Members Report: 03/05/16 (COMPLETE)

*** THERE IS A LINK TO SOME CHESTER NOTES IN TOMORROW’S POST ALREADY***

 

Well I am going to owe plenty of you an apology for only getting around to researching this months ‘monthly trainer’ today – on day 2 of the month. I posted the research up for T D Barron a couple of hours before there was a potential qualifier – Play Nicely – who won the 2.30 Beverley at 14/1. He had been 25s and was gradually backed in – rarely do I not cheer winning 20 points on a horse, (I had 1 point on at 20s PP when 14s/16s everywhere else- a punt that he would ‘qualify’) but I take no satisfaction from that one not being available before 10am this morning- I know many of you won’t have backed him – and if you are a regular ‘monthly system qualifier backer‘, I can only apologise. – In future I will make sure ‘monthly’ research is complete before the month starts. 

I wont be claiming that one in official results but hope some of you may have read/backed him. 

NEW POST: MAY TRAINER HERE>>>

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Meanwhile my ‘spring’ tipping form in 3m+ chases continues to be more miss than hit. Opening Batsman looked like he was coming into it well – and I suppose he ran well enough for 3rd. Court By Surprise was nibbled at, threatened, and then faded. Bob Tucker – well always annoying when a winning tipped horse LTO goes in again un-backed. Bugger. I questioned whether he was good enough- I didn’t think that was the best race LTO – I thought there would be others better in here – I also had stamina questions in this grade and at what I thought would be a stronger pace – but he stayed well enough there – I had concerns about his jumping going RH and a niggle over the trainer form. Wrong, wrong and wrong some more. I clearly didn;t give enough weight to the fact that he was fit, in form and still open to improvement. There weren’t many in here who you could say that about. He was also a single figure price this morning before drifting out to 12s. A review of April will be up in the next couple of days, but that wasn’t the best of starts to May. 

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TIPS

3.30 Fakenham

Finish The Story – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (Boyle/BV/SJ/Lad/Coral/WH) UP

Emerald Rose – 1 point win – 14/1 (Bet365/BV/SJ)* UP 

*prices as of 08.00

As ruts go there will be worse ones but in truth I have lacked for a bit of consistency in recent weeks. In part that is due to the odds I play at and the fact that March/April involves the most competitive jumps racing of the year. Results would demonstrate that I am clearly happier when the mud is flying also. Still, before the start of this month were were on around +10 points or so for March/April and whilst that is someway below the +153 points (approx) accumulated between Oct/November and the end of Feb I will have worse runs. The easy thing to do would be to leave races like this and bottle it – but that isn’t going to happen and with any luck I will bounce into some kind of ‘spring jumping rhythm’ at some point – hopefully today. The mood will lift once we back a 33/1 sprint handicapper to victory on a Saturday also! 🙂 (ever the optimist) 

It helps here that I have gone for two inform horses at least, who should give us a run for our money. No issues with what side of the stable they roll out of today!

Finish The Story – well this could be the last time I ever back this horse – I have given him enough chances and may well have said it was last chance saloon a couple of starts ago – but I suppose I didn’t realise they had introduced a regional national in Norfolk! I still have stamina reservations for this one but boy does he try, he is always there abouts and there are two massive things in his favour here – i think… 1. The track – There is every possibility that he could get away on the front end here and I like the fact that Coleman has been booked – arguably the best jockey he has had on him for sometime – albeit I rate young Brendan P. This horse is a small/nippy type and this greyhound track could be ideal. I can see him bouncing along on the front with his low weight and on this ground – if he is going to stay – and they keep persevering over distances like this – it will be around here, on this ground, from the bottom of the weights. His last run was also one of his best – he was up there for most of the way and took it up some way from home – if you watch the end, I don’t think it was a case of him getting tired – I just think that is as good as he is. No shame in losing to Any Currency who has some class, was well in, and in the form of his life- and a stronger stayer at a track like that. The second swooped past him that day but he has since come out and bolted up – looking a smart horse. Thomas Wild went passed him late near the line – but he jumped the last couple fine- rather than stamina emptying, I am not sure his legs could go any quicker.

So, I really hope Coleman plays catch me if you can with him here – and at some point can get a breather in. He may well get caught late, over the last two – and if he does then I can’t really ever back him again in a staying race – everything looks ideal here. The one niggle is the trainer – a bit cold – but he is a small enough yard, horses may have had long seasons/be well handicapped – or they may all be ill – at 8s that is a chance I will take – this one was in great form 3 weeks ago, let’s hope he is again here. We should get a good spin, at least until the final two furlongs.

