Members Report: 19/04/16 (COMPLETE)

Fahey did the business at Pontefract with the two main system bets from my guide winning well at 4/1 and 9/2. Job done. They helped me to a personal +7 point profit on the card and I know some of you were on – Gerry seems to have paid for his guide in one afternoon, hopefully with some change left over for a beer! I backed a couple of others there that didn’t do too much and also Ivory’s in the last at Windsor – he was well backed in the end, but is still running. His other shortlisted one placed at 16/1,looking like the winner entering final furlong. 

Anyway, bar Thirsk (where I lost money but where you could oppose some of them as I did with a few at Pontefract) Nottingham and Pontefract have led the way in terms of demonstrating the power of my trainer stats. Don’t forget the Ellison micro system had a winner at Catterick the other day also, flagged up, at 6/1. They are doing their job so far. 

Anyway, I have done my main ‘sales push’ for now, and you know where to go if you want to try the guide yourself. (60 day money back gaurantee) The link is below…

You can still get a copy HERE>>> 






Any finally, a new Weekly Diary Post…

Now, this post starts with an opinion piece – titled In Praise Of Geoff Banks… I am bracing myself… 🙂 

(It includes an update on results, + a micro angle for Roger Varian..the ‘ladies man’)…



UPDATE: The man himself, Geoff Banks – has left a comment on the post above. Worth a read now !




3.10 Ludlow 

Kilbree Kid – 2 points win – 3rd 13/2>4/1 (how disappointing- I was confident all the way round there until just before the last. No excuses whatsoever,just not good enough on the day. Perfect trip round,didn’t miss a fence,just didn’t pick up when asked. Winner did it well, pestered for some of the lead – a very inconsistent profile,like most from that yard – an all or nothing horse on recent starts and I thought he may want it softer. He was unexposed so entitled to still have improvement in him,albeit didn’t expect him to beat them like that. He received a great front running ride also. Bugger) 

4.00 Kempton 

Present View – 1 point win – UP 7/1>9/2>9/1 (well clearly my ‘good ground’ jumping eyes are still rather rusty. He traveled well enough for a long way and maybe did run out of gas or he just isn’t as good, nowhere near it, as he once was. The drift was a danger beforehand. Well done to Loose Chips, I can’t say I saw that coming – he does like Kempton – I didn’t think he would be able to dictate quite so easily,I thought he was better with cut and I expected something with more up their sleeve to grab him. Wrong on many different levels there. The break has clearly done him good – he ticked all the ‘profile’ boxes. Clearly none of the younger ones were any good. All credit to the horse and connections, what a game little beast. Having followed him a couple of times this season, that hurts a little bit! The beginning of the jumps season took a while to heat up,then we burst into life in the middle, and now we are tapering slowly again towards the end! Maybe it is time for some flat action)




3.10 Ludlow 

Kilbree Kid – 2 points win – 13/2 (SkyBet/PP/Betway/Betbright) 6/1 (general)*

*prices as of 07.18

I believe this horse was around 14/1 for a short time late yesterday afternoon, so well done if you got some of that. I only ever saw about 7/1 from when I started to glance at cards and having stared at this, slept on it, and thought about it some more this morning – 13/2, or even 6/1 is still a decent price – clearly not as much value as 14s, but I still think he is a couple of points too big. I think I have got, what I shall phrase, ‘Any Currency syndrome’ – a level of confidence and anticipation where, baring accidents, we should have plenty of fun. 

The other thing to say is that this bet seems a bit too good to be true – but I can’t deny what is in front of my eyes. He simply has an outstanding chance… Why?…

Well, he won this race last year off OR121 (comfortably beating King Massini in the process,who races off a higher mark) and comes here off OR 117. In between that run and this he hit a mark off OR 134. He also NEEDs good ground I think, to be at his best – you can put a line through a lot of his soft ground/heavy ground runs. Tom George continues in decent nick and when teaming up with Brennan they are deadly around here, in handicap chases. And finally – we had to see signs last time out that he was coming back to himself, coming back to form. And he did. He traveled and jumped really well the last day – probably the best he has since he followed up last year, at Perth. The ground was soft there (they had heavy rain on ‘good ground’ but that certainly wasn’t good) and it was also over  trip he may not stay – and in any case, I should think this race was at the front of their minds. He was looked after there, but he should be spot on here. He usually tracks the pace and there is plenty of it in here, on paper at least. I expect Brennan to hug that rail, or maybe give him daylight outside, creep around in 4t/5th and storm away up the run-in. He relishes these conditions and at his best, now has a wheelbarrow full of lead up his sleeve. As you can hopefully see, it just all looks perfect for him. Every box is ticked that you could want in a handicap chaser, lining up in a race like this. He then has the benefit of lining up against plenty that have questions…

