NEW POST/PDF ALERT….
I have started to pull together some stats for Perth’s three day meeting. I will post these up, and a link on here, at some point Monday afternoon. There are certainly a few trainers to keep a close eye on.
I also need to do a ‘weekly diary’ post for the last couple of weeks and will get that complete asap also.
Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016
Clearly I could have picked a better example than Thirsk on Saturday! I backed a few of those highlighted, and left a few others having had a closer look at the horses/form/trainer form etc. Thankfully Nottingham came to the rescue with 2 winners from 4 potential bets, for a profit of 6.5 points if backing all 4 to 1 point level stakes.
Of course you can also join the loyal army of monthly Donations Club Members and get a 50% discount at one of the links below.
I have had a look at the Gibbstown/Basford Ben races and at the odds etc I am happy not to tip either. Both races feel a bit trappy – Gibbstown failed to follow up in similar circumstances in 2014 albeit she has everything in her favour again – but she is a c5 animal for a reason – lack of consistency etc. 11/4 is tight enough and no need to go giving our profits back. Albeit if she is in the same form at LTO she should go close. BB- he could well have competition for the lead, it was a hard race LTO and you could make some sort of case for every horse bar the two outsiders I think. He could well get tapped for toe again around here, over this trip. I have had a small ‘fun money’ double to brighten up my Monday, but I wouldn’t go mad on that. (forget the last time I backed a successful double- not that I play many) They both could win again, or they could be disappointing. That is not ‘official’ advice 🙂
2.50 NA: Dainty Diva (16/1<) – UP
3.50 NA: Shoofly Milly (16/1<) UP
2,30 Hex: Surprise Vendor (12/1<) WON 4/1 (after R4)
3.30 Hex: Octagon (12/1<) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
A couple of runners from the Pontefract Micro System in my guide. Clearly I won’t be posting selections here everyday but I suppose I am in promotion mode 🙂
2.40 Pont: Spring Offensive (9/1<) WON 4/1
5.15 Pont: Arcano Gold (9/1<) WON 9/2>7/2
Evan Williams/Paul Moloney have a runner from that micro angle I researched a few weeks back…
3.50 NA: Present Times (any odds)
So, I have used my guide to draw up a shortlist. That took me around 10 minutes for this particularly card. I then spend a further 15-20 minutes or so looking at those shortlisted horses… My notes, as follows…
Trinity Star / Spring Offensive. WON The latter is a main system bet and appears to be fancied well enough, price coming in. The idea of the track trainer system (s) is to have confidence to back them systematically if you wish. BUT, they have not been tested ‘live’ so to speak so you can paper trade, use smaller stakes,or use as part of other analysis. Trinity Star – in handicaps he is 0/5,2p on when soft is in going,0/7,1 p in C4, usually needs the run and all wins with Cheelpieces on. He may well in, but on the way that I look at flat handicappers, enough questions there for me to leave him.
Related / My Name is Rio / Beardwood UP- The first has been nibbled at and has the ability – but the ground is a big big unknown – all wins on Good to Firm/AW – not tested on it very many times and the trainer is very cold – 11/2 or so feels short enough for ME given the going Q – que sluicing up by half the track! My Name Is Rio – again is short enough for me given he is drawn wide, the handicapper may have him (may not) and he is susceptible to attack from anything more unexposed. He is 0/3, 1 p in C2 handicaps now – but he goes on soft, and does have some decent form in good races. Beardwood – is maybe of most interest from the shortlist as he is in the ‘could be anything category’ and Fahey’s stats here with those returning after 90 days are impressive enough. CD winner and based on that last run I don’t think ground an issue. Well drawn also. More interesting at 9/2
Dacoity -UP Fahey’s maiden stats here are strong, but he is 5/2 which for me personally is short. I will mainly play in these races, using the guide, if the stats are strong and they are a very decent price – hoping to nab a biggie. What I know about maiden races/breeding etc you could write on the back of half a stamp.
4.45 – Groundworker UP/
Fuel Injection – both for Midgley here and unlike his earlier one, these are supported by further stats of those runners over this distance – he does well with the 5-5.5f sprinters here. The latter look up against it but Groundworker interests me. The ground is fine and G Lee is booked also – he looks weak in the market at 9/1 but will be fit, draw is ok, and so is the ground. Yes the trainer is cold, but the price is more interesting here. I may well have a nibble at 9s – Midgley will have winners/profits over this distance here over time.
5.15 – Arcano Gold WON is another main system bet as above, has had a run and Fahey is good over this distance here.
Dark Ocean is the other on the list – he is 0/5,1 p OR 81+,albeit those runs in C3 level. Of those two I probably favour the former as he is more unexposed etc – but they both will hopefully run well.
So, that is an example, of how I would look at a card. If you have a guide I would take some time, paper trade, use small stakes etc to get a feel for things and the kind of approach that suits you. As a starting point I would recommend using the main system for the track (if there is one), trainer/jockey combo stats and first time in a handicap. The bigger the numbers, higher the win rate, profits etc obviously the more confident you can be over time. The stats are only ever a starting point but you may wish to pick out a few you will follow systematically. The idea is that some of these angles will be profitable over time, but stats like this are not a get rich quick scheme and you will still back more losers than winners. Profit is the important thing, as it always is. You have to find an approach that suits you, the time you have etc. I will miss things as well, miss the odd stat, horse that bolts up etc. That is how it goes.
Windsor...(just be the stats shortlist, no analysis of horse/race etc…)
right, I think this took just under 5 mins…
6.20 – Links Drive Lady
7.50 – Secret Bird / O Dee
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