April has come to an end and as ever I have updated the results for your records. There is also a micro angle worth keeping an eye on at the end.
You can find a PDF below of updated results up until 3rd May… (you can enlarge it to make it readable, right click to open in new tab)
The headline figures for April…
41 bets / 3 wins / 6 won or placed* /7% winSR / 14.6% w|p SR / +0.52 points
* places being returns for advised EW bets
2016 To End April
153 bets / 25 wins / 28 w|p / 16% winSR / +124.75 points
Clearly the last two months have not matched the heights reached in the first two months of 2016 – but in a way what has taken place is a natural correction. Given the average price of winners is around 8/1 – it was unsustainable to maintain the winSR/ROI from the first two months of the year. Don’t get me wrong, I would like to sustain that level, but clearly it is hard. Indeed if you had split the profit equally – around +31 points profit per month – I think everyone would be more content.
I know a lot of readers may have started following since early March or something but it should be noted that since the start of March up to 3rd May we were still clinging onto around +5 points profit. As I write I am on a losing run of 16 – which if you flick through the results you will note that has happened a few times this year already. 16 has been the maximum so hopefully a few winners are not far away. But, we have to be prepared for long losing runs given the odds I play at. I would like to be operating around the 20% SR, but I only care for profits really, and so far so good. Betting is very cyclical and profits will return again at some point. If I am writing to you in 12 months time and we have maintained an average of +31 points profit a month I think we will all be content. That may be unrealistic, we shall see. Time will tell.
There are dangers in my approach. It can be a bumpy ride at times. If I get a couple of decent priced winners a month it usually means not too much damage will be done. Clearly if I fail to find those winners we will have losing months. You have been warned 🙂 But, I hope you can look at those results with some confidence. I am always learning and improving and hopefully we can start building up the profits again soon. January/February will happen again at some point, but I can’t really predict when!
You and I should also take confidence from the fact that I am smashing Betfair Starting Price – that is a positive in the sense that it would indicate I am comfortably beating the market, by taking advised odds. It means my ‘value’ radar has, on the whole, been working. Of course many can only bet on the exchanges and the profits are decent enough at BFSP – taking a price may pay better long term, esp for those tipped at 12/1 or shorter maybe.
I did have a flick through the results/horses and something did catch my eye. There have been a few ‘tipped’ horses that have lost for us, but on their next few starts (1-3 generally) have gone on to win. This may be coincidence or testament to the fact that I wasn’t completely mad when I tipped them – spotting something in their profile/form etc – I just backed them in the wrong race and too soon!!….
- Top Wood – 2 starts later won at 9/1
- West of The Edge – next start won over hurdles at 16/1
- Basford Ben – 4 starts later won at 7/2
- Tour Des Champs – two starts later won at 6/1
- Ibis Du Rheu – next start won at Festival, 20/1>16/1
- Loose Chips – next start won, after a break, 10/1
- No Duffer – won next start 10/1 (tipped and backed, for once!)
- Loughalder – PU when tipped, won next start 16/1
- The Young Master – 3rd for us Festival, won NTO Sand, 12/1 (two days before) 8/1 SP
- Cup Final – PU for us at Festival, won NTO Punchestown, 20/1
- Wellforth – tipped 25/1, tailed off but completed, two starts later won 16/1
- Bob Tucker – followed up win for us NTO, 12/1
- You’re Fired – tipped in Lincoln, won NTO 16/1
Now, I haven’t been through all of those that have run subsequently and lost, but there is something of interest in that lot above. I think, following those above until they won again, 1 point on each, would have added another +150 points to the pot. Probably minus a certain amount (maybe more!) following those that come out and lose. But, maybe I should keep a closer eye on those that I tip, on their next few starts.
Something to ponder. It isn’t something to follow systematically as there isn’t too much logic to that and plenty don’t come out and win etc – but I should be looking more closely at runners NTO – and maybe having something on those I could still give a chance to when looking at race conditions etc – especially when they are similar to their last race. Interesting.
MICRO SYSTEMS RESULTS
Up to 17th April the micros were: 6/36, +12.5 points
From the 18th until the end of the month…
April Trainer: 0/5 = -5
Jumps Handicappers: 5/15 = +27.5 points
Other: 1/12 = -6 points
Leaving the Total for April: 12/66 = +29 points
2016 Running Total
45/284 = +3.1 points
*** The micros had been in the doldrums a bit – hovering around -25 points for much of 2016 but April brought some welcome profit and hopefully they can kick on a bit now. I do need to review some of the jumps handicappers soon but they had a good month and can hopefully continue***
That is all for the results.
As always I don’t just like to bore you with results chat. There was some talk on the blog about the record of Jennie Candlish – some of you put up one of hers at 16/1 who duly romped home!
The approach is fairly straightforward…
- Jennie Candlish
- Flat Turf Only
- NOT Maiden Races (and by extension maybe those Novice races which are everywhere now)
- Any Odds
It doesn’t really get more simple than that. There is a big note of caution – all of the wins come from just 4 horses – Maoi Chinn Tire with 6 of those wins above and he isn’t getting any younger.
But, this does demonstrate that when she does send a horse onto the flat she clearly knows what she is doing. There is no other logical way to cut these figures down anymore – and when you are dealing with a small pool of horses that is dangerous anyway.
I won’t be posting any qualifiers but of course you are free to track these runners if you wish. I am sure in time she may find a new Maoi Chinn Tire- with any luck.
That is all for this post.