Another jumps season has come to an end and what a day at Sandown.
No luck in the big tipping race but they all gave us a good spin and at one stage or another looked like they may go close. Of course none were in contention jumping the last which was annoying. The Young Master ground out victory and that was no surprise – I very much went against him on price alone really – in 16+ runner handicaps I do have an aversion to backing horses at single figure prices sometimes, and in that race I felt I could make a decent enough case for two horses that were twice the price, plus the other one. That is how it goes and given the profits I have made this jumps season that general approach won’t be changing. But, you shouldn’t be wedded to such views all the time. Well done if you had him. The jumping bets have petered out a bit over March and April, one or two nice winners away from matching the form of December-Feb.
Hopefully you may have backed Menorah to cover the days bets.
At some point I will have a look back at the season, but with around +160 odd points (or £3200 to £20 bets) I think off the top of my head that has been my best ever. I will try my best to repeat that form on the Flat!
Thanks this time to Martin who, as well as his various contacts, highlighted the profile of You’re Fired – he always runs well on his second start of the season he said and he did again this year, winning at 16s>11s. Super.
I didn’t have time to use my guide to look through Saturday’s flat meetings and I have no idea if they helped point the way to any winners. If they did help you, do let me know in the comments! One of the main system bets from Ripon came an agonising shoulder second at 14s.
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THERE ARE NO BETS ON SUNDAY.
No systems bets and No tips.
A day off for me.
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27 Responses
Thank you Josh, again fine ‘form’ yourself! The comments and other contributors are making this a hot blog. I HAVE to view this page before bets are made and good trust in the tips. I’ve personally gone 50ew on most. Leaving me about 6k up in the past 3/4 days!
Thanks to all and happy betting!
Cheers, and good punting that!
Yes, day off Sunday. A horse that has been going well on the all weather and now transfers to turf is Rockwood, 3.00 Musselburgh. 7/1 seems ok for such a fit horse.
If I hear anything good I will post it.
Josh, just to say I’ve enjoyed your blog since I found it in December and look forward to reading your analysis before I get stuck in to the action. I don’t always follow your selections (more fool me!) but I love the reasoning you employ and it has made me look at my own punting – particularly in 3m h’cap chases – very differently. Well done on a successful jumps season. I’ll continue to read you over the flat, where I have much less of an informed view about the action, and I’ll continue to donate as and when. Best wishes.
Hi David, thanks for your comment, and your continued ad hoc donations, much appreciated. Glad you have enjoyed the blog during the jumps season and you jumped on board with the tips just at the right time, even if you didn’t back all of them! Hopefully you are still well in front on those. I want readers to be engaged as possible and that is why I try and present my tips as I do etc – so you can get something from it, it can add to your own thinking and you can then decide whether to follow me or ignore me etc! Cheers.
well I ended the NH season with a right nice touch with the paid service I use tipping up The Young Master and Just a Par, cant be greedy but if they had just finished the other way round…doh…..ONE horse who seems to be attracting a lot of attention from a number of reputable sources today is RITAS BOY in the 3.20 at Thirsk, same Trainer as You’re Fired, has what would anecdotally be a plum draw and had a pipe opener in desperately bad conditions last time, I’m on at 14/1 so hoping for a repeat of yesterday.
He is the Eric Winner Freebie for the day, just managed 16/s @ PP, he’s started to charge £1 per tip now, specializes in sprints & gotta tip more 20/s than Josh!
speculateaccumulate and northernmonkeypunter have tipped him too…
WeighedInRacing had a decent day yesterday and are over 80+ points up for April
New freebie for now and I only recently started to see their posts
northernmonkeypunter??? classy.
Hello Ian I left a comment for you on the last blog. What is the tipster service your subscribed to as I am always looking to add decent sources such as Josh to my portfolio?
Thanks in advance
Mike
mike left a reply on your initial query on prev blog, sorry only just logged in didn’t post much yesterday.
My hat goes off to Paul Kealy, again, not long back I would not pay any attention to any journalist in the Weekender but since this chap come along all change, especially for the jumps but how he narrows down the big race at the five day stage for Tuesday’s copy, quite phenomenal!! & he had Junction Fourteen from only five tips.
