Tomorrow’s post is starting to take shape, with Tips up for 4.15 Ascot up already. That will be all for tomorrow, tipping wise. Tips below
Outback Traveller – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (general)
Grand Inquisitor – 1 point win – 12/1 (general)
Well not much to cheer on the racing front yesterday. I won’t dwell on those results for too long – the only positive being that both horses were well backed and we comfortably beat sp/BFSP. Sadly neither was competing jumping the last, which always annoys me. At least for us Liverpool fans we had something to cheer come the end of the day! Moving on.
Double Silver – 1 point win – 10/3 (PP) 3/1 – UP, I hope that isnt a precursor to BA! poor. Didn’t run much of a race at all.
*price as of 09.29
I think I backed this one LTO also where she ran a decent enough race – in what was a decent enough race – some good horses for the level. She was held up after 116 days off and took a while to warm to her task, that being her 4th chase start. Her jumping was a bit scrappy at times but she kept on well but could never quite get to the winner in time. She could well come on for that and the trainer is in form (2/8,4p last 14 days) and he does well at this track. She has a progressive profile and in theory there should be more to come. She is in form and she will be fit. So, those boxes are ticked. This is her second run after a mini break so should at least be fresh enough also. Oh, and she also appears to like the month of May.
10/3 is a decent enough price in this given the field size and the opposition. Many have plenty to prove.
If she fluffs here lines I should think Cloudy Bob wont be far away but he was clobbered by the ‘capper after his last win and that has held him the last twice – albeit a repeat of his last run wouldn’t see him far away – but, he is open to attack from anything more progressive. He also doesn’t win very often. Cody Wyoming has been clobbered as well and he will need to step up again. Historically this kind of mark has held him and he has yet to win above C4 – asking a 10yo to do something new is always a challenge. He should ensure there is some pace in the race and as long as the selection can keep tabs on him, we should be fine. Having said that, this race does have a feel about it whereby a 10yo doing something new wouldn’t be a total shock. But, at the prices, I prefer the selection. Western Jo may run his race but will need to step up and I don’t think they know what his best trip his – he has stamina to prove and that race wasn’t the strongest LTO. Benenden now has plenty to prove after two very poor efforts and I am struggling to see why he may suddenly bounce back. The other two have a bit too much to prove at the moment for me.
So, we should get a decent run for our money from this one. Hopefully she learns from last time and bar a fall she should be thereabouts at the end. In theory she should improve past this mark at some point, given her low mileage, hopefully starting with this race.
Barkston Ash – 2 points win – 8/1 (BetF/Boyle/Lad) 15/2 – 3rd, neck, 4/1
Everything looks primed here for a decent run from this old sprint veteran and he really shouldn’t be far away come the death. Firstly the race conditions – they are all fine and I expect he will appreciate this better ground – he handles soft/heavy but is best on good. He is 6lb below his last winning mark when taking account of claims and has run some cracking races off higher marks. He is 2/9, 6 places over course and distance, so we know he likes the place. He is also in very good form- he has been nothing but consistent this season and and repeat of recent efforts will see him bang there. He also has has a decent record when returning within 7 days of his last run. The final piece in the jigsaw, and in a way what made it 2 points as opposed to 1, is the pace set up. He is the only out and out front runner here that I can see and he has the perfect draw to get out and across to that far side rail. On this ground, I can see him skipping along on the front end winding it up from some way out. He will keep trying and I am hoping he doesn’t see another rival. On this ground, I don’t think he will be coming back to them.
The pace is important here because those drawn higher than 8/9 (and I assume they will stick to the stand side) look in real trouble – I don’t see who is going to take them along – they are all mainly hold up horses with a few ‘trackers’ in there. The pace map suggests that the far side will be ahead for most of the way here – now the fav may just be a classy animal in time – and that class may get Time Check out of trouble – but everything looks stacked against him- unless of course they try and make all against the rail, which may be possible. The draw stats also suggest that over this trip, on this ground, with 16+ runners that high drawn horses don’t do very well at all. Not impossible though.
The dangers? Well they are drawn low for me and are the two that were in front of Barkston Ash when they last met here a couple of starts back. They all finished close that day. The O’Meara horse seems best fresh and is also a hold up horse normally. He came from off the pace that day in heavy. I think that will be harder on this ground as Barkston Ash may be gone by the time he gets into top gear.
Explain is the main danger I think if building on that last run, and I may have had a saver (£5- 1/4 point) to cover my BA stake at 8/1. He may well improve for the better ground and did run a cracker from the stands side when they all met last time. That run would suggest that he was fit and spot on there, so I don’t think he will necessarily come on, fitness wise. But, he does have younger legs and could have progress in him. He may not be far away from BA, but hopefully the former can hold him off near the line. Having had a good look at the rest they have enough questions to answer for me – around trip, class, fitness, form etc.
I should mention the 7.05 at Ascot. Shore Step is the one that stood out but there is the fitness question – he was down the field on his reappearance last season and I would be guessing as to what to expect. He is the best horse in the race and if he is spot on will take all the beating for me. But, there are a good few in here where you are guessing as to fitness a bit and a few that have low mileage. I was happy to sit this one out, albeit will be banging my head against a wall if Shore Step scoots home!
3.25 MR – Laughton Park – UP
3.55 MR – Ourmanmassini – UP
TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS
2.10 – Gabrial’s Kaka 2nd
4.20 – Khelman WON 10/1
5.20 – Gabrial The Duke UP
Ascot (any odds)
7.40- Turbine- UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
CHESTER: Some success for the draw stats yesterday as Dark Red won well. I don’t think much else qualified on the odds front, horses 12/1< dominating the handicaps again. Fahey’s seem to have gone a bit quiet also, albeit not many of them have been well fancied.
Some Draw notes…
2.10 – stalls 1+4 over 7.5f – HillbillyBoy WON 8/1/Arnold Lane 3rd
4.20- Stall 8+9 : Navigate / Fast Dancer
5.20 – Whoopsy Daisy / Corton Lad / Racing’s Dream
Fahey May Meeting Micro (12/1<)
2.10 – Gabrial’s Kaka – 2nd
4.20 – Khelman – WON 10/1
5.20 – Gabrial The Duke UP
That is all for today. I have yet to use my guide to look through other cards etc, but fingers crossed you TTP users have a good day!
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