Members Report: 11/04/16 (COMPLETE)

Not much to report from Sunday. Those of you who read my report on the Cheltenham preview a few weeks back may have noted the Ben Pauling bumper horse who he highlighted on the night. He ran on Sunday, and ran well, but was only good enough for second. I only realised he was running last evening after I had posted – he was 10s I think earlier, and 4s when I looked. I would be lying if I said I had nothing on him! He was backed into 2/1 come the off. The front two there could be decent animals – Ben really rates his one, so the winner could be useful. It will be interesting to track their careers. 

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Given that Redcar are racing today I have pulled together the ‘track profile’ for the course. Having had a flick through the card I don’t think they point to too many potential bets, but this profile is there for you to use all season. (do use it to have a good look yourself. Many users of the jumps version I produced have had fun this winter, and this flat version promises more of the same) This is another pre-cursor to the full report that I will be releasing at some point this week. For now…

TRAINER TRACK PROFILE: REDCAR 

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At some point today I will pull together some stats for The Craven Meeting, which starts on Tuesday. Hopefully there will be a few trainer stats that will help you nab a few winners over the three day meeting.

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Horses….

TIPS

3.40 Kelso

Carrigdhoun – 2 points win – 9/2 – PU/UP (two letters I didn’t expect to be writing – a rare inconsistent run)

After much thought and deliberation I have concluded that, at the odds, this is THE bet in the race, for me anyway. 

Let’s start with the selection. He is in form, on a winning mark, and ticks every box for race conditions. He has the class, track form, is in form, and will relish the fact that there is now ‘good’ in the going description. He can lead, but does not have to, should be in the right position, and, touch wood, is usually a sound jumper. Two runs ago he ran very well in the race Many Clouds won, and went well for a long way. He finished close to Unioniste. In the recent past he has chased home Virak in a C2 handicap chase – off 131. He races off 120 here with claim. Last time he ran a cracker, over a trip that would have been too short. Interesting. Saved for this race maybe. In handicap chases…he is 1/4, 4 places at the track. 2/5 on good to soft and has won on good. This mark is fine and the jockey knows him, 0/5, 3 places on him in such races. He has won chases here and there shouldn’t be any problem on that front. Despite being 11 this is only his 14th handicap chase. I am struggling to see why he won’t go very very close here and at 9/2 I want to be on him. He is a 2 pointer – a sign of my developing confidence as to his chance. I think he should be fav. The only niggle is the pace – and this is simply down to the jockey. A few like to get on with it and he can’t get in a pace battle – if he is sensible we will be fine. He isn’t a sulker if he doesn’t lead, just a questions of saving energy etc. 

Of the rest…

Well the top two have a chance but their odds reflect that and they are probably the right price, if not a bit short – actually they shouldn’t be shorter than the selection for me.  Nakadam is unexposed and I expect him to give the selection most to think about – a ‘saver forecast’ maybe at 14/1. But, he does have to step up and that was a weak race LTO that isn’t working out. His rating would indicate he does need to improve. Were it not for the selection (who looks the only exposed horse likely to run up to his mark) he would have an outstanding chance. He is going the right way and is clearly better than this mark. He is still learning and does make the odd error. But, I won’t be shocked if he won – 3s is short enough though. Mysteree is also unexposed but has won weak chases I think. He ran well the last day but does need to step up and prove himself at this level. He is entitled too. The days rest and jockey bookings leave me head-scratching a bit though – why isn’t Buchanan on? (owners maybe, not sure)

