Ah, a disappointing day for the tips, no point in beating around that particular ‘chair/foinavon etc shaped bush’. 🙂 Hopefully you got 1/4 odd on Henri Parry Morgan, who was the only highlight for official tips. I believe that leaves us on +7.5 points for the meeting, which is ok. Hopefully I can build on that tomorrow. There were a couple of winners in ‘the notes’ and Ballyoptic (9/1) got me out of what was becoming a rather large ‘at the races punting hole’. (trainer micro systems found two winners today at 11/4 and 9/1) I won’t dwell anymore. The main tips didn’t run as expected – albeit As De Mee ran well for a long way, before seeming to empty out – which was surprising. I didn’t have Eastlake down as a stayer – I will go back and have a good stare at his profile again – as well at that of Party Rock – which I am still staring at – especially his record when rated OR 130 or below in handicaps. You would have had to overlook a lot with him, but at 33s that was doable, especially given his record in this very race. One that got away. And yes, that is easy to say after. Oh, and the trainer was in red hot form and he was a prominent racer. Hardly anything came from the back again today – everything from near the front, or leading – including, again, over the National Fences.
Anyway. That day is now done. Wiped from my mind. Tomorrow…
Al Co – 1 point win – 25/1 (bet365/SJ/Lad/WH) 3rd
Roc Dapsis – 1 point win – 9/1 (general) UP
Little Jon – ½ point win – 28/1 (Bet365/BV/PP) UP
I have previewed this for my Daily Punt Column and they will be sending that out between 10 and 11am I suspect.
5.15 The Grand National
Silviniaco Conti – 1 point win – PU
The Druids Nephew – 1 point win – PU
Goonyella – 1 point win – 20/1 (general) 5th
Holywell – 1/2 point win – 18/1 (Bet365/AH) UP/PU
Boston Bob – 1/2 point win – 40/1 (Bet365/SJ) UP/PU
4 points total.
Important – Bet365 have a very good offer for this, read the Ts and Cs and bet with them if you can! Cash Back for half stake up to £125 I believe. Using them I have backed the first three of those above to 1pt EW. (Bet365 have already refunded me with cash. MUST be an existing Bet365 customer)
Well I could stare at this race for ever and still not find the winner. Blimey it looks tough. I have used some stats as a guide – as you would expect. I also had some ‘3m+ handicap chase eyes on’ but that didn’t make it much easier! The stats I used… 3+ runs this season / Aged 8-11 / Ran in last 60 days / Won over 25f or further / 6+ career wins / 1+ handicap chase win / Ran C1 or 2 LTO / 10-23 chase runs / 19+ career runs / 6 or more Places (incs wins) in chases.
I allowed a horse to fail one of those stats, as some of the tips do. I think that left a shortlist of: All the tips + Unioniste and The Romford Pele. I don’t think those two will be good enough and I don’t like the way they jump. With the latter he has jumping issues and is usually held up right out the back. It isn’t impossible that either runs into a place albeit I would be surprised if either won – but then again, it is that type of race. Maybe I have just left the winner un-tipped! (am now going to have to throw change at them) Some horses will also respond well to these fences and may jump better than they have every done.
Silviniaco Conti – It is all about whether he stays I think. He has the class, we know that. He loves a flat track – well it is essential. He jumps for fun. He races prominently and may lead. No problems with the ground. It is just about stamina, and it is an unknown, but I had to take that chance. His sire, Dom Alco, has sired the winner of this race. I do have doubts about stamina – not getting the Gold Cup trip – but it could be that is more track related. And around here, we should get a great spin for at least 25f – then it is in the lap of the gods.
The Druips Nephew – He was clearly going to go close last year and I see no reason why he wont go well again here. The ground may now be on the soft side but he has winning form on soft. Good would have been more ideal though. His mistake last year was unlucky, he jumped the fence well, just came down steep and slipped. There was still a long way to go but he looks sure to give it another good go. On my main stats profile (as detailed in post) and stats – him and Many Clouds are the two perfect fits. This has been the target all season and hopefully at one point he will look like the winner! Again, stamina is an unknown but up to 3m or so he should be thereabouts – with all the usual caveats about luck in running etc.
Goonyella – well we know he stays all day and he has ran over these fences a couple of times – maybe getting a ‘sighter’ in The Becher. He has been ridden more prominently recently and they had better persist with those tactics! Out of all of these he is guaranteed to stay and will have welcomed the rain. If he completes I would like to think he will be thereabouts. Again, this has clearly been the aim for some time I suspect and he ran well LTO. He is a dour stayer and let’s just hope he doesn’t get too far back. At the odds I had to have a go.
Holywell – he would have a chance if staying and taking to the fences. We know he has the class and he likes this time of year. He is usually a sound jumper, even though he is small. Again he would have liked better ground. He will race prominently and we should get a good spin for some of the way.
Boston Bob – is clearly a poke – well every horse is in here I suppose. He fist most of the boxes in the profile and he could cause a surprise. He could get too far back though and is usually held up, but you never know!
Of the rest…well I will only mention the great Many Clouds – today he could become a legend and I will be cheering him on to do so. I wouldn’t put anyone off throwing 1/2 a point at him! Sod the odds. I see no reason why he wont go very very close here. I suppose I should mention Saint Are – I dont really see a reason why he should overturn the form – Many Clouds is arguably better than last year, as this chap may be. The rain wont have helped his chance though, but if he repeats last year he clearly wont be far away. He could well win.
I am yet to pick the winner of this is 8 years following racing, the closest being a nose second. Other than that, not too much to cheer at all! This is one of, if not the, most difficult chase I have looked at all year. A right puzzle.
That will do. Good Luck.
NO MORE TIPS today. I have learnt my lesson in the handicap hurdles, race 1 looks far too difficult!
DAY 2 NOTES
Not much to say here. I have no strong views of much of interest to say on the other races. There are some shorties and I would like to see the class horses in the card hack up, for the spectacle. In race 1 – well Arpege D’Alene and Rock the Kasbah are interesting for my ‘6yo LTO Chelt’ angle – which in fairness hasn’t worked yet this week! I have no thoughts on the final race of the day.
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April Trainer (16/1<)
4.40 Chep: Kilmurvy NR
5.45 Chep: Red Devil Star (20/1<) UP
6.05 Chep: Calin Du Briais (12/1<) UP
Alan King Flat (16/1<) : 3.10 Ling – Top Tug WON 9/1>7/1