Members Report: 18/04/16 (COMPLETE)

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NEW POST/PDF ALERT….

PERTH: NEW BLOG POST HERE>>>

YOU CAN ALSO DOWNLOAD A PDF OF THE NOTES HERE>>>

 

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I have started to pull together some stats for Perth’s three day meeting. I will post these up, and a link on here, at some point Monday afternoon. There are certainly a few trainers to keep a close eye on. 

I also need to do a ‘weekly diary’ post for the last couple of weeks and will get that complete asap also. 

Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016

Clearly I could have picked a better example than Thirsk on Saturday! I backed a few of those highlighted, and left a few others having had a closer look at the horses/form/trainer form etc. Thankfully Nottingham came to the rescue with 2 winners from 4 potential bets, for a profit of 6.5 points if backing all 4 to 1 point  level stakes. 

You can still get a copy HERE>>> and start using it straight away for Pontefract and Windsor.

 

Of course you can also join the loyal army of monthly Donations Club Members and get a 50% discount at one of the links below. 

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TIPS

NO TIPS 

I have had a look at the Gibbstown/Basford Ben races and at the odds etc I am happy not to tip either. Both races feel a bit trappy – Gibbstown failed to follow up in similar circumstances in 2014 albeit she has everything in her favour again – but she is a c5 animal for a reason – lack of consistency etc. 11/4 is tight enough and no need to go giving our profits back. Albeit if she is in the same form at LTO she should go close. BB- he could well have competition for the lead, it was a hard race LTO and you could make some sort of case for every horse bar the two outsiders I think. He could well get tapped for toe again around here, over this trip. I have had a small ‘fun money’ double to brighten up my Monday, but I wouldn’t go mad on that. (forget the last time I backed a successful double- not that I play many) They both could win again, or they could be disappointing. That is not ‘official’ advice 🙂 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

April Trainers 

2.50 NA: Dainty Diva (16/1<) – UP

3.50 NA: Shoofly Milly (16/1<) UP

Jumps Handicappers

2,30 Hex: Surprise Vendor (12/1<) WON 4/1 (after R4) 

3.30 Hex: Octagon (12/1<) UP

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

A couple of runners from the Pontefract Micro System in my guide. Clearly I won’t be posting selections here everyday but I suppose I am in promotion mode 🙂 

2.40 Pont: Spring Offensive (9/1<) WON 4/1

5.15 Pont: Arcano Gold (9/1<) WON 9/2>7/2

Evan Williams/Paul Moloney have a runner from that micro angle I researched a few weeks back…

3.50 NA: Present Times (any odds) 

Pontefract…

So, I have used my guide to draw up a shortlist. That took me around 10 minutes for this particularly card. I then spend a further 15-20 minutes or so looking at those shortlisted horses… My notes, as follows…

2.40 – Trinity Star / Spring Offensive. WON The latter is a main system bet and appears to be fancied well enough, price coming in. The idea of the track trainer system (s) is to have confidence to back them systematically if you wish. BUT, they have not been tested ‘live’ so to speak so you can paper trade, use smaller stakes,or use as part of other analysis. Trinity Star – in handicaps he is 0/5,2p on when soft is in going,0/7,1 p in C4, usually needs the run and all wins with Cheelpieces on. He may well in, but on the way that look at flat handicappers, enough questions there for me to leave him. 

3.10- Related / My Name is Rio / Beardwood UP- The first has been nibbled at and has the ability – but the ground is a big big unknown – all wins on Good to Firm/AW – not tested on it very many times and the trainer is very cold – 11/2 or so feels short enough for ME given the going Q – que sluicing up by half the track! My Name Is Rio – again is short enough for me given he is drawn wide, the handicapper may have him (may not) and he is susceptible to attack from anything more unexposed. He is 0/3, 1 p in C2 handicaps now – but he goes on soft, and does have some decent form in good races. Beardwood – is maybe of most interest from the shortlist as he is in the ‘could be anything category’ and Fahey’s stats here with those returning after 90 days are impressive enough. CD winner and based on that last run I don’t think ground an issue. Well drawn also. More interesting at 9/2

4.10 – Dacoity -UP Fahey’s maiden stats here are strong, but he is 5/2 which for me personally is short. I will mainly play in these races, using the guide, if the stats are strong and they are a very decent price – hoping to nab a biggie. What I know about maiden races/breeding etc you could write on the back of half a stamp.

4.45 – Groundworker UP/Fuel Injection – both for Midgley here and unlike his earlier one, these are supported by further stats of those runners over this distance – he does well with the 5-5.5f sprinters here. The latter look up against it but Groundworker interests me. The ground is fine and G Lee is booked also – he looks weak in the market at 9/1 but will be fit, draw is ok, and so is the ground. Yes the trainer is cold, but the price is more interesting here. I may well have a nibble at 9s –  Midgley will have winners/profits over this distance here over time. 

