NOTE: Punchestown… A quick note on next week. I doubt there will be much/any tipping activity at Punchestown. I find UK racing tough to crack at the best of times and I don’t follow Irish racing closely at all. I don’t really know the tracks that well, the trainers, or horses in that much depth. I should really engage more in it, especially for when it comes to Cheltenham. I will look at any races of interest though and see if anything stands out. However, as I did with Aintree, I will produce an exclusive stats report for Donations Club Members. There may be some race trends/stats but its main focus will be on trainers. I will be spending some of today/tomorrow trying to unearth some decent micro systems etc.
Some Stats/Trends for Sandown’s Gold Cup have been posted up.
Cloudy Copper – 1 point win – 9/1 NR – appears drying out and no soft anywhere in going – at least saves us a losing bet, clearly they don’t think he will handle it this lively.
Well I have never been one to be too put off by a drift, albeit if this one was in the green and gold hoops I may be more concerned. I had a look at this race briefly last night and again at 7.30, and was then out until about 9am – having returned and looked at the market I can’t let him go off at this price – he was 5s earlier this morning – 8/9s is much more like it. I suspect this weakness may be a result of money coming for the top two, rather than negativity around him – I could be wrong and he may tail off. They all have questions in here and I want one at a price…
Why him…well he is unexposed, in form and seems to be getting his act together over fences – he jumped really well the last day and won that a shade comfortably to my eye – and from a decent enough yardstick who had been in form. Jonjo O’Neill is in much better form – the best he has been in all season – 8/33 in the last 14 days. He does well at this track and with his handicap chasers. He is also arguably the best trainer of long distance chasers in the race – he will have a fair idea as to this ones stamina and it is rarely a ‘roll the dice let’s see if they stay’ gamble when he steps them up – he clearly thinks at some point this will be his trip. He is also by Cloudings, the sire of Many Clouds and a few others that have relished every yard that they go beyond 24f. Clearly stamina is a question but his price has made up my mind. There are two more areas of concern… 1 the going. Will this be too lively? well I have no idea, and the horse has yet to prove that he wont handle it – he has only run on good once and ran ok, without threatening. But, he wasn’t tailed off. No one can say with confidence that he wont act on it.(his action does suggest he wants cut, but does he need it?) 2 – the actual weight is a slight worry – 12-3 on his back – that is a lot of lead to lug over a trip like this – and in Heavy that would be some ask. But, he is a big horse, and may get away with it on this ground.
All of those reasons may be excuses come 4.20 – and were he 9/2 , 5/1, I would have sat this race out. But my instinct is telling me to have a dart at this price, and I can’t resist.
Of the rest…well if ours doesn’t win then one of the top two should be going closest. Conas Taoi is short enough – but he could be too good for this lot. He still seems to be getting better and was given a lot to do against a front running, proven stayer, LTO. But he ran really well. That was a hard race and there is a chance that 8 days isn’t long enough between drinks – on the other hand he has won after similar breaks before. He could still have something in hand and that last run looked to prove that he stays. I can see why some may have gone heavy at 11/4, albeit that isn’t my style. He will be a worthy fav on what they have done to date and the ground is no problem.
Band of Blood – well he was put in at 9s last night and that soon went. He was generally 13/2 early this morning – that was maybe just about ok,(albeit having looked at it I wasn’t wanting to lump on at that price) but I couldn’t touch 5s – if he hacks up then well done to him. His chance appears to be pinned on that Irish National run where he plugged on – I am still not sure he stays properly BUT if he is going to show something, it will probably be over this trip. However, he does just look out of sorts. He was really poor at Aintree where it was really testing, with emphasis on stamina. He was brushed aside. Mouse Morris couldn’t improve him from his first trainer – 0/6, 1 place, and Newland is now 0/4,0 places with him. (those two are both Alchemists, but this one is still resembling base metal at the moment) The horse is now 0/6,0 place Left Handed. I couldn’t have put you off at a bigger price as I could make a case for him – but not at 5s. That is either just about right or too short in my opinion. He is becoming unreliable. The market does suggest much better is expected today though.
I can’t really have the rest. I suppose Incentivise and Barton Gift cannot be discounted because we know they stay – but this feels deeper than the two races they won recently – the former really is getting on now and surely something younger beats him today (although I probably thought the same thing the last day!) The latter has gone up in the weights and is inconsistent. If on a going day he will run his race again, but this is deeper than the last race. Whats left have plenty on their plate, not for me.
So, I am going with one who is weak in the market but who is a decent price now. On paper there are lots of positives and some areas of concern. But, we get a decent price, and I am content to have a dart.
PACE…Barton Gift, Arbeo and ON should ensure this is no crawl. Hopefully Noel can creep in from off the pace and storm past them all up the run in! Either way he could be a long distance chaser for the notebook and I will keep an eye on him next winter. A Welsh National type maybe.
2.30 Perth: Great Demeanor (12/1<) DNQ
2.40 Warw: Danzinski (12/1/14/1<) UP
3.10 Warw: City Supreme (12/1<) 2nd
(watch this one NTO..was an eye catcher. All I will say is that Nicholls won this 7k pot and he is the boss of the jockey in 2nd. This one looked to finish with plenty left to my eye!-albeit winner probably had plenty left also and maybe that was as good as he was 🙂 )
5.05 Perth: Ronaldinho (12/1<) DNQ
5.20 MR: Grimley Girl (12/1<) WON 6/1>9/2
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
The Perth ‘Micro Systems’ were 2/6 and nearly +2 points profit if backing them all systematically.
Perth… Micro Systems Section…
2.00: G Elliot: Buyer Beware UP
2.30: NTD: Bring Back Charlie 2nd
Dartnall: Abyaat WON (10s places last nigh, 6s>5/1 SP)
17/1 CSF…(and no I didn’t do it, I did think about it just before the off for fun,but didnt -hope some of you may have had a nibble!)
3.00: NTD: Florrie Boy 2nd
3.30: T George: Valseaur Du Granval PU
4.00: McCain (10/1<) : Witness In Court (also ran at Aintree Festival LTO, and as Tony pointed out, they have a 32% SR here) – WON 12/1- well odds are always a guide with micros, esp when on the boundary, this one hovered around 10s all morning, coming into 10/1 5 mins before race, before going out again.
Results of these ‘meeting angles’ don’t count in ‘official’ results, and if so that wouldn’t be going down as a winner. But, I hope you may have had a go!! – Those Aintree LTO stats looking good now – he clearly doesn’t like the GN fences.
That is all for today.