The rest…Fiddlers Reel would be dangerous if building on that last run but the bounce factor is a live danger,(was a hard race LTO) as is the fact he is 13. He is 0/5,2p at the track and this extra furlong has stretched him in the past (won over 25f). Harry The Viking – I can see why on bits of pieces of form, and at the odds, some may be tempted to have a nibble. I have given up on him and won’t be backing him again – sometimes you have to say enough is enough, and I have reached that point. His last two runs have been abject and I see no reason why he should bounce back here. Maybe it is mental and today as he strode out of his box this morning he wants to win – if so he is a danger to all. He has form on good back in the day but does look to need a slog these days. He is just slow and very one paced and has become frustrating. He just doesn’t win every often. There is quite a bit of pace on paper in here, which would help, if he can keep in touch. On this ground, it may be happening too quickly. He may pop in at some point – I wont be on him when he does. Scotswell is badly out of form and I see no reason why he should suddenly bounce back – the market will be a guide for him, and also I think when James Reveley is booked back on – that may be lump on time. Chicago Outfit usually needs his first run and is 0/14, 1 place over 8/1 in handicaps – the market is an indication. He will be up there for some way, until lack of fitness tells. They may hold him up, given I don’t think he is here to win, which would improve our chances even further. 

The top three in the market are the only ones who look sure to run their race for me. If the selection runs up to his mark the other two are going to have to improve markedly on what they have shown to date. Bar accidents we look sure to be exited jumping the last two here, and after that, who knows! 

Good Luck

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That is all for tips 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS

NONE

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

4.00 Redcar: SpecialV – goes for Brian Ellison. She is in my tracker. Firstly I watched her at Southwell on her last start where she was nothing but game – ears back – she really wanted to win. That is a good quality at this level. Also, and more importantly maybe, Ellison was interviewed after the race – he really liked her and said that she would relish the mud on the flat. I added her into the tracker on the back of that. I haven’t even looked at the market yet but if Ellison is right, she could well be interesting in this race. 

4.20 Windosr: Mulled Wine…7/1 – Best appears to have a new approach with handicap debutants on the turf given that he is 3/11, 5 places with such runners in the last year – getting better at plotting/exploiting lenient marks maybe – or getting better horses. He is 1/5 at the track with such runners. In what looks at open race, with a few unexposed types, 7s isn’t a bad price given this ‘way in’. The trainer is in form also, and at lest we know that this one is fit. The ground would be an unknown on paper, as it would be for a lot in here. As is usually the case with this type, the market may guide. 

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POST COMPLETE

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Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline.

So far members have received my Cheltenham Stats pack for free (worth £17) and an exclusive report for Aintree. There will be something for Punchestown and plenty of stuff for the Flat will be sent out in the coming weeks/months. Members will also get a near 50% discount on my new Flat Guide: Trainer Track Profiles: Flat 2016,  which will be released at some point this week. 

Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also. 

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

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(at the moment there is no difference in ‘service’ for want of a better word between those two amounts above… you all get added to the same email lost. At the moment it is about the value you place on the blog etc – eg many of you may back the tips to different amounts..those on £5 per point may think £12 suits them,those betting £20 per point may think £17 is reasonable, for example)

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PLEASE NOTE: WHEN JOINING THE DONATIONS CLUB YOU SHOULD RECEIVE AN EMAIL ASKING YOU TO JOIN MY LIST, AT WHICH POINT YOU SHOULD GET SENT THE WELCOME EMAIL STRAIGHT AWAY. IF YOU DO NOT RECEIVE ANYTHING, PLEASE DO EMAIL ME AND I WILL SORT IT OUT. THERE CAN BE PROBLEMS WITH MY SYSTEM AND CERTAIN EMAIL ADDRESSES. Thanks, and apologies in advance. Email: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk  – or just hit reply to any of the emails I have sent you. 

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ONE OFF DONATIONS OPTIONS…

Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

£3 Today: Donate HERE  |£5 Today: Donate HERE£7 Today: Donate HERE  | £12 Today: Donate HERE | £17 Today: Donate HERE

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

23 Responses

  1. Many thanks for taster,will be first time at the flat so will be using more than my own analysis,the one nugget from windsor is the Furtado/De Sousa combination 45% with 4yo+,just one yrs stats to go on but will be interesting if their good fortune continues,they have 2 tomorrow,just be lucky 3.20 and brideys lettuce 4.50

    1. Thanks Gerry
      SpecialV won n sout against Kemsing who is great at south on longer distance anyway
      And Ruppert boy very good AW horse

  2. Evening Josh,

    I am going for a hat trick of the golden oldies tomorrow. Given your past notes I am guessing you will disagree with me but considering the drop in class and effectively 10lb better off with the jockey claim I think Harry The Viking warrants a 0.5pt e/w bet tomorrow. I think the drying ground will be ok.