All bar the favourite maybe but he is a short price for an inconsistent horse, who may be better on soft (although form on good), who needs to step up to this class, who can jump to the left and has to prove himself in a field of this size, over fences. So, he has a few questions. Clearly he was impressive the last day – but they were a rather mediocre bunch. He is unexposed and entitled to come on again but he is the type of 11/4 shot you have to regularly take on if you want to win long term at this game. They bolt up every now and then, and I just hope that isn’t today! 

Richard Johnson is also a good form guide in this, and he is usually (but not always) a decent judge. I think he could have ridden Dreamsoftheatre or Lord Grantham if he had wanted. The former was poor LTO in pretty much ideal conditions I think- he is well handicapped with the claim but has no chance if he sulks like he did LTO. Lord Grantham is now 0/9,0 places over fences – I am not sure what kind of place I have to get myself into to back one like that – but safe to say I don’t find myself there this morning! Daly’s record with handicappers isnt the best around here either. 

Of the rest – well good old Kings Massini lines up but is well held by the selection on last years form, and if the selection runs his race, I see no reason for that to be overturned. He did run really well LTO after a break though and should not be too far behind KK. Thoonavolla is the same price as KK and I am not sure why – clearly he is unexposed but he has been winning weak races and he now goes up in trip. He has that to prove. He may relish (not so sure) but does need to step up. His jumping was scrappy LTO also and in this big field will be put under pressure. The Curtis horse now has plenty to prove also. I would not be shocked if Midnight Appeal ran into a place – while a poor enough Hunter Chase LTO he ran on well there over an inadequate trip and has form back in the day to mix it. He is 11 now, and this jockey could have better form figures over regulation fences – but the trainer is in form and he may nick 3rd or something – if building on that last run. Strumble Head would have had a bit more attention if young Bowen jnr hadn’t jumped ship on the 3rd fav. I don’t think he is quite good enough for this level now but maybe they are plotting a summer target for him. He is running as if he may still have a race in him – I can’t think that is today though. Captain Flash won a weak race LTO and this is much tough and likewise with the Vaughan horse – he is inconsistent and I struggle to see him being good enough against some of these at their best. URD is out of form and well held behind the fav. No. 

This race should be going to one of the top 3 in the market (or Kings Massini if they all flop!) and KK looks to be the bet. Everything makes sense and with a clear round I think he may well bolt up here. Whatever happens, backing this type, over time, (albeit they don’t quite come what appears to be ‘this perfect’ very often) when all these boxes have been ticked, will ensure we will continue to do OK. 🙂 

PACE…Bucking The Trend/Captain Flash/Relentless Dreamer all like to be up there. Strumble Head, Lord Grantham,Express D B, UDR don’t like to be far away. This race should be truly run. KK can track the pace or be held up – either way it should set up well for him. 


4.00 Kempton 

Present View – 1 point win – 7/1 (general – PaddyP – money back is 2nd to SP fav) *

*price as of 08.57

I am happy to take a chance on this one at 7/1 – clearly he is the best horse in the race on all known form for me – his runs at the Festival and Cheltenham in general marking him out as a smart horse. Clearly he has lost his way a bit but he returned to some kind of form LTO – very much seen as a comeback run. If he runs up to his best  he is just much better than these- and I can’t see any of the more unexposed ones improving to match him. Now, the one main question is clearly stamina. Will he stay? Well, for me he has yet to prove that he wont. Firstly he has good ground (which by Presenting you would think he would relist) and he gets a flat track – If he is going to stay it will be a around this track. He also always ‘stayed on’ at Cheltenham over 2m4f/2m5f – and one in a fiercely run Festival handicap – around here this won’t feel much further than that. He is also getting older and maybe with age he may stay a bit further. There are reasons there to think he may stay this trip – he may not of course, but at 7s, given his back class and the fact he is still unexposed (only 10th chase run of his life) I was happy to take a chance. The actual weight is a question also but he won easily at MR carrying 11-8 and I would hope the extra 4lb wont inconvenience him. I am unconcerned by his handicap mark – I won’t be using that as an excuse I don’t think given his profile. 

