Hello,
What follows are a few notes on the upcoming three day meeting from Perth. I have looked at the last five seasons of all races run at Perth in April – which I believe only covers this meeting!
As always, the aim of this info is to help with your own analysis and with any luck help ensure you have a profitable three days. (or even more profitable)
There are some general stats which I hope are self-explanatory. At the end are a handful of ‘trainer micro systems’ which will hopefully ensure we focus on the right horses from those trainers concerned.
Anyway, enjoy.
Josh
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YOU CAN ALSO DOWNLOAD A PDF OF THE NOTES BELOW HERE>>>
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Perth
April 3 Day Festival Stats
Last 5 seasons. (2011/12/13/14/15)
All Handicaps
Trainers of Interest
- Gordon Elliot: 19 bets / 6 wins / 8 places / 32% sr / +1 SP / +4 BFSP / AE 1.3
- NTD: 35 bets / 5 wins / 16 places / 14% sr / +9 SP / +13 BFSP / AE 0.96
- V Dartnall: 15 bets / 4 wins / 9 place s/ 27% sr / +1 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 1.3
- T R George: 28 bets / 4 wins / 12 place s/ 14% sr / +4 SP / +9 BFSP / AE 0.76
- D McCain: 19 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 16% sr / -2 SP / 0 BFSP / AE 1.28
- P Bowen: 4 bets / 2 wins / 3 place s/ 50% sr / +7 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 2.53
Trainer/Jockey Combos
- T R George/A P Crawley: 12 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 25% sr / +12 SP / +16 BFSP / AE 11.00
- V Dartnall/D O’Regan: 7 bets / 2 wins / 5 place s/ 29% sr / +3 SP / +4 BFSP / AE 11.00
- M Jefferson/Brian Hughes: 8 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 25% sr / +6 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 11.00
- NTD/Ryan Hatch: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +23 SP / +26 BFSP / AE 21.00
- I A Duncan/Mr G Watters: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 place s/ 100% sr / +6 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 4.33
Handicap Hurdles (includes Novice Handicaps)
Trainers of Interest
- Gordon Elliot: 13 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 38% sr / +5 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 1.47
- NTD: 21 bets / 3 wins / 11 places / 14% sr / +10 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 0.98
- Lucinda Russell: 30 bets / 3 wins / 9 places / 10% sr / +4 SP / +11 BFSP / AE 0.98
- I A Duncan: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +6 SP / +6 BFSP / AE 3.7
- V Dartnall: 7 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 28% sr / 0 SP / 0 BFSP / AE 1.49
- Miss SE Forster: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +46 SP / +63 BFSP / AE 25
Trainer/Jockey Combos
- NTD/Ryan Hatch: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +23 SP / +26 BFSP / AE 21.00
- I A Duncan/Mr G Watters: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 place s/ 100% sr / +6 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 4.33
Handicap Hurdle Debutants (may have ran in flat handicaps etc)
- Only 6 such winners, trained by 6 different trainers: Dartnall/Bethell/Russell/A J Martin/T Easterby/NTD
Handicap Chases (includes Novice handicaps etc)
Trainers of Interest
- T George: 21 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 19% sr / +11 SP / +16 BFSP / AE 1.02
- D McCain: 11 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 27% sr / +6 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 2
- M Jefferson: 7 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 29% sr / +7 SP / +9 BFSP / AE 1.68
- NTD: 14 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 14% sr / -1 SP / 0 BFSP / AE 0.93
- V Dartnall: 8 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 25% sr / +2 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 1.15
- Lucinda Russell: 0/26, 3 places
Trainer/Jockey Combos
- T R George/A P Crawley: 10 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 30% sr / +14 SP / +18 BFSP / AE 2.13
- M Jefferson/B Hughes: 5 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 40% sr / +9 SP / +11 BFSP / AE 2.6
- NTD/STD: 12 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 17% sr / +1 SP / +2 BFSP / AE 1.15
- V Dartnall/Denis O Regan: 5 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 40% sr / +5 SP / +6 BFSP / AE 1.48
Handicap Chase Debutants
- V Dartnall: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +8 SP / +9 BFSP / AE 3.51
- 1 win: Jane Clarke/G Elliot/M Jefferson
