PERTH’s 3 Day Meeting: Trainer Stats/Pointers/Micro Angles

Hello,

What follows are a few notes on the upcoming three day meeting from Perth. I have looked at the last five seasons of all races run at Perth in April – which I believe only covers this meeting!  

As always, the aim of this info is to help with your own analysis and with any luck help ensure you have a profitable three days. (or even more profitable)

There are some general stats which I hope are self-explanatory. At the end are a handful of ‘trainer micro systems’ which will hopefully ensure we focus on the right horses from those trainers concerned.

Anyway, enjoy.

Josh

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YOU CAN ALSO DOWNLOAD A PDF OF THE NOTES BELOW HERE>>>

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Perth

April 3 Day Festival Stats

Last 5 seasons. (2011/12/13/14/15)

All Handicaps

Trainers of Interest

  • Gordon Elliot: 19 bets / 6 wins / 8 places / 32% sr / +1 SP / +4 BFSP / AE 1.3
  • NTD: 35 bets / 5 wins / 16 places / 14% sr / +9 SP / +13 BFSP / AE 0.96
  • V Dartnall: 15 bets / 4 wins / 9 place s/ 27% sr / +1 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 1.3
  • T R George: 28 bets / 4 wins / 12 place s/ 14% sr / +4 SP / +9 BFSP / AE 0.76
  • D McCain: 19 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 16% sr / -2 SP / 0 BFSP / AE 1.28
  • P Bowen: 4 bets / 2 wins / 3 place s/ 50% sr / +7 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 2.53

 

Trainer/Jockey Combos

  • T R George/A P Crawley: 12 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 25% sr / +12 SP / +16 BFSP / AE 11.00
  • V Dartnall/D O’Regan: 7 bets / 2 wins / 5 place s/ 29% sr / +3 SP / +4 BFSP / AE 11.00
  • M Jefferson/Brian Hughes: 8 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 25% sr / +6 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 11.00
  • NTD/Ryan Hatch: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +23 SP / +26 BFSP / AE 21.00
  • I A Duncan/Mr G Watters: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 place s/ 100% sr / +6 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 4.33

 

Handicap Hurdles (includes Novice Handicaps)

Trainers of Interest

  • Gordon Elliot: 13 bets / 5 wins / 6 places / 38% sr / +5 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 1.47
  • NTD: 21 bets / 3 wins / 11 places / 14% sr / +10 SP / +12 BFSP / AE 0.98
  • Lucinda Russell: 30 bets / 3 wins / 9 places / 10% sr / +4 SP / +11 BFSP / AE 0.98
  • I A Duncan: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +6 SP / +6 BFSP / AE 3.7
  • V Dartnall: 7 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 28% sr / 0 SP / 0 BFSP / AE 1.49
  • Miss SE Forster: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +46 SP / +63 BFSP / AE 25

Trainer/Jockey Combos

  • NTD/Ryan Hatch: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +23 SP / +26 BFSP / AE 21.00
  • I A Duncan/Mr G Watters: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 place s/ 100% sr / +6 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 4.33

Handicap Hurdle Debutants (may have ran in flat handicaps etc)

  • Only 6 such winners, trained by 6 different trainers: Dartnall/Bethell/Russell/A J Martin/T Easterby/NTD

 

 

Handicap Chases (includes Novice handicaps etc)

Trainers of Interest

  • T George: 21 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 19% sr / +11 SP / +16 BFSP / AE 1.02
  • D McCain: 11 bets / 3 wins / 5 places / 27% sr / +6 SP / +8 BFSP / AE 2
  • M Jefferson: 7 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 29% sr / +7 SP / +9 BFSP / AE 1.68
  • NTD: 14 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 14% sr / -1 SP / 0 BFSP / AE 0.93
  • V Dartnall: 8 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 25% sr / +2 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 1.15
  • Lucinda Russell: 0/26, 3 places

Trainer/Jockey Combos

  • T R George/A P Crawley: 10 bets / 3 wins / 6 places / 30% sr / +14 SP / +18 BFSP / AE 2.13
  • M Jefferson/B Hughes: 5 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / 40% sr / +9 SP / +11 BFSP / AE 2.6
  • NTD/STD: 12 bets / 2 wins / 5 places / 17% sr / +1 SP / +2 BFSP / AE 1.15
  • V Dartnall/Denis O Regan: 5 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 40% sr / +5 SP / +6 BFSP / AE 1.48

