Not much to report from Sunday. Those of you who read my report on the Cheltenham preview a few weeks back may have noted the Ben Pauling bumper horse who he highlighted on the night. He ran on Sunday, and ran well, but was only good enough for second. I only realised he was running last evening after I had posted – he was 10s I think earlier, and 4s when I looked. I would be lying if I said I had nothing on him! He was backed into 2/1 come the off. The front two there could be decent animals – Ben really rates his one, so the winner could be useful. It will be interesting to track their careers.
Given that Redcar are racing today I have pulled together the ‘track profile’ for the course. Having had a flick through the card I don’t think they point to too many potential bets, but this profile is there for you to use all season. (do use it to have a good look yourself. Many users of the jumps version I produced have had fun this winter, and this flat version promises more of the same) This is another pre-cursor to the full report that I will be releasing at some point this week. For now…
At some point today I will pull together some stats for The Craven Meeting, which starts on Tuesday. Hopefully there will be a few trainer stats that will help you nab a few winners over the three day meeting.
Carrigdhoun – 2 points win – 9/2 – PU/UP (two letters I didn’t expect to be writing – a rare inconsistent run)
After much thought and deliberation I have concluded that, at the odds, this is THE bet in the race, for me anyway.
Let’s start with the selection. He is in form, on a winning mark, and ticks every box for race conditions. He has the class, track form, is in form, and will relish the fact that there is now ‘good’ in the going description. He can lead, but does not have to, should be in the right position, and, touch wood, is usually a sound jumper. Two runs ago he ran very well in the race Many Clouds won, and went well for a long way. He finished close to Unioniste. In the recent past he has chased home Virak in a C2 handicap chase – off 131. He races off 120 here with claim. Last time he ran a cracker, over a trip that would have been too short. Interesting. Saved for this race maybe. In handicap chases…he is 1/4, 4 places at the track. 2/5 on good to soft and has won on good. This mark is fine and the jockey knows him, 0/5, 3 places on him in such races. He has won chases here and there shouldn’t be any problem on that front. Despite being 11 this is only his 14th handicap chase. I am struggling to see why he won’t go very very close here and at 9/2 I want to be on him. He is a 2 pointer – a sign of my developing confidence as to his chance. I think he should be fav. The only niggle is the pace – and this is simply down to the jockey. A few like to get on with it and he can’t get in a pace battle – if he is sensible we will be fine. He isn’t a sulker if he doesn’t lead, just a questions of saving energy etc.
Of the rest…
Well the top two have a chance but their odds reflect that and they are probably the right price, if not a bit short – actually they shouldn’t be shorter than the selection for me. Nakadam is unexposed and I expect him to give the selection most to think about – a ‘saver forecast’ maybe at 14/1. But, he does have to step up and that was a weak race LTO that isn’t working out. His rating would indicate he does need to improve. Were it not for the selection (who looks the only exposed horse likely to run up to his mark) he would have an outstanding chance. He is going the right way and is clearly better than this mark. He is still learning and does make the odd error. But, I won’t be shocked if he won – 3s is short enough though. Mysteree is also unexposed but has won weak chases I think. He ran well the last day but does need to step up and prove himself at this level. He is entitled too. The days rest and jockey bookings leave me head-scratching a bit though – why isn’t Buchanan on? (owners maybe, not sure)
The rest…Fiddlers Reel would be dangerous if building on that last run but the bounce factor is a live danger,(was a hard race LTO) as is the fact he is 13. He is 0/5,2p at the track and this extra furlong has stretched him in the past (won over 25f). Harry The Viking – I can see why on bits of pieces of form, and at the odds, some may be tempted to have a nibble. I have given up on him and won’t be backing him again – sometimes you have to say enough is enough, and I have reached that point. His last two runs have been abject and I see no reason why he should bounce back here. Maybe it is mental and today as he strode out of his box this morning he wants to win – if so he is a danger to all. He has form on good back in the day but does look to need a slog these days. He is just slow and very one paced and has become frustrating. He just doesn’t win every often. There is quite a bit of pace on paper in here, which would help, if he can keep in touch. On this ground, it may be happening too quickly. He may pop in at some point – I wont be on him when he does. Scotswell is badly out of form and I see no reason why he should suddenly bounce back – the market will be a guide for him, and also I think when James Reveley is booked back on – that may be lump on time. Chicago Outfit usually needs his first run and is 0/14, 1 place over 8/1 in handicaps – the market is an indication. He will be up there for some way, until lack of fitness tells. They may hold him up, given I don’t think he is here to win, which would improve our chances even further.
The top three in the market are the only ones who look sure to run their race for me. If the selection runs up to his mark the other two are going to have to improve markedly on what they have shown to date. Bar accidents we look sure to be exited jumping the last two here, and after that, who knows!
That is all for tips
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
4.00 Redcar: SpecialV – goes for Brian Ellison. She is in my tracker. Firstly I watched her at Southwell on her last start where she was nothing but game – ears back – she really wanted to win. That is a good quality at this level. Also, and more importantly maybe, Ellison was interviewed after the race – he really liked her and said that she would relish the mud on the flat. I added her into the tracker on the back of that. I haven’t even looked at the market yet but if Ellison is right, she could well be interesting in this race.
4.20 Windosr: Mulled Wine…7/1 – Best appears to have a new approach with handicap debutants on the turf given that he is 3/11, 5 places with such runners in the last year – getting better at plotting/exploiting lenient marks maybe – or getting better horses. He is 1/5 at the track with such runners. In what looks at open race, with a few unexposed types, 7s isn’t a bad price given this ‘way in’. The trainer is in form also, and at lest we know that this one is fit. The ground would be an unknown on paper, as it would be for a lot in here. As is usually the case with this type, the market may guide.
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