5.15 – Arcano Gold WON is another main system bet as above, has had a run and Fahey is good over this distance here. Dark Ocean is the other on the list – he is 0/5,1 p OR 81+,albeit those runs in C3 level. Of those two I probably favour the former as he is more unexposed etc – but they both will hopefully run well. 

So, that is an example, of how I would look at a card. If you have a guide I would take some time, paper trade, use small stakes etc to get a feel for things and the kind of approach that suits you. As a starting point I would recommend using the main system for the track (if there is one), trainer/jockey combo stats and first time in a handicap. The bigger the numbers, higher the win rate, profits etc obviously the more confident you can be over time. The stats are only ever a starting point but you may wish to pick out a few you will follow systematically. The idea is that some of these angles will be profitable over time, but stats like this are not a get rich quick scheme and you will still back more losers than winners. Profit is the important thing, as it always is. You have  to find an approach that suits you, the time you have etc. I will miss things as well, miss the odd stat, horse that bolts up etc. That is how it goes.

Windsor...(just be the stats shortlist, no analysis of horse/race etc…)

right, I think this took just under 5 mins…

6.20 – Links Drive Lady 

7.50 – Secret Bird / O Dee 

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POST COMPLETE

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which is out now.  

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. Hi Josh – I have purchased your Trainer Track Profiles having watched your very impressive video. I must admit it is taking me a lot longer than 5 minutes to identify qualifiers but I might get quicker as I get used to it. Not sure yet if I will be able to make this work for me as I see there can be multiple qualifiers in a race – 4 in one race at Pontefract if I’ve done it right.. I appreciate now this is just a way in and will need further research etc – but will see how things go.
    Just got a couple of questions
    Is a novice race the same as a maiden race? Do you include qualifiers from novice races as well as maidens?
    Is a novice auction race the same as a seller?
    Do you include 3YO first time runners as well as 2YO first time runners or are they discounted?
    Sorry if this is obvious to some – only a smaller time bettor and not really used systems myself before.
    Cheers
    Mike

    1. HI Michael,
      Thanks for your questions – always welcome, however ‘obvious’ they may seem – nothing is obvious in this game! And highly likely someone else is thinking it…

      Firstly, you have 60 days to try and make it work for you 🙂 I would find some angles/race types to start with, to focus on – personally I like Trainer/Jockey combos and 1st time handicap stats – as well as the main system per track (where there is one) play around with it, paper trade, smaller stakes etc – get to a place you are comfortable.

      Questions..

      1. No. Race title must have MAIDEN in it somewhere. There is a Novice race at Ponte but this will not be included in the maiden stats. BUT – in that particular race – the 1st Time Out 1 year old stats would apply. They ARE NOT restricted just to maiden races – just ALL those aged 2 running for the first time

      2. None of the stats in the main guide (bar the 1st time out 2 year old ones) apply to novice aution/sellers. They are different race types albeit I don’t play in them and don’t know the exact difference. The BONUS stats at the end for Sellers and Claimers – they are for non handicaps, and would apply to a novice seller say, as long as it was not a handicap.

      3. Maidens…those stats will cover horses of all ages, that are running in that Maiden race. The trainer stats relate to all maiden races – those races/stats will include 3yo’s 1st time out. The final stat section – 1st time out 2 year olds – clearly just refers to 2 year olds.

      Hope that helps, if not then fire away again. You will get to a place where you realise you will miss winners – but for each track as a starting point you may just want to focus on a handful of stats that you think are strongest, that may be in race types that you prefer – and then you can go from there – build up your bank, confidence etc. These stats, and the way they have been presented, allow punters of all different levels, and of all betting types (some like 1-2 bets a day, some love 10+ bets a day, some like systems and bet systematically, others like them as a starting point for further form analysis etc etc)

  2. I know that it is late on a Sunday but Stake Acclaim from the Ivory stable has been put up as a gamble in the 5.20 at Windsor. I was on at 9/2 but it has quickly dropped to 7/2,

    1. Ivory/Winston performing very well at Windsor
      odds may rise
      thay have also SECRET BIRD 14/1 but that horse may need first run ,already won at W
      e/w can be safer choice
      not so much draw adv at W
      There is draw adv at Pont:from low to middle on 5f and 6f

      1. Now at 3/1 best. Ivory gambles are usually solid but value may have gone now. I am happy to have played this one at 9/2 though.

  3. Also Greatrex is putting The Missus (Waley Cohen) into a handicap in the 2.50 at Newton Abbot. I have not heard from my gnome yet but watch this space.

  4. Martin Cowell – I had a 12th share in The Missus when it won a Pontefract seller in 1977. It wzs sold at the subsequent auction but made the news the next day in the trade papers as it was reported the auctioneer stated connections were not in. The horse was sold for a much higher figure to a mystery buyer and I dont think it won again. I think and hope this win for you today .

