Members Report: 06/05/16 (COMPLETE)

** UPDATE**

Tomorrow’s post is starting to take shape, with Tips up for 4.15 Ascot up already. That will be all for tomorrow, tipping wise. Tips below

4.15 Ascot 

Outback Traveller – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (general) 

Grand Inquisitor – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) 

 

***

Well not much to cheer on the racing front yesterday. I won’t dwell on those results for too long – the only positive being that both horses were well backed and we comfortably beat sp/BFSP. Sadly neither was competing jumping the last, which always annoys me. At least for us Liverpool fans we had something to cheer come the end of the day! Moving on. 

 

TIPS

4.30 MR 

Double Silver – 1 point win – 10/3 (PP) 3/1 – UP, I hope that isnt a precursor to BA! poor. Didn’t run much of a race at all.

*price as of 09.29

I think I backed this one LTO also where she ran a decent enough race – in what was a decent enough race – some good horses for the level. She was held up after 116 days off and took a while to warm to her task, that being her 4th chase start. Her jumping was a bit scrappy at times but she kept on well but could never quite get to the winner in time. She could well come on for that and the trainer is in form (2/8,4p last 14 days) and he does well at this track. She has a progressive profile and in theory there should be more to come. She is in form and she will be fit. So, those boxes are ticked. This is her second run after a mini break so should at least be fresh enough also. Oh, and she also appears to like the month of May. 

10/3 is a decent enough price in this given the field size and the opposition. Many have plenty to prove. 

If she fluffs here lines I should think Cloudy Bob wont be far away but he was clobbered by the ‘capper after his last win and that has held him the last twice – albeit a repeat of his last run wouldn’t see him far away – but, he is open to attack from anything more progressive. He also doesn’t win very often. Cody Wyoming has been clobbered as well and he will need to step up again. Historically this kind of mark has held him and he has yet to win above C4 – asking a 10yo to do something new is always a challenge. He should ensure there is some pace in the race and as long as the selection can keep tabs on him, we should be fine. Having said that, this race does have a feel about it whereby a 10yo doing something new wouldn’t be a total shock. But, at the prices, I prefer the selection. Western Jo may run his race but will need to step up and  I don’t think they know what his best trip his – he has stamina to prove and that race wasn’t the strongest LTO. Benenden now has plenty to prove after two very poor efforts and I am struggling to see why he may suddenly bounce back. The other two have a bit too much to prove at the moment for me.

So, we should get a decent run for our money from this one. Hopefully she learns from last time and bar a fall she should be thereabouts at the end. In theory she should improve past this mark at some point, given her low mileage, hopefully starting with this race.  

 

6.55 Ripon 

Barkston Ash – 2 points win – 8/1 (BetF/Boyle/Lad) 15/2 – 3rd, neck, 4/1

Everything looks primed here for a decent run from this old sprint veteran and he really shouldn’t be far away come the death. Firstly the race conditions – they are all fine and I expect he will appreciate this better ground – he handles soft/heavy but is best on good. He is 6lb below his last winning mark when taking account of claims and has run some cracking races off higher marks. He is 2/9, 6 places over course and distance, so we know he likes the place. He is also in very good form- he has been nothing but consistent this season and and repeat of recent efforts will see him bang there. He also has has a decent record when returning within 7 days of his last run. The final piece in the jigsaw, and in a way what made it 2 points as opposed to 1, is the pace set up. He is the only out and out front runner here that I can see and he has the perfect draw to get out and across to that far side rail. On this ground, I can see him skipping along on the front end winding it up from some way out. He will keep trying and I am hoping he doesn’t see another rival. On this ground, I don’t think he will be coming back to them. 

The pace is important here because those drawn higher than 8/9 (and I assume they will stick to the stand side) look in real trouble – I don’t see who is going to take them along – they are all mainly hold up horses with a few ‘trackers’ in there. The pace map suggests that the far side will be ahead for most of the way here – now the fav may just be a classy animal in time – and that class may get Time Check out of trouble – but everything looks stacked against him- unless of course they try and make all against the rail, which may be possible. The draw stats also suggest that over this trip, on this ground, with 16+ runners that high drawn horses don’t do very well at all. Not impossible though. 

