Time to find a trainer to follow this month. This is a simple concept really – some trainers appear to get their strings to peak for certain months of the year. We have had success with this approach. Some ‘monthly trainers’ have done very well, some not so good – but, over the year it is hoped that we end up with decent enough profits. Their current form should always be monitored.
When I started to play around with this approach last year I picked a few too many trainers some months and there were too many qualifiers for my own comfort levels – especially with all the other micro systems ticking along also.
So, for this month, I have just picked out one trainer for us to follow. This should help ensure it is a fairly stress free month and if recent history is repeated, we should have some fun.
So…
T D Barron
- May
- Flat Turf Handicaps
- Further than 6f (Not 5-6f)
- 14/1 or shorter (guide,16/1 ok)
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 61 | 18 | 29.51 | 77.38 | 31 | 50.82 | 126.85 | 91.71 | 21.96 | 2.16 |
| 2015 | 21 | 7 | 33.33 | 37.5 | 10 | 47.62 | 178.57 | 39.99 | 3.93 | 2.41 |
| 2014 | 19 | 4 | 21.05 | 9.38 | 7 | 36.84 | 49.37 | 16.57 | -0.98 | 1.57 |
| 2013 | 21 | 7 | 33.33 | 30.5 | 14 | 66.67 | 145.24 | 35.15 | 19 | 2.41 |
This month stands out by quite some way when using the same rules and looking at all other months. That is important for an angle like this – you want it to look as though it is some sort of strategy/approach – rather than just coincidence.
All bar 7 runners (2 wins) had run at least once already this season. His record with those going off 16/1 or bigger is 0/16, 2 places. Those priced 16/1 are 0/6, 2 places – so maybe we should not be put off by those just jet, one may pop up. Using the odds cap, those running over 5-6f are:
53 bets / 5 wins/ 17 places / 9% sr / -23 SP / AE 0.59.
Clearly he has winners over shorter but they are hard to find, systematically. His longer distance horses do best. What with track measurement changes my rules are set to catch those running over 6.5f or further for now.
Some caution should be advised – his record before 2013 in this month was pretty abject – indeed 2012 was 0/21, 6 places – but, such has been the strength of his performance that it would suggest a change in approach. Maybe he just has them more forward now and likes to strike while they are relatively fresh (most winners have had 1 or 2 runs this season already). Or, he may just have different owners, better horses or he is just a better trainer.
NOTE: that as I write he is 0/22, 2 places in the last 14 days, so he isn’t exactly coming into this in form. Hopefully after a handful of runs for the system above it will become clear what kind of month he may be about to have.
Fingers crossed for a decent month ahead for Mr Barron.
That will for for this month. It would be nice if he could add 10+ points to the pot.
***
11 Responses
For David Barron
2May16 3:30 Play Nicely BEVERLEY (Overnight), Maddy Prior At Beverley Folk Festival Handicap 22/1>16/1
3May16 6:25 Chilworth Bells CATTERICK (Overnight), Racing UK Day Pass Just £10 Claiming Stakes SP
Isn’t it just handicaps?
I think he did play nicely … boom
Glad you read that Kevin! I am going to have to owe quite a few people a few apologies for not researching this/posting it a bit earlier than I did!! Idiot. Anyway, yes, that was nice! Took 20s PP when clearly was being backed everywhere else. That will do nicely albeit I don’t think I can put that down in official system results!
As did I. Thanks Josh!
hands up if you had a good look at Play Nicely then left alone
eek
Ah – oh god – I know a lot of people will have missed it due to timing of my post – but you looked at it then ignored – ahh – the point in trainer angles like this is firstly to ignore form! Never mind – I dare say you have left alone plenty of losers that more than make up for missing him! (we have all been there!)
nah, learning curve that one. i like to assess the chances of all system selections and stake accordingly
my justification for leaving was that the only good turf run was when the saddle slipped and left him 21lb lighter!
but then again, should never leave a horse who’s won on a 12 or so higher rating
My hand is up!
handicapper must of had a bet on him also,72 from 85 just 2 runs ago,i havent come across a drop like that before after just 2 races!!!
Twice heard David Barron interviewed recently and he has passed comment that he has a lot of unexposed and well handicapped horses as last season the stable was struck with a respiratory virus linked to oil seed rape growing in nearby fields, I recall similar occurrences for Emma Lavelle and Peter Chapple-Hyam in past few years, definitely worthwhile marking up a lot of his horses on that basis.