Bar watching a horse or even a jockey for that matter, get seriously/fatally injured there are not many worse feelings in this great game of ours than being rather confident about a horse’s chance, backing them accordingly, only to watch them fall out the back of the tv set. I don’t know what went wrong with old Carrigdhoun today but it was rather deflating.
Unless something comes to light I won’t go looking for excuses. On paper he had everything in his favour – no chinks at all, and if I looked at that race 1000 times I would come up with the same conclusion – at the odds. Maybe he had a harder race than I thought last time. I mean even old Harry The Viking ran better than him! 🙂 The young progressive winner did it well as he was entitled to do, and at least I got that right. But, we got no real run for our money there so apologies. As I would hope you picked up in my write up, I was rather bullish about him, which compounds the misery! Bloody horses, eh?!
We move on, clinging onto a 1 point profit for the month I believe. +125.25 points for 2016 to date. And we have the Scottish National to look forward to – those of you long standing readers will recall we nabbed the winner last year, at 33/1 – banishing Grand National 2015 disappointment to the dustbin. The same again this year would be welcome and I will try be trying my best to do just that.
There is a new post up with some stats/pointers for The Craven Meeting, starting tomorrow.
Copper Birch – 1 point win – 13/2 > 8/1 (UP)
While this race does have a feel about it which suggests ‘anything could happen’ – I have gone with one who still has time on his side, from a trainer who has a decent record here with his chasers and a horse who has one piece of eye-catching form – which was over this course and distance in March 2015. In that race, which was much much deeper than this he ran a decent third – he seemed to cruise into it turning in before the very well handicapped Jonjo runner past (I was glad he did!) as well as one other. But, he stayed on there for third – it wasn’t a ‘knackered out on my feet’ plodding job over the line – he jumped really well up the home straight suggesting he had something left, and ran that way to the line. He just bumped into a couple. He was also was a few pounds higher there. Now, stamina is a question, especially being by Benefial (they could do better over these trips) but this better ground may help out. I think he needs some cut, but the lack of heavy should help him see it out better – or ensure he may have more energy come the line. This is only his second start over a trip like this and I was intrigued enough to have a go. Moloney is back on and after his early UR last time he won’t have had a hard race. The Pace is also a positive – he is a hold up horse – never ideal – but there are a couple of front runners in here and plenty of ‘pace pushers’.
If he stands up – and he is usually a sound enough jumper (also has the pro back in the saddle) – I would like to think he may look like the winner as they turn for home – it is then just whether he stays or not – he won’t get a better opportunity than in this race and it should help answer that question once and for all. At 13/2, happy to take the chance.
Of the rest…well Nail M is interesting of course, but at 4/1 I found myself unconvinced. This ground may be too lively for him and it may happen all too quickly- his best form has been in a swamp and even then he has still found one or two too good. He gets new headgear here – it may help, he may hate it – and he needs a strong rider, which he gets also. The yard though is still in and out of form. IF he ran like he did behind Woodford County here then clearly he won’t be far away. I can’t say he can’t win and have had 1/2 on, as he is a system bet – but personally I have a few too many doubts, in the context of his price.
On plenty of old form you could make some sort of case for nearly every other horse in here – plenty of old timers – and maybe one of them will bounce into life- but for the life of me I can’t work out which one it will be. They all have plenty of questions now and I am happy to take them on. We backed Alpha Victor LTO when he disappointed – he has a lot of letters next to his name now and is now 0/7, 1 p going RH – if this race were LH I may have been more tempted – I took a chance on his odds LTO, and he is being backed again. All about his mind. He stays and the ground should be fine. If he runs up to his best he will out-run his odds, for sure. But, he could as easily refuse/be pulled up. I think Golden Milan is a bit too inexperienced for a test like this, and now has plenty to prove. UD’O – I am struggling to imagine him seeing out this trip – I don’t think he stays 24f, and can be a sulky bugger – like a few in here. I could go through them all but you get the idea.
Nothing would be a total shock – but I suspect many of these will falter and you can’t keep making excuses for horses. As we saw yesterday, there is an increasing risk of the unexpected when backing horses of a certain vintage. Copper Birch has been running well enough this year and maybe he has always wanted a trip like this on Good to Soft. If he stays I think he has the class (in any case this is a very weak C3- so weak even Barton Gift may have a chance at a level he has fluffed at a few times) and is certainly well handicapped. A Paul Moloney stalking special is the order of the day!
That is all for tips.
3.00 Exet: Nail M (12/1<) 2nd 4/1>10/3
3.35 Exet: Thatchers Gold (12/1<) 3rd 12/1
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing today. Yet to look at Newmarket with my stats etc. I am only 10 mins up the road and it is pouring down – not sure if raining there but nothing worse than softening ground on the flat with unexposed horses – adds a level of complication to the puzzle.
That is all for this evening.
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