Members Report: 21/04/16 (COMPLETE)

NOTE: Punchestown… A quick note on next week. I doubt there will be much/any tipping activity at Punchestown. I find UK racing tough to crack at the best of times and I don’t follow Irish racing closely at all. I don’t really know the tracks that well, the trainers, or horses in that much depth. I should really engage more in it, especially for when it comes to Cheltenham. I will look at any races of interest though and see if anything stands out.  However, as I did with Aintree, I will produce an exclusive stats report for Donations Club Members. There may be some race trends/stats but its main focus will be on trainers. I will be spending some of today/tomorrow trying to unearth some decent micro systems etc. 

Some Stats/Trends for Sandown’s Gold Cup have been posted up. 

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TIPS

4.10 Warwick 

Cloudy Copper – 1 point win – 9/1 NR – appears drying out and no soft anywhere in going – at least saves us a losing bet, clearly they don’t think he will handle it this lively. 

Well I have never been one to be too put off by a drift, albeit if this one was in the green and gold hoops I may be more concerned. I had a look at this race briefly last night and again at 7.30, and was then out until about 9am – having returned and looked at the market I can’t let him go off at this price – he was 5s earlier this morning – 8/9s is much more like it. I suspect this weakness may be a result of money coming for the top two, rather than negativity around him – I could be wrong and he may tail off. They all have questions in here and I want one at a price…

Why him…well he is unexposed, in form and seems to be getting his act together over fences – he jumped really well the last day and won that a shade comfortably to my eye – and from a decent enough yardstick who had been in form. Jonjo O’Neill is in much better form – the best he has been in all season – 8/33 in the last 14 days. He does well at this track and with his handicap chasers. He is also arguably the best trainer of long distance chasers in the race – he will have a fair idea as to this ones stamina and it is rarely a ‘roll the dice let’s see if they stay’ gamble when he steps them up – he clearly thinks at some point this will be his trip. He is also by Cloudings, the sire of Many Clouds and a few others that have relished every yard that they go beyond 24f. Clearly stamina is a question but his price has made up my mind. There are two more areas of concern… 1 the going. Will this be too lively? well I have no idea, and the horse has yet to prove that he wont handle it – he has only run on good once and ran ok, without threatening. But, he wasn’t tailed off. No one can say with confidence that he wont act on it.(his action does suggest he wants cut, but does he need it?) 2 – the actual weight is a slight worry – 12-3 on his back – that is a lot of lead to lug over a trip like this – and in Heavy that would be some ask. But, he is a big horse, and may get away with it on this ground.

All of those reasons may be excuses come 4.20 – and were he 9/2 , 5/1, I would have sat this race out. But my instinct is telling me to have a dart at this price, and I can’t resist.

Of the rest…well if ours doesn’t win then one of the top two should be going closest. Conas Taoi is short enough – but he could be too good for this lot. He still seems to be getting better and was given a lot to do against a front running, proven stayer, LTO. But he ran really well. That was a hard race and there is a chance that 8 days isn’t long enough between drinks – on the other hand he has won after similar breaks before. He could still have something in hand and that last run looked to prove that he stays. I can see why some may have gone heavy at 11/4, albeit that isn’t my style. He will be a worthy fav on what they have done to date and the ground is no problem.

Band of Blood – well he was put in at 9s last night and that soon went. He was generally 13/2 early this morning – that was maybe just about ok,(albeit having looked at it I wasn’t wanting to lump on at that price) but I couldn’t touch 5s – if he hacks up then well done to him. His chance appears to be pinned on that Irish National run where he plugged on – I am still not sure he stays properly BUT if he is going to show something, it will probably be over this trip. However, he does just look out of sorts. He was really poor at Aintree where it was really testing, with emphasis on stamina. He was brushed aside. Mouse Morris couldn’t improve him from his first trainer – 0/6, 1 place, and Newland is now 0/4,0 places with him. (those two are both Alchemists, but this one is still resembling base metal at the moment) The horse is now 0/6,0 place Left Handed. I couldn’t have put you off at a bigger price as I could make a case for him – but not at 5s. That is either just about right or too short in my opinion. He is becoming unreliable. The market does suggest much better is expected today though.   

I can’t really have the rest. I suppose Incentivise and Barton Gift cannot be discounted because we know they stay – but this feels deeper than the two races they won recently – the former really is getting on now and surely something younger beats him today (although I probably thought the same thing the last day!) The latter has gone up in the weights and is inconsistent. If on a going day he will run his race again, but this is deeper than the last race. Whats left have plenty on their plate, not for me. 

