Members Report: 03/05/16 (COMPLETE)

*** THERE IS A LINK TO SOME CHESTER NOTES IN TOMORROW’S POST ALREADY***

Well I am going to owe plenty of you an apology for only getting around to researching this months ‘monthly trainer’ today – on day 2 of the month. I posted the research up for T D Barron a couple of hours before there was a potential qualifier – Play Nicely – who won the 2.30 Beverley at 14/1. He had been 25s and was gradually backed in – rarely do I not cheer winning 20 points on a horse, (I had 1 point on at 20s PP when 14s/16s everywhere else- a punt that he would ‘qualify’) but I take no satisfaction from that one not being available before 10am this morning- I know many of you won’t have backed him – and if you are a regular ‘monthly system qualifier backer‘, I can only apologise. – In future I will make sure ‘monthly’ research is complete before the month starts. 

I wont be claiming that one in official results but hope some of you may have read/backed him. 

NEW POST: MAY TRAINER HERE>>>

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Meanwhile my ‘spring’ tipping form in 3m+ chases continues to be more miss than hit. Opening Batsman looked like he was coming into it well – and I suppose he ran well enough for 3rd. Court By Surprise was nibbled at, threatened, and then faded. Bob Tucker – well always annoying when a winning tipped horse LTO goes in again un-backed. Bugger. I questioned whether he was good enough- I didn’t think that was the best race LTO – I thought there would be others better in here – I also had stamina questions in this grade and at what I thought would be a stronger pace – but he stayed well enough there – I had concerns about his jumping going RH and a niggle over the trainer form. Wrong, wrong and wrong some more. I clearly didn;t give enough weight to the fact that he was fit, in form and still open to improvement. There weren’t many in here who you could say that about. He was also a single figure price this morning before drifting out to 12s. A review of April will be up in the next couple of days, but that wasn’t the best of starts to May. 

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TIPS

3.30 Fakenham

Finish The Story – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (Boyle/BV/SJ/Lad/Coral/WH) UP

Emerald Rose – 1 point win – 14/1 (Bet365/BV/SJ)* UP 

*prices as of 08.00

As ruts go there will be worse ones but in truth I have lacked for a bit of consistency in recent weeks. In part that is due to the odds I play at and the fact that March/April involves the most competitive jumps racing of the year. Results would demonstrate that I am clearly happier when the mud is flying also. Still, before the start of this month were were on around +10 points or so for March/April and whilst that is someway below the +153 points (approx) accumulated between Oct/November and the end of Feb I will have worse runs. The easy thing to do would be to leave races like this and bottle it – but that isn’t going to happen and with any luck I will bounce into some kind of ‘spring jumping rhythm’ at some point – hopefully today. The mood will lift once we back a 33/1 sprint handicapper to victory on a Saturday also! 🙂 (ever the optimist) 

It helps here that I have gone for two inform horses at least, who should give us a run for our money. No issues with what side of the stable they roll out of today!

Finish The Story – well this could be the last time I ever back this horse – I have given him enough chances and may well have said it was last chance saloon a couple of starts ago – but I suppose I didn’t realise they had introduced a regional national in Norfolk! I still have stamina reservations for this one but boy does he try, he is always there abouts and there are two massive things in his favour here – i think… 1. The track – There is every possibility that he could get away on the front end here and I like the fact that Coleman has been booked – arguably the best jockey he has had on him for sometime – albeit I rate young Brendan P. This horse is a small/nippy type and this greyhound track could be ideal. I can see him bouncing along on the front with his low weight and on this ground – if he is going to stay – and they keep persevering over distances like this – it will be around here, on this ground, from the bottom of the weights. His last run was also one of his best – he was up there for most of the way and took it up some way from home – if you watch the end, I don’t think it was a case of him getting tired – I just think that is as good as he is. No shame in losing to Any Currency who has some class, was well in, and in the form of his life- and a stronger stayer at a track like that. The second swooped past him that day but he has since come out and bolted up – looking a smart horse. Thomas Wild went passed him late near the line – but he jumped the last couple fine- rather than stamina emptying, I am not sure his legs could go any quicker.

So, I really hope Coleman plays catch me if you can with him here – and at some point can get a breather in. He may well get caught late, over the last two – and if he does then I can’t really ever back him again in a staying race – everything looks ideal here. The one niggle is the trainer – a bit cold – but he is a small enough yard, horses may have had long seasons/be well handicapped – or they may all be ill – at 8s that is a chance I will take – this one was in great form 3 weeks ago, let’s hope he is again here. We should get a good spin, at least until the final two furlongs.