Don’t worry Josh, there’s another jump season starting on Wednesday & Punchestown Tuesday, enjoy your well earned break lol.
Yep agree. I have started to read the Weekender (in general I haven’t liked reading too many other opinions about races I like to attack as can cloud my own thinking) – his weekly column this week was very good – and he got the 12s about The Young Master – maybe I will have to start having more of a glance at the 5 day stage – nothing I have ever done before, bar the trends etc. He is clearly a fine judge.
Yep, very little rest in this game!
Rubis looks like a micro bet for Fahey at muss in the 4:30
Yep he is, the only such qualifier today.
Hi Josh – I used the flat stats on Saturday and backed 10/1 and 8/1 ( SP 6/1) winners, a 14/1 2nd and 8 losers so a a very good day. I love the stats because they definitely point me in the right direction but it feels like I’m using my own initiative to find selections albeit you have done the hard part. All the best.
Great to hear Andy, I was hoping they pointed to a couple – yep that is what they are there for – a good starting point and I think they add essential info into the punting pot. One thing about the flat I think – is the sheer number of bigger priced horses that you can pick/that win. Which, is good for us! Glad you are using them effectively
Josh – maybe you can point me in the right direction, I have a hunch, no more than that, that some trainers second strings are worth following over those at the head of the market, classic example was O’Meara with Hit The Jackpot last night (literally); my hunch tells me Hannon juveniles; Gosden juveniles and Fahey and O’Meara handicappers are amongst those t scrutinise, is there any kit/system anywhere that could help to back that up…??
Yep it is an interesting angle – I am not sure if I can in HRB, i can look at trainers records with more than 1 runner in a race etc – and maybe dig into that. Some trainers simply don’t know which one may run better if they have 2 in a race, esp if they think they are closely matched. The claiming angle is interesting and that clearly made a difference on that winner, Hit The Jackpot – so some clearly use that effectively – also, the flat is such a game of fine margins when so much can be decided at various stages of the race , ie the start, position throughout, the pace, luck in in running etc. I will have a look at some point.
Ian / Josh,
Mrs D Sanderson was another last night in the last at Wolverhampton & to throw another top trainer into the ring S Bin Suroor is another who puts two up in races & the second string often wins.
hi josh been a good jumps season for your blog enjoyed reading your write ups and comments from posters looking forward to the flat
gone for one today freight train 3.00 Musselburgh front runner this C/D suits those type of horses on a reasonable mark should be in the places if not winning
Cheers Antony – yep it has been good, a couple more 16/1+ winners since start of March would have topped it off but I won’t complain at those figures and ROI etc – was ahead of what I expected I could do in one 6 month period!
Hi Ian I once had a system that advocated backing the same stable runners with 1point to win the shortest price 1 point e/way the other
look at the top trainers at the track as listed in no of winner order didn’t keep records as such but had some stunning days with winners at up to 50/1.
another way of using this is when the same owner has more than one in a race
The David O’Meara micro – 4YO+ handicappers on the flat turf in April. I make the stats 33 runners, 5 winners and 7 places (including the winners). So they tend to either win or not be placed. It does not sound that good but if you backed all the runners to win you would be 11 points up to date. In some races he had 2 or 3 runners and I have not looked at first string, second string etc., but it seems that a couple of the winners were second strings. Not a bad return with 6 days to go.
Not mine reiterates what you say martin
The table below shows O’Meara’s record for ALL of his runners during the month of April for the past 3 years. Blindly back all of the runners would have seen a level stakes profit, so not a bad starting point.
However if we drill down a little deeper in to the figures and bear in mind the earlier “improver” comment we find greater potential for profit comes from his runners in 4 year olds + handicappers.
These figures over the past 3 years give a good Return On Investment but we have to bear in mind that they include two 14/1 winners, Out Do in 2015 and Hit The Jackpot in 2014. The remainder won when going off in single figures, therefore if we restrict our selections to single figure priced entries we can improve our ROI and reduce the number of bets.
Interesting responses to my query re backing second strings….thanks all much appreciated, I will see if I can set up some paper trades on select trainers and report findings back, the old manual methods still have their uses…LOL