Members Report: 30/04/16 (COMPLETE)

NEWMARKET NOTES

I have spent a few minutes of quality time in my HRB account trying to unearth a few stats of interest for this weekend’s Guineas Meeting. They are below, in an online PDF, and with any luck may steer you to a winner or two…(they are fairly basic mind, but still interesting)

NEWMARKET GUINEAS MEETING 2016: NOTES HERE>>>

There are some stats/trends in a developing post. Just click BLOG above, its the first post at the top. 

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TTP CORRECTION…

On Page 28 there is a typo below the main system table. It currently reads ‘Llewellyn has been fairly consistent with this type of runner. Those priced over 8/1 are currently 0/8,1 place’

It should read… ‘Llewellyn has been fairly consistent with this type of runner. Those priced over 14/1 are currently 0/8,1 place’ The system rules are for horses priced 14/1 or shorter SP. 

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TIPS

None. Nothing really catches my eye in either the Newmarket or the Thirsk race. Newmarket – there is still a bit too much guess work there for my liking and there are quite a few young, progressive horses from decent yards who are in the ‘could be anything’ category – and plenty making their seasonal reappearance. Thirsk – the market has been a decent enough guide in that but at the same time I don’t feel comfortable trying to find something and tip it around the 6/1 mark. I should try and stick to the plan of attacking 5/6f sprint handicaps really, so will sit those two out. 

There are some interesting stats in the post mentioned above. Good luck with whatever you may go for. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

3.00 Uttox: 

-City Supreme NR / Horace Hazel (both 12/1<) 4th 17/2

-Mighty Leader (16/1<) DNQ

8.25 Hexham: 

Resolute Reformer UP  / Seventeen Black WON 12/1 > 8/1

Other

K Lee Chasers (12/1<): 4.45 Uttox – Toe to Toe- PU

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: MAIN TRAINER SYSTEMS

2.00 Newm – Niceofyoutotellme (16/1<) UP

5.45 Donc – Canyari (16/1<) UP

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

TO NOTE: I am continuing my Saturday Column for the Daily Punt blog as usual but now the flat is getting into gear it will have a different emphasis – in essence I will be using my stats guide to highlight a horse of interest. Really it is an extension of this section of my blog. I won’t see them as tips on here yet, as it may be wise to track how they get on. But, I am backing them, and I will post the horses up here – I will post a link to the write up if/when I get it and if I have time. I picked out two on Saturday , to kick things off…(Stats guide users should know the ‘way in’)…

1.45 Good – Sweet Selection – 11/2 – UP

3.25 Good – Harry Hurricane – 9/1 – 2nd 8/1

 

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That is all for today. Post Complete

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

54 Responses

  1. Mercers court just got up on the line to end a bit of a loosing run for me over the jumps,am having small bet on Chicago Outfit in 6.55 at hexham at 14/1 and Resolute Performer in the 8.25 also at 14/1,the former reserves his best for hexham whether its good enough have to see,worth a punt at the prices though

  2. I know Mercers Court just got up on the line Gerry but can’t help thinking he didn’t like the turns as lost ground and had to be driven in most of the bends but came back on the bridle after each and found plenty to get up. Could maybe go in again on a more conventional track?

  3. some fun Ribchester to win
    3:45 NEWMARKET
    42/1 or/and nice ew bet
    there are plots that Air Force Blue has breathing problems,but plots

    1. AFB – he’ll be the youngest since Rodrigo De Triano 1992, the last May foal to win it. That makes him opposeable alone imho

  4. Yes Chris a more galloping straight track might suit even better,trainer is in his best run of form right now for quite a while so can expect them firing in more in the weeks ahead

  5. Newm 200 Niceofyoutotellme 230 Waady 345 Marcel (without fav)

    Sun: 150 Sign Of A Victory 340 Mix And Mingle 33/1 EW

    That’s Paul Kealy’s Tips for weekend (not so sure he’s as good on the flat?)

  6. Hi Josh,

    Hi Josh

    Are you staying clear of the 3m chases in the spring? 3:35 at Uttoxeter certainly looks interesting. I have gone for What A Warrior given Skelton’s recent form, good record at the track, the fact that the ground is drying and given the horse runs very well fresh although can see Al Co as the danger.

    1. Nick

      Its been like “Armageddon” in parts of Staffordshire this morning with freak 10 minute storms making drains fill and get very wet very quickly, may or may not have hit Uttoxeter but would only need 1 to stop any drying out and 2 to make significant Going change and seems to be getting worse and more regular

    2. Hi Nick – yes I will be, just no today – weather was a bit unpredictable and I ran out of time a bit to do it justice. I never do well tipping wise when I cut corners! A couple of decent 3m+ chases at Punchy as well – but time defeated me – so have left them all! Al Co is a worthy fav if building on that last run where if got a bit too soft for him. If there is good in the going he should be going close. What A Warrior clearly has a chance also, provided not genuinely soft – and the team is in form. Maybe it is as simple as one of those two. A few ‘winter’ horses still about – hard to know who is over the top etc. Still, there will be some decent summer races to attract.