      1. 1977! That makes the horse 39 now. This must be the new improved version? Waley Cohen bought it for his son to gallop around on. Not heard anything else so it seems it is not a gamble today. Tally ho!

  5. The Missus, fractious in the proceedings and unruly on the way to post, obstinate and difficult to load and showed a distinct lack of interest in the race, didn’t respond to the whip and tailed in a distant last, the trainer reported that she had cost him a lot of money but would persevere and may try a blindfold and “other aids” next time.

    1. I just had the word on The Missues at 5/2 but it is borderline value to me and wont be playing big on it.

  6. Maiden races for two-year-olds, a familiar feature of the Flat racing landscape for decades, will all but disappear in the early months of the 2016 season under a pilot scheme announced by the British Horseracing Authority on Monday which aims to boost field sizes and increase the competitiveness of the Flat programme.

    From the start of the 2016 season 90% of many maidens will be converted to “novice” events broadly similar to the novice hurdles and novice chases that are a key part of the National Hunt schedule. As a result inexperienced horses or those making their racecourse debut can expect to face opponents with proven winning form.

    The Flat programme currently includes a limited number of novice events for two-year-olds that have won a maiden but, despite the small number of such races, they are rarely well supported and often have a short-priced favourite. Over the last two seasons the average field for novice events has been just under five runners, while the average starting price of the favourite has been a shade of odds-on at 10-11, producing races with little appeal to punters.

    The BHA’s plan will, in effect, open up these races to maidens and debutants while at the same time removing most alternative targets before the nursery handicap season, which begins in July.whose stable has a high percentage of two-year-olds. While welcoming the announcement of the BHA’s initiative, however, Hannon was surprised that as many as 90% of maidens, a total of about 175 races, will now be open to previous winners.

    “Ninety per cent is probably a bit high but I think we could do with more novice races and conditions races, especially in the build-up to [Royal] Ascot [in mid-June], when there aren’t enough races for two-year-olds,” Hannon said.

    “It’s a step in the right direction and the good thing is that the BHA is listening. The bottom line is that we need more conditions and novice races but we need a few more maidens, not 90%, becoming winners’ races. Maidens are maidens and should be for maidens. All horses need an opportunity.”

  7. The above was from an article written last Autumn. I agree that 90% is too high. However, for those of us old enough to remember the ‘Spindrifter’ days, there will be opportunities here. There used to be a massive advantage in 2yo races up to the end of June where the those that had run and shown ability, had a big advantage over touted newcomers. Could be interesting for a couple of months!

    1. Thanks Richard for that. Yep certainly will be – an interesting change, definitely some caution now – and at least there are still some maidens! Of most interest will be how it may impact on nurseries. Interesting. I don’t play at that age end too often but will keep an eye on it.

  8. One from a micro that was up before – J Scott April NH Handicaps – Shoofly Milly, 8/1 generally. Although he seems a bit out of form.

    1. jockey bookings in that race intrigued me – I havent looked at it in much depth and have backed Scotts – but strange that Schofield is on the { Henderson horse?

  9. I don’t touch Nurseries and I am wary in early season three year old handicaps as they are just an extension of them. Two year old races are however a good area to bet in, particularly at up to to six furlongs. Most of them just go and run, and have not yet developed any unfortunate habits!

    1. That is a very good point! Yep I don’t touch Nurseries in general, bar the Fahey micro system I have which has had an incredible few years, I only cottoned onto it late last season, will post on blog again nearer time they start. Interesting if he continues with same approach – suppose the novice races will still be used by many trainers for handicapping purposes/gaining experience- and assume it is still 3 runs required before getting a mark etc.

      1. Its an interesting point for discussion. I had some joy with them last year since I think the market certainly underestimates certain trainers and the other angle I was looking at is horses which ran in in a Class 1 or 2 nurseries before dropping down a couple of class.

  10. Just watched Stake aclaim winning,2 on the trot at windsor nowafter 2 at ponty,stats really firing,great stuff josh,thats the package paid for in one day

    1. Good Stuff Gerry – yep I was roaring the Fahey horses home – both never in too much doubt (bar the first coming over to stands) – a great start, plus a couple of losers there – a good day indeed! Shame I didn’t do the double!
      Yep – Given what Richard has said above about changes to maiden races – becoming Novice – a case can be made to view the novice races using Maiden stats – if you did, then you would have had the Evans winner at Windsor – I didnt. Think he was 8/1>4/1? Good stuff if you had him also!

      1. It drifted in the betting after the gamble down but it was in no doubt really. Wish all previous night tips ran so strongly.

  11. Yes got the 8/1 last night,read somewhere once that trainers like evans like to get their 2 yr olds ready to fire early season before the big stables get going with their stars

    1. yep plenty of logical sense in that approach – maybe I should have a dive into ‘early season maiden trainers’…

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