TO NOTE: One of you emailed in asking whether I would be repeating my Flat stats guide for the All-Weather – the answer to that is yes. I will do something similar for the ‘summer months’ – stats covering same period as the main Flat season, before doing a ‘winter’ version. I will also do one for the Summer Jumping tracks, all in the same report.
There will be a free report (1 AW track,1 Jumps Track), Donations Club Members will get the whole thing for free, and then there will be a small charge for everyone else, if you want one. That just depends on how much time it takes and the value I put on but it won’t be more than £12. I will try and get that complete this week.
This morning I am finishing off my Punchestown trainer stats report for Donations Club Members. I wasn’t going to share any of it but that would be a bit selfish and I am sure DC members won’t mind if I share the odd snippet. So, you can get stuck into the below which looks at Jessica Harrington. If you want the full report, you know what to do 🙂
All stats from last 5 Festivals…
JESSICA HARRINGTON (Mrs John Harrington)
Jessica has had the odd big priced winner, including one at 50/1 SP last year (BFSP 130.00!). Maybe we are best starting with a breakdown of National Hunt Race type, Handicap/Non Handicap
Starting with most wins first…
Non Handicap Hurdles: 25 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 20% sr / +55 SP / +154 BFSP / AE 1.91
Handicap Chase: 11 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 27% sr / +31 SP / +43 BFSP / AE 2.86
- 3/6,3 places with handicap chasers aged 7 or 8
NH Flat: 29 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / 7% sr / -7 SP / -3 BFSP / AE 0.88
Handicap Hurdle: 16 bets / 1 win / 3 places / 6% sr / -5 SP / -5 BFSP / AE 1.15
Non Handicap Chase: 5 bets / 0 wins / 2 places / -5 SP /
When looking at the Age of winners (all runners, all odds)…there is a good spread bar with her 4 year olds who are…
0/20, 6 places
Horse Runs in 90 Days…
Those with 3 only are: 18 bets / 5 wins / 5 places / 28% sr / +94 SP / +203 BFSP / AE 4.39
Her last 7 runners with that angle… 1,1,1,5,1,1,5
Winners at 20/1 x2, 10/1,7/1 and 50/1.
In 2011 and 2012 she was 0/9, 0 places. Very interesting. All winners with different horses. This would suggest this may have become a deliberate method for some of her horses?
Finishing position LTO?
She does well with those that won LTO: 12 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 33% sr / +17 SP / AE 2.4
Those yet to have a career start: 0/14,3 places
Races over 2m5f or 3m are: 16 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / 31% sr / +51 SP / +87 BFSP / AE 3.23
I couldn’t find any other main ‘ways in’, but hopefully some of those angles may point to a winner or two. We shall see. She has hit some really good form in recent days, just in time! (I should add, the profile for Willie Mullins is quite exciting, having found an angle for all of his 8 handicap winners from only 20 bets – we will have some fun IF that repeats itself 🙂 )
*At some point soon I will put all systems we are following in this section into one PDF,with a link, which may help…
There is this post which has links to most of them in… MICRO SYSTEMS MASTER POST
Meehan Maidens (any odds)
6.00 Wind: Jimenez
6.30 Wind: Magnum
Pam Sly Females (any oddss)
7.30 Wind: All My Love
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
There are no main system qualifiers from my guide, which will be posted up here as a ‘monday bonus’ when there are some.
Nothing at Windsor that isn’t already mentioned above (albiet keeping an eye on Meehan’s big priced two in the Novice stakes, race 1 – given changes to Maidens etc)
Ayr… (Paddy Power’s Money Back if 2nd to SP fav is for this meeting)
2.20 – Irish Optimism – WON 5/1 – my Geegeez Gold report tells me that Quinn/Makin are 5/12,8 places when teaming up with all runners here. So, that makes him of interest.
The rest of the stats from my guide. Given Mondays may well be quiet I will look to do more of the below, and we shall see how that goes. Remember these are a starting point, a ‘stats way in’ and I haven’t looked at other runners in the race etc…
My report indicates that Dods is 4/18,9 places with his maiden runners at the track, making Sabrina Brazzo UP – interesting at the price. Dalgleish does ok in maiden races here also.
2.50- Mo Henry- 5/1 – WON 9/2 -Keatley does well with his handicappers here but the market may be starting to get onto them, after last season. We shall see. He has a few runners at the track today and all may be worth noting. This one looks most interesting to me given some decent enough placed turf form for his last connections and the fact he is very well handicapped now. Fallon booked. Interesting.
4.50 – Rock Montjeau – 4/1 – UP- again for the same connections. This one has yet to do much, which makes the fact he is being well backed even more interesting. There will clearly be more to come at some point, and every indication is that day is today.
5.55 – Satellac – 7/2 – WON 7/2 – Trainer and Jockey are 8/43 here in handicaps last three seasons, for +16 points, 31% above market expectations. He takes a massive step up in trip which I find interesting.
LATE UPDATE…have just stumbled across an old ‘Profile’ horse that I have saved… 5.10 NAAS… DOONARD PRINCE… 4th – at this track, over 6f, i this class, he is 1,1,3,1… he has won this race for the last two seasons and has come a long way down in the weights – trainer is in decent enough for and he had a pipe opener LTO. Everything would suggest he may run a decent race and at 10/1 with 4 places may be worth an EW nibble ( I have!)
That is all for today.
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…
I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners.
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