  7. Harry Hurricane almost in lay territory (having already backed BOG at 9s)…if he shortens a further point to 6.0 I’ll probably lay off my stake and then go back in if he drifts out again before the off. Always a decision to be made about when you go in with exchange prices.
    Paul

  8. Apologies for the tips I put up yesterday. They all ran like they had their back legs tied together!

    The only thoughts I have are 2.00 Newmarket Mutamakkin, a potential improver to a Higher level? 2.30 Newmarket Waady, a 5F specialist I think? 1.45 Goodwood Rayvin Black, should outclass them from this mark based upon its hurdles form. Feel free to shoot holes in these.

    1. No worries Martin. Had a look at the market to clues regarding them yesterday. So was a watching brief for me..
      i like waady too.

    2. Hi Martin, I’ve gone for Arthenus…..I debated Mutamakkin and my pick….M up 2classes A 1+, There he only two bar 1 other who have the same jockey…both won on the going…I may aim for a set profit and back both. TTP niceofyoutotellme…is a cd winner…
      No price Rayvin Black, so may go for Sweet Selection……I think your right about Waady being a 5f specialist and he’s ben gelded so a great choice……time will tell martin…lol.

    3. I am actually very sweet on Intimation in the 2:00 who trainer think is going to be at least a Listed horse and has some high level entries. Plus I think Smullen is a big plus.

  9. Brownsville 4.10 Uttox. came up in two of my saved systems.Took the 12’s last night and see it has now halved generally, but is available at 7’s in places.

    1. Yep he popped up in my HRB account – I think from a system I must have discussed on here at some point, although not sure. Has certainly been well backed.

    2. Nice one chris, followed you in at 7s, which’ll do perfectly fine!

      That’s actually NTD’s first HcCh winner there in a couple of seasons i think

      1. Found the angle, was in a post in early March I think…

        MICRO ANGLE

        Nigel Twiston-Davies
        Handicap Chases
        Horse Chase Wins: 0
        2m6f or further
        NOT dropping in class or distance from last run
        Any odds
        since start 2013…

        48 bets / 15 wins / 24 places / 31% winSR / +58 SP / +70 BFSP / AE 1.91

  10. Hi guys 3 bets to look at from a friend of mine. Mutamakkin 200pm peloponnese 510. 645pm another angel. Good guys.

  11. Another lesser string strikes……20/1 Night Owl….mine was Artenus….nowhere…Well, you live and learn…..

    1. Yep, such a tough puzzle – even 6 year olds who look like handicapper may have him, has found some improvement! Fanshawe in good form and placed in race last year, so in hindsight, at those odds can see why some may have had a go. That time of year – many pulled away chance etc. A mighty puzzle. I wouldn’t say he was second string as such – well on betting clearly – but he needed weight taking off him so jockey bookings insignificant in that sense

    2. Mullins is so well known for doing this. Whiteout won today. Remember when McKinley won at like 30/1 when it was 3rd favourite of 3 Mullins runners in a small field last year. TBF if you looked on HRB ratings they should have been much closer to each other in the betting.

  12. The Romford Pele looks very interesting at Punch 5.35 with Davy Russell booked

    Whilst usually a hold-up horse, was bumped out the front in the National and looked like meaning business until unseating. Interested to see what happens here

    1. good shout Ali, will have a look. Curtis got off the board at the meeting earlier in the week – his jumping has always been a bit iffy mind. Some deep competitive chases there this afternoon.

      1. ooooppphhh!!!! looked like i was on an earth-shattering contrarian winner until the last furlong

        still, tidy profit from an e/w bet

    1. Ah yes, Profitable indeed!! was a bargain at that price and the team of writers can clearly pick out the odd horse likely to go onto better things. Useful info. Glad you were on, cant say I was!!

    1. Yep, I did notice that but still went with him – thought he was going to hand on before the green loomed up! Still, a decent run at decent odds. I cant think he rides many horses there that have an actual chance. You wouldn’t want to back one of his at a short price with odds like that – albeit don’t think he did anything wrong there given way winner did that come line.

  13. No i think he gave him a fine ride,but facts is facts as they say,think he has dropped down the pecking order since days he was riding for the likes of Roger Charlton

    1. I was awaiting your comment Gerry! Was assuming you would be on, as was I. Yep, day rescued somewhat. Change of headgear appeared to do the trick.

  14. Yes a very quirky looking horse josh,sort of found himself in front rather than a battling performance,probably just a on off for him,still a win nonetheless,i’m just having small stakes,no real gra (love) for the flat,biding time to the jumps in sept again,so will be mainly using the stats

  15. Money for the two stats horses 8.25,seventeen black more so than resolute performer,be interesting to see which does better in the race

    1. Ahh missed him, and you did say earlier as well! Didnt even look at the race but that was a good bet, everything was right. Well done. Damn.

  16. Hawkbill, Soul Brother and Chris’s Brownville saved the day, and some more……..I was sweating on a bad day.
    Nice shout Chris…I only got 7’s, but cheers. I had a string of losers…the boom…Bacon saved.

        1. Nice, top work fella! Yep, it is rather good isnt it! 🙂 Not all days will be like that mind, and you clearly like the ‘lost of bets’ approach which seems to be working for you. Onto tomorrow…

  17. Well that wasn’t too bad a day after all haha,the fat lady produced a nice tune at 12’s,well done josh,keep the faith

  18. Seventeen black emerges from out the clouds to make it a bumper Saturday! How did he find that much?!

    Hope you’ve had a good one

    1. No idea where he came from – can only thing the leaders went far too hard/are just not very good. Great ride, clearly got a bit outpaced. A decent enough day in the end!

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