A few decent runs from various horses on the blog yesterday, including a 6/1 winner for the ‘micro systems’ and a couple of decent Perth winners at 6/1 and 12/1. Hopefully some of you had one, two or all of those to make it a decent enough day.
At Warwick… The selection was withdrawn, I assume due to concerns over the going – I suspect they would have run him if there was any soft in the ground, but it appears to have dried out quite a bit. Band of Blood ran much better than recent runs and looked to enjoy being bounced out in front. He ran like a non stayer there. I wonder- and I have just thought about this now,without much thought – whether the summer plate at Market Raisen may be a summer target/option – his only wins have come around that trip and maybe, now they know he can race in front, they will drop him down a bit. He would need to win a race to get into that now though I think. Conas Taoi is a credit to himself and connections. I am not sure if he has beaten very much there but relished every yard and done it well. He is still improving.
THANKS…again to you brilliant readers…this blog must have some of the best comments in the online racing world 🙂 – horses put up, and winners everywhere, all with brilliant reasoning…today’s big winner was Nick who picked out a 20/1 winner at Warwick and then a 16/1 winner? at Exeter in the 6.30!!- and the reasoning was some of the best you will read – the stars aligned! Bang. (and no, I didn’t back the first one, I should read your comments more closely!! Having had a look, and licking my Neil King wounds, I may have had a nibble in the 6.30) Trainer stats can be powerful things, especially when applied to the form of the horse…Beers on Nick!
I have found a couple of cracking angles so far. One of them covers all of Mullins’ handicap winners at the last 5 Festivals and reads…
20 bets / 8 wins / 12 places / +61 SP / + 76 BFSP .
In Grade 1s there is one ‘way in’ which leaves the following stats…
26 bets / 10 wins / 17 places / +29 SP / AE 1.45
There is one simple angle for Jessica Harrington which leaves…
18 bets / 5 wins / 5 places / +94 SP / +203 BFSP / AE 4.39
Donations Club members and I will have our fingers crossed that those angles repeat this year, albeit it is never that easy!
I hope to finish that report today at some point and will email it out when complete. I will also email out relevant qualifiers on every day of the Festival, and hopefully they do as well as they did at Aintree. (exclusive to DC Members)
If you wish to get your hands on those you should join the club below 🙂 Hopefully Willie Mullins or Jessica Harrington will pay for a years’ worth of donations! 🙂
4.15 Perth –
Harry The Viking – 1 point EW – 12/1 – 3rd +1 point after R4
Oh God. Someone call a doctor.
I have been afflicted with various syndromes over the last few weeks. We have had ‘Any Currency’ syndrome, ‘back a donkey syndrome’ (actually that has come and go all season!) and finally ‘Mission Complete’ syndrome. Well, that final affliction returns. (as an aside Mission Complete returns in the 7.25 Chepstow- if he is in the same mood as LTO then he should go well, but he is 11/4 and not the 6/1 we backed him at that day. I will just watch)
Mission Complete syndrome is where you pretty much get to the edge of the cliff with a horse and swear never to back it again. But then, they pop up again and everything looks right, ‘this time’, and you like the price. You just cannot resist ‘one more go’, knowing that this really should be the very last time you ever put money on them.
And so, we get to the old boy, Harry The Viking. One of you, maybe Nick again?, fancied him LTO where he ran much better than I expected. He was in a pace battle for most of the way there and did best of those that were up there – that trip is short enough these days also. He stays well. That cannot be said about many in here – most are unproven and are being backed on the thinking that they may improve for the step up – which some may well do. It was only a year ago last January that he chased home The Last Samuri at Kelso and finished within 3 lengths. He does have a touch of class, and along with his last race, this is the easiest he has been in for some time. The ground should be fine – ran well on Good at Cheltenham for Nicholls back in the day. He also doesn’t go this way round very often, but he seemed fine enough the one time he did at Carlisle. He is also a sound jumper on his day.
There was one final thing that pushed me over the line with him – and that is PACE…I think/hope that he may well be able to get an uncontested lead here – or hopefully by the time they go out for one final circuit he has mastered whoever may try and pester him (Settledoutofcourt might,but he is even more of a boat,Bertie Milan might,but may not be quick enough to match strides) It has been really hard to come from behind around here this week, in part the track and in part the ground – it is easier to get away on the front end when it is decent going. I have an image of Harry The Viking relishing every minute in front – getting into a jumping rhythm and saying to the rest, catch me/out-stay me if you can. It will be over the final 4 furlongs that questions will be asked of the rest- he will just keep galloping the same pace – and if a few in behind don’t stay and/or make jumping errors trying to close – that may well be enough.