The dangers? Well they are drawn low for me and are the two that were in front of Barkston Ash when they last met here a couple of starts back. They all finished close that day. The O’Meara horse seems best fresh and is also a hold up horse normally. He came from off the pace that day in heavy. I think that will be harder on this ground as Barkston Ash may be gone by the time he gets into top gear. 

Explain is the main danger I think if building on that last run, and I may have had a saver (£5- 1/4 point) to cover my BA stake at 8/1. He may well improve for the better ground and did run a cracker from the stands side when they all met last time. That run would suggest that he was fit and spot on there, so I don’t think he will necessarily come on, fitness wise. But, he does have younger legs and could have progress in him. He may not be far away from BA, but hopefully the former can hold him off near the line. Having had a good look at the rest they have enough questions to answer for me – around trip, class, fitness, form etc. 

***

I should mention the 7.05 at Ascot. Shore Step is the one that stood out but there is the fitness question – he was down the field on his reappearance last season and I would be guessing as to what to expect. He is the best horse in the race and if he is spot on will take all the beating for me. But, there are a good few in here where you are guessing as to fitness  a bit and a few that have low mileage. I was happy to sit this one out, albeit will be banging my head against a wall if Shore Step scoots home! 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

3.25 MR – Laughton Park – UP

3.55 MR –  Ourmanmassini – UP

 

***

TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS

Chester (12/1<) 

2.10 – Gabrial’s Kaka 2nd 

4.20 – Khelman WON 10/1

5.20 – Gabrial The Duke UP

Ascot (any odds)

7.40- Turbine- UP

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

CHESTER: Some success for the draw stats yesterday as Dark Red won well. I don’t think much else qualified on the odds front, horses 12/1< dominating the handicaps again. Fahey’s seem to have gone a bit quiet also, albeit not many of them have been well fancied. 

Some Draw notes…

2.10 – stalls 1+4 over 7.5f – HillbillyBoy WON 8/1/Arnold Lane 3rd

4.20- Stall 8+9 : Navigate / Fast Dancer

5.20 – Whoopsy Daisy / Corton Lad / Racing’s Dream 

Fahey May Meeting Micro (12/1<)

2.10 – Gabrial’s Kaka – 2nd

4.20 – Khelman – WON 10/1

5.20 – Gabrial The Duke UP

***

That is all for today. I have yet to use my guide to look through other cards etc, but fingers crossed you TTP users have a good day! 

***

TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

  1. Basford Ben Carlisle in May – Starting to love this horse 9/2 big price – Add it to your list Josh – Hope you didn’t desert it – Highest ever mark but dodgy favourite win easy !!

    1. All I am going to say Jo is bollocks. And that hopefully answers your question,and rather sums up the day! Liverpool had better lift my mood! (you are also going to tell me he got an easy lead…which I thought he wouldn’t,didn’t expect him to dismiss some of them that easily)

    1. It did, and was needed haha. Good to see the old boy trot up again there, despite not carrying a shilling of mine. Glad you had a piece at what was a good price.

  2. That was an utterly miserable day,Thankfully I have nothing of interest at Market Rasen so can lick my wounds tonight

      1. Used my G/son’s ticket Josh……Just like the old days….got lashed after…
        Clippety’s a real case. lol.

  3. I am busy Friday and so I would thought I would highlight some runners early.

    Duke of Firenze is in my book a 5F flyer. He goes in the 3,00 at Lingfield Park. He may be suited by a quick 5F such as at Epsom next month?

    Humour ran a good race LTO without troubling the winner. Another sprinter who may get closer to winning this time? Runs in the 8.20 at Nottingham and is currently 8/1.

    At a shorter price Ice Lord (7.05 Ascot) was only beaten by Englishman LTO I think? There is some 7/2 about at present.

    I believe Daghash has been going well and is ready to go in the 5.30 at Ascot. 12/1 available.

