NOTE: I am off to London for the afternoon/evening so there will be no post until Friday morning. I am aware I need to do some Scottish National trends which will be my first job Friday, after trying to find any bets etc.
Any Currency – well it doesn’t get any better than that really, bar much bigger odds and tipping a correct forecast maybe – but in terms of race analysis, getting decent odds and getting the staking right- I would take that every time 🙂 Winners like that don’t come easy – I looked at that one race from 7am until about 8.45am – then spent 25 minutes writing it up. That’s what you donate for, and to be blunt – without hard graft it is a pretty difficult game to make a profit from. (I don’t say that for you to get the violins out – I was like a pig in muck this morning,but races like that take time)
I was just pleased to get a 2 pointer right for once. Credit to the horse and connections. He is clearly still loving life. Hopefully many of you got 8/1 – it was around for nearly an hour I think and with BetBright for some time after – plenty of 7s also. That takes us from 0 to +15 points for the month in one fell swoop – the joys of playing at decent odds. (and +140 odd I think for 2016 – or £1400 to £10 bets – not bad for just over 3 months ‘work’!)
Anyway, we move on…
TRAINER TRACK PROFILES: FLAT 2016…
My new guide is pretty much complete and will be released around midday on Thursday, all being well. I know you are all excited 🙂 There will be the usual sales page etc but hopefully the freebies over the last few weeks have given you a firm idea of what to expect.
It is the best stats research I have produced and is going to help you find plenty of decent priced winners, I have no doubt about that. With this guide at your disposal you will become more clued up than the majority of other punters – whether you analyse racing from home or take the relevant page with you to the racetrack. It is easy to use and is sure to help you win more money this summer.
Anyway, that will be released tomorrow as I said. It will cost £37 (+vat) and in my mind is worth every penny.
Monthly Donations Club Members will get a near 50% discount at £20 (+vat) so if you want to take advantage of that ridiculous offer you can use the links below. 🙂 I will email members with a separate discount link. I can’t think of a better way to spend some of your Any Currency winnings 🙂
I’m getting there, hold on…
Benvolio – 1 point win – 5/1 – (general)
I won’t repeat War and Peace this time. Not quite…
Benvolio…is seemingly in the best form he has been for some time, is still lightly raced,likes the ground and stays longer than the mother in law. He got tapped for toe at times at Newbury but managed to keep in touch before powering away up the run in. If Amigo does what he did LTO – and there are a few pace pushers in here – this won’t be run at a crawl. I would like to think he is going to relish this hill and every yard of the trip. This is only his 14th chase start and as such I haven’t paid too much/any attention to that rise in his mark. This same mark would not have stopped him LTO and in actual weight terms he only has 1lb more on his back. Maybe it wasn’t the strongest of races as it turned out (getting to point in season where plenty of disappointing types on show) but he could do no more. He was second in a Welsh National and has run well enough at Listed level. He is a C2 chaser in my eyes. Nicholls is in decent enough form and, if still in the form of 12 days ago, he wont be far away. I was tempted to go 1.5 points, even 2 – but his jumping can be sticky at times, it is a quick turnaround and it is his first run at the track.
Of the rest..Forgotten Gold clearly has a chance. Maybe these two will fight it out. (the ‘fun bet’ forecast klaxon sounding?) He is best fresh and seems to go with more enthusiasm after a break so has that to prove. That race also fell into his lap last time out, a ferocious pace collapsing and a bit like Benvolio’s race it wasnt the strongest in the end. He could do no more than that though. He is better RH and has to prove he truly stays this trip on a track like this. Benvolio also has more improvement in him, potentially. I wouldn’t be shocked if he went in again but my gut/head said Benvolio may have too much. Maybe it isn’t too far from a coin toss though – let’s hope I have called correctly.
I can’t really have anything else. Warden Hill ‘goes well fresh’ and has some ok Novice form. He is in the ‘could be anything’ category so deserves respect – but his wins were at lesser tracks in C4s, in small fields. This will be a new experience and on that basis, at the odds, I am happy for him to prove me wrong. This is a more lengthy break than he is used to also. I am happy to take on the rest for one reason or another. Pipes have started to go off the boil again (2/32 last 14 days) and I suspect Amigo was tuned up to the minute LTO – it can’t have been a prep for this!! In any case he has enough to prove and is a bit short.
PACE…I don’t think it will be lacking in here – while no consistent front runners it should be run at a decent pace and the selection can lead if he wants to – he stays further – and usually races prominently. No complaints on that front.
4.45 Chelt: Kilmurvy (16/1<)
4.10 Chelt: City Supreme (12/1<)
H Fry Mares (10/1< guide): 5.20 Chelt: Meribel Millie
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing much today. Those trainers highlighted in the ‘Craven’ post have been doing ok – well Gosden has been in superb form and had a decent priced winner yesterday at 5/1. Saeed Bin Suroor cam to the party with a 7/1 maiden winner to improve his impressive stats – he seems to have a few nice ones today, so they will be interesting to watch! I hope some of you may have been on a few of those.
POST COMPLETE (08.40)
Donations…Join The Club…
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So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016, which will be released at some point this week.
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