Ascot: Victoria Cup Trends/Stats

ASCOT: VICTORIA CUP

17 renewals

413 runners, 68 placed horses

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 13/17 Top 5 LTO
    • 13/219, 47 places…76% winners…53% runners…69% places
    • 15/17 Top 10 LTO
    • 11th or worse: 2/82, 6 places…12% winners…20% runners…9% places

Horse Age

  • 13/17 Aged 4 or 5
  • 17/17 Aged 4-7
    • 8+ : 0/34, 3 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing overly significant

Horse Weight

  • 14/17 carried 8-13 or less
    • 3/17 9-0 or more: 3/155, 26 places…18% winners…38% runners…38% places
    • 9-9 + : 0/16, 3 places

Horse Official Rating

  • OR 103+ : 0/25, 3 places
  • OR 97+ : 2/116, 21 places

Season Runs

  • Nothing significant

Odds

  • 50/1+ : 0/45, 1 place

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Headgear

  • CP: 0/12, 1 place
  • Blinkers: 0/24, 3 places
  • Visor: 1/16, 1 place

Weight (excl J-Claim)

  • 8-2< : 0/34, 3 places
  • 9-9+ : 0/22, 3 places
  • 9-0+ : 3/165, 26 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Top 3 in weights (ic joints): 0/57, 7 places
  • Bottom (inc joint): 0/31, 3 places

 

Stalls/Draw

Stall

  • 26+ : 0/32, 3 places

Position in Stalls

  • Widest (not inside): 0/17, 1 place
  • 22-26 : 0/30, 4 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H -Run (90 days)

  • 4+ : 0/31, 3 places

H – Run (career)

  • 29+ : 0/107, 8 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0: 0/14, 0 places
  • 25+ : 0/86, 6 places

H- Run (track)

  • 12/17 yet to run here…12/150,29 places

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career).

  • 14/17 had 0-3 career wins
    • 14/233, 45 places

H-Win (Class)

  • 17/17… 0-2 class wins
    • 3+ : 0/30, 3 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

H-Places (Hncp/Non)

  • 0: 0/38, 2 places

Jockey Claims

  • 7lbs: 0/19, 3 places

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non Handicap: 1/64, 6 places

 

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • 13/17 ran in C1 or 2 LTO
    • 13/265, 51 places

 

(LR) No. of Runners

  • 7 or fewer: 0/35, 1 place

 

 (LR) Odds

  • 16/1+ : 2/122, 16 places

(LR) Track

  • Newm (Rowley): 5/66, 16 places
  • Kempton: 4/47, 10 places
  • Leic: 2/12, 4 places
  • Newb: 2/38, 9 places
  • 1 win: Newm (July)/Dundalk/York/Southwell
  • Lingfield: 0/35, 4 places
  • Haydock: 0/16, 4 places
  • Ascot: 0/18, 2 places
  • Ponte: 0/11, 0 places
  • Thirsk: 0/20, 0 places
  • Donc: 0/35, 5 places
  • Wind: 0/11, 1 place

 

Horses ‘First Ever Run’ Characteristics

1st Run Distance

  • 5f: 1/62, 9 places
  • 8f + : 0/55, 12 places

1st Run Placing

  • 1st: 0/55, 5 places

 

***

Trainers (of interest)

No trainer has won this more than once yet.

1 win …(of note)

  • Meehan/Balding/Coakley/J Hills/Barron/ B Hills/Ellison/ Marnane/ Margarson/ Goldie/ Elsworth/ Bethell /Nicholls

Others

  • K A Ryan: 0/15, 1 p
  • A Balding: 0/9, 0 p
  • R Fahey: 0/12, 3 p
  • M Channon: 0/11, 1 p
  • E Dunlop: 0/8, 2 p
  • M Johnson: 0/6, 0 places
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. On the prevailing fast ground is there a bias for those drawn high over CD, do you know? I seem to recall that there might be.

    1. 7 – 13 – 23 the last 3 runnings on gf from 28/29 runners –

      I think it can depend on watering but I have noticed before that one side can ride faster than the other?