    Gerry beat me to the punch but have also had a small e/w bet on both the Ivan Furtado runners given they have a 5/8 strike rate with 4+yr olds over flat handicaps 4/5 in Class 5 or lower. Obviously a small sample size but worth a small bet although you have to take the fitness on trust.

      1. Hi Nick…I just cant bring myself to back HTV anymore – he will go in at some point but he has just become too disappointing. He has let me down when conditions have been seemingly perfect and he has been in some form. I can’t back him now, even at his price. I can, however, see why you would have a nibble at the odds – he certainly has the ability but will need plenty to drop right. Agree about the ground – it is ok in terms of his action etc I think – just then whether it happens too quickly for him. If he can keep in touch, and runs up to his best races in last year, then you should get a run for your money.

        1. I know what you mean mate. I haven’t tipped him up this season so I don’t have your scars. Would probably feel the same if you mentioned Batavir or Ned Stark.

          1. Ah, I have avoided Ned Stark but my Batavir scars are similarly deep!! (Seebright is my Ned Stark I think, and I just know he will go to Perth and well, we know what will happen there!)

  3. Aye Nick,im having small few bets on the 2 horses.He might be the kenneth Slack of the flat this year,hardly be too any qualifiers if it all goes south,im back to minimum bets for flat season,don’t want to blow jumps profits.

    1. Hi Dave, yes you certainly can! All new members welcome. I have just added the relevant links above – I don’t like pushing it too often! (and I will be doing a big push around my new stats guide etc) But yes, feel free to join above, much appreciated.
      Josh

  4. Really like the layout on the stats especially the trainer micros,if your time pressed can miss the obvious sometimes,if you can knock out few points on these alone should be very decent return over the season,well presented,look forward to full issue

    1. Thanks Gerry…yep I realised Jumps one was a bit too stats heavy in places, and far from easy to use as a starting point – it is still decent mind but I think this is an improvement. I think it will be worth it just for the 30 odd trainer micro systems or whatever it will end up being. Glad you like it – should be quite quick to go through a card and use to not down any potential horses of interest, to either back blind or use as a starting point etc.

  5. Hi Josh, Looking through your Stats Guide for Redcar. Where it states Top 3 Trainers, T D Barron is quoted as a 35% strike rate when i think it should be 28%. Just thought that you may want to adjust this before you start sending it out. I’ll be buying it for one!

    1. Cheers Allan I will have a look – my eyes can go a bit square sometimes when staring at the stats in HRB! Despite me trying to be very careful!- yes you are quite correct..the profit is 35.63 (the column right next to SR) and its clear what I have done there I think! Proof reading glasses are getting a clean as we speak!

  6. Thanks Josh.Yes the new flat stats pack looks much more user friendly-looking forward to it’s release.The NH version was a monster which required forensic analysis !

  7. Another winner for Phil Dennis with Mitchum 230R. This lad must be followed this season as he will be challenging for champion apprentice, I think. Still able to do under 8st so will be ideal for nurseries, but getting good rides now.

    1. Yep, he ran well there. I am still sat here perplexed! The only thing I didn’t expect from selection was for him to be tailed off. Very odd – at least thought he would be the one to make fav work. Moving on, swiftly. Clearly having confidence in 11 year olds is unwise!

  8. hi josh noted at kelso 15.40 a younger horse won it age 6 and far less weight at 10-2 and horse was french. Nakadam in his previous race was 16-1 when he came 2nd with the same jockey lernon.

    1. HI Mark, yep he was the main danger as noted in write up – his win was no surprise and got his jumping together – shame mine didn’t run his race – as literally no idea if winner would have still brushed him aside. Weight in handicap chases is a funny thing – suspect he would have won with more on his back – he is just ahead of the handicapper and is improving, and even more so as his jumping gets better – may well put a little run together. He prob would have won LTO but for a couple of errors, unlucky run.

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