Emerald Rose – well she is in form – and that was a decent enough race LTO, is arguably still unexposed over fences (2/9), likes the track and, most importantly – tries a trip like this for the first time. Plenty of her runs indicate that she MAY relish it – she may not – she may not stay – but that is the chance you take at 14s – she could improve for it and underfoot conditions are spot on. The two wins she had here were impressive, albeit small fields, but as I say this trip could bring out more. Hopefully they race here a bit more handy, tracking FTS – and it will be clear from some way out that one of them is winning! 🙂

Of the rest…Prideofthecastle has an obvious chance but I am happy to take him on at the prices. He is very inexperienced but ran a cracker LTO – looking to get outpaced over 3m5f!- Now, that could have just been laziness and they reach for the headgear here. He has been held up and that is dangerous around this track – at some point he will have to speed up to close those in front and when you are on the turn, fences coming quick etc – that could lead to a dodgy jump or two – it may not – he is unexposed, still in the could be anything category and Pipe does very well here from the limited runners he sends. But he has been well found and doesn’t scream ‘value’. Thomas Wild also has a chance. He stays well and will relish the ground – has his trainer ever been out of form in the last 12 months?? He is banging them in again at some rate. The actual weight concerns me a bit here – he is 0/5, 1 p with 11-9 or more on his back – and he is usually held up off the pace – He is also 0/3,0 places in C3 chases worth 10k+ to winner – those things combined make me wary, and not wanting to lump on at 11/2 – he may be fine, and he is a guaranteed stayer who has won around similar types of tracks before. That weight may get him near the end though- but he ran a fine race LTO and if you like his chance and his price, there isn’t too much I can say to put you off.

Harry The Viking – well I can’t back him again – he ran a fine race LTO but he is just slow now, no change of gears, and he won’t get away around this track – it could be happening too quickly and I am happy to leave him – he may well win somewhere one day but I won’t be on – I have given him enough chances, and around more galloping tracks than this. Nope. But he stays. Grove Silver is becoming frustrating over fences – 0/8, 4 p, and others have better staying form than him I think – he can be lazy and I don’t like repeat ‘placers’ that have yet to get their head in front, in any code. The trainer is in cracking form though – he may run his race again, but should be something better than him that likes to win. Arguably worth opposing on price given those questions he now has.  

Nail M is a slow boat – a very very poor mans Don Poli. In all likelihood I probably won’t ever back him ever again (albeit I have form for ignoring my own advice!) – he just has no gears now- looks like he stays and may well plod to victory but I can’t have him – Harry The Viking may be quicker than him! He is in form though, as is his trainer, and he may leave me with a dozen eggs all over my face – but I can’t back him around here. I can’t really have the rest – I think Morney Wing needs it deep to be at his best and he was very poor LTO having backed him- he did run on a bit, has form around here, and has looked like ‘a trip’ may suit – but if it was heavy he would be more tempting at a price. Another unexposed one though. 

PACE – there are no other out and out front runners here – Finish The Story can track or lead, if he can get it. They had better try to lead all the way here – Harry The Viking likes to if quick enough – but if FTS is bumped out I don’t think he will keep up with him. Emerald Rose can race in a number of places – hopefully not held up out the back this time and ridden more handily.

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That will be it for ‘tips’

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MICRO SYSTEMS

NONE

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS

3.20 Bright – Live Dangerously (7/1<) DNQ

3.55 Bright – Flutterbee (any odds) 2nd 8/1 

4.55 Bright – Mrs Warren (any odds) UP

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

7.25 Catt – Taysh – 9/2WON 4/1 (after R4) 3/1 SP looks interesting for Appleby, who does well enough here with all his handicappers.(I won’t repeat the stats from the guide) He drops in class after running well enough over CD LTO where he came from right out the back. I like the fact that on paper at least there appears to be loads of pace and in this ground it could well set up for a closer to swoop past tiring rivals. Soft looks fine and 9/2 looks a decent enough price.

Using the Geegeez Gold reports two horses catch the eye…

2.50 Brighton – Jaywalker – 8/12nd – Channon/Bishop are 10/28,15p in all races here when teaming up, 6/20,10p in handicaps,in the last 5 years. Channon is also 2/8, 4 places with handicap debutants here in the last 5 seasons. This one has been off the track a long time, so market support could well be significant, as would a drift I would think. Fitness and whether he retains ability has to be taken on trust. 

3.10 Sedgefield – Frank The Slink – 6/1 – UP – that old rogue, Wellforth,who we backed two starts ago at 25s just dotted up. Typical! Trainer and Jockey are 6/23,10p when teaming up here in handicaps. I backed this one at a price a couple of starts back but the money never arrived. After a string of poor efforts where he has dropped down the weight he bounced back to some form LTO and ran his best race in some time. Dropped some more, he finds himself in a weak race, in ideal conditions (stays and ground fine) and more fancied in the market – given the yard that could be significant. 

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That is all for today. Good Luck 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

35 Responses

  1. Sticking with Tom George/Paddy Brennan 7.15 exeter best price 14/1 bet365,have good success there over jumps,Speculative bet on the in form Neil King Exmoor Challenge 2.40 sedg,shouldn’t win this but Killian Moore is 3/5 over hurdles,worth a poke at 12/1

  2. One at a price tomorrow I have heard good things about is Gold Mountain, 5.45 Ex. 33/1 available now. Watch the horse anyway.