Of the rest… Well Port Melon wouldn’t be this price if not trained by Nicholls and there was everything surrounding his late championship charge. Clearly his string our bouncing and this one is very unexposed, and still in the ‘could be anything’ category. But for me, 8s is short for one who is inconsistent, may have metal issues, and whose form as yet doesnt match up to much. That win around here was a weak race, nothing has come out of it and won since – 0/16 to date. I wont fall off my seat if/when  he wins but I am struggling to take 5/1 about his chance. Harrys Farewell – I have backed him once but he is a dodgy jumper who needs to tidy that up – maybe he will do that but there will be no hiding place here – he is a hold your breath type at every fence and has a break to overcome. I was happy to leave him at the price, albeit he is unexposed. Loose Chips is a grand old servant but wont get an easy lead here and his mark is not moving. He is open to attack from anything still progressing or that has something in hand. I am struggling to make a case for the rest. 

PACE…plenty like to get on with it in here – Loose Chips, Valadom,Pantxoa,Harrys Farewell,Wizards Bridge and even Present View can be up there – Hopefully Powell runs in the front third (the place to be around here and you do need to be up there turning in, usually) and may track a fast pace – hopefully he doesn’t track a dodgy jumper – there are a few around here. 

Hopefully this one can get back on track and show his class. There is still more to come from him at some point and if he stays this well then that will open up new targets next season. 


That is all for Tips 



April Trainer (16/1<)

2.00 Kemp – Threebarmymen – 2nd 10/1  (1/2L, painful for win only bettors!!-that’s me)

3.40 Ludlow – Miss Serious – UP



Nothing today. (Yet to look through Brighton card using my stats- I will highlight the odd thing of interest every now and then, but not today, time is getting on) 





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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

54 Responses

  1. Gamble at Wolves tomorrow, 4.55, So Its War. 6/1 now gone and dropping. Dalgleish the trainer, have not looked at his stats.

    1. Surprised at that, Argent Knight in the 2:20 is more of a bet for me under a system I call ‘The Dalgliesh Switcheroo’ – basically he does fantastically well with horses he picks up from other trainers first time out…

      1. Just checked my stats for that system in the last 365 days it is 6/20 for a 16 point profit at BSP – BUT 10/20 win and place with a 40 point profit…just saying 🙂

      2. yes the So its War thing has not materialised? A bit odd as I was told it would be backed by someone who usually knows.

  2. Josh
    What do you call “main system bets”?
    I had Spring Offensive & Arcano Gold in a double and 2 singles. I forgot I had backed AG and backed it again. DOH!!!!
    Through a bit of loose change at some of the others.

    Many thanks for the PERTH stats and trends. Looks terrific. Will be there on wed and friday. Free entry wed for over 60’s.
    Stand out V Dartnell 4/5 LTO , NTD/R Hatch combo.

    I will be joining the donations club at the end of the week.

    1. Well done Mike…yep ‘main system bets’ referred to those two Fahey ones – by that I meant the ones from the ‘trainer micro system’ from the Guide – nearly all tracks have one such trainer micro ‘system’ – a few have none while some others have two – So, you backed the most on the right ones, in that sense – but that is just my opinion. The rest of the stats from the guide I refer to as micro ‘angles’ – not confusing at all eh! Those two were referred two as being from the micro system for that track.

      Perth – yep, with any luck the same names will be filling up the winners enclosure, we shall see though!

  3. Yes hick hick,think i had enough now,like i said earlier your stats are too cheap,will be a little more cautious tomorrow as one of the trainers has yet to saddle a winner so far but that could change tomorrow,im having an interest on kilbree lad in 3.10 ludlow for the George/Brennan combo.Thy are back at a happier hunting ground tomorrow,im hoping they can have a last hurrah here.Richard Newland saddles the fav but its too short for my liking.7/1 still available but its red across most bookmakers

    1. I very much agree with Gerry on Kilbree Kid although slightly kicking myself for not grabbing the 14/1 it opened at. Looks to have prime conditions and that George/Brennan combo at Ludlow is deadly. (50% win/82% place in the past 2 years from 22 runners)

      The other I like is Theatre Star in the 16:00 at Kempton. Back below his last winning mark and in a class 3 for the first time since he won off a 1lb lower mark.

      1. Yes you and me both – definitely missed that price now! He does have everything in his favour, back down to winning mark, won race last year, must have good in going. Looks likely to run a big race, yet to see if anything stands out at a price.

          1. Ah yes, but we all know it never goes quite to plan dont we! On paper, in a 3m+ handicap chase, it really doesnt get any better I don’t believe. Money continues to pile in. Needs luck in running, big field etc. Exciting.

