UPDATE: A disappointing day. And I feel a bit sick. Vincente did that well and is one of those I didn’t want to win – He went into the notebook after Cheltenham (was in the diary post that followed I think)- he traveled really well in the 4 miler for a long way and thoughts after the race were a) he either didn’t stay or b) having come to Cheltenham after a 90 day break he wasn’t A1 and something else was planned. I got ‘the story’ right in my own mind- I asked myself this morning whether this had been the plan all along, knowing that he needed to win a big pot for championship etc – and it was a big race in its own right. That doesn’t help now though. I was put off as I thought he needed genuinely good ground to be at his best and his jumping had been scrappy at times (although was fine LTO,but on good) -and the fact he had only won in small fields put me off a bit – (influenced by that field size LTO stat also) I don’t know what the ground was but I don’t think there was much soft in it – anyway, he can join the pile of those Cheltenham handicappers that were very close to being backed, but alas got away. I didn’t enjoy watching the finish to that. Frustrating. That happens, but it doesn’t feel very good when it does. .
That is the most annoyed I have been following a race in some time because in general I don’t add too many horses to the notebook that catch my eye in that way – and I have let him go un-backed. Trust the eyes. It all made sense. That is the annoying thing. I could have handled most other horses winning that I think. Anyway, we live and learn. And I didn’t even mention him on the blog so you shrewdies could have had a nibble! Just poor form.
That’s the worst Saturday I have had in a while. I need a drink. (as I write most of those ‘stats’ horses I highlighted at Thirsk did indeed drop out of the back of the tv – the market suggested a few of them would – on the flip side, Jenkins won the first at Nottingham with a really well backed horse 5/1>9/4 and hopefully some of you may have found him – using the ‘distance’ micro angles I think)
(I like to write the above thoughts and put them on the blog – I think it helps me move on! – so apologies if it is like rubbing salt into a wide open Saturday punting wound. We are still 9 points up for the month :))
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TIPS
NONE for Sunday.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
April Trainer (16/1<)
1. 55 Winc: Blue April – UP
3.30 Winc: Brave Deed – UP
Jumps Handicappers
1.55 Winc: Dragoon Guard (12/1<) (syndicate members of this suggest that he may need further – we shall see what the market does!) UP
Other
Pam Sly (any): 4.50 Wetherby: Bonnets Vino UP
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That will be all for Sunday. Enjoy the rest of your weekend. My own personal pity party has just about come to an end! 🙂
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27 Responses
No good worrying about winners missed Josh.. I’ve had Accession on my list for about 12 months. Waiting for him to drop 2 or 3 lbs to get in with a chance.They run him 2lbs out of handicap at Newmarket last Thursday. Wins by 6L AT 20/1.
Could cry with nothing on him.
Ah, in a way glad to hear I am not the only one!! That is a relatively new feeling for me – missing a tracked one/a ‘story horse’ etc – wasnt pleasant and while it will happen numerous times again no doubt I will be trying to ensure it doesnt!
Its natural to feel gutted when one you had noted lto pops up and your hoping something will nab it on the run in,i remember backing a horse new years resolution,ran shit that day but though i must back it next time out if it turned up at the course again,of course it did,and i completely missed a 25/1 winner,theres no point beating yourself up at these,i dont remember too much when Gary Moore had six on the trot that i backed,I read once that if you found a 50 note lying on the pavement it would probably give you a few minutes pleasure but if you had lost a 50 on way to shops it would be on your mind for days,its just the way we are wired,i had the jenkins horse,i think with any stats is to look back from end of season and analyise,early season is very sketchy,when ever you get down think of that one you backed at 33/1 and also you are way ahead of expectations for jumps season
Thanks Gerry, yep I would have bitten your hand off for the profits I/we have made this jumps season, since early Oct/November time – way above my expectations so I won’t complain on that front. And in this sport we are lucky there is always a new puzzle, another challenge etc and I try and take the positives – it is something that I got 2/3rds of analysis right on that horse, tracking it etc, but fell at Bechers on the final circuit! Next time!
I have found interesting free form rating service wih pace analysys
http://www.patternform.co.uk/
Pab, the pace analysis is pretty primitive, most races show no front runners 🙂 and the ones that do, don’t always get the lead. I used to use Patternform a lot until I noticed that when you ran the filters a lot of races were missed off a horses record for some reason, probably because the tool can’t cope with distances that are like 1mile 70yards on the flat or 2miles 41/2 furlongs over jumps.
Josh
If it is any consolation, The Mathematician got wrong with 3 horses. Nick Pullen also got it wrong.
At least you did mention it in the blog they didn’t.
Perth 3 day Festival starts on Wed, I will be there on Wed any thing of interest would be appreciated. Only one 3m chase of note.
Cheers Mike – someone sent me the Mathematicians analysis of Rule The Word/Grand National and I have to say that was one of the best pieces of analysis I have ever read. I may get in touch with him and see if he wants to share his stuff and he clearly has a fine mind/approach – so in a way am glad he didn’t pick him haha.
