NO BETS of any sort today.
There a no system bets of any kind and I won’t be looking at anything else. A day off.
Yesterday…Thankfully wily Mick Easterby provided the blog/TTP main systems with a decent enough winner to ensure it wasn’t total carnage. I hope the TTP stats may have pointed users to a few more winners also. From the comments I think that was the case.
Victoria Cup – unlike with 3m+ chasers I won’t be dragging myself over hot coals as much when selections dont win etc in these races – they are such a game of fine margins and are the ultimate punting puzzle – and sometimes they make you look silly. Over the course of the season I am confident I will pick a handful of 16/1+ winners in these races and we should do ok. The draw became irrelevant when all jockeys, bar one, decided to race up the middle. That isn’t something you can predict easily.
The selections ran well enough -Outback Traveller loomed up and looked the winner to my eyes entering the final 1.5f or so (certainly based on jockey language) but when the button was pushed there was nothing there. Excitement to disappointment in a matter of strides. Maybe a problem will come to light or he just has that in his locker. The Stoute horse ran well enough also and wasn’t far away come the death. I am unsure if he is a horse without a trip – maybe they should try him again over 8f – or needs even more of a cavalry charge at that trip -interesting what they do next with him.
The winner…well at least with my stats/trends approach it can be clear why I may have been put off a horse- clearly trends/stats get broken and that was a prime example, him being top 3 in the weights/draw/pace question. But, if you just looked at the horse then of course a case could be made. Young, progressive, still in the ‘could be anything’ camp. To win that race, like that from that mark, suggests that he may well leave handicaps behind at some point very soon. The lesson from that race is to note down Godolphin and how these races appear to be targeted now.(maybe that has always been the case but I have never really thought of the Royal Blue mopping up massive Saturday handicaps with regularity) Appleby adds this win to that in the Lincoln – they clearly have well bred animals on their hands and unexposed/progressive ones at that. Appleby in particular is clearly one to note in these races moving forwards.
I will re-watch the race again at some point for future reference and see what else caught the eye etc. We beat the market again and got runs for our money to an extent and I look forward to the next 20+ runner challenge.
Enjoy your Sunday,