Members Report: 05/05/16 (Complete)

A new post for you including a link to updated results and a simplistic look at Jennie Candlish on the Flat….

NEW POST: UPDATE RESULTS + MICRO HERE>>>

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I am not one to whoop about a 3.6/1 winner – no ‘tap tap boom’ here, but it was just a relief to read a race correctly, get a win on the board and ensure that my longest tipping losing run for 2016 remains at 16 I believe (which, if you look at the above results,has been hit a few times) So, that was just good for confidence and mentality, if nothing else. 

Looking ahead to the weekend – I will get some trends up for The Victoria Cup on Thursday – a nice juice Saturday straight course cavalry charge to attack. That will be the only trends race. They also have a 6f handicap sprint that same afternoon. There is the Swinton Hurdle from Haydock but with a few unexposed ones likely to line up that may be one to watch with a notepad. But, I may have a glance. On Friday there is a 6f and 7f handicap from Ascot which may tempt me as well. So, a few races to look forward to. 

Onto Thursday…

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TIPS

3.00 Uttoxeter

Red Admirable – 1.5 points win – 14/1 – PU 7/1 – maybe just an out of form horse then. And a customary blunder – don’t think you would ever want to take a short price on him. He is well handicapped though and I will be watching his next few starts closely. 

*prices as of 08.30

**8/1 BV/888, 7/1 general as of 09.25

(Not sure what has happened here – tipped up somewhere else maybe! – but in the space of 50 minutes his price has halved. It does not surprise me – and I don’t think it is this blog to be honest as not many in recent weeks have moved in price at all!! At this rate he may have to be declared at 15/2 but I hope you got on at 14s) 

It would appear some shrewdies (see Ian’s comment,I don’t know who they are! 🙂 )  have tipped this one and they clearly move the market. 

Firstly I owe you all a slight apology. It has dawned on me, post Fakenham, that I have been looking at these spring handicaps with blinkers on – semi removed from the importance of handicap marks – now before you leap in the air and say ‘What!?’ – let me explain – During the winter months, on deep ground – soft/heavy – I don’t place much emphasis on handicap marks – of most importance is stamina and an ability to handle the ground – very soft/heavy – my opinion is that if a horse doesn’t handle heavy, he doesn’t handle it – simple as that – he can be 20lb below his last winning mark but if he has a good ground action etc, it doesn’t matter – he just won’t handle heavy. Clearly there are exceptions to this but that thinking has served me well in the winter months, as my results would show. Obviously when every horse handles conditions then you do need to be paying closer attention to handicap marks…

And that gets on to this time of year – on spring ground, where going is less of a factor (bar putting a line through horses that clearly want it deep) you need other ‘ways in’ – and, as Rebecca’s Choice demonstrated, handicap mark is crucial at certain levels. I know many of you would say that it is always crucial, even in deep winter ground – I would disagree to a point.

Anyway- is is clear from my write ups over the last, what, 8-10 weeks, that I haven’t been putting enough emphasis on such things – when the ground is less of an excuse for many and when many horses handle it. Take Party Rock at Aintree – if you have a HRB account, get that horse up and use the ‘Profiler’ tool – look at his record when he drops into the handicap ratings band that he did at Aintree – I did, and am still weeping!! So, you will be pleased to know that my mindset is now altered – about bloody time I hear you say – but at least we have been bobbing along in the meantime, rather than losing loads of points. It has clearly taken me a bit too long to move from my ‘winter ground approach’… (and that is no guarantee of finding winners of course,but it can only help!!)

Onto this horse…

Red Admirable – comes here off a rating of 114 – 4 runs ago he was on OR 125 – see, I am a quick learner 🙂 – 1lb above his last winning mark where he romped home. This horse is a C4 handicap chaser – and more than that – he is a C4, Left Handed, chaser. Indeed his record in those conditions reads 1,1,3 (a distant 3 of 6, off OR120- and only 8 days after a win) He is 0/10, 1 place above C4, and is 0/9, 2 places going right handed. He ran well at Donny in a much deeper race than this, all things considered. A line can be put through his last run, RH – he has never really gone that well, that way round. For a 10 year old he is lightly raced over fences – 2/12 – and with 4 career wins, and a few places, he does know where the winning post is, and is a trier. 

His two wins at this level have been impressive, especially his last at Haydock where he smashed a decent enough field – the 6 horses to finish closest to him that day have all come out and won multiple times between them – for the level, a bloody good race. He also gets a tongue tie here – doing something different – clearly they think it will help. 

The negatives…well, he could just be out of sorts. That is a possibility. The ground should be fine – the trip is a slight niggle – I would have preferred him over a dead 3m – but there are enough indications that he will stay, and hasn’t exactly proven he wont, in C4, going LH – never really tried- bar that Newbury 3rd. Anyway, those concerns were outweighed by the positives and built into his price of 14/1 – 8s is ok I suppose, but no 14s. The trainer is in ok form- well, from his last 4 runners one has at least placed in the last 2 weeks. Oh, and he can also clout the odd fence! 

Of the rest – well the top two have breaks to overcome and have questions to answer. They are both unexposed but are skinny enough prices considering. Shocked if either wins? No. Listen Boy is well handicapped but is just badly out of form and it takes some leap of faith at 6/1 for me. But, he could bounce back. Orange Nasseau is interesting- but Charlie has a few decent experienced pros he can call on and I don’t see it as a positive that none are here for the ride. I may have that wrong, but for one that does go well fresh he was really poor LTO. He just looks out of form and his wins have been in small field, weak races for me. He won’t get an easy lead either. He is 0/10, 1 place when over 4/1 – a ‘money horse’ maybe. They reach for headgear again – I don’t think that is a positive either. He has the ability to take this but happy to overlook. 

