Members Report: 15/04/16 (COMPLETE)

NEW POST ALERT:

Scottish Grand National STATS/TRENDS/PROFILE

 

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I have yet to watch the Cheltenham race as I was on a train but when you check the Sporting Life updated results and your horse isn’t listed with a finishing position, but is instead in that box at the bottom titled ‘also ran’, you know it didn’t go well! Happy enough with that bet, well as content as you can be with a losing pick. It happens, a lot. The highs to the lows, what a game. (as was the football for that matter!!) 

Perfect Candidate deserves some more focus, in terms of my process – a few weeks back I probably backed one too many horses whose recent form was atrocious – and the horses ran as such. They were pokes at decent odds. But they ran shockers. I may, temporarily, have gone the other way, twice this week. Firstly with Barton Gift at Exeter – too much focus on his last two runs – he hates heavy and you can literally put a line through those and ignore them. If I had done that he should have been much higher up in my thinking. And then with Perfect Candidate. I paid far too much attention to his last run, in a Festival handicap. Any horse is allowed to run badly in one of those, given how competitive they are, the occasion etc and having made an early blunder, been impeded etc, he was never really in it. If you ignored that run, then what had he done wrong? Superb course form, he had been mixing it in much better races than this – the horse he beat LTO came out and won since etc etc. In that ‘after-timing’ / hindsight context, what a fine price he was! And, he was a price which allowed you to overlook that last run. I didn’t. Slap on the wrist. So, not annoyed I didn’t back (well, I am little bit) him but as I have done a couple of times this year, I didn’t get myself into a place where I would – I really should learn my lesson! 

We move on…

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TRAINER TRACK PROFILES FLAT: 2016 

In case you missed it I have released my new stats pack for the flat. 

You can find out more HERE>>>

I am going to record a short video, hopefully today, to explain a bit more, my thinking behind it and why it will help you.

I received two differing emails after launch yesterday.

A chap called John got in touch and said, and I quote ”£37 is too dear – you robbing turd”

Pat sent me an email, and I quote again, ” Hi Josh, your TTP is well up to your usual standard and decently priced too. O’meara just landed a 12/1 winner at Ripon, albeit it was one of three. Great stuff! Many thanks” (sounds like has paid for his guide already! 🙂 ) 

A funny old world, eh?  The guide is worth every penny of what I am charging for it, and if you can’t trust my word by now then I suggest you find another blog, unsubscribe from my email list, and be on your merry way. 

Thankfully there are more Pats out there than Johns 🙂 

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TIPS 

NONE – no 3m+ chases to get stuck into. Attention will be turning to the Scottish National very soon. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

Jumps Handicappers

3.20 Font: Dont Do Mondays (14/1<) WON 7/1>13/2

3.55 Font: Acajou Des Bieffes (12/1<) NR

Other 

A King Flat (16/1<) : 7.50 Bath – Forgiving Glance 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

I have just used my new guide to go through the card at Bath – it has taken me just over 5 minutes and there are a couple of interest, in terms of the stats…

6.50 – Asfaar – 10/3 – Meehan is 6/11,7 places with all maiden runners here in last three seasons. Market may guide, as it can do with maiden runners. 

7.20 – Stockhill Diva – 7/2 – you cant go too wrong backing all of Powell’s handicappers here, if recent history is a guide – 8/28,14 places with those runners. Dizzey Heights also goes for Kittow who is 2/5 with handicappers with no run in last 90 days – he is 2/1 though and clearly those stats are not the strongest. A 1-2 maybe. Food for thought. 

That is all for today. 

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POST COMPLETE

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), discounted reports,exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which will be released at some point this week. 

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Good morning Josh,got the guide,your selling far too cheap,you could recoup 37 one track stats alone at minimum stakes.

  2. I am sure there are more “Pats” than “Johns”, the world is full of wind up merchants who don’t have the good grace or upbringing to say “thank you” when you deliver them a number of free big priced winners, they are the “johns” of this world, ungrateful, spongers, free tip merchants, who bombard forums with negativity and abuse, lets all stand up for the Pat’s of this world!

