A decent enough run from Copper Birch – no excuses or issues there. I took a semi-educated chance that he would stay – and I don’t think he did. He traveled well until they began to head home and the petrol appeared to run out. Barton Gift won the race well and he is a funny horse to get right – he was 0/6, 1 p in C3s before this, but as noted it was a weak class 3. He had proven stamina. I was more put off by his most recent form, but on reflection maybe I was too harsh – while he has decent form on soft, it would appear he hates heavy – now 0/8, 0 places – I still thought those runs were a bit too poor (maybe I should have just put a line through them) and that he may get in a pace battle and ruin his chance – I should never doubt Nico really – he is turning into a wonderful jockey. He also had a change of headgear again and that may be an interesting ‘way in’ for him in the future. Fingers crossed I tip him to victory at some point in the next couple of seasons – at this level he is a pretty decent stayer at his best.
Anyway, we move on. Unlike on Monday, no feeling of deflation. These long distance chases are tricky -weighing up those with proven stamina against those who you think may improve for the trip. We get to test ourselves in a similar test at Cheltenham…
Any Currency – 2 points win – 8/1 (BetB/BV/PP/Lad) WON 8/1>6/1
Morney Wing – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) * UP (never lay up,ground/not good enough)
*prices as of 08.30
Maybe a long, hard, mentally draining (but most enjoyable and profitable to date) jumps season has finally caught up with me – there have been signs in recent days – especially that period where I was backing horses with more letters than numbers in their form figures! 🙂 Is this the pinnacle – betting 2 points on a 13 year old.
There is method to my madness – despite the number of runners, on all known profile evidence and form, this isn’t a very strong race and many in here have had long and disappointing seasons. Hobbs throws three darts – suggesting it may just be a nice trip out for the stable/owners – an end of year ‘bring you horse’ party – and who could blame them -another fine season. I will get onto his shortly.
Any Currency…what a fine old servant. I know he is getting on but he is lightly raced in recent years, he comes alive on decent ground and rarely runs a bad race on it. He is a prominent racer, sound jumper and a grinder. He also tries his heart out – he wants to win. Oh, and he will stay. He may get outpaced a couple from home (although by what I have no idea) but will rally up this hill. I have an image of Coleman sending him to the front, slowly stoking him up, and winning this in splendid isolation. In handicapping terms he is very well treated.
I know it was a cross country a couple of starts back, but it was a handicap chase still…in November he raced of OR 152 – 3 runs later and he comes here off OR130!!?? He was beaten under 2l off that mark. Has there ever been such a drop,so quickly, for a horse seemingly in the form of his life? And, look at the horses in those races – In November he had Jossies Orders in front of him, and Bless The Wings just behind (who ran a stormer in the Irish National) Now, his last run was clearly the target. But, last year after another brave effort he was put away straight away. Connections must surely be thinking that given his age, they may as well have some fun with him. Also, The Cross Country is no longer a handicap, so I don’t think it matters what he does in these races now – and they may have one last hurrah next year. Those types of races get some stick – but they went a decent enough pace LTO to my eye and it is a Festival race- he had the right horses around him. I am struggling to see how he wont run his race here, in near ideal conditions. A couple of furlongs further would help but I don’t see much in here getting away from him. He is 3/6,4 places in handicap chases OR130 or below. It is just whether he is primed for this, or it is a potter around before a summer break. I suspect it is the former, and if so, we should go very close here. (there is my bullish confidence again, hopefully well placed this time!) The other thing is the headgear – Coleman said he enjoyed having the hood removed LTO, it sparked him up more and it was the best he has traveled. The same again please!
Morney Wing – well given I have a 13yo warrior onside I wanted to go with a younger more progressive horse and this one fits the bill. To my eye he looks like a dour grinder and this test will be interesting. The ground is an unknown unknown, rather than a known unknown! – ie, he hasn’t had enough/any runs on good/soft ground for me to know if he handles it or not. He ran on good or better a few times in Ireland, and while non-handicaps,didn’t disgrace himself. He doesn’t look to have a pounding action. On paper/breeding stamina is also a big question – he may not stay – but to my eye he does look like he will just gallop and may be a The Young Master type who on breeding shouldn’t be a 3m+ chaser. Charlie Mann is in the best form he has been in for some time- they are all generally running well. He is 0/17, 1 place at the track – given the nature of racing here I can’t think he has sent many with chances- and his charge is 14s. He looks interesting and has form at this level. He is only going one way and this test may reveal more as to ideal conditions in the future.
Of the rest…well, where to start? I looked at the Mulholland horse – another unexposed one. But he has only won a weak C4 chase, has stamina to prove (as does Morney) and is out of form. If he was strong in the market I would be concerned as he is unexposed. The rain came the last day – that wasn’t good ground he raced on- which may be the excuse, but even then it was a laboured effort given he was 6/1 and clearly fancied to run better. He is usually held up – not ideal around here – and this big field is a test. I may have that wrong, he could out-run his odds- albeit he does appear weak in the market. Azure Fly has had 4 goes here, never placing- a character,stamina/big field form to prove, trainer 2/95 here. Bertie Boru- hold up type and surely his jumping won’t hold up here, also appears not to stay these extreme trips. He has threatened a few times this year but has then let me down. Johnson not on. Woodford County – long, hard season, poor LTO where following rain there were no excuses- laboured. And his level of form not strong – does stay well though, could be up there if bouncing back. Jumping suspect sometimes also.
