Another frustrating day for the official advice, but that is how it goes. Al Co ran a blinder and out-ran his odds as expected. He ‘bumped into’ one there, a lovely 50/1 shot. On all known form that was not a total shock (that chase is that kind of race) – it wasn’t far fetched to cobble together a case for him, especially given the price etc- clearly I didn’t!
Goonyella ran well enough for 5th in the big one. My thanks to his rider for ensuring a small profit on the race if backing him EW – ‘officially’ a 4 point loss on the race. The rain, both last night, and more so during racing, ruined many a well touted horse’s chance before they had even run, including a couple of the tips.( I didn’t expect it to be heavy) The Last Samuri ran a belter and had the rain stayed away I have no doubt he would have won that. Rule The World – well on the stats profile that I used he was some stats buster – but, if you ignored that, on one piece of form – his Irish National second last year – he was a valid selection and I can certainly see why many would have backed him at 50/1 – well done if you were one of them, top punting. He certainly had the class on paper, esp over hurdles. My search for backing a National winner goes on! More focus on previous ‘national’ placed horses maybe – Goonyella had placed in the Scottish version. It is never about the money with this race – it is just another race, betting wise – but there is a sense of professional pride in wanting to nab it. My wait goes on. (did I hear Mr Pricewise right on The Morning Line – he hasn’t tipped the winner in 30 years?,,,blimey, I hope my wait isn’t that long)
So, ‘officially’ a 1 point profit on the week I think. Given what happened last year, I will take that. Given my approach I often need one decent priced winner 16/1+ to ensure no damage is done at a Festival. I then need to find one more winner to ensure a profit of sorts. That happened at Cheltenham, but with only one winner this week, not too much to shout about.
Of course, the blog is more than just ‘official’ tips and is full of info and ‘ways in’. The ‘ dailynotes’ did well enough through the week, highlighting a few winners and a 66/1 2nd. For those in the Members Club – They were emailed micro system bets (from my Aintree Guide) each day. Two horses were highlighted in the last today, one of them dotting up at 16/1. A fine way to end the day for me personally. (on top of 11/4 and 9/1 winners on day 2 for the systems)
Away from Aintree…thanks to Nick who highlighted Loughalder – the comments on this blog are always worth reading as all of you are fine judges. I had tipped him a few times hence he was highlighted, but I was so immersed in Aintree I missed him – he romped home at Chepstow – 16/1. Top Tug won at 9/1 for Alan King’s micro angle. A fine day indeed.
Also thanks to a few of you blog readers – Shaun, Andy and friends who made Day 2 enjoyable – we shared a few pints and that was rather good fun. I did enjoy hearing how they cheered home Empire of Dirt at Cheltenham in splendid isolation – I rather enjoy cheering home winners track-side, that no-one else has backed! 🙂 (yep, one of those annoying types!)
Anyway…
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Bar the systems below, nothing on Sunday. There are a couple of 3m chases but I am going to give my head a rest. I will also be travelling back from Liverpool to Suffolk to spend a week or so at ‘home’.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Jumps Handicappers
3.20 MR – Coozan George (12/1<) UP
3.55 MR – Calin Du Brizais (12/<) NR
4.15 Ffos Las – Little Boy Boru (12/1<) UP
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Enjoy what is left of your weekend.
Josh
28 Responses
Cheers mate. Can’t win ’em all. Was on Ubak, steadily, then rapidly downhill from there.
Paul
In the context of ‘supposed pro-gambling,’ it’s just another race?
Like Phil Bull once said, ‘You can’t create a good bet, you have to wait for them to come along.’
I’m a bit gutted as just going through results realised I missed one at Gowran Park, got one race seriously highlighted 4.35, Toe The Line, 12lb clear top rpr better speed figs, only one to have won at distance, a more recent run & early on there were two around evens. Few hours l8r D Weld has had a treble & his horse is 4/7f & TTL out to 2/1, won by 9l’s, I knew it! I knew it! What was I doing? Somewhere between counting winnings from Maggio & working out how much I stood to lose if Goonyella didn’t place.
Sometimes the big-raced hype is just a massive distraction – I did Toptug on my C4 Pick6 & was my only winner on the day there..
PS: Do put D Weld’s filly Discipline in ur Notebooks, not that u’ll ever get a price, just not one to oppose (esp 10f Leopardstown) lightly. & A King in his final Weekender column of this season suggesting his juvenile hurdler Oceane (recent 2nd to top class Adrien Du Pont on unfavorable soft ground) is set for a flat campaign & reckons could land a decent handicap, all figures I got suggest very likely.
PPS: Next year, a 10yo, no headgear, perhaps a 1/1 point-to-point winner, perhaps a previous minor or major National placing, should do nicely.
[Notice Many Coulds won as 8yo, Rule The World 9yo, next year the crop of 2007 [could write a book about alas another story but] should be peaking as chasers.]
Morning josh , slightly off topic ,will you be publishing a set of course stats for the flat this year , have found the NH ones invaluable cheers , got my paypal at the ready .
