Members Report 25/04/16 (COMPLETE)

TO NOTE: One of you emailed in asking whether I would be repeating my Flat stats guide for the All-Weather – the answer to that is yes. I will do something similar for the ‘summer months’ – stats covering same period as the main Flat season, before doing a ‘winter’ version. I will also do one for the Summer Jumping tracks, all in the same report.

There will be a free report (1 AW track,1 Jumps Track), Donations Club Members will get the whole thing for free, and then there will be a small charge for everyone else, if you want one. That just depends on how much time it takes and the value I put on but it won’t be more than £12. I will try and get that complete this week. 

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This morning I am finishing off my Punchestown trainer stats report for Donations Club Members. I wasn’t going to share any of it but that would be a bit selfish and I am sure DC members won’t mind if I share the odd snippet. So, you can get stuck into the below which looks at Jessica Harrington. If you want the full report, you know what to do 🙂 

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All stats from last 5 Festivals…

JESSICA HARRINGTON (Mrs John Harrington)

Jessica has had the odd big priced winner, including one at 50/1 SP last year (BFSP 130.00!). Maybe we are best starting with a breakdown of National Hunt Race type, Handicap/Non Handicap

Starting with most wins first…

Non Handicap Hurdles: 25 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 20% sr / +55 SP / +154 BFSP / AE 1.91

Handicap Chase: 11 bets / 3 wins / 4 places / 27% sr / +31 SP / +43 BFSP / AE 2.86

  • 3/6,3 places with handicap chasers aged 7 or 8

NH Flat: 29 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / 7% sr / -7 SP / -3 BFSP / AE 0.88

Handicap Hurdle: 16 bets / 1 win / 3 places / 6% sr / -5 SP / -5 BFSP / AE 1.15

Non Handicap Chase: 5 bets / 0 wins / 2 places / -5 SP /

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When looking at the Age of winners (all runners, all odds)…there is a good spread bar with her 4 year olds who are…

0/20, 6 places

MICRO?

Horse Runs in 90 Days…

Those with 3 only are: 18 bets / 5 wins / 5 places / 28% sr / +94 SP / +203 BFSP / AE 4.39

Her last 7 runners with that angle… 1,1,1,5,1,1,5

Winners at 20/1 x2, 10/1,7/1 and 50/1.

In 2011 and 2012 she was 0/9, 0 places. Very interesting. All winners with different horses. This would suggest this may have become a deliberate method for some of her horses?

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Finishing position LTO?

She does well with those that won LTO: 12 bets / 4 wins / 6 places / 33% sr / +17 SP / AE 2.4

Those yet to have a career start: 0/14,3 places

Distance?

Races over 2m5f or 3m are: 16 bets / 5 wins / 7 places / 31% sr / +51 SP / +87 BFSP / AE 3.23

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I couldn’t find any other main ‘ways in’, but hopefully some of those angles may point to a winner or two. We shall see. She has hit some really good form in recent days, just in time! (I should add, the profile for Willie Mullins is quite exciting, having found an angle for all of his 8 handicap winners from only 20 bets – we will have some fun IF that repeats itself 🙂 ) 

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TIPS

None

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

*At some point soon I will put all systems we are following in this section into one PDF,with a link, which may help…

There is this post which has links to most of them in… MICRO SYSTEMS MASTER POST

Other 

Meehan Maidens (any odds) 

6.00 Wind: Jimenez 

6.30 Wind: Magnum

Pam Sly Females (any oddss)

7.30 Wind: All My Love 

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

There are no main system qualifiers from my guide, which will be posted up here as a ‘monday bonus’ when there are some. 

Nothing at Windsor that isn’t already mentioned above (albiet keeping an eye on Meehan’s big priced two in the Novice stakes, race 1 – given changes to Maidens etc) 

Ayr… (Paddy Power’s Money Back if 2nd to SP fav is for this meeting) 

2.20 – Irish OptimismWON 5/1 – my Geegeez Gold report tells me that Quinn/Makin are 5/12,8 places when teaming up with all runners here. So, that makes him of interest. 

The rest of the stats from my guide. Given Mondays may well be quiet I will look to do more of the below, and we shall see how that goes. Remember these are a starting point, a ‘stats way in’ and I haven’t looked at other runners in the race etc…

My report indicates that Dods is 4/18,9 places with his maiden runners at the track, making Sabrina Brazzo UP – interesting at the price. Dalgleish does ok in maiden races here also. 

2.50- Mo Henry- 5/1WON 9/2 -Keatley does well with his handicappers here but the market may be starting to get onto them, after last season. We shall see. He has a few runners at the track today and all may be worth noting. This one looks most interesting to me given some decent enough placed turf form for his last connections and the fact he is very well handicapped now. Fallon booked. Interesting. 

