I have pulled together some notes for Chester’s May Meeting. There are a few ‘eye-poppers’ in there – well, my eyes were popping anyway. Some interesting Draw info, and not what I expected to see.
These are the kind of ‘meeting notes’ I would now normally reserve for Donations Club members but thought I would share these ones with you all, this time…
I have also started to pull together some Trainer Track Profiles for the Summer Jumps, to be followed by the All-Weather also. Below is a link to the profile for Newton Abbot. I hope to have the rest complete by the end of next week. I have yet to decide what I will do with them. If I charge, DC members will get the pack for free, but I may end up just giving the lot away as you all deserve a quality freebie every now and then 🙂 The jumps are a bit different from the flat and if you have any suggestions for ‘stats areas’ I may have missed/would be useful do leave a comment.
I am sounding the ‘Horse Racing is a bloody Hard Sport To Win Money On‘ klaxon and if you think, for one moment, it is easy, then my friend you are in the wrong place.
There are many a bastard, for want of a more polite phrase, who will take your money (and a lot of it), promise you a big pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and never deliver – because there is no rainbow – it will just keep raining, raining and raining some more – the sun will never shine – and there will be no rainbow. Trust me, I have been there. It took me 5 years to get out of the two overdrafts that I maxed in my first year at University having followed one of ‘those tipsters’. And that isn’t bullshit – it is true. (-£2650 to be precise) And if you don’t think that every loser I tip doesn’t hurt then you really haven’t come to know very well at all. (some services do actually promise pots of gold, and do deliver!)
Anyway. Dave. I hope you are reading. And I am not picking on you, but in fairness I fear a few may have read what you wrote and agreed. And that may be fair enough. My fault for not being even more explicit.
- If you have not read the ‘members club’ tab in the top right hand corner, please do. That kind of explains the approach. The one thing this blog has is a structure. The daily posts consist of 4 parts – well 5 if you include my ramblings at the start. There are Tips/ Micro Systems / Stats|Angles of Interest and the new TTP Main System Bets/ – if, at any point, you are not clear about how you should engage with any of those (after having read the tab above) please do say. Leave a comment, drop me an email. I really can’t stress enough that my purpose in this online world of ours is to increase your enjoyment of this great sport of ours.
- It is hard to make a profit at this game, long term. But, we are doing ok, and importantly, we are on a journey. I will still be here talking nonsense in 10 years time, and the 10 years after that. I have hit a rut on the tipping front, but it WILL get worse at some point. There will be worse losing runs. I can see why, if you started following the tips in March or something you would think I don’t have a clue. But all I ask is that you study the historical results of my tips and have some confidence. This jumps season, up until the end of Feb, we made around 160 points – or £3200 to £20 bets. March/April were on about +10 points combined, and now -5.5 points into May. I am not happy with my performance in the last few weeks – but it happens. I would like my win SR to be higher. I have made errors, I will learn from them, and we move on. In the grand scheme of things, we are not doing too badly. My own target in my mind was for the tips to make 100 points per calendar year. I would bite your hand off every year to make what we did between October and now.
- I can be an overly confident young man – but when I say I am the most transparent and honest person you will meet in the online racing world, or maybe in life, I believe that to be true. I pride myself on that – along with ‘customer’ service it is 100% in my control, unlike the horses! I will never bull shit you and will always be trying my best to make your experience the most enjoyable it can be. You would not believe how self critical I am of myself and how much I want to improve. I don’t hide from poor performance, and I welcome polite criticism.
- BUT, I will have losing runs. If you follow the Tips you should have a 50-80 point bank I should think, maybe 100 points. The same again for the systems. You should be prepared, mentally and financially, to lose every penny. If you are not, then you are betting too much, for now. I will have losing runs of 25-40 at some point on the tips ( I think 18 has been the worst to date since October,but am updating 2016 results tomorrow). You have to be prepared for that, if you want to follow my tips. Now, my job is to work harder – for myself and for you- to analyse what I am doing wrong, to correct it and to ensure I am asking the right questions and doing everything in my power.