Loughalder is the interesting one after winning LTO at 16/1 and I know a few were on him that day. However, his last 4 wins have come off OR 99/108/105/106 – he goes off 111 here – now he has bolted up off 108 – but that was in a long distance race and may well be an anomaly . BUT, unlike many in here he is in form at least, and that counts for plenty. I am not sure if he will like this livelier ground and he may also be unable to dictate. Still, he won the race last year and would have a squeak. 

I can’t really have the rest.

PACE – Orange N and Loughalder will take them along- Red Admirable usually races up there, tracking the pace – so he should be in the perfect spot. Fingers crossed. 

6.50 Wincanton 

Azure Fly – 2 points win – 6/1 (general) 2nd (distant) – I am off to the pub hoping Liverpool can lift my mood. 

Foundry Square – 1 point win – NR

Azure Fly – well he is also below his last winning mark and he was tipped by me two starts ago I think, at Exeter. If you have looked at the results page (link above) you will see the growing list of horses that I have tipped, that have lost, but then on the next start, or the one after that, have bolted up at decent odds! I am hoping this may be another we can add to that list.

He ran well at Exeter but ultimately looked like he may have needed the run. He then ran a cracker LTO at Cheltenham where he was up there for a long way. I don’t think he stays that trip, but he plugged on well enough, running as if he was in form. Dickie has been booked – and that is always a big positive – and the pace factor interested me. There are no out and out front runners in here – but this one did lead all the way when he bolted up at Newbury – I am hoping Johnson may try and do the same here – bump him out, jump them silly, and not see another rival. He could be hard to peg back on this ground. Everything looks set for a very bold run and at 6s I was happy to get the 2 pointer out. He may prefer going RH, and he definitely prefers flatter tracks – 0/7,0 places on very undulating. He should give us a good spin here. Negatives? – well he is a thinker sometimes – but hopefully he is in a good place mentally today! 

Foundary Square – well I couldn’t leave him at that price given all race conditions look fine, he is well handicapped and he has been running some very consistent races, in arguably better races than this. He looks sure to track AF all the way round and for an inform horse I thought 11/1 was worth a poke. He will appreciate the ground and he stays. He looked of most interest at a price.

Of the rest – well Caulfield’s Venture isn’t getting any younger and he is on a career high mark – you would think something in here would have more in hand – but he does go well fresh and all race conditions look spot on. Same Difference obviously deserves a mention – if he returns to any of his old form – then we have probably lost 3 points – but it would all appear to rest on the blinkers – and whether they have done something with him in the last 60 odd days – which is possible. If he is still travelling well going out for the final time then I will be concerned -but he does have enough to prove in the context of his price – if he were 10s+ I would have had a nibble no doubt. Set List is in the could be anything category but comes here after a break and comes up against a lot of experienced chasers – he will have to be smart to beat a few of these if they run their races. Again, in that context, his odds are short enough. A few questions, including stamina. Velator is now 0/16, 4 places from handicap marks of OR121+ …it may be asking a lot for him to do something different at his age BUT all race conditions are spot on, the jockey knows him, he is a course winner, will relish the ground and may come on from his last run – so, not a forlorn hope or a total shock winner.

I am struggling to make much of a case for the rest.

So, AF will lead them along hopefully. FS won’t be too far away and with any luck, as the turn for home, it will be clear that one of them will be winning this. A 1-2 maybe. Well, that would be asking for too much.

Good Luck.

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That is all for tips

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MICRO SYSTEMS

 Jumps Handicappers

5.40 Carl – Dalby Spook (12/1<) 3rd 12/1

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS

2.10 Chest – English Summer  DNQ

5.25 Chest – Energia Flavio DNQ / Modernism DNQ 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

CHESTER: Again, I have yet to look at the horses for these. This time I have just focused on the Fahey Micro, the Draw Micro and a few other draw notes. 

2.10 –

Fahey Micro 12/1< – English Summer / Perrault 

10f+ Draw Micro: Dark Red / Perrault 

3.45 – Stalls 1+4 stand out over this 7.5f trip: Above N Beyond / Still On Top

4.55 – Stalls 8+9 stand out: Heraldic / Birdcage 

5.25 – Draw Micro: Mustaqqil/Top of The Glas/Moonday Sun/Modernism

Fahey Micro (12/1<) : Modernism / Energia Flavio 

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NEWTON ABBOT

I thought I would use my new guide to see if anything caught the eye – there could be a couple of monster price horses to throw some spare change at, EW, for fun…(on this occasion I have looked at the horses mentioned,but not the opposition in much depth etc) 

2.50 – School For Scandal – 33/1 -trainer does well here in handicaps – SR low enough but the profit levels are decent, suggesting the odd biggie goes in. He also has a decent enough record with handicappers coming here after a break. I mean he could be useless but he is 2/8,6 places in C5 and is a distance winner. Houghton’s Bridge Hall goes for the Hills – who do very well here but in the context of his form his price may be short enough – clearly expected to go well though. 

3.20 – Braavos / A Little Magic – Hobbs is a man to keep onside here over the summer months and this progressive sort could follow up again. His horses are bouncing again, as they have been since about 100 BC I think. A Little Magic goes for Jonjo who does well here – this one is unexposed but comes here after a break and the yard are quiet again. The market may guide. The Fav for the Pipes – I am still unconvinced he has the stamina for a test like this but if he is going to get this trip it will be around here I suppose. Still, a bit to prove. Classy though. 

5.05 – Bogoss Du Perret – 33/1 another Frost biggie who may fall out the back of the tv but he has 2 wins in novice handicap hurdles and although the profit suggests they have been well fancied, you never know. This is a weak race and he gets blinkers for the first time and should appreciate this better ground. I may just be losing it mind, but funny things can happen in races like this. 

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Post Complete, bar write ups, on their way. (09.50)