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All Non-Handicaps
Trainers of Interest
- NTD: 11 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 55% sr / +13 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 1.68
- D McCain: 16 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 25% sr / +2 SP / +2 BFSP / AE 1.12
- Gordon Elliot: 12 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 33% sr / +2 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 1
- P Hobbs: 4 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 50%sr / +1 SP / +1 BFSP / AE 1.53
Trainer/Jockey Combos
- NTD/STD: 11 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 55% sr / +13 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 1.68
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Trainer Micro Systems (Perth/April)
Micro 1
- Nigel Twiston-Davies
- NOT run 46-60 days ago
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 34 | 11 | 32.35 | 33.54 | 20 | 58.82 | 98.65 | 39.29 | 19.48 | 1.61 |
| 2015 | 9 | 3 | 33.33 | 15 | 5 | 55.56 | 166.67 | 17.67 | 6.74 | 2.61 |
| 2014 | 5 | 2 | 40 | 0.57 | 5 | 100 | 11.4 | 0.83 | 6.5 | 1.39 |
| 2013 | 5 | 1 | 20 | -3 | 3 | 60 | -60 | -3.04 | 1.46 | 0.98 |
| 2012 | 8 | 3 | 37.5 | 16.97 | 4 | 50 | 212.13 | 19.27 | 1.93 | 1.35 |
| 2011 | 7 | 2 | 28.57 | 4 | 3 | 42.86 | 57.14 | 4.56 | 2.86 | 1.98 |
In truth you should pay attention to every horse that NTD sends to the track but I did find it interesting that those returning within 46-60 days are 0/11, 2 places. Now, that could well just be an anomaly- they are small numbers after all – but there could be some logic, as that rest pattern is what I call ‘strange’. Those that return sooner may have been on the go and be race-fit. Those returning after longer breaks may have been targeted at the meeting – whereas this middle band may suggest a hold up or something. That could all just be nonsense but is something to look out for.
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GORDON ELLIOT’s….are generally over-bet now here I think. But it should be noted that with ALL hurdlers he is: 22 bets / 9 wins / 11 places/ 41% sr / +11 SP / +15 BFSP / AE 1.42
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VICTOR DARTNALL…his are all worth a second glance…5/19, 12 places. But, they are all generally well supported. Of interest, those that come here having WON last time out are: 4/5, 5 places…+11 SP.
MICRO 2
- Donald McCain
- 10/1 or shorter SP
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | A/E | |
| ALL | 25 | 7 | 28 | 9.58 | 16 | 64 | 38.32 | 11.89 | 10.57 | 1.31 |
| 2015 | 4 | 2 | 50 | 9 | 3 | 75 | 225 | 10.31 | 5.44 | 2.99 |
| 2014 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 1.5 | 4 | 80 | 30 | 1.84 | 3.73 | 0.93 |
| 2013 | 11 | 1 | 9.09 | -7.5 | 4 | 36.36 | -68.18 | -7.18 | -2.99 | 0.42 |
| 2012 | 5 | 3 | 60 | 6.58 | 5 | 100 | 131.6 | 6.91 | 4.39 | 2.42 |
Fairly simple but sometimes that is best. It looks to me that McCain clearly targets these three days with some decent and/or well handicapped horses. The no. of placed horses would suggest that. Those going off over 10/1 are 0/10, 0 places…so the market has been some guide, so far. He has also had a decent enough season given his ammo and has probably gone under the radar, racking up another 50+ winners. Given what happened this year then all credit to him.
He is currently 0/4, 1 place with handicapper hurdlers from those stats above.
- Handicap Chases: 3/9,5 places +8 SP
- Non-Handicap Hurdle: 3/10,8 places +4 SP
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MICRO 3
- Tom George
- Handicap Chase
- NOT 3m7f (Highland National?)
- 2 or more runs in previous 90 days
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | MxOdd | A/E | |
| ALL | 10 | 4 | 40 | 21.5 | 6 | 60 | 215 | 26.5 | 5.38 | 11.00 | 1.77 |
| 2015 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 0 | -100 | -2 | -2 | 4.50 | 0 |
| 2014 | 2 | 2 | 100 | 13 | 2 | 100 | 650 | 14.82 | 4.56 | 11.00 | 5.88 |
| 2013 | 4 | 1 | 25 | 4.5 | 2 | 50 | 112.5 | 7.08 | 0.76 | 9.00 | 1.19 |
| 2011 | 2 | 1 | 50 | 6 | 2 | 100 | 300 | 6.6 | 2.05 | 8.00 | 2.08 |
To extent this one can be taken with a pinch of salt – most of his runners, and his handicap chasers in particular are worthy of a second glance. He is however 0/4, 0 places in the 3m7f race to date. All handicap chasers he has sent, that have only had 0 or 1 runs in previous 90 days are: 0/8, 4 places. His ‘hard fit’ chasers do best, to date. On the flip side, we know he can ready one, so that is very much only a guide – but interesting nonetheless.