  4. Ladbrokes are now offering BOG plus. Ie takeva price say 4/1 and it dfifts to 5/1 you get paid 5/1 and the next price up ie 11/2

    1. Alas, the beers will be on you John!! 🙂 Good Luck. (is that in context that you will have bigger bets when the flat gets going properly??)

    2. wish I got there when you did!

      last run was very encouraging. travelled well a long way considering he doesnt get the distance or going

  5. I hope to have plenty bigger if my accounts dont get closed. I was restricted to loose change by Ladbrokes after 2 losing bets(£100) How does that work!
    Makes me sick when their reps come on tv saying they have layed thousands. All lies
    I told them what I thought of them and closed the account.

    1. Try Bet365 and Paddy Power. They tend to let me have £500 on. Ladbrokes restrict most people. I managed it in my first week of having an online account.

      1. Bet365 have been brilliant. I have had several big wins from them but never any problems.They have given me many free bets as well. I never rush to withdraw any large amounts after a good win. I think that helps.
        Paddy Power restricted me for virtually no reason. I closed that account.

        1. paddy has been ok with me and let me win a fair few quid. Ladbrokes, Betfred and Betfair don’t allow me much on horses but let me go unlimited on Football? Very odd.

  6. Right Ali.
    They must have been well pleased at Haydock. Would have just about won at 3 miles.He got dropped 4lb as well. That was not the day though.
    It’s tomorrow. I hope.

  7. Northumberland trainer Simon Waugh sends 2 to Kempton tomorrow. Only a small trainer so seems strange.

    1. Bambi Du Noyer won a lot of races in France but 120 looks like a harsh rating, having to carry top weight. Especially as Callum Bewley can’t claim off anything in this race – unless you take that as a sign of confidence?

      1. From my limited view of stats for long distance travellers it does not seem to be a worthwhile angle to take, unless they are strongly backed I guess?

        1. His other horse at Kempton used to be trained by David Pipe so I am guessing the owners are based closer to Kempton than the wilds of Northumberland…where I am 🙂

  8. I will be going to Ludlow today, looks a cracking card. Lovely sunny morning, no rain forecast and not much dew overnight so by off time should be Good to Soft at worst, drains very quickly there as sand based and if they can find some fresh ground round the top bend in particular, where they have little scope to change lines due to bunkers; it should be no excuses for good ground horses.

    1. The Chase course is now Good, Good to Soft in places. They say the Hurdle course is likely to be the same come racetime.
      Should be perfect ground.
      Wish I was going.

      1. Can see why you ‘unloaded’ on KK John – on paper it really doesn’t come much better. Let’s see if the plan can be pulled off! GL. Yep should be no issues with the ground whatsoever.

  9. As well as the 2 above I have had a 0.5pt win on Urban Gale in the 18:35 at Sedgefield since he looked overpriced.

  10. Age restriction! just cant bet the 15yo (yes fifteen!) 6.50 Bri . Won the race as a 13 yo though (would have said same thing at that age too)

    1. Megalala – what a hero! First ran in a NHF race at Fontwell in April 2005…. Considering he’s won 8 times round Brighton, and the last win was only last October he may still have some puff left to get round there….

  11. Just had a look at Brighton using your excellent Guide Josh, don’t have a benny at me guys if I have interpreted it wrongly but so far have extracted…Swell Hill in the 4.50; Fairy Mist in the 5.20; Port Lairge/Live Dangerously in the 6.20 and Megalala in the 6.50, further check/cross check on form and conditions makes Fairy Mist the most appealing to me.

    1. Good stuff Ian…yep yet to look but will do…as we are in ‘promotion’ mode I don’t mind you listing whatever you pick out in next week or so – but don’t do it too regularly as a) those that have spent their hard earned on it may be annoyed b) those that havent won’t see the need to haha. Good Luck

      I should add – once I get the forum set up – which will be exclusive for Donations Club members i suspect, that is just teh kind of daily discussion thread that I would expect to take place, with any luck.

  12. From what I can see, Bridger is 4/69 in Brighton Handicaps in the month of April since 2003, and three of those were in the same year, 2014..

