the track again next time. He has since joined Robert Cowell who has done well with his handicappers here – 4/17,5 places in last 730 days. He is also drawn on the right side I think with a couple of front runners around him – he can also race up with the pace which could be important as I am not sure this will be a cavalry charge and those held up may struggle to get into it. All in all he could prove to be better than this mark this year and has plenty in his favour. 10s is just about fair.
Grand Inquisitor – in a way he looks like a typical SMS project and will surely improve at some point this season. He ran some very good races as a 3yo, in decent company. It may be that he wants further than this and may just not get there – and I was also concerned by the draw – there is some pace around him but if the jockey comes to the stand side that would hurt his chance. Hopefully the jockey does his homework and tracks those down the middle/low. The trainer couldn’t be in any better form and he ran well enough on his reappearance. He really could be anything and at some point will progress past this mark. He has form on good to firm also and everything looks set for a big run. Certainly he looks one to keep on the right side of.
Predominance looks sure to go close here and is priced up accordingly. He is unexposed, won well LTO, ticks the trends boxes and won’t be far away. There really are not too many negatives, if any, for him – bar his price – and I have gone for two who are slightly bigger in the market. Saver material maybe.
PACE- Related in 1 can take the low numbers along and there are a few pace pushers that side. I think middle to low will be the place to be, both pace wise and on the draw stats. Majestic Moon may provide some pace on the stands side but there are a lot of hold up horses drawn high.
I have notes on every other horse in here and why I don’t like them. I will just say so if something else wins! There are a lot of exposed ones in here, plenty that have proven they are not up to this level, dont like the track or are either proven not to stay or are trying the trip for the first time – I dont like that in races such as this. Plenty have fitness questions/unknowns also. Buckstay caught the eye but he is high in the weights here and will do well to defy that mark. Free Code is well touted but he is 0/2, 0p at Ascot,0/6,0p in C2, 0/6,0p OR91+(does have claim though) and 0/6,0 p 12+ runners. The trainer is also 0/53 here in last 5 years and he has a bad draw. I was happy to overlook him, albeit we all know what will happen now! 🙂
That will be all for tips on Saturday.
May Trainer (16/1<)
4.15: Free Code – UP
2.55 Hexham – Quick Decision – UP
Saturday TJC: 2.15 Hayd – John Constable – 4th 12/1
R Varian Fillies/Mares (25/1<) : 3.50 Nott – Imtiyaaz UP/ Queens Pearl UP
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS
7.35 Thirsk: Tamayuz Magic (28/1<) WON 8/1 (13/2 after R4)
8.35 Thirsk: Anieres Boy (28/1<) 3rd 10/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing else. Mainly as I haven’t looked – I appear to have been out, clinging onto my youth, until about 4.30am and to be honest my head is a bit sore! I am also about to jump on a train down to London to meet up with some old housemates from my university days- always a good laugh. Anyway, good luck with all your bets today. Josh