So, I am going with one who is weak in the market but who is a decent price now. On paper there are lots of positives and some areas of concern. But, we get a decent price, and I am content to have a dart. 

PACE…Barton Gift, Arbeo and ON should ensure this is no crawl. Hopefully Noel can creep in from off the pace and storm past them all up the run in! Either way he could be a long distance chaser for the notebook and I will keep an eye on him next winter. A Welsh National type maybe. 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

Jumps Handicappers

2.30 Perth: Great Demeanor (12/1<) DNQ 

2.40 Warw: Danzinski (12/1/14/1<) UP

3.10 Warw: City Supreme (12/1<) 2nd

(watch this one NTO..was an eye catcher. All I will say is that Nicholls won this 7k pot and he is the boss of the jockey in 2nd. This one looked to finish with plenty left to my eye!-albeit winner probably had plenty left also and maybe that was as good as he was 🙂 )

5.05 Perth: Ronaldinho (12/1<) DNQ 

5.20 MR: Grimley Girl (12/1<) WON 6/1>9/2 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

The Perth ‘Micro Systems’ were 2/6 and nearly +2 points profit if backing them all systematically.

Perth… Micro Systems Section…

2.00: G Elliot: Buyer Beware UP

2.30: NTD: Bring Back Charlie 2nd 

           Dartnall: Abyaat WON (10s places last nigh, 6s>5/1 SP) 

17/1 CSF…(and no I didn’t do it, I did think about it just before the off for fun,but didnt -hope some of you may have had a nibble!)

3.00: NTD: Florrie Boy 2nd 

3.30: T George: Valseaur Du Granval PU

4.00: McCain  (10/1<) : Witness In Court (also ran at Aintree Festival LTO, and as Tony pointed out, they have a 32% SR here) – WON 12/1- well odds are always a guide with micros, esp when on the boundary, this one hovered around 10s all morning, coming into 10/1 5 mins before race, before going out again.

Results of these ‘meeting angles’ don’t count in ‘official’ results, and if so that wouldn’t be going down as a winner. But, I hope you may have had a go!! – Those Aintree LTO stats looking good now – he clearly doesn’t like the GN fences. 

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That is all for today.

POST COMPLETE

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

39 Responses

  1. Nice end of day with double accord josh,also had a market drifter at catterick from stats,not much value in ntd perth runners tomorrow,probably stick with tom and donald

    1. Yep it certainly was a nice end,did that well enough albeit needed line in the end! Got 11/2 this morning,was he bigger at any point? Ah assume you were on the Appleby 8/1 winner also. Couldn’t believe his price given recent form/fitness etc,got a great ride also. I was happy to have a nibble at 5s.

      1. Double Accord paid 8.19 at BSP Josh, I don’t use bookmakers anymore so i don’t know if it drifted during the day…

  2. Band of blood in the 4.10 at Warwick Josh? Could be too good for these if improving his jumping and step up in trip should help!

    1. Yep agree Luke. On my first 2 min glance at race (before I realised I’d had enough of looking at horses for the day!) he was the one that caught the eye. Trainer in better form and it is his first go over a proper trip,(for Newland)which on one piece of old form in Ireland he needs. They are going to find key at some point,and although he was well beat by The Last Sam at Donny,he kind of stayed on and clearly winner is smart. Do need to look at it proper though! I wouldn’t put you off and evening before nibble though!

    1. Yep,I bet them all to 1 point level stakes,(1 point win) unless i can confidently say I don’t think they can win 100%,but that is rare and I called two KLee horses wrong,plus one for Hobbs…so in general I don’t think and trust my research! Build up overtime. Would recommend a separate bank from tips 60-80 points should be fine. Plenty of time to build up bank and they can be turbulent at times (not too bad mind) from last Aug to Xmas they made about 80 points..hovered around -15 to -25 for 2016 but just starting to click into life again. That’s how it it happens,profits can come in spurts,much like my tips. Most of time you just plod along,and then bang! Systems haven’t had a bang yet in 2016., overdue!

  3. Its oscar does not have much in the way of confidence behind it except trainers record with chasers at market rasen 7.20,7/1 to see whether it can add to trainers track form,might drift more,i like tanit river in the 2.40 for tim vaughen,im hoping its third time lucky for me having backed one of his losers sunday and not backing one of his winners yesterday,bucking the trend as a saver with kk

    1. We clearly think alike Gerry since I also like Tanit River. 4th, 5th, 6th and 12th who were all behind him have won since. Trainer and jockey are 2/3 in handicap hurdles here in the past 2 years. I also like Carson Fort in Exeter 18:30. Agian the form of his last race has worked out well and we know he handles the track. Plus he is dropping back down in grade. Neil King doesn’t bring many here. Sticking with the same trainer I think Holbrook Park in the opener at Warwick looks too big and certainly worth having a small bet on. Trainer is 2/2 in non handicap hurdles in the last 2 years here and won the race last year. The horses best run was at this track and on good ground. Last but not least in the bumper at Warwick Asum is meant to be very good although appreciate we have missed the price a bit.