  4. Must make a note of Global Applause – won the 2yo race @ Newmarket on 2,000 Guineas day. Apparently, according to Dave Edwards (RP, topspeed) and sectional times, he ran the fastest final furlong of the meet. Interesting also is that his first season sire Mayson who is relatively cheap won the July Cup which can often throw a useful stallion, Green Desert & Oasis Dream etc

    1. Good shout Andy, will add to the tracker – yea I was reading about him in The Weekender I think, which I am getting into the habit of reading mid-week – he is about £5k isnt he – bargain it would appear.

      1. Yup, I did reply to his post yesterday explaining but yes, I copy n paste the topspeed table from the post bang it in a spreadsheet add the three course-distance-going columns & divide by three, do like ones 5lb clear but top3 can produce big FC’s & not long back a £7,800/1 tri-cast.

        [If only I could find a better formatting process than the wordpress blog I use, I could have my own blog running merrily,.]

  5. What a lesson in trading 4.30 Newt Abb? Bit like when your odds on fav footie team goes down by a goal or similar ranked tennis player loses first set, there’s better odds available & time to get on….

    Zulu Oscar, the 2/5f, made a hash of the first two flights, I was only watching as Key To Milan was a big cdg but I’m sure Zulu Oscar hit near 10/s in running & it wasn’t until it was ll over that I realised, that’s not the first time I’ve seen that…..

  6. Re Barkston Ash in the 18.55, the O’Meara horses are strong qualifiers statistically in your Flat Stats. Sleeper King in fact qualifies on a number of your angles – 4yo+, 6f race, combo with Tudhope, and no run for 0-90 days (though 515 days is a bit extreme!). O’Meara/ Tudhope are 5 from 19 at Ripon over 365 days, and re his other horse, Dandyleekie, Ms Birkett is 1 from 2.

    More of a challenge for me is whether to back the Fahey horses at Chester when stable form seems so poor………

    1. Yep – break a concern for Sleeper King – and am sure most of O’Meara’s have been needing the run this season – could have that wrong mind -may be a change in tactics,getting them to peak a few runs in rather than 1st time up- also his best form for old connections was when stepped up to 10f – given his form before that over 5/6f I would be surprised – on breeding also – if he had the toe for this – and there is unlikely to be a pace burn-up. Could be wrong though and any market support would have me twitchy! he is drawn in the right place, if I have read it right.

      Fahey’s – always tricky with yards like that who have so many horses – does he,like Johnston, have satellite yards? Always complicates matters for stable form – in fairness his two that were 12/1 or below I think ran ok, one grabbed 4th in big handicap and another ran on in a non handicap yesterday – but they appear to be finishing weakly. I will take a chance – if he more favoured ones start bombing out then the warning signs will be clear.

      1. Faheys column on the Sporting Life site. Re Khelman, he has had three runs off of this sort of a break and finished second twice, so can run well after a lay off despite what Fahey says below.

        Gabrial’s Kaka is our first runner of the day in the Crabbie’s Earl Grosvenor Handicap and he’s another first – he has a good draw. Marwan has endured a horrendous week on that front but this horse is in great order and he’ll run well providing he gets luck in running which you always need – and he was short of it at Haydock last week.
        Khelman reappears in the Sustainable Group (UK) Ltd Handicap. I don’t know why but it always seems to take a run or two for him at his very best. That said we’re happy with him at home and he looks ready to go so we’ll see.

        Gabrial The Duke is also in good order and he has a nice enough draw in two for the closing TCC 10th Birthday Apprentice Handicap. We’ll slot in and see what happens but he certainly wouldn’t be without a chance.

    2. Very true gerry. Have gone with omeara and tudhope as ttp points out. Both combo did well at Beverly recently and ttp also highlighted it.

  7. Re the 6.55, Sraightothepoint could well take BA on from stall 2 as he is also ridden prominently. Finished second at Haydock on his return in May last year so can run well fresh. Not a problem in that we can save on him, just whether they get into a duel up front and spoil BA’s chance.