  13. yeah i thought Port Lairge 6.20 Bri looked ok at 10/1. Been running at Bri alot is 4 from 8 at the track and won on soft a couple of times also. Trainer is 2 from 6 so far this season aswell.Trying an extra furlong this time may bring out some improvement. Loving the guide Josh. Good luck

  14. For some reason shantou magic was in my alerts and I couldn’t think why but he was 5 from 5 on sharp tracks before this season.he’s now at sharp Kempton and down 12lb from his first run of the season and lto ran his best race of this season over a trip also possible to 11-1 he looks primed to be competitive in this class 3 chase.

    1. Take your point Rob but I found the jockey booking odd – If confidence in his chance would have thought someone else would be on – one of his more regular pilots – but that is an aside – I was concerned that his chase form has so far been in small field, weak chases, and he does need to step up – take point about track preference but even with that he hasn’t been in great form. I was happy to take him on, albeit there will be more to come from him at some stag and if top 3 or 4 in market fail, he could well pick up the pieces. I personally couldn’t have him, but I am wrong, a lot!

    2. Ditto rob, but not tor Shantou magic…..mine was a spit job. I’ve been recovering after an operation…..and yesterday looked through my alerts…….Lady Markby popped up, but why, I just couldn’t tell you, so I had a minimum 1/4 point interest bet….betfair paid 21s on the win….and left me sick. I should keep better notes….moral of the story. sick.

  15. at work so cant access my laptop as I would of written it down why I put him in the thinking sharp track but also small field like you say is valid ,but also he seems best early and late season ,he as awful form in December and January but march and april as wins as well as October/november .I failed to noticed noel fiehly on the other runner was looking out for will Kennedy whos got one ride at another track.

  16. I like Montbazon Kemp 4.30 today. A previous Supreme novice 4th and a County hurdle 3rd in his time, this horse warrants a second look now fitted with blinkers for the first time. clearly has been frustrating recently, so hoping for a Solar Impulse. Drifting in the betting mind. Are there any stats on horses that are fitted with first time headgear?

    1. Hi James…stats for headgear are a funny thing – in terms of generalities they are a bit pointless, and in truth a lot have no idea how a horse will react when they are added. Most horses don’t respond and it doesn’t help.
      You can look at trainer ways in – and I think Nicholls has a good record with 1st time headgear for example. There can be ‘breeding’ ways in also – recalcitrant genes may be passed on – take War Front’s offspring – not sure on stats, and not something I have researched myself, but think O’Brien had a decent record with headgear, and a few on progency of that sire.
      It is a tricky one – in part it is just guesswork, and it can work the other way. I remember when I tipped up Le Reve – he was in first time blinkers – the trainers record with such an approach was shocking, and if just looking at that you would have left the horse. I don’t really get hung up on it now, not as a stand alone angle. I will take note if Nicholls adds some (didn’t with Solar Impulse -and it didn’t work NTO for him at Ayr) or mark a horse if there is a change ‘doing something different’ – Headgear may well be what Montbazon needs – and if you like the price etc and can make a case, go for it. Never let a drift put you off having something on!

    2. Universal Stats for first time blinkers are awful – last 3 National Hunt seasons 1382 bets -128 winners -9.26% strike rate -319.3 loss at BSP. Alan King is 0/9 when he’s tried it before, which is not a huge sample admittedly but also shows how reluctant he is to try it in the first place!

  17. With the favourite struggling it looked good for Kilbree Kid but very poor effort in the end. Everything looked right but races are not won on paper.
    Cant see why it would be any better next time out. Maybe one to forget.
    Hope the Flat season is better.

  18. Hi Josh,

    I cant believe Loose Chips won that one as was certainly one of the last horses I would have picked. Not sure how much to take out of that race given half the field fell. Interesting that both the Tizzard runners were backed considerably near the off. (15/2 into 9/2 and 16/1 into 9/1) Clearly some sort of confidence there.

    1. Hi Nick, yep still scratching my head, even more so on that ground (0/7,1 place when good in going in handicaps) albeit how many of those runs in prime conditions not sure – my heart sank a bit when Noel was able to do as he pleased – got a great ride, filled him up at some point I think as won going away after the last. It did help that one pace pusher fell at first,others tried to match him and made errors. On other hand I knew a few would fluff lines and many were dodgy jumpers – but yes, as you say, I didn’t quite expect him to do that – he has bumped into a mediocre bunch of unexposed types there – a group that I clearly thought had more ability. Annoying when an old fav goes in at a decent price with not a penny on. But, that’s racing. I do think my brain needs a rest now mind!

      1. Yep have posted about that on tomorrow’s post…although I keep hearing mixed reports (on Twitter admittedly) as to whether he is actually still with us. Hopefully they have saved him.

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