Emerald Rose – well she is in form – and that was a decent enough race LTO, is arguably still unexposed over fences (2/9), likes the track and, most importantly – tries a trip like this for the first time. Plenty of her runs indicate that she MAY relish it – she may not – she may not stay – but that is the chance you take at 14s – she could improve for it and underfoot conditions are spot on. The two wins she had here were impressive, albeit small fields, but as I say this trip could bring out more. Hopefully they race here a bit more handy, tracking FTS – and it will be clear from some way out that one of them is winning! 🙂

Of the rest…Prideofthecastle has an obvious chance but I am happy to take him on at the prices. He is very inexperienced but ran a cracker LTO – looking to get outpaced over 3m5f!- Now, that could have just been laziness and they reach for the headgear here. He has been held up and that is dangerous around this track – at some point he will have to speed up to close those in front and when you are on the turn, fences coming quick etc – that could lead to a dodgy jump or two – it may not – he is unexposed, still in the could be anything category and Pipe does very well here from the limited runners he sends. But he has been well found and doesn’t scream ‘value’. Thomas Wild also has a chance. He stays well and will relish the ground – has his trainer ever been out of form in the last 12 months?? He is banging them in again at some rate. The actual weight concerns me a bit here – he is 0/5, 1 p with 11-9 or more on his back – and he is usually held up off the pace – He is also 0/3,0 places in C3 chases worth 10k+ to winner – those things combined make me wary, and not wanting to lump on at 11/2 – he may be fine, and he is a guaranteed stayer who has won around similar types of tracks before. That weight may get him near the end though- but he ran a fine race LTO and if you like his chance and his price, there isn’t too much I can say to put you off.

Harry The Viking – well I can’t back him again – he ran a fine race LTO but he is just slow now, no change of gears, and he won’t get away around this track – it could be happening too quickly and I am happy to leave him – he may well win somewhere one day but I won’t be on – I have given him enough chances, and around more galloping tracks than this. Nope. But he stays. Grove Silver is becoming frustrating over fences – 0/8, 4 p, and others have better staying form than him I think – he can be lazy and I don’t like repeat ‘placers’ that have yet to get their head in front, in any code. The trainer is in cracking form though – he may run his race again, but should be something better than him that likes to win. Arguably worth opposing on price given those questions he now has.  

Nail M is a slow boat – a very very poor mans Don Poli. In all likelihood I probably won’t ever back him ever again (albeit I have form for ignoring my own advice!) – he just has no gears now- looks like he stays and may well plod to victory but I can’t have him – Harry The Viking may be quicker than him! He is in form though, as is his trainer, and he may leave me with a dozen eggs all over my face – but I can’t back him around here. I can’t really have the rest – I think Morney Wing needs it deep to be at his best and he was very poor LTO having backed him- he did run on a bit, has form around here, and has looked like ‘a trip’ may suit – but if it was heavy he would be more tempting at a price. Another unexposed one though. 

PACE – there are no other out and out front runners here – Finish The Story can track or lead, if he can get it. They had better try to lead all the way here – Harry The Viking likes to if quick enough – but if FTS is bumped out I don’t think he will keep up with him. Emerald Rose can race in a number of places – hopefully not held up out the back this time and ridden more handily.

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That will be it for ‘tips’

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MICRO SYSTEMS

NONE

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS

3.20 Bright – Live Dangerously (7/1<) DNQ

3.55 Bright – Flutterbee (any odds) 2nd 8/1 

4.55 Bright – Mrs Warren (any odds) UP

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

7.25 Catt – Taysh – 9/2 – WON 4/1 (after R4) 3/1 SP looks interesting for Appleby, who does well enough here with all his handicappers.(I won’t repeat the stats from the guide) He drops in class after running well enough over CD LTO where he came from right out the back. I like the fact that on paper at least there appears to be loads of pace and in this ground it could well set up for a closer to swoop past tiring rivals. Soft looks fine and 9/2 looks a decent enough price.

Using the Geegeez Gold reports two horses catch the eye…

2.50 Brighton – Jaywalker – 8/1 – 2nd – Channon/Bishop are 10/28,15p in all races here when teaming up, 6/20,10p in handicaps,in the last 5 years. Channon is also 2/8, 4 places with handicap debutants here in the last 5 seasons. This one has been off the track a long time, so market support could well be significant, as would a drift I would think. Fitness and whether he retains ability has to be taken on trust. 

3.10 Sedgefield – Frank The Slink – 6/1 – UP – that old rogue, Wellforth,who we backed two starts ago at 25s just dotted up. Typical! Trainer and Jockey are 6/23,10p when teaming up here in handicaps. I backed this one at a price a couple of starts back but the money never arrived. After a string of poor efforts where he has dropped down the weight he bounced back to some form LTO and ran his best race in some time. Dropped some more, he finds himself in a weak race, in ideal conditions (stays and ground fine) and more fancied in the market – given the yard that could be significant. 

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That is all for today. Good Luck