    1. yep good shout I did look at that – concluded that given the absence and fact he didn’t seem that well fancied that he may track leaders at best – may be a bit rusty starting – maybe – hope is that BA can at least grab rail – his jockey has a very good clock – doesnt have to lead for win purposes – as you say a question of whether of whether they do too much- I suspect on this ground he may be away, given his fitness/sharpness edge – and in any case Samrt’s may drop away if not primed, before final furlong or two. Gives the impression will lead if nothing else, but if something else goes forward happy just to track – hope that is the case anyway!

      1. Yes that is perfectly fair. What I sometimes do, particularly with front runners, is have a couple of pound extra on the exchange and put in lay bets at low prices in case it trades short but gets collared late on.

        1. Yep – well he will definitely be right up there and I suspect his price will drop a few points now long after the start.

          1. Do hope you may have had a nibble Richard, good shout and I was worried pre race when I saw the money coming! Ran a cracker first time up.

      2. As one of the joint owners of Barston Ash I hope your call is right. I can confirm he is in really good order but a little concerned about the drying ground. He is a big topped horse and as he is getting older the softer ground certainly helps him. who knows which side will be favoured but if he breaks better than he did last Sunday (and as well as he normally does) then he will take some passing on the rail. He loves the track and he is quirky but Jason is a major plus as he knows him very well. Here’s hoping…

        1. Hi John, good to hear from you. Good point, and a general one at that, about age vs ground preference. It shouldn’t be good to firm so hopefully he enjoys it – we shall see. Has been running very solid races recently and I felt that the softer ground may have blunted some of his speed – that he still looks like he retains – it is certainly easier to get away on the front end when it is drier I think. Pace certainly favours low- provided no actual track bias on the day (you can never fully tell) I would expect the winner to come from his side – and yep though the rail would help also. Anyway, hope you have a great day out if you are there cheering him on! everything crossed!

          1. Thanks Josh, he certainly does retain his speed as his home work this spring has been the best it has ever been. Normally he is very lazy and his approach to exercise matches my own! However for whatever reason this year he has worked enthusiastically and hasn’t needed his usual 3 races to get into form. He won’t be the horse he was a couple of years ago and a drop of a couple of pounds would be welcome but he is still capable of winning of this mark if things go his way. I will be there and hopefully will have something to celebrate although the most important thing is that he comes back in one piece.

        2. Got barkston Ash in my tracker up to 27/04

          Ideal Conditions
          6f | C4 level & below | Fields of 15 or less | DSLR 21 or less
          Other Notes – Doesn’t seem to enjoy Haydock (0/13 at track) | He has strong
          May form (4 wins, 1 place from 10 starts)
          If you take all of his form positives and also get rid of his Haydock runs you
          get a form line of 111521516241113 (8/16) 8 of his 10 wins

  8. I recently bought Jon Gibby’s book ‘Well handicapped three year olds’ which I would thoroughly recommend. It aims to find late maturing scopey three year old’s that are stepping up in distance, having been handicapped as two year olds. I have had a few winners already including Ian Fleming which won yesterday at Chester despite being 7lb out of the handicap. Thatr horse qualified also as a TTP from Andrew Balding’s yard. There are a few qualifiers today including ‘Kilim in the 7.20 at Nottingham trained by Luca Cumani whose record at the track for first time handicappers is 5/3/12 over five years. Ideally I would prefer the trip to be further than a mile but I thought I would put it up as an interesting angle and as the book retails at only £7.99, is great value.

    1. Yep have heard a few good things about that book, seems to be a well respected publication. Yep I had a nibble on the Balding ‘capper also – continuing his fine handicap stats at the meeting as well.

