VERY IMPORTANT: Rather embarrassingly quite a major error was brought to my attention in my Trainer Track Profiles Report – and specifically the Handicap Debut stats for PONTEFRACT – I am aware of what I did wrong (clicked wrong box near the one I was meant to in HRB,maybe not enough,or too much, coffee that day! And I am confident that is the only such error)
Anyway, Page 72 is the culprit and it is just the ‘Handicap Debut Stats‘ for Pontefract. You can find a replacement page, with the correct stats, below. Of course you are all welcome to get hold of this one page, whether you have bought the guide or not, but this is the easiest way to amend that error. Apologies again…
Well if you are still not convinced as to the potential power of trainer track stats then well, you never will be. And that is fair enough. But you are missing out.
I was hoping the flat season would see my ‘Stats/Angles of Interest’ section of the blog add a bit more value to our punting day and so far so good.
I put up 5 horses on Monday and they finished… 1,1,UP,1,4… at morning odds of 5/1, 5/1, 7/2, 10/1 (4th)
I also said that all of Adiran Keatley’s runners at Ayr were worthy of note – two more won at 5/4 and 8/1 – I dismissed the first on odds, and didn’t quite fancy the other one on paper – sometimes you should just trust the stats!! (I did have a bet in the end, for small money,due to success of others earlier on)
I do like trainer stats, especially on the Flat! I should have put some in multiples, I never do! 🙂 (again!) Clearly not all days are like that, but it does show the potential. 1 point win on all bets would have left a +11.5 point profit – or £230 to £20 stakes. That will do nicely for a quiet Monday afternoon.
Meehan Maidens: 4.30 Bath: Ma Peek (any odds) UP
A King Flat (16/1<): 4.45 Nott – Paddys Runner UP
Pam Sly Females (any odds)
2.35 Nott: Roxie Lot NR
3.05 Nott: Ghinia – 2nd 7/1>5/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Remember these are NOT tips, just stats pointers and ‘ways in’. I would hope on the Flat that they will become profitable to back blind/systematically but as yet that is unproven.
Using my stats guide a few caught the eye. I won’t keep revealing the stats but if you have a guide you will know why the ‘way in’ caught the eye. This is a more ‘considered’ list, from an initial longer list of horses of interest. I may well have ended up highlighting the wrong ones!
5.05 – Scarpeta – 10/1 – 2nd 11/2 – goes here for Johnston. He ticks a few stats boxes for his type of winners here and has been gelded since last run. Jockey is 2/7,4 places at the track, and given what Charlie Johnston has said in the past (they use jockey/track stats to influence riding plans) maybe that is no accident that he has been booked. (albeit a small sample)
4.05 – Nag’s Wags – 11/2 – WON 4/1 –This trainer does well here and he is also in decent form. He is also 2/6,3 places with stable newcomers 1st time out from other yards in the last year. (that stat from Geegeez Gold Reports) There is a line of blue on oddschecker which would add to confidence at this early stage. Fitness is a question.
4.40 – Port Lairge – 7/1 – UP goes for a trainer that does well here also, and even more so when this jockey is up. They team up with one in the 3.30 but he seems weak in the market and goes up against a few race fit rivals, he is shorter than this one also. This one had a pipe opener LTO over a trip that stretched him and he may put up a more promising performance today.
3.35 – MistyMoistyMorning – 40/1 -UP- Gosden looks to have a hot pot in here but I have seen worse 40/1 shots- maybe he wont be fit but race conditions should be fine and his geegeez speed figure is interesting. The stat is from Geegeez Gold also – Ryan is 3/11,4 places with stable newcomers 1st time out in last year and a couple have gone in at decent odds I believe. He may not be winning this but now the Fahey horse is out,he could grab place money. Maybe. (all the caveats!)
4.10- Mollies Girl – 25/1 – UP- Trainer and jockey do well here. I may want to see some money come, or maybe not a drift, but she steps up quite a bit in distance and has 103 days off the track – one of those strange breaks which catches the eye – could be positive, could be negative. It is only her second turf start also and could be another lively outsider.
That is all for today. Post Complete
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…
I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners.
And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…
Donations…Join The Club…
If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.
So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016, which is out now.
Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also.
I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be.
So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …
You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)
(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)
PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: firstname.lastname@example.org – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you.
ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…
Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