Scottish Grand National Stats/Trends/Profile

Scottish Grand National

19 renewals

441 runners, 75 placed horses

(this race has only officially been run on soft once in that time by the looks of it, and that was won by a horse carrying 11-10. The weather is a bit of an unknown and it may be best holding fire until the morning)

***

NOTE: Please remember these stats are from HRB and DO NOT consider form from abroad. As an example, Full Jack has 38 career runs to his name, but most of those were in France. He would ‘qualify’ on those career run stats below) 

CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

  • 18/19 Top 6 LTO
    • 7th or worse (completed): 1/63, 5 places…5% winners…14% runners…7% places
    • Fell: 0/36, 4 places
    • PU: 0/47, 6 places
    • Unseated Rider: 0/28, 2 places

Horse Age

  • Nothing overly significant
    • 6/7: 2/85, 20 places
    • 8/9: 11/195, 36 places
    • 10/11: 6/138, 16 places
    • 12+ : 0/23, 3 places

Days Since Run

  • Nothing significant at all really
    • 121+ : 0/8, 0 places

Horse Weight

  • 11-10+ : 3/23, 7 places (weight no barrier, depends on horse etc)

Horse Official Rating

  • OR 151+ : 0/21, 5 places

Season Runs

  • 0-1: 0/17, 1 place
  • 9+ : 0/29, 5 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

  • 4m4f or further: 0/82, 7 places

Position In Market

  • Nothing significant

Odds

  • Nothing significant

***

OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Origin of Horse

  • GB: 4/94, 12 places
  • IRE: 10/246, 47 places
  • FR: 5/86, 15 places
  • Other: 0/15, 1 place

Headgear

  • CheekP: 1/55, 4 places
  • Blinkers: 0/45, 8 places
  • Visor: 0/17, 0 places

Pos Wgts (ex Clm) –

  • Clear Top: 3/19, 6 places
  • Second (inc joints): 0/25,5 places (anomaly?- or not got class to carry weight)
  • Worst (bottom/inc joints): 6/164, 24 places

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H (Horse) -Run (90 days)

  • 0-1: 2/111, 13 places…11% winners…25% runners…17% places
  • 2-3: 16/176, 51 places
  • 4+ : 1/54, 11 places

H – Run (career)

  • 0-6: 1/30, 4 places
  • 37+ : 0/38, 3 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

  • 0: 0/16, 4 places
  • 0,1,2: 1/51, 8 places
  • 23+ : 0/39, 3 places

H-Run (Last Win)

  • 11/19: Won at least once in last two starts: 11/156, 34 places

H-Run (Last Placing)

  • 12/19: Placed on last start

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career)

  • 0/1: 3/37, 8 places
  • 2/3: 0/92, 11 places

 

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

  • 16/19: 1st or 2nd on at least one of last three starts
    • Did Not: 3/150, 19 places…16% winners…34% runners…25% places

Best in Five Runs

  • 18/19: 1st or 2nd on at least one of last five starts
    • Did Not: 1/76, 7 places…5% winners…17% runners…9% places

Class Move

  • Drop 1 or 2: 0/29, 7 places

Distance Move

  • Down 3 f or more: 0/52, 3 places

Highest Class Run

  • 16/19 had Run at Grade 3 or higher
    • Listed or below: 3/85, 10 places…16 % winners…19% runners…13% places (not too much there in truth)

 

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

  • Non Handicap: 2/90, 13 places..11% winners…20% runners…17% places

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

  • C4 or below: 0/19, 2 places

 (LR) Grp/Grd/Lst

  • 17/19 ran in a ‘Non Major’ race LTO
    • G1: 0/22, 9 places
    • G2: 0/13, 1 place
    • G3: 2/103, 11 places
    • Listed: 0/50, 6 places

 (LR) No. of Runners

  • 5 or fewer: 0/20, 1 place
  • 17 + : 0/169, 18 places
    • (interesting. Maybe some logic there – competitive race LTO, hard race LTO, likely a ‘big race’, so is this an afterthought? Etc)

(LR) Festival

  • 5/194, 26 places ran at Cheltenham or Aintree Festivals LTO

 (LR) Track

  • Doncaster: 4/19, 9 places
  • Cheltenham: 3/102, 19 places
  • Uttox: 2/37, 6 places
  • Wincanton: 2/5, 2 places
  • Aintree: 2/96, 7 places
  • 1 win each: carlisle/Warwick/Kempton/Ascot/Chepstow/Ayr
  • Haydock: 0/21, 4 places
  • Kelso: 0/27. 2 places
  • Newbury: 0/15, 3 places

 

Irish Trained Horses: 0/20, 3 places

Trainers (of interest)

  • Ferdy Murphy: 3/13, 4 places
  • A Parker: 2/4, 3 places
  • 1 win…many!..of note: P Bowen/A Crook/T Vaughan/P Nicholls (1/31,6 places)/NTD/A King/H Parrott
  • D Pipe: 0/11, 2 places
  • Miss V Williams: 0/13, 1 place
  • Mrs S J Smith: 0/18, 3 places
  • Lucinda Russell: 0/15, 2 places
  • Jonjo: 0/10, 1 place
  • P Hobbs: 0/20, 7 places
  • N Henderson: 0/10, 0 places

***

THE WINNING PROFILE?

  • Fell/PU/UR LTO: Negative/poor record
  • Top 6 LTO a big positive
  • 2-8 runs this season
  • Be wary of those that ran over 4m4f or further in career
  • Headgear is far from a positive.
  • 2-3 runs in last 90 days only, a big positive
  • 36 or fewer career runs
  • 22 or fewer handicap runs (all handicaps)
  • Be wary of those with just 2-3 career wins. Not exposed enough on the one hand, and not experienced enough on the other? Maybe, albeit maybe an anomaly
  • NOT down in trip by 3f or more
  • Ran in a race with 6-16 runners LTO (0/189,19 places outside of this – there is some logic there I think, albeit the big field LTO stat is a bit left field)
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. A stat that I consider helpful is that a horse needs to be running in 2 or 3 classes higher than its last race

  2. I’m left picking Masters Hill, Royale Knight and A Good Skin. Others to consider would be Ballyculla, Goodtoknow, Top Wood, Dolatulo and Midnight Prayer. Hopefully I get some fun and a run from my three!

  3. Headgear alert! – switched from Masters Hill to Midnight Prayer – becoming more and more of a wing and a prayer now!

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