Handicap Chase Debutants

  • V Dartnall: 2 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / 100% sr / +8 SP / +9 BFSP / AE 3.51
  • 1 win: Jane Clarke/G Elliot/M Jefferson

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All Non-Handicaps

Trainers of Interest

  • NTD: 11 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 55% sr / +13 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 1.68
  • D McCain: 16 bets / 4 wins / 10 places / 25% sr / +2 SP / +2 BFSP / AE 1.12
  • Gordon Elliot: 12 bets / 4 wins / 5 places / 33% sr / +2 SP / +3 BFSP / AE 1
  • P Hobbs: 4 bets / 2 wins / 4 places / 50%sr / +1 SP / +1 BFSP / AE 1.53

Trainer/Jockey Combos

  • NTD/STD: 11 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 55% sr / +13 SP / +14 BFSP / AE 1.68

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Trainer Micro Systems (Perth/April)

Micro 1

  • Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • NOT run 46-60 days ago

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 34 11 32.35 33.54 20 58.82 98.65 39.29 19.48 1.61
2015 9 3 33.33 15 5 55.56 166.67 17.67 6.74 2.61
2014 5 2 40 0.57 5 100 11.4 0.83 6.5 1.39
2013 5 1 20 -3 3 60 -60 -3.04 1.46 0.98
2012 8 3 37.5 16.97 4 50 212.13 19.27 1.93 1.35
2011 7 2 28.57 4 3 42.86 57.14 4.56 2.86 1.98

 

In truth you should pay attention to every horse that NTD sends to the track but I did find it interesting that those returning within  46-60 days are 0/11, 2 places. Now, that could well just be an anomaly- they are small numbers after all – but there could be some logic, as that rest pattern is what I call ‘strange’. Those that return sooner may have been on the go and be race-fit. Those returning after longer breaks may have been targeted at the meeting – whereas this middle band may suggest a hold up or something. That could all just be nonsense but is something to look out for.

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GORDON ELLIOT’s….are generally over-bet now here I think. But it should be noted that with ALL hurdlers he is: 22 bets / 9 wins / 11 places/ 41% sr / +11 SP / +15 BFSP / AE 1.42

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VICTOR DARTNALL…his are all worth a second glance…5/19, 12 places. But, they are all generally well supported. Of interest, those that come here having WON last time out are: 4/5, 5 places…+11 SP.

 

MICRO 2

  • Donald McCain
  • 10/1 or shorter SP
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 25 7 28 9.58 16 64 38.32 11.89 10.57 1.31
2015 4 2 50 9 3 75 225 10.31 5.44 2.99
2014 5 1 20 1.5 4 80 30 1.84 3.73 0.93
2013 11 1 9.09 -7.5 4 36.36 -68.18 -7.18 -2.99 0.42
2012 5 3 60 6.58 5 100 131.6 6.91 4.39 2.42

 

Fairly simple but sometimes that is best. It looks to me that McCain clearly targets these three days with some decent and/or well handicapped horses. The no. of placed horses would suggest that. Those going off over 10/1 are 0/10, 0 places…so the market has been some guide, so far. He has also had a decent enough season given his ammo and has probably gone under the radar, racking up another 50+ winners. Given what happened this year then all credit to him.

He is currently 0/4, 1 place with handicapper hurdlers from those stats above.

  • Handicap Chases: 3/9,5 places +8 SP
  • Non-Handicap Hurdle: 3/10,8 places +4 SP

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MICRO 3

  • Tom George
  • Handicap Chase
  • NOT 3m7f (Highland National?)
  • 2 or more runs in previous 90 days

 

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
ALL 10 4 40 21.5 6 60 215 26.5 5.38 11.00 1.77
2015 2 0 0 -2 0 0 -100 -2 -2 4.50 0
2014 2 2 100 13 2 100 650 14.82 4.56 11.00 5.88
2013 4 1 25 4.5 2 50 112.5 7.08 0.76 9.00 1.19
2011 2 1 50 6 2 100 300 6.6 2.05 8.00 2.08

 

To extent this one can be taken with a pinch of salt – most of his runners, and his handicap chasers in particular are worthy of a second glance. He is however 0/4, 0 places in the 3m7f race to date. All handicap chasers he has sent, that have only had 0 or 1 runs in previous 90 days are: 0/8, 4 places. His ‘hard fit’ chasers do best, to date. On the flip side, we know he can ready one, so that is very much only a guide – but interesting nonetheless.

 

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