IF he runs his race, I would like to think there are not 3 better horses than him in here, in these conditions. There may be two younger ones that nab him – but that is why I have gone EW. The trainer does well with chasers here and the jockey is building up a decent record at the track also.
Of the rest… well Mo Rouge has been well backed and I think I missed his price. I may have had a ‘saver’ on at 5s just now- I think he may relish every yard of this trip – visually that looks the case on his last run – BUT, this is a step up in class, he has yet to win a chase,he is a hold up horse (or was the last day) AND most importantly – I think he ‘dogged it in’ the last day, when Basford Ben beat him – he definitely got his eyes in front of him there at some stage and if a strong stayer should have pulled away – but I am not sure he wanted to go past – and BB looked at him, then dismissed him and pulled out more (if you want to see an example of a horse wanting to win, that is as good as you will find. Don’t tell me horses don’t enjoy racing) Now, that may not matter a jot if everything else has folded – but he may eyeball Harry The Viking after the last and the old boy will tell him to get stuffed! Out of the unexposed ones he was most interesting.
Nakadam beat HTV LTO and did it well enough – this trip is an unknown though, as it going RH over fences and as is the ground. He has also been held up and at some point he will have to go quicker to close those infront – his jumping has been getting better, but on this ground, that may find him out – it may not – he did look like a horse to follow LTO – if he handles all of those concerns without fuss then clearly he won’t be far away. Double Whammy is unexposed but stamina is question and he has been thumped in the weights. He has something to prove as a 4/1 shot, albeit this trip may be just what he has wanted – I am not sure. Itstimeforapint is inconsistent but in form for now – but he does look like a C4 animal to me – he did stay well the last day though and he has yet to prove he can’t step up to this level. In general Russell doesnt do that well here and hers are blowing hot and cold again. Presented ran two days ago and is another that likes to ‘dog it in’ – he definitely headed No Duffer that day, but threw in the towel and was out-battled – he is hard to win with but he will stay – if that run hasn’t taken anything out of him. Winged Crusader is surely the price he is for the trainer alone. I can’t think this has been an elaborate plan- maybe it has and I should just follow the micro system – but he just looks totally out of sorts and needs to find something from somewhere. Maybe he is just the kind that you simply cannot predict and maybe he wants this trip. IF he did put it all together, based on some form, I suppose you wouldn’t be shocked. Maybe some small, just in case, change, given connections. (won this race a few times)
I can’t have the rest for one reason or another.
So, hopefully HTV gets an uncontested lead and gets in a rhythm – if so, we should have some fun, at least until they approach the final couple of fences – something younger/progressive/quicker may get to him then, but they may not. At 12s I was happy to have what will be one last hurrah – I really can’t see myself ever backing him again given his age etc – famous last words.
That will be all for tips.
3.05 Perth: Bell Weir 3rd / Gold Chain WON 10/1 (after R4)
3.40 Perth: Pair of Jacks (12/1<) UP
6.50 Plump: Acajou Des Bieffes (12/1<)
7.50 Plum: Prince of Thieves (12/1<)
A King Flat (16/1<): 5.05 Sand:Rainbow Dreamer
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Perth.. Micro Systems Section…
2.00: G Elliot: Myztique UP
Dartnall: Ut Majeur Aulmes NR
George: Parsnip Pete NR
4.15: NTD- Winged Crusader UP
4.45: NTD – Sybarite (takes a punter with a lot of spare cash to back him – maybe the Scottish air is just what he wants!) UP
Finally, a couple of handicap debutant stats that caught the eye…
3.55 Donny – John Gosden is 6/13 with handicap debutants in recent years at the track and runs Remarkable (9/2) here. Yet to look at horse/race. WON 9/2>4/1
6.10 – Kilbeggan- This trainer, who I have never really heard of, is 2/2 at this track with handicap debutants – interesting – Our Lizzie goes here at 14/1.
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016
I will just leave a subtle link at the bottom of the daily posts…you can get your copy, +60 day no questions asked money back guarantee below…
I will update readers periodically on how the main system bets get on – they have had a decent enough start. Many users on the 20th found an easy 8/1 winner at Catterick (Astra Hall) and a 7/2 winner at Beverley (Alphabetical Order) on the 21st, from a handful of bets. However you use the guide, you are sure to have plenty of fun with it.
And, you can also get a 50% discount if you join the Donations Club below…
Donations…Join The Club…
If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.
So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016, which is out now.
Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also.
I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be.
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(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)
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