    1. One for the tracker, maybe, now it’s been withdrawn Martin. Down to run on Thursday 220 Newton Abbot, although the going – the reason given for the withdrawal – looks like it’ll be similar.
      Paul

  3. there is Tara Tavey18:45 Exeter 25/1 temptation

    3:55 BRIGHTON Tempuran looks nice after first look 8/1

  4. A horse that catches the eye in the 3.30 at Fakenham is Emerald Rose,a place where course experience comes in handy the 12/1 looks generous for this 2 time course winner,Tom O Brien usually picks up the odd winner there and his record for Paul Henderson Chasers is quite good,,none of the horses in the 2.30 are world beaters so the 10/1 might be worth a stab

  5. Going to have a punt on The Tourard Man at Exeter 6.45, recall seeing it run a great race at Warwick last season, had a nice e/w at something like 25/1 at Cheltenham Festival 2015 just after that Warwick run and looked set to make up in to a nice Novice Chaser; plan never worked and after a few poor runs returned to hurdles but looked a sour and not interested horse, clearly has ability and last couple of hurdle runs very much better, is incredibly well handicapped on past hurdle form and that’s b4 claimer takes 10lbs off and I’ve had a fair punt each way (for me) at 7/1 as surely up to this class…

    1. great shout young man – couldn’t resist myself after a quick peak and your strong reasoning! Super. Was tanking all the way round, never in too much doubt!

      1. very occasionally they jump off the page, good to see the horse back enjoying it again and plenty to be won next season long distance hurdling!

  6. One from the T Vaughan stable, each way, 2.10 Sedgefield, 10/1 about still, Orchard Park.

  7. Re Jaywalker: I had already backed this due to his Sire’s record at BRIGHTON. 15/48 overall since 2006 (+£12) at SP, but 14/31 for runners priced up to 7/1 at 45% (+£20). Since 2012 he is 10/26 (+£17). Looks a nice combination for today with your stats Josh.

    Micky Hammond who trains Frank The Slink tends to go hot for about a week with his runners. A friend of mine had horses with him a few years back and he always seems to get them to peak for a short cycle. Hope Frank does the business today.

  8. Hey josh, was wondering how best to interact with the TRAINER TRACK PROFILE MAIN SYSTEM BETS heading, is it safe to just put a point on all the horses, like with the micros?

    Cheers

    1. Hi Vincent…good question…yep I would treat them as you do any other micro systems on the blog. Some caution as they are newly researched this year, but then again I suppose the monthly ones and quite a few of the others are as well!!

      I trust the research and collectively, as a portfolio, they should do ok over the next 6 months. Whether you want to start with 1/2s and build up I am not sure…my own approach is to ignore my own advice and go straight in for 1 point win bets! I would probably advise a separate bank for them, or add some more points ‘in your head at least!’ to your micro system bank. They will be around next year if they perform this season, and I will review/refresh every season, so in theory no need to jump in two feet first this year – up to you though! (I have, and we shall see if that will be idiotic)

  9. Thought this blog was decent when I first discovered it, but it’s become a farce recently. No structure to it and just a stream of losers. Won’t be reading again.

    1. I could respond further given the idiocy of your ‘structure’ comment,(its the one thing the daily posts have!!) but I really don’t have the energy and I fear it would be wasted. I don’t know when you started reading the blog, or how you engage with the content, but I was due a bumpy ride post February and that is what I am getting – but the tips are still in profit since then and while I would have liked to be doing better I will, in time. That is betting. You clearly think it is an easy game. Well, it isn’t. The micro systems had a bumpy ride but have just started to hit some form. I am sorry that maybe you have found these pages at the beginning of a bumpy patch – but you should try and ride it out. I dare say you are not alone and I hope you find a better blog somewhere that suits your own betting approach.
      Sorry to lose you Dave. Good luck in your punting journey. All the best. Josh

    2. Dave

      Stick with it my friend Josh clearly knows his horses but i believe he tries too hard trying to please all of the people all of the time. Probably in order to get and maintain as many donations as poss? Remember you don’t have to back everything and if you read his write ups carefully you can often realise something you wouldn’t have spotted yourself and then make a judgement whether to back his choice, lay it or back something else, or nothing. Stats and systems are not my bag really but if the stats are relevant and not skewed by one big winner and a horse is being backed they often do well. Last point if you criticise on here expect a backlash from the ‘sheep’. I think Josh does listen but you need to explain your critism and thoughts a bit more.

      1. Hi Jim, thanks for comment. The donations do not drive my approach – the day that happens is the day it really will all fall apart and I doubt anyone would donate! My approach is quite clear I think, and the structure of the posts is clear – my tipping is restricted to a few race types and the use of stats etc is well known. Just then whether people like that approach and want to jump on board, or dip in and out. It certainly doesn’t suit everyone, well nowhere near the majority I suspect. It sounds like you have found a good way of approaching my stuff, that suits you and your betting.
        There is never a backlash Jim – but if someone shares a polite opinion, and others politely disagree with it, I am sure they will say so 🙂 Valid criticism is always welcome and I don’ think there has been a backlash due to someone sharing an opinion – but the actual opinion may be criticised. I am always listening.

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