Fahey did the business at Pontefract with the two main system bets from my guide winning well at 4/1 and 9/2. Job done. They helped me to a personal +7 point profit on the card and I know some of you were on – Gerry seems to have paid for his guide in one afternoon, hopefully with some change left over for a beer! I backed a couple of others there that didn’t do too much and also Ivory’s in the last at Windsor – he was well backed in the end, but is still running. His other shortlisted one placed at 16/1,looking like the winner entering final furlong.
Anyway, bar Thirsk (where I lost money but where you could oppose some of them as I did with a few at Pontefract) Nottingham and Pontefract have led the way in terms of demonstrating the power of my trainer stats. Don’t forget the Ellison micro system had a winner at Catterick the other day also, flagged up, at 6/1. They are doing their job so far.
Anyway, I have done my main ‘sales push’ for now, and you know where to go if you want to try the guide yourself. (60 day money back gaurantee) The link is below…
Any finally, a new Weekly Diary Post…
Now, this post starts with an opinion piece – titled ‘In Praise Of Geoff Banks‘… I am bracing myself… 🙂
(It includes an update on results, + a micro angle for Roger Varian..the ‘ladies man’)…
UPDATE: The man himself, Geoff Banks – has left a comment on the post above. Worth a read now !
Kilbree Kid – 2 points win – 3rd 13/2>4/1 (how disappointing- I was confident all the way round there until just before the last. No excuses whatsoever,just not good enough on the day. Perfect trip round,didn’t miss a fence,just didn’t pick up when asked. Winner did it well, pestered for some of the lead – a very inconsistent profile,like most from that yard – an all or nothing horse on recent starts and I thought he may want it softer. He was unexposed so entitled to still have improvement in him,albeit didn’t expect him to beat them like that. He received a great front running ride also. Bugger)
Present View – 1 point win – UP 7/1>9/2>9/1 (well clearly my ‘good ground’ jumping eyes are still rather rusty. He traveled well enough for a long way and maybe did run out of gas or he just isn’t as good, nowhere near it, as he once was. The drift was a danger beforehand. Well done to Loose Chips, I can’t say I saw that coming – he does like Kempton – I didn’t think he would be able to dictate quite so easily,I thought he was better with cut and I expected something with more up their sleeve to grab him. Wrong on many different levels there. The break has clearly done him good – he ticked all the ‘profile’ boxes. Clearly none of the younger ones were any good. All credit to the horse and connections, what a game little beast. Having followed him a couple of times this season, that hurts a little bit! The beginning of the jumps season took a while to heat up,then we burst into life in the middle, and now we are tapering slowly again towards the end! Maybe it is time for some flat action)
Kilbree Kid – 2 points win – 13/2 (SkyBet/PP/Betway/Betbright) 6/1 (general)*
*prices as of 07.18
I believe this horse was around 14/1 for a short time late yesterday afternoon, so well done if you got some of that. I only ever saw about 7/1 from when I started to glance at cards and having stared at this, slept on it, and thought about it some more this morning – 13/2, or even 6/1 is still a decent price – clearly not as much value as 14s, but I still think he is a couple of points too big. I think I have got, what I shall phrase, ‘Any Currency syndrome’ – a level of confidence and anticipation where, baring accidents, we should have plenty of fun.
The other thing to say is that this bet seems a bit too good to be true – but I can’t deny what is in front of my eyes. He simply has an outstanding chance… Why?…
Well, he won this race last year off OR121 (comfortably beating King Massini in the process,who races off a higher mark) and comes here off OR 117. In between that run and this he hit a mark off OR 134. He also NEEDs good ground I think, to be at his best – you can put a line through a lot of his soft ground/heavy ground runs. Tom George continues in decent nick and when teaming up with Brennan they are deadly around here, in handicap chases. And finally – we had to see signs last time out that he was coming back to himself, coming back to form. And he did. He traveled and jumped really well the last day – probably the best he has since he followed up last year, at Perth. The ground was soft there (they had heavy rain on ‘good ground’ but that certainly wasn’t good) and it was also over trip he may not stay – and in any case, I should think this race was at the front of their minds. He was looked after there, but he should be spot on here. He usually tracks the pace and there is plenty of it in here, on paper at least. I expect Brennan to hug that rail, or maybe give him daylight outside, creep around in 4t/5th and storm away up the run-in. He relishes these conditions and at his best, now has a wheelbarrow full of lead up his sleeve. As you can hopefully see, it just all looks perfect for him. Every box is ticked that you could want in a handicap chaser, lining up in a race like this. He then has the benefit of lining up against plenty that have questions…
All bar the favourite maybe but he is a short price for an inconsistent horse, who may be better on soft (although form on good), who needs to step up to this class, who can jump to the left and has to prove himself in a field of this size, over fences. So, he has a few questions. Clearly he was impressive the last day – but they were a rather mediocre bunch. He is unexposed and entitled to come on again but he is the type of 11/4 shot you have to regularly take on if you want to win long term at this game. They bolt up every now and then, and I just hope that isn’t today!