  9. I have Suzi horse,
    2:10 CHESTER
    Jallota and Perfect Pasture 12/1 and 18/1 early price PP is to watch closely

    3.10 Chester Cymro 7/1
    18:55 Ripon Dandyleekie 8/1

    8-00 RIPON AMERICAN LIFE 9.00
    8-20 NOTTINGHAM ARTBEAT
    and i gave credit to Kemsing ,first run on flat K is Southwel master
    7:50 NOTTINGHAM 9/1

    Forza LFC

    1. Good Luck Pab, good little selection of fancies there, will watch with interest!! I wont be cheering on Dandyleekie though! 🙂

      1. Good luck with BA.

        I looked at the race last night and whilst drawn to BA felt it was still a couple of lbs too high to win.
        It has won within a few days of its last run several times but the last time it did that it was rated 78 back in sept 2013.
        As the horse gets older I feel it needs a further rating drop.

        It’s approaching 2 years since its last win off 89 so theoretically its well in but old father time is also creeping up & in my view if the handicapper dropped him a few pounds more then i’d be more confident.
        Time will tell 🙂

        1. He is the cdg horse but my 80% Lay man has put him up as a selection so if <10/s Lay ? It was only 2 years ago BA clocking decent figs but Classic Senority not far behind & half his age & may not have finished improving yet:

          TS rpr 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg
          72 101 Barkston Ash 9-2 25 73 — 64 72 68 89 98 105 98 100
          95 98 Classic Seniority 8-13 95 49 — 70 70 58 95 95 95 95 95
          90 99 Dominate 9-2 78 69 74 82 90 81 90 98 86 90 91
          62 98 Ambitious Icarus 9-1 67 84 58 14 62 32 88 90 84 87 87
          89 96 Bashiba 9-2 79 76 67 88 89 54 89 89 79 89 86
          87 101 Piazon 9-4 87 79 66 84 24 — 87 78 87 87 84

      2. Artbeat Julia Feldon second last time Thirsk but was real winer
        woth to track
        but if he will run ,Notingham going is soft Julia has wrote that he will run if going is enough soft

  10. A few for me today:

    Sound Advice 14:10 Chester, Dalgleish possibly the hottest trainer around (4/11, 7 places in the past 14 days including 3 out of his last 4); Horse is 2/2 over course and distance; Makin’s only ride at Chester before he goes up to Ripon

    Yeeow 19:05 Ascot; Ran really well from a poor draw last weekend; Drops back down to a class 3 where he is 1/5, 3 places in handicaps; won this 3 years ago off 5lbs higher and is 1/2 at the track; Both his handicap wins are on good/firm so should prefer the faster ground

    I have read that Cosmic Storm is meant to be a very good horse in the 18:10 at Nottingham and appears to have been underestimated by the market.

    I actually have two against BA in the Ripon 18:55 who I agree could quite easily win but I thought was a poor price when looking last night. My main bet is on Classic Seniority who was behind BA at Ripon LTO however that was his first run of the season so I think he will come on for that and I don’t think he was suited by the heavy ground. Fife is 4/11, 5 places +42 around here in handicaps in the past 2 years; Horse is 1/2, 2 places so clearly likes the track. The other one who I thought was a big price was Alexandrakollontai who appears to have ideal conditions and back below her last winning mark if you take the jockey’s claim in account. I would discount his recent form since he has been racing over the wrong distance and ground since he has most of his winning over 6. Yes the draw is not ideal but at the price you have to have a saver.

    1. I can’t imagine Alexandrakollontai is at his best at Ripon. Likes stiff tracks and I wait until they get him handicapped for Hamilton which he loves.

      1. yep someone on Twitter got speaking to me about her – agree best form at Hamilton/Carlisle – infact i had a look when her OR was 79 or below (ignoring claim), 6f, Hamilton/Carlisle is…. 1,1,3,3,4,5,1,6,2,5,1,3,1,1…. she is in the tracker – can see why some would have a go at her price today albeit 0/12, 1 p when 22/1+ i think – wrong side of track also – but is 40/1 – do suspect they may be hoping to drop mark before returning to one of those two tracks above. Could be wrong though.

        1. You’re probably right although couldn’t resist a saver at the price. I also have her as Hamilton/Carlisle but she actually ran ok on her only time at the track losing by less than a length over an unsuitable 8f so there is nothing to say she won’t like Ripon either.

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