Yep I will have a good look at Perth – a few trainers who target that and am sure I can find some stats/micro systems/profiles etc. Will get that done before Wednesday.
I wouldn’t beat yourself up about one Saturday. Of all the tipsters I read, both paid and free, only one tipped Vicente (BetAlchemist). Before today, 7 yo’s had only won this race three times since 1984, off marks of 137, 137 and 139. Vicente is 7 and won off a mark of 146. So he is a stats breaker.
Re the flat stats from Thirsk, you always make the point quite clearly that they are a starting point. Though Easterby/ Richardson had a good winner at Ripon a couple of days ago, I wasn’t keen to back a trainer who has had no other winner from 41 rides over the last 30 days.
I did notice that about Tim Easterby too.
The Racing Post showed him to have 11% of horses running to form on their stats That is truly dire.
MInd you when you use systems of any kind, you have to overlook things like that. That’s when the systems pop up with winners at juicy prices, in many cases.
I found Lewisham ( got 9/2) and Dancing Years 4/1 at Nottingham from the stats so not all doom and gloom today.
I don’t think I have seen a horse run as bad as TDC? At the start it looked ready to go but once they went he quickly shuffled to the back, tailed himself off and then pulled up. I take Sundays off but I see there is a 3M + race first up at Stratford. Looks tricky, good luck. Nicholls has runners and will get backed the form he is in.
5 points profit at nottingham,4 points loss at thirsk.not so bad on first road test,just doing minimum stakes until season settles down
Now that Tim Vaughan has hit form,Bennachie in the 3.30 wincanton at 12/1 is my value bet for the day
Lawless Island looks interesting for him in the 3.30 too.
Poor run last time but lightly race over fences and only a 7 year old. 2lbs lower than looking a likely winner until getting brought down two starts ago. Undoubtebly poor last time but Richard Johnson on board for the first time over fences today & up to 3miles (won his only point at the trip). Yes, he ran poorly at 3 miles on his first start over fence but in all likelihood he badly needed the run.
8/1 looks a really good price. The top two in the weights definitely have decent chances but at the prices, Lwlwss Island could be interesting.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CgO-_pSWwAA2zQ3.jpg:large Only good thing about the Racing Post in terms of journalism, Paul Kealy!
Thanks Andy – it just gets worse!! haha. He is a top judge in fairness, that is a good write up – and plenty for me to take from that. Does he top the tipping tables etc? do they publish them, long term record etc?
Josh, the Sporting Life naps table shows Paul Kealy’s Weekender tips are showing a -18.44 loss, after Vicente’s win yesterday. I don’t know whether that’s from Jan 1st this year or some arbitrary start date for the Jumps season.
Well, that is reassuring! 🙂
that’ll be to ISP though…always tough to beat that (would have had a good few extra points just on Vicente probably)
Hi Josh,
Can’t be backing winners all of the time and will always be days like Saturday. Gerry regarding T Vaughan stable, will be a stable worth following in the summer months, watched tv interview with him Friday and he has some nice horses who need decent ground.
Take a look at
2:55 WINCANTON Miss Tenacious 28/1 now
overpriced horse
Deservedly back on the scoreboard at Worcester (2m) in September. Shaped as if needing run on first run since last month and better expected now.
Looked like a tricky race when I had a glance earlier but you’re right at that price have to have a small bet.
Hi Josh,
I wouldn’t beat yourself too much about Vicente mate. I have only been doing this for properly from a stats perspective from less than a year I have lost count the number of times I ended up missing out on a horse I had considered but dismissed. The worst one was the Litigant for last year’s Ebor which was 80/1 the night before. What’s even worse is missing out on a horse the day after since you’re still steaming about the previous days results. I am extremely competitive so still get annoyed at myself when this happens but the fact is I have just come to accept that barring backing everything that takes my fancy (which is definitely the wrong approach) I will miss out on a number of winners. The easiest way to forget them is getting back on that horse and picking out your next winner. You’ve been doing that part successfully for a number of months so no doubt the next one is just around the corner.
On a separate note I know you have plans to change things anyway but I was in London all of yesterday and I was replying back on here via the mobile and the posts with several replies end up about three characters wide and make it extremely difficult to reply. (some you cant even read) So I don’t suppose there is an easy fix for that?
Hi Nick,
Yep all good points. I am over it now! Onto the next race, got Perth to look forward to and Sandown. And all will be forgotten when the first 25/1 sprint handicapper dots up! 🙂
Re the blog – it simply isnt mobile friendly in any way. All of that will be resolved. Will be redesigned on a new theme etc – I have some goot techie/designer friends who will be sorting it all out soon. (for a fee of course – it needs re building from bottom up, to be suitable for next 5 years plus)
Many horses are tired,thay are like humans,instead to win,thay prefer to rest