Thomas Wild- a ‘summer jumping’ type for me, never too much strength to his form, but Johnson picks him. 0/9,3p 12+ runners and he is being asked to win from a career high mark aged 11. Tough ask. Financial Climate – gets his ground but that is about it. He was stuffed in this race last year I believe and I don’t think he stays – he also detests fields with more than 7/8 runners in them…now 0/14,4 places 8+. He does get a headgear change though. Godmejudge – has the back form to win this. He stays at his best but looks completely out of sorts. I can see why some may have a stab at the resurrection – but I can’t find excuses for recent runs and it is a leap of faith. The odds could justify that – not for me. Robin Dickin’s is 0/4,0 p at the track, 0/5,0 p very undulating tracks,0/6,1 p LH and has an almighty big stamina question mark next to his name. I think he has proved he won’t stay (but then I kind of thought that about Eastlake in the Topham, mistakenly!) Rebeccas Choice has lost his way a bit. A decent run wouldn’t be a total shock given past form over CD but he is 0/6, 0 places in the last 2 years – when winning here, or anywhere in more recent times he has come into the race in much better form. It may be a ground thing though, and this good may see him in better light. Enough questions though – a place wouldn’t be a shock.
Mysteree – the other lurker, unexposed one who could be dangerous. But, he has only won small, weak chases and this is a completely new test for a trainer who doesn’t do that well here. He plugged on,rather than stayed on LTO, and does now have some questions to answer – especially here over this very undulating track. At the odds – 7/1 – I was happy to overlook – his jumping is also sticky at times (which it is allowed to be given his inexperience) Arguably Morney Wing has better chase form on paper to date, both with the same unexposed profile and open to improvement over this trip. He is twice the price. Hi Vic – just no. I can’t back him on current form/profile. Big bounce back/step up required. Ruapehu needs to step up on C4 efforts and was rather poor LTO. Good ground is his thing but also has a break to overcome. This big field is also a new test and his jumping is dodgy at times…as is Hollow Blue Sky who was disappointing for me last time. He is now 0/13, 2 places beyond 2m6f and while I thought he may scramble home LTO, I really cant see him lasting out over this trip, at this track. His jumping may not hold up for that long either. Also 0/10,4 p when ‘good’ is anywhere in the going.
Canas Toi is obviously interesting but this is a big step up on anything he has done to date and he has a break to overcome. He unseated on his last visit here, in a large field. Enough to prove albeit he is going the right way – 5/1 was short enough also. I couldn’t take that price with any confidence in a race of this nature. I think that just leaves Finish The Story – who has been disappointing and must go down as a doubtful stayer now, and esp over this trip at this track. He is also better with cut although maybe Good is fine. I can’t have him though.
So, I think that is the lot covered. There are a few who would not shock me if they ran better – Rebeccas Choice,What’s Left chief among them,followed by the Russell horse. I can’t really be having any of the others on what they have done in their careers and this season to date. Happy to be left head-scratching. (Godsmejudge wouldn’t be a fall of my seat result either,on very old form- maybe that Scottish National,at his age then,has ruined him)
PACE – well there are no out and out front runners – plenty of pace pushers so it will be interesting who takes it up. Coleman may be able to dictate if he wants – which would be perfect – esp as he can then try and stretch them and use all of his stamina. Morney Wing also likes to be up there, as does Mysteree. I see no excuses on the pace front. We should get a good spin for most of the way, until the bottom of the hill at least…
That is all for tips
James Fanshawe Kempton: 6.50 Kempton – He’s My Boy (any odds)
This angle has been dormant for the last couple of months. The original post is around somewhere and I will try and dig it out. It is simple. Fanshawe’s handicappers here that ran on the Flat Turf LTO. The figures in the last 5 seasons are now: 103 bets / 34 wins / 62 places / 33% sr / +120 SP / AE 1.8. 2015 finished on 8/22, +16 points profit.
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
4.55 Bev: Jintshi (any odds) – A micro qualifier for the Beverley system from my new report. I believe I have shared this one before the other week.
5.20 Cheltenham: Authorized Too -9/1 – Williams is 2/6,3 places with his handicap hurdle debutants in last year and with an impressive speed figure (on ones I use,via Geegeez) he looks interesting – as does the jockey booking. He could have plenty more to come, or not be very good! Nicholls also does well with the same type here, which makes his Simon Squirrel interesting, albeit he is weak in the market (then so were the two NHF horses at Wincanton the other day who doubled in price and won well!)
That is all for today.
POST COMPLETE (09.40)