      Btw apologies for any spelling mistakes etc. Got no power at home tonight so typing this on the mobile so am a little limited.

          1. Thanks guys. That sums up the benefits of using the statistical approach to a tee. I did it last night before it drifted today so “only” got 20/1 since didn’t have access to BFSB who had 25/1. Anyone get the 28/1 this morning? Lets hope both trainer and jockey have a successful trip down to Exeter now.

      1. Well done Nick fantastic spit with Neil King and fort Carson wish I had doubled them .. But hey Ho.. Lov his lil rockafela which I had on lease through MPR and since he was sold have followed him thereafter.. Once again many thanks

      1. That was fun to watch! Traveled really well all the way, jumped super. Won race last year and that Aintree angle added more to pot.

  4. Henderson 7/18 with bumper runners at Market Rasen runs Polly’s Pursuit in the 7.50. Not much of a price at 9/4 but decent strike rate.

    1. Hi Graham. I won’t be posting them on the blog as a matter of course – those that were posted were just a flavour , to give people an idea, and if using the systems in guide I suppose to ensure they were finding the right ones.
      But as you ask, the 1 qualifier is Donna Graciosa…(3.20)

      Depending on how they do this season – first time ‘live’- I may run a service next year where I post qualifiers, or put them in a members area for Donations Club members – but, if it were a stand alone service, there wouldn’t be much difference between the cost I would charge of that and someone signing up to a HorseRaceBase account – so, I would recommend getting one of those if you wanted, and then spend an hour or so adding in all the systems.

      In a few months, 2/3rds of way through season or something, I may post the qualifiers on here, but those that have spent their hard earned on the guide may not appreciate a load of others getting access to those for free!

  5. Hi Josh, another stat update…on NTD…for Perth. 10/11 of his winners under 8yo…….7/11 came n hurdles and 7/11 came on Friday. I find that stat an aberration, almost like he likes to leave an impression on peoples minds, and all his 11 winners wore no headgear [except tongue strap.

  6. D McCain again…..6/7 of his wins….2mile 4f or less…Only ?…6/7 in fields of 7 or less, so clearly doesn’t like to many other horses around.
    Sorry with this late stat….just back from my daily[at the moment] hospital visit.
    How did I miss Double Accord last night. Verdampt!!

      1. Indeed, trainer stats/race stats etc, change in ground – all good stuff and what a price! I missed him, sadly, I should read your comments more closely.

        The 1-2 in race two at Perth also, the stats don’t lie, generally!

        1. I saw that. I wasn’t on given if you take out the LTO winners you were left with 1/14 but well done. Should have spotted that he only lost out by a neck in this meeting last year on good ground.

  7. Hi Josh
    Just a quick word to say how good I think your trainer track profiles are ,already another two winners from it today with Billy Roberts (9/1) and Alphabetical Order (9/4) and with Abyaat winning also it’s turning into a very good day , definitely money well spent

    1. Cheers Iain – hopefully you got the 7/2 on Alphabetical Order which was SP – I had a bit more on the Johnston micro qualifier who got no kind of run at all, had ‘saver’ on winner. …Billy Roberts…I think you have used up your beginners guide users luck there …believe he won for R C Guest, which is Richard Guest, not Rae! I think they are the only really confusing names in guide – after he won I did go and double check stats are right and they do refer to Rae – still – you make your own luck in this game! Well done 🙂

    1. Yep I won’t pretend I got 10s – I didnt look last night annoyingly, was happy with 6s this morning – just heard Dave Nevison say 10s was around night before so hopefully some got on! I was too preoccupied with the Merseyside Derby… Yep, definitely better than a poke in the eye!

      1. So was I Josh…I was screaming at the box…….That **** could have finished Origi with that tackle. Typical Blue Nose, and then kisses the badge……
        I got 14s for Witness in court .last night…another one for the Aintree stats.. Happy days.

  8. Big shout to Nick Mazur is surely deserved Josh!
    Had a nice touch off his two, witness in court and your tip.
    Love reading the blog. I’m in the donation club folks…. And I suggest the freeloaders do join too.
    I simply don’t have time to fully research everything I need to know so you guys help big time.

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