Hi Michael, yep there will be,released Tuesday or Thursday hopefully. If you enjoyed jumps one you will enjoy this one more. It is better,in terms of layout,usability etc. Look forward to you being the first customer!
Been using the NH on a regular basic, and had loads of winners , regarding flat one ,me subscribing you can bank on it .
How I backed the GN winner. Not all that clever, I guess, but fun.
I eliminated the topweight who should have been 999/1 statistically on the score of weight carried.
I eliminated young and old horses. I then went down the price list excluding the horses which had a P,F or U in their last 3 runs. I stopped at 49.0 on BF.I had 8 left including the winner, which was 42.0 on BF. I backed them all with the same amount. Result – out 8 units, in 42. The second horse would have made me 3 units profit. It was fun to watch the run up the straight.
Good stuff Jack. I think you have done yourself a disservice there..that sounds like a clever and logical approach to me! Well done. I have been able to cheer one all the way to the line..nose second on Sunnihillboy my closest to date. It is good fun and glad you enjoyed it,super stuff.
Interesting that one tipster, Mathematician, picked Rule The World saying the horse fitted his stats profile ‘like a glove’. He began with the warning that he would be considered mad to select a horse that had ‘never won any Chase and never won a race beyond 3m.’ A warning that unfortunately reduced my staking to its usual mean level.
Yep,he is a judge and has an interesting approach. Stats are stats,many different approaches. I have a set one and on the whole has done well this season, same stats etc shortlisted nearly every handicap winner at Cheltenham,for example. Those final two points you make are two of main reasons he was crossed off my list. Clearly he had been crying out for this test all his career..Irish National run may have hinted at that,albeit admittedly I had him as a questionable stayed…but then so were couple if my picks. When picking horses at 50/1, there is always an element of madness! Otherwise they wouldn’t be that price. Mouse Morris clearly a man to be kept onside on the big occasion and in these races. Mr Ryanair will be sending plenty more staying types his way you would guess.
The interesting thing with trends is everyone has got slightly different ones. I personally compared your trends with mine, as well as Ben Aitken’s and what was put up on Sporting life and whilst they all differed slightly and looked at figures from the last 5,10,15 and 19 years respectively the winner was there or there about. Obviously the fact he never won a chase was a big one but not sure what else he broke. I think a massive influence with me getting the winner was the amazing performance of Roque Angel in the Irish National. Mouse Morris doesn’t have a massive amount of horses so when a few of his have ran a blinder you take more notice. Was never going to have his other runner. Given the conditions I tried to find horses which I was pretty sure would stay and also dismissed anything over 11 stone since its one thing winning this on good/soft ground but a different kettle of fish on that ground. It would actually be interesting to compare the stats for the Welsh National given conditions in that are probably much more like what we had yesterday. The last thing which I did was took away anything which has previously ran in the race. I very much pegged The Last Samurai wrong since had him down as a good ground horse so it was a hell of a performance on that ground.
Good stuff. Well, he fell down on a few of mine but I won’t repeat them all. No win 24 or 25f+, no. of career wins. That was probably it but I put a lot of emphasis on those. In reality just looking at Irish National run,and as you say with this year’s Irish Winner (similar type of ‘questionable staying profile?) /trainer in mind, it makes sense. Certainly I am not sat here scratching my head. But then race had that very open feel to it. Mouse is clearly a genius, and with these types. That is lodged in my mind now!! Well done again.
Thanks mate. Its nice to be back amongst the winners given I have had a patchy start in 2016 by my standards.
One for me today which I think worth throwing a bet on is Mwaleshi back down to a class 4 for the 1st time in 3 years. Going back right handed should help. Sue Smith is 3/8 over handicap hurdles at the track in the past 2 years. Trevor Ryan takes off a useful 7lbs and has done well at the track in his short career (3/8 over hurdles lifetime although no winner for trainer). Have to have a bet at 14/1. (B365 feature race)
He is interesting…he beat Maggio in C2 chase in Jan 15. The stars are aligning! Looks like he could get the lead he needs also. Seen a lot worse 14/1 shots! May have a little nibble myself. Did go in notebook after first Aintree run of season where went well for long way. May be more used to hurdles after last run also. Can take a few runs after being chasing for so long I think…jumped hurdles like fences LTO. Interesting.
Mwaleshi beat Maggio 7l in a chase 01/15 and won a G2 hurdle at Kelso in 03/13; has to jump correctly today on this 2nd run over the smaller obstacles and the return to 20f should help.
Whilst trends help shortlist, it’s worth noting current form too and on that basis TLS was a bet y’day being top rated by Timeform (which I don’t usually see), being a LTO winner and with the trainer back to form. EW (40/60) only, of course, but along with the three shorties at Aintree gave a profit.
Did you spot Bally Gilbert in the last at Market Rasen last night Ben, was mentioned in your Cheltenham preview night notes as big as 10/1 with bet365 now down to 9/4
I missed him Rory for one reason or another (unable to keep my eyes open for long last night being one of them!) but glad you absorbed notes and hope you got a price?. By the time I realised I had already posted on here, so thought I wouldn’t say anything! Its going to be one of those days as he romps home!