      Top 8 cdg’s (gf)

      2 (0-108) qm 117 6 5 4 3 2 1 LY G D C cdg

      Fort Bastion 8-13 99 88 95 90 26 106 106 100 117 112 110
      Heaven´s Guest 9-5 91 91 86 96 — 10 108 103 113 108 108
      Earth Drummer 9-0 108 71 100 81 84 42 108 108 103 108 106
      Outback Traveller 9-2 87 74 72 64 — 100 100 90 112 112 105
      Dinkum Diamond 9-5 97 84 81 103 84 — 103 105 103 104 104
      Majestic Moon 9-3 86 66 77 87 104 92 104 102 104 97 101
      Related 8-11 95 91 103 90 99 33 103 103 105 91 100
      Buckstay 9-9 89 85 89 95 102 82 102 95 102 102 100

  2. Hi both, I had a crude look.

    So on good and good to firm…
    12 winners, 287 runners, 48 places

    11/12 drawn 5-23, 11/207,35 places…92% winners…72% runners…73% places
    Stalls 1-4 = 1/44, 10 places

    12/12 drawn 1-23

    24+ = 0/36, 3 places

    Now, just Good to Firm…

    8 winners

    7/8 drawn 1-15 … 7/114, 22 places
    16+… 1/80, 10 places

    Fair to say I think that the lower half is best on quick ground, and certainly those drawn high may be up against it. Could depend on where the pace is and just about to start looking now.

  3. What a ‘kick-in-teeth’ wake-up call for my One Trick Trainer file that Ascot meeting was:

    My top 3
    tots Tot 16 Tot 15 Tot 14 T Trainer
    56 5 46 5 F Suroor S bin
    55 11 43 1 F Varian Roger
    53 3 41 9 F Appleby Charlie

    1st off – I thought Sign Of A Victory was getting over-hyped – King Bolete was the cdg horse and strong in the market – he became R Varian’s first of the month (One Trick wise) but

    Back to the Weekender, I’m sure it was Alistair Whitehouse-Jones ‘Taking Stock’ column pages 2/3 (always worth a read) must have been February/March last year and I think Charlie Appleby must have read it too and taken his advice. After mopping up everything on the AW winter 14/15 he said of Charlie Appleby that he should aim higher.

    Well, after a very quiet AW season this time, Appleby fires in the Lincoln winner with his only runner of the meet and now this, 20/1

  4. Some HOT fillies in the race prior to the Victoria Cup 1st 3 capable of Black Type in due course – make a note of Goldie’s for something up north won 3 on bounce May-July last year 1st run for 224dys here!

    [Could make a note of Flash Fire’s early notes – 7l’s clear of 3rd – time of the meet race 2nd start = good sign for future?]

    Saturday May 7th 2016 – gf

    3:40 – EBF Breeders’ Series Fillies’ Handicap

    C2 f’s RO +0.24 35dys 8gf Asc PC! +15 Imp’d May16 – XoM C4 drvn h’cap 4th st 19dys 8g Hay Jun15 – TDS – filly
    1m, Class 2, £28,012.50
    1 Light And Shade 11/2
    2 Tutu Nguru 4/1 – +16 Imp’d C2 f’s btn shd nr FoM 28dys 8gf Asc May16 –
    3 Margaret’s Mission 8/1 – +14 Imp’d C2 f’s btn <1l 224dys 8gf Asc May16 – mare
    9 ran Distances: shd, ¾l, 1½l
    TIME 1m 38.56s (fast by 0.24s)
    Jockey: Martin Harley
    Trainer: James Tate

    4:15 – totescoop6 Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap)

    XoM +0.25 drw29/26 C2 RO prm gd p 23dys 7gf Asc May16 – xom jt nk 2nd/14 ag' elders +16 Imp'd 7g NwmJ Aug15 – 7R C3 6l's MA 21dys 7gf San Jul15 – 7l's clr o 3rd/8 xom r 2nd st 10dys 6gf Pon Aug14 –
    7f, Class 2, £65,362.50
    1 Flash Fire 20/1
    2 Mutawathea 25/1
    3 Buckstay 10/1
    4 Dinkum Diamond 33/1
    NR: Ghalib (IRE), Mullionheir, Red Avenger (USA)
    26 ran Distances: ¾l, nk, 1½l
    TIME 1m 25.35s (fast by 0.25s)
    Jockey: Adam Kirby
    Trainer: Charlie Appleby

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