4.50 – Rock Montjeau – 4/1 – UP- again for the same connections. This one has yet to do much, which makes the fact he is being well backed even more interesting. There will clearly be more to come at some point, and every indication is that day is today. 

5.55 – Satellac – 7/2WON 7/2 – Trainer and Jockey are 8/43 here in handicaps last three seasons, for +16 points, 31% above market expectations. He takes a massive step up in trip which I find interesting. 

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LATE UPDATE…have just stumbled across an old ‘Profile’ horse that I have saved… 5.10 NAAS… DOONARD PRINCE… 4th – at this track, over 6f, i this class, he is 1,1,3,1… he has won this race for the last two seasons and has come a long way down in the weights – trainer is in decent enough for and he had a pipe opener LTO. Everything would suggest he may run a decent race and at 10/1 with 4 places may be worth an EW nibble ( I have!)

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That is all for today. 

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016 

I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…

GET YOUR COPY HERE>>>

I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it. Those that have bought a copy have already used it to find plenty of decent winners. 

And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which is out now.  

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

 

 

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

13 Comments

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  • A few angles for Monday – trainers in form – R.Ford 3/3, has one runner 4.50 Ayr Dolphin Rock. Also C Fellowes 2/2. S C Williams has a +61 point win profit at Chelmsford over the last 12 months. He has one runner, in the 4.00, Tamara Love, 25/1 in places. Trainer change, M Attwater has a healthy profit margin and he runs Bognor in the 3.30 at Chelmsford, 16/1 in places.

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


  • What a really bad day of racing and fixture planning, 3x AW, OK CC is a replacement for Yarmouth, but the first Monday with no UK NH and we have 3 AW and Ayr and Windsor – looks a minefield to me so will probably just rely on one or two…

    Ian 1 year ago Reply


  • Saved this in my tracker. MAAREK 6.40 Naas
    All wins on good or softer All wins at 5 or 6 F Strong form at graded level Strong form returning 16days (11days) LTO All 12 wins on a straight track. Naas is straight..9/2 available,.

    Mike Dennis 1 year ago Reply


    • Looks the part alright on a bad days racing, got 5/1 lasnyte

      les 1 year ago Reply


  • UPDATE…have just stumbled across an on ‘Profile’ horse that I have saved… 5.10 NAAS… DOONARD PRINCE… at this track, over 6f, i this class, he is 1,1,3,1… he has won this race for the last two seasons and has come a long way down in the weights – trainer is in decent enough for and he had a pipe opener LTO. Everything would suggest he may run a decent race and at 10/1 with 4 places may be worth an EW nibble ( I have!)

    Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Hi Josh, In regard to your Upcoming Flat Stats for AW, Summer Jumps etc, Just wondering over what period of time will you be covering, I.E. 3,4 or 5 years?, The reason i say this is i feel 5 years is too far back these days, Sure there is an argument for Volume etc but just feel more current Stats reflect the nature of the game nowadays, let me know your thoughts on this..

    Ty

    les 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep I tend to agree with you – that is why my latest guide, the flat stats one, focused on the last 3 years -and so far so good in general. I was a ‘5 year’ stats fan in general, but do think 3 years is better for that type of approach. Things change so much, esp in training techniques, bloodstock etc that 5 years may not take account of such changes and figures may be down to first 2 years, with latter 3 no good etc. That is a long way of saying these ones will also be 3 years!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • Thanks for your reply Josh

        les 1 year ago Reply


  • On the subject of AW Guides the one you produced last year got me a 25/1 winner with the very first selection I found.

    I can’t let it go unbacked today.

    CRYPTIC @ Chelmsford.

    Steve 1 year ago Reply


  • Re Yesterdays Conversation about trainers with more than one runner A Swinbank just had two in the 3.10 at Southwell one was in the post at 7/1 the other 33/1

    Both went off at 7/1 result was the fcast outsider wins @ 7/1 the other 3rd but only seven runners

    Brian 1 year ago Reply


  • ” Oh to be in England “,now Josh’s Flat Statistics are Published !!
    Sadly,I am in Atlanta,U.S.A. from where one cannot access any Bookmakers !!
    It’s not often I wish my life away,but I can get back to Serious Business in Mid-May !
    Any advice for The Kentucky Derby—- except ” Learn the words ” to ” My Old Kentucky Home !!

    John C 1 year ago Reply


    • If you have relatives in Europe you can access josh’s stats and email your sels to get on :))

      les 1 year ago Reply


      • Thanks Les,
        Sadly it puts strains on relationships when they manage to place Losing Bets ( we all have some !! ) and Miss placing a Winning Bet !!– It’s not worth it !

        John C 1 year ago Reply


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