Richard Johnson is also a good form guide in this, and he is usually (but not always) a decent judge. I think he could have ridden Dreamsoftheatre or Lord Grantham if he had wanted. The former was poor LTO in pretty much ideal conditions I think- he is well handicapped with the claim but has no chance if he sulks like he did LTO. Lord Grantham is now 0/9,0 places over fences – I am not sure what kind of place I have to get myself into to back one like that – but safe to say I don’t find myself there this morning! Daly’s record with handicappers isnt the best around here either.
Of the rest – well good old Kings Massini lines up but is well held by the selection on last years form, and if the selection runs his race, I see no reason for that to be overturned. He did run really well LTO after a break though and should not be too far behind KK. Thoonavolla is the same price as KK and I am not sure why – clearly he is unexposed but he has been winning weak races and he now goes up in trip. He has that to prove. He may relish (not so sure) but does need to step up. His jumping was scrappy LTO also and in this big field will be put under pressure. The Curtis horse now has plenty to prove also. I would not be shocked if Midnight Appeal ran into a place – while a poor enough Hunter Chase LTO he ran on well there over an inadequate trip and has form back in the day to mix it. He is 11 now, and this jockey could have better form figures over regulation fences – but the trainer is in form and he may nick 3rd or something – if building on that last run. Strumble Head would have had a bit more attention if young Bowen jnr hadn’t jumped ship on the 3rd fav. I don’t think he is quite good enough for this level now but maybe they are plotting a summer target for him. He is running as if he may still have a race in him – I can’t think that is today though. Captain Flash won a weak race LTO and this is much tough and likewise with the Vaughan horse – he is inconsistent and I struggle to see him being good enough against some of these at their best. URD is out of form and well held behind the fav. No.
This race should be going to one of the top 3 in the market (or Kings Massini if they all flop!) and KK looks to be the bet. Everything makes sense and with a clear round I think he may well bolt up here. Whatever happens, backing this type, over time, (albeit they don’t quite come what appears to be ‘this perfect’ very often) when all these boxes have been ticked, will ensure we will continue to do OK. 🙂
PACE…Bucking The Trend/Captain Flash/Relentless Dreamer all like to be up there. Strumble Head, Lord Grantham,Express D B, UDR don’t like to be far away. This race should be truly run. KK can track the pace or be held up – either way it should set up well for him.
Present View – 1 point win – 7/1 (general – PaddyP – money back is 2nd to SP fav) *
*price as of 08.57
I am happy to take a chance on this one at 7/1 – clearly he is the best horse in the race on all known form for me – his runs at the Festival and Cheltenham in general marking him out as a smart horse. Clearly he has lost his way a bit but he returned to some kind of form LTO – very much seen as a comeback run. If he runs up to his best he is just much better than these- and I can’t see any of the more unexposed ones improving to match him. Now, the one main question is clearly stamina. Will he stay? Well, for me he has yet to prove that he wont. Firstly he has good ground (which by Presenting you would think he would relist) and he gets a flat track – If he is going to stay it will be a around this track. He also always ‘stayed on’ at Cheltenham over 2m4f/2m5f – and one in a fiercely run Festival handicap – around here this won’t feel much further than that. He is also getting older and maybe with age he may stay a bit further. There are reasons there to think he may stay this trip – he may not of course, but at 7s, given his back class and the fact he is still unexposed (only 10th chase run of his life) I was happy to take a chance. The actual weight is a question also but he won easily at MR carrying 11-8 and I would hope the extra 4lb wont inconvenience him. I am unconcerned by his handicap mark – I won’t be using that as an excuse I don’t think given his profile.
Of the rest… Well Port Melon wouldn’t be this price if not trained by Nicholls and there was everything surrounding his late championship charge. Clearly his string our bouncing and this one is very unexposed, and still in the ‘could be anything’ category. But for me, 8s is short for one who is inconsistent, may have metal issues, and whose form as yet doesnt match up to much. That win around here was a weak race, nothing has come out of it and won since – 0/16 to date. I wont fall off my seat if/when he wins but I am struggling to take 5/1 about his chance. Harrys Farewell – I have backed him once but he is a dodgy jumper who needs to tidy that up – maybe he will do that but there will be no hiding place here – he is a hold your breath type at every fence and has a break to overcome. I was happy to leave him at the price, albeit he is unexposed. Loose Chips is a grand old servant but wont get an easy lead here and his mark is not moving. He is open to attack from anything still progressing or that has something in hand. I am struggling to make a case for the rest.
PACE…plenty like to get on with it in here – Loose Chips, Valadom,Pantxoa,Harrys Farewell,Wizards Bridge and even Present View can be up there – Hopefully Powell runs in the front third (the place to be around here and you do need to be up there turning in, usually) and may track a fast pace – hopefully he doesn’t track a dodgy jumper – there are a few around here.
Hopefully this one can get back on track and show his class. There is still more to come from him at some point and if he stays this well then that will open up new targets next season.
That is all for Tips
April Trainer (16/1<)
2.00 Kemp – Threebarmymen – 2nd 10/1 (1/2L, painful for win only bettors!!-that’s me)
3.40 Ludlow – Miss Serious – UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing today. (Yet to look through Brighton card using my stats- I will highlight the odd thing of interest every now and then, but not today, time is getting on)
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