Hi Josh
Is Bally Gilbert the horse that you mentioned to me when we were talking on Friday in the Princess Anne stand? One of the pair – the other one went to WM.
It was good to see you again after missing you last year – thanks for coming up & saying hello again. Sorry didn’t get a chance to see you before we went – our driver decided not to stay for the last, did have a wonder in the direction of where I think that you said you’d be on Saturday but didn’t see you.
I think the National is becoming more & more difficult now – I managed to back Gilgamboa each-way at 66s in the morning so that covered the losing bets placed on others, also backed The Game Changer without Douvan at the last minute as he looked the next best horse in the paddock. Also good to see Thistlecrack close up – what a wonderful looking & really talented horse.
Anyway, hope to see you next year if not at another track before, will keep monitoring the website & start donating shortly. I hope that this continues to work for you as you have obviously put a fair bit of effort into it, I am also extremely envious of what you doing.
By the way, tried to email through the contact section but couldn’t get to write a message – probably me missing something obvious! Perhaps you can advise.
Regards
Neil
Hi Neil,
Great to hear from you! Yes Bally Gilbert is the one…I missed him, passed me by, and his price has gone. A fellow blog reader text me last night (who was with me at Preview evening) informing me – I was shattered and mind was away from horses after posting! He was the one who used to work upside the Champion Bumper 2nd place horse – and Pauling told us all to look out for him…no doubt he will probably bomb out now!!
Yes, shame I missed you, I did keep looking out for you also – it was good to see those really class horses – Annie Power, Douvan and Thistlecrack really stood out in terms of looks – I backed the forecast in the Douvan race at 2.67/1 – not sure if would have been better backing The Game Changer in without market – agree, picked him to chase him home based on paddock looks – we must be getting better at that!
Contact – ah yes that form does not work – one of many things to b fixed when I revamp the site in coming weeks.
You can email me at info@racingtoprofit.co.uk
Be good to see you at a race meeting somewhere, if not next year! I will be buying my tickets earlier and making sure I get Princess Royal Roof for all three days!
Josh
3 bets for me today.Richard Newland back to form,does well with chasers at market rasen,booking std signifigent.Took 9/2 on Discay and 5/1.Exprss du berlais,Discay wins well at 9/4,his other currently 2/1,the other bet is on hendersons new providence,weak in market but just better value now,lot easier than struggling with Aintree
Well done Gerry, top value punting that- all about the trainer track stats eh!? – Did you do any multiples? Top stuff.
Almost there. Beat everything other than the pegasus. Will take the e/w profits.
Certainly will be adding the winner to the tracker since wasn’t ever in the race until the last furlong or so.
Yep,good EW bet returned…they went hard there – as was clear when our (Your!) one couldn’t get to front – good ride actually, achieved best possible position I suspect, didn’t kill him by trying to match pace….Swinbank/Moloney again teaming up – since I highlighted those two in a post some time ago have had a few go in at decent odds- not sure I have been on many of them!!
Was looking at that horse for a few moments josh but passed it by,he might have winner in next too,y horse has drifted badly in live market but 2 fro 3 not bad for a sunday
Ah now josh,if i get 1 winner from 4 im happy haha,i do find though that im way more successfull on sunday than sat,might be fact there is max 2 jumps meetings,numbers are usually smaller and you can flick through stats fairly quick,you might get one or two that standout,Newland was sort of at the back of my mind for a while and he had a quiet spell.could be his horses prefer better ground and i think he does well over summer months,once he hits form he tends to have a purple patch
Yep agree..small yard as well, so if there were any issues – colds, problems with feed, virus etc probably likely that affects every single horse. And as you say, may be a ground thing – always has been one to plunder a few summer pots from memory. Will have to dive into his ‘summer stats’ at some point. They are usually well backed when fancied though so need to catch them early, which you did today.
I can’t ever remember a maiden winning the National before yesterday. Do you have the software to check that out? on the basis of him never winning over fences RTW was one of the first horses i discounted. Shows how little I have learned over the last 50 yers
Haha indeed…that was one thing that had to be overlooked – and like you that was very much my thinking. Certainly none in the last 5 years – I can look back to 1997…. have just looked…. from 1997 – before this year, it was 0/73, 4 places…(those yet to win a chase). Most of those were 1997/8… from 1999 onwards it was 0/27, 0 places before this year.
Those with 0,1 or 2 chase wins were 2/230, 20 places before this year, now 3/239, 22 places
That’s how it goes. But, as we have seen with that research I did the other day – in 3m+ handicap chases, those with no chase win going into such a race have a perfectly good record, in line with all those with 1+. But, the GN is no normal handicap chase – but maybe it is getting to the stage where it should just been seen as that. Plenty to ponder! Not many run in this now without a chase win. And, at 50s, you have to overlook some things!