    I agree with your comments about missing occasional winners when a review says “how did I miss that”; it will always happen, however well you track and analyse, as long as you learn from it, then it is a positive not a negative. I backed a couple yesterday that ran unbelievably badly, I think we are coming to the time with NH where, it is less about pure form and more about “freshness”; decent horses having had 2-3 runs are going to beat those who have had 10+ runs slogging through the mud. The fly in the ointment is more heavy rain and more heavy going likely for the next week or so….

    As for the Flat, probably as you say best to wait and see for another 7-10 days but some nice micro angles with those trainers fast off the mark to keep us going….it will soon be May and in May I start to note 2 specific trainers, Ruth Carr and Tim Easterby (especially when his have had one run)….

    Good Luck with your pontification and thoughts about the Scot Nat, looks like we are looking for proven stayers in soft with a low weight…must be a few…payment on way for the excellent well research Flat stats…..”up yours john”!

  3. Josh got the Stats Pack yesterday,great piece of work ,busy putting some of the Micro systems into my HRB.on to the Scottish National,has Ian said we will probably want heavy ground horses.Cheers BoB

  4. Hi Josh
    The Flat Guide is spot on.
    The facts are that your tips have paid for both the guide, & monthly donations, plus monies still left in betting bank.
    Also the blog is a damn fine read.
    John bye ( or should it be BUY)

  5. Be interesting to see what your Scottish National trends bring up. Having spent a couple of hours on it last night and obviously dependant on it not drying up too much I am very much thinking Royale Knight and Heathfield against the field. (with perhaps a tiny savour on Folsom Blue given I will kick myself if he wins and I don’t have a bet)

  6. Hi Josh. Don,t beat yourself up over Barton Gift. we have an interest in him and didn’t,t have a penny on. He is pretty slow and has a mind of his own. If you can second guess him you are a better man than me.

  7. Hi Josh, you thieving **** (JOKE!). I purchased the pack at the reduced rate and it looks good. I will dip in and out of it as the season goes. Hope you enjoyed London. I was up from the Garden of England on Wednesday and one of the guys I met at a dinner was a part owner of Gullys Edge, which runs in the 3.10 at Ayr today. He said that he thought that it would go well and they were looking to win the race.
    I am on the way to Fontwell today to meet up with a couple of ‘stable insiders’. I will let you know if I hear anything. Nothing from the Greatrex gnome so far and so perhaps give his runners a miss today?
    I need the winner of the Scottish grand national Josh. The wife is out buying prom dresses for girls tomorrow and I am not off to Coventry to watch the Lions, as I have given my sons friend my ticket. So I can sit here in the quiet with the dogs and have a beer and celebrate a nice pot. So get on it please.
    Good luck today everyone. Anyone got anything for the eight race card at Fontwell please post as I will likely need it.

  8. The Greatrex gnome has been in contact and Says Warrantor is primed to go in the 5.40 at Southwell. 15/8 available in a tricky race and recent form is uninspiring. I am on but I would not go big on this one.

    1. Is Ms Lee a bit off the boil though? A solid horse with solid form so would give you a run for your money. I know someone from the Moore stable and will ask them if they know anything about it from Jamie if I spot them.

  9. Well its been a while since she had a winner Martin,but then she hasn’t had that many runners in last few weeks,so hard to gauge really

  10. Goodtoknow Martin,a 25/1 shot,Jake Greenall,Id say he will keep the ride even though Jamie has no booked ride,has won twice on him,Dont think there will be a rebecca curtiss fiasco for a while

    1. ok, nice price based upon her history this season and the ground suits I think? It is a horrible day here at Fontwell and the ground may be deep towards the end of the card. Does that suit Mr Bachster?

  11. Wow Martin….first bet since out of the cutting room……Yes it hurt….Your Gulley’s Edge made me feel better..back in the land of the living….lol.

      1. Good stuff Martin,, that was a fun 15 mins what with ‘Do Do Friday’s’ going in also! It does look awful there! You are elevating yourself to Gold standard of contributors, winners everywhere!

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