We are on a journey folks. I hope many of you will be with me for many years to come. It will be enjoyable, it will be profitable but it wont be easy, it will have its ups and downs. That is betting. That is horse racing. I lost one of you today. I don’t like that. This is a place where every punter should feel at home. If I haven’t explained something please say so, ask the question. If you are not happy with something, please say so, ask the questions. To coin an awful phrase, ‘we are all in this together’ 🙂
I am off to bed. (apologies if you don’t approve of the odd swearword)
I should say something about Rebecca’s Choice – as there is plenty to take away from that victory. A sound big price judge on twitter, Gary Priestley (brother of Gavin, nag-nag-nag) tipped him, and looking at it with ‘different eyes’ after he had won, I can see why. This is all in the context of him being 25/1. His last win was in 2014. Now, he had the class, ground was fine and he was a proven stayer. His last win was off OR128. His run before this was off OR 122. On Tuesday he raced off OR114. He’d had only 6 chase runs since his last win, and dropped 14lb. He had never been put into a race in recent months – and his mark had come down. (in part it would have fallen that steeply because of his age I imagine, fair enough) Also, the jockey was in the form of his life and the trainer had been banging in the winners. Suddenly, when you view it like that, 25s seems a reasonable bet. I can see why some would have had a nibble. There are lessons a plenty for me to take away from that one. Forefront of my mind should have been a deeper consideration of his plummet down the weights, allied to the fact that he likes good ground and stays every yard of this trip. That thought process did not cross my mind. I paid too much attention to his recent form. (context of his price is important)
And now for a positive midset. The winners will return, and they are not far away!…
3.35 Newton Abbot
Art Mauresque – 1 point win – 4/1 (BetFr/BV/Coral) WON 3.6/1 (after R4)
My first reaction on seeing 4/1 about this horses chance, in this race, was to get on – I have backed this one a few times in recent months – I had an ‘interest’ bet in October when he won with ease in a C2 Novice at Cheltenham and them tipped him NTO for my Daily Punt column where he ran well all things considered in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. This is no PP Gold Cup. I don’t think he likes massive fields and all indications are that he must have good/good to firm going. That ground/field size saw him return to form the last day, where I may have had a nibble again – he looked like the winner approaching the last but was out-jumped and he may have bumped into a decent one there – it was a G2 Handicap Chase with a big gap back to the rest. Interestingly Nick Schofield takes the ride – and given STD is here – it is clear he is being reunited with the horse because he gets on with him and has won on him. He may get the lead here – it depends on what Sew On Target does – but he has never stayed this trip and they may hold him up a bit – either way there won’t be any complaints on that front – he should be in the right place and I would like to think he would scoot away around here jumping the last couple, on this ground. This looks like the easiest race he has lined up in since his Novice win and I would hope he shows his full colours in this company. I am not sure where they go if he doesn’t! Nicholls is in very good form and I can see no excuse. At 4s I was happy to have a dart, given he could out-class these. His actual weight is a question – I expect he will be fine carrying it but until they try you never really know. The fact he carried 10-4 the last day, and has 11-12 here indicates how much stronger that last race was, in terms of the ratings of the oppo.
Of the rest – well they are a fairly exposed bunch and many are not getting any younger. Portway Flyer is the main danger as he is progressive and won well LTO. The 46 day break is a slight concern and the selection will have track position on him. He is progressive and if AM fluffs what looks to be a decent opportunity, he won’t be far away. Both Workbench and Fox Appeal are better going the other way (0/9,2 p – and 0/6,2 p in chases LH respectively) and in any case both come here with some questions to answer now. There isn’t anything in here either that you would say is especially well-in (Rebecca’s Choice was the smack in the face I needed to put a bit more emphasis on handicap mark!) Astracad is on his last winning mark but is a bit out of sorts and getting on – Fox Appeal is 7lb below his last winning mark – so I suppose he is due to go in at some point- but he continues to threaten and then disappoint – he couldn’t take advantage of it the last day and does like to try and take a fence with him every now and then. The last run was more positive mind.
I won’t tip anything at Chester – there are enough stats for me to get stuck into. The fav does look strong in the Chester Cup, having had a quick look- well drawn, still progressive, stays, front runs/races handily – there is plenty to like- but he is 7/2. Given McCain’s liking for the race and record here, his William of Orange would be of some EW interest maybe – but from that draw he will need plenty of luck and in reality may be only playing for place money – and I never like betting on a horse expecting a place at best – market support would make him of more interest as I suspect this has been the plan since he came to the yard. They are my initial thoughts, to be taken with a large pinch of salt – I dare say one of Fahey’s may qualify on an angle below.
4.35 Kelso – Weapon Of Choice (12/1<) UP
4.45 NA – Dont Do Mondays (14/1<) UP
7.00 Weth – Coozan George (12/1<) UP
7.30 Weth – Dalby Spook (12/1<) NR
8.30 Weth – Boruma (12/1<) UP
TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS
3.10 – Angel Gabrial DNQ/ Duke of Clarence DNQ / Gabrial The Hero 4th 12/1 / Gabrials King DNQ
3.45 – Lexis Her0- DNQ
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
4.10 NA – Milestone – any odds – goes for that Williams/Moloney micro researched a few weeks back. I post the Saturday qualifiers above but this is the extended version – they pop up with the odd monster every now and then. Have yet to look at the horse. From memory and the stats in the NA report above, these two do well here also.
CHESTER: I have used my notes to highlight any runners of interest . I HAVE NOT even looked at the horses concerned, very much pointers based on the stats I researched. Remember, when it comes to handicaps, all winners here in the last 5 years have been 12/1 or shorter.
2.10 – Fiery Character – Trainer record in non-major non handicaps
2.40 – Somehow / Pursuitofthestars / Desertoflife – trainers who have had winners in listed/Gr3 races here,last 5 festivals
3.10 – All of Fahey’s 12/1 or shorter.
DRAW Micro Angle… Totalize / Min Alemerat /Gabrial The Hero (stats based on those 12/1< – but, you never know!)
(number 13 has been withdrawn – those stats very much based on the stall number- William of Orange is in draw 14)
I missed out John Reel, who goes for a trainer who is 3/9 in handicaps here. Knew I would miss something! Probably not the only one.
3.45 – Stalls 8+9 stand out on the stats: Blithe Spirit / Lexi’s Hero (12/1< don’t forget) – Alston a positive record at meeting for the former – 2/7, 4 places.
FAHEY MEETING MICRO – Growl (12/1<)
4.20 – Ballista – Trainer record in non-major, non handicaps
Rene Mathis – as above.
4.55 – Monacco Rose – Fahey in maidens here
Exoteric – Hills has won with a maiden here.
5.25 – Soldier in Action / Zzoro / Red Verdon (trainers who have all had handicap winners at meeting – could throw in Fahey’s from the general stats but he is 0/14,5 p in 3yo only handicaps – one will go in at some point no doubt)
That is all for today. Post complete. 09.40