Members Report: 06/04/16 (COMPLETE)

Credit to Toby Lerone who showed stamina I wasn’t sure he possessed and if I looked at that race again, given the odds yesterday morning, I would take him/that type on again. Not a shock winner, but a frustrating one. He ended up being a decent enough price. I picked the right big priced horse to go with, Double Silver running well enough in second, but never quite getting there. Alberobello – well not sure what went wrong there – maybe he sulked for not getting an easy lead, or he is just not as good as the winner, and had to use more energy to try and match his pace – in the end this may have told. Anyway, we move on. That is the nature of the value game. 

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I emailed out my Aintree Report to Donations Club Members yesterday afternoon. If you are in that club and did not receive it, do email me and I will sort it out. (the Contact form does not work on this site – one of the many things that will be fixed in redesign – email me info@racingtoprofit.co.uk) If some of the micro systems repeat recent history then we will have some fun, – always an if though! (I will be emailing out trainer micro system selections for the three days to Club members) 

You can join my monthly Donations Club at one of the links below, and get your hands on this Aintree report straight away…(via Paypal)

£12 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

£17 per MONTH: DONATE HERE>>

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TIPS

None. The seasons are a changing and there is no jumps racing today. I am happy to leave the flat cards for now for tipping purposes, given the number of unknowns around fitness/going etc. 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

None 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

The micro system in my Flat guide, which is coming together, throws up two potential qualifiers tomorrow that may be worth a second glance…

2.30 Catt – Longshadow (16/1<) UP

3.30 Catt – Roccos Delight (16/1<) WON 6/1>11/4

Some other pointers from my Trainer Track Profile of Catterick (remember these are just stats pointers, and with these I have yet to look at horses/races…)

2.30

The Lock Master -Appleby operates at near 20% with all handicappers here -UP

Dark Ruler  -trainer/jockey are 5/16,9 p when teaming up last 3 seasons in hncps *** This horse is actually a ‘PROFILE‘ horse in my database that I have been tracking. All wins at C4 or below on turf to date (did not run at this class all of last season) IN C4 handicaps, on good to soft or soft he is 1,2,1,1,1 . This trip may just stretch him but he came a neck second over it, in a higher class. He is 0/8, 1 place above 12/1, so the market could be important. – UP

3.30 

Be Royale – Appleby again. UP

4.05 

Stormin Tom – trainer/jockey 6/31,14 places in handicaps here. UP

Sherman McCoy – goes for trainer who is 2/7 with those returning after 90 days to track (a more tentative stat perhaps) 3rd

4.35

Legal Art – Ellison has a 20% sr with all his handicappers hereUP

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Finally…

7.15 Kempton – Mikro Polemists -16/1 I highlighted Ellison/SDS stats at Kempton the other day – now 3/9,7 places in all races. This one would appear unfancied but I have yet to look at him in any depth. 

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That is all for today.

A review of March will be up this morning and later this afternoon I may record a video of Day 1 Aintree – skip through a few of the races with any thoughts etc. Will make a nice chance from all the words!! 

Good Luck, 

Josh 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

18 Comments

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  • I think we have probably missed the boat a bit but with Jenny Candlish flying (6 out of her last 8 runners have come 1st or 2nd) I had a look at her record in the past five years and she seems to do particularly well this time of year (March/April) particularly with her Class 3/4 handicap chasers running around a 40% clip +51 SP. Today’s winner was actually over hurdles. Her form seems to tail off after this month but certainly worth keeping an eye on for the remainder of this month.

    Nick Mazur 2 years ago Reply


    • You’re right there. Dead gutted I didn’t clock Tanarpino today taking a massive drop in grade: C1 to C4 with a very solid effort in that C1. Rather a blatant value bet that I didn’t notice on last night’s cursory glance through the cards. Well, I had a 1/4 saver on in Hills, but still dead annoying

      There was a nice system for her turf runners in OnCourseProfits March edition I think. I’ve got it saved on my HRB so will notify when there are runners

      Ali 2 years ago Reply


  • I had 2 bets at ludlow today,I took early 14/1 on Double silver which was great value and 3/1 Noches De Reyes which really wasn’t a value bet.you have to take these big price bets,okay it lost but next run will be maybe 11/4.I am leaving flat alone for a few weeks,had small interest in Gods Own on Friday so relaxing day on betting front toorrow ahead of Aintree

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


    • Well done Gerry – value isnt just price, but that price in context of the horse/oppo – for me anyway – for some it is price, some wont bet below 4/1 ever, for example – ie, with the doubts I had about Toby L this morning, 4s seemed short enough – Noche De Reyes – well given his SP, you beat the market, and that was value. Given the way he won, that was a value bet. 3/1 can be value, 4/6, 1/2 can be value. All in eye of beholder though!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


      • Josh, it also depends on your bankroll. There are definitely even money favourites that should be 4/7 that the big bettors plough into but at my level it really isn’t worth betting anything much below 5/1 because a tenner on at evens doesn’t make much difference to my bank but 5 points is a nice boost. Its also about mindset, I remember doing a poll in my local bookies many years ago about what people considered a longshot and it was amazing how many people said ‘anything that isn’t the favourite’. Whereas I consider anything less than about 8/1 a ‘short’ price 🙂

        Steve Veasey 2 years ago Reply


        • Yep I would agree with that. I am £20 per point as you know, – my shorter price tolerance is probably a bit lower than yours, 7/2 – 4/1 – anything less than that and I try not to bother too much. The only way forward for me is to start looking at the biggest prices and working my way down – we will pick enough over time! And as I have said before, to make it worthwhile at that end you have to bet more, and also be correct more – which given odds you should be, but doesn’t make it any easier I don’t think.

          Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


          • I think it really comes down to the context of the race. I generally never tip up or bet anything below 3/1 however if I do I am more inclined to do so on the flat in a smallish field where I think less can go wrong.

            Nick Mazur 2 years ago Reply


  • Its good to see Aintree pushing the national back to end of day, a lot of the big races over this side of the water are later in the card,the greatest race in the world will now get full focus after the event rather like main fight on boxing night,think the simple solution to the balloting out of horses is first 4 home get free entry next year

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


  • Hear hear about the Grand National at the end of the day!!
    I’ve missed about 4 out of the last 5 live due to work commitments-which for some reason have meant that I appear to ALWAYS be working on National day!!
    At least this time I will get to see the greatest steeplechase in the world in real time!!
    Hope we can bag the winner too!

    Mick 2 years ago Reply


  • The National is a great race an we deserve to see the best “National Horses” in it. I agree with those who advocate “exemptions” for past winners/ placed horses. If you win a major in golf you get a 2 year exemption, if you win a golf tournament you get further exemptions on the tour. Too often in racing the National winner has had to effective “retire” as it caps the win of its life with a huge weight /handicap hike, often at an age where it is never going to improve – best recent example is Auroras Encore.

    My suggestion would be to give the winner, a 3 year exemption, allowing it back in any “National” irrespective of mark, then the next 3 placed horses an “exemption” for the following year for the race it was “placed in” – I’d also like to see the handicapper, rule out ANY handicap mark changes off the back of the Grand National.

    It would stop trainers or that should be trainer, from stuffing a race full of 2 and a half mile horses, simply to try to put as many in to win a Trainers Title as he can to the detriment of genuine long distance horses whose goal and aim is the Grand National and not running round for 3 miles before inevitably pulling up!

    I also advocate the idea of a series of 6-8 “qualifying races” aimed at giving the winner exemption and entry in to the National, would be a HUGE boost to some currently small field long Distance races before and just after Christmas…..make the National a real “Championship” race.

    Ian 2 years ago Reply


    • re major golf meant to write 10 years not 2

      Ian 2 years ago Reply


  • Firstly, I dont like the clash of the Masters with the National meeting. OK I can come and go as a self employed person but would like them to be different weeks to avoid the clash. I don’t often see the National as Millwall are usually at home that day, as they are this week!

    At the London racing Club Aintree preview last night Leighton Aspell spoke well. Here are my notes re what he said. They jump about a bit as the host was going through the card that way. Anyway here you go:

    Day 1 – Garde LV is expected to be suited by the track and is a spring horse. Lami Serge is dodgy. A Gorbachev is very classy and will win if he runs ok. Cue Card had a bad fall at Cheltenham and may not have got over it? Don Poli needs blinkers now. Saphir DR is dodgy and avoid according to P Nicholls. Annie Power will follow up.

    Day 2 – Limini is classy and should win on ratings. Ruby thinks she will go on to run at Royal Ascot. Agrapart s on an upward curve. Buiveir Dair is a long term prospect so keep on the right side of next season. Blaklion is classy. He likes Native River a lot. He knows he has jumping issues but think he will be a national horse in time. Yanworth was given a terrible ride by Barry G at Cheltenham. He will win if he avoids Yorkhill but would likely be much closer to him if they race against one another again.

    Back to day 1 – Solar Impulse is improving. Gullamburst in the Topham may go well at a price.

    Grand National – Many Clouds was running out of steam last year but when he hit the wall of sound on the run in he found a bit more to get there. He is in good form and is still likely on an upward curve. Take the 8/1 now as he will shorten. This years race is better than 2015, standard of horse higher. The Druids Nephew has been trained discretely. He is 9lb higher than last year! Be in no doubt the national is a stamina test and a horse must stay. Silviano Conti wont stay. The Last Samuri is on an upward curve but has a bit to find. Can he jump at speed? Holywell has a lack of scope. St Are was chasing Many Clouds last year and will definitely stay and finish but may be outclassed. Unioniste is not fancied to stay or be good enough according to Noel Fehily. Ruby Walsh is easy the best jockey around and was when AP was riding.

    That is it from Leighton that I have scribbled down. He was very well received with an attendance of circa 150.

    I have not heard anything strong for todays racing. I have had tips for Sadie Babes in the 2.00 Catterick but it is well touted around anyway and Ilzam 4.15 Lingfield.

    Looking forward to the next 3 days racing and the Masters and a Millwall win on Saturday!

    Martin Colwell 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,

    Just starting to look forward towards Saturday. Has it been as wet and miserable up there as my weather app has been saying? Beginning to think ground will be Soft all over. You agree?

    Regards,
    Nick

    Nick Mazur 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Nick, yep it has been wet in Liverpool and from chatting to a few more Aintree way, it has been wet there. Rained in night and this morning. Showers all the way through on and off I believe. I cant see how there won’t be juice in the ground, certainly good to soft but agree it could well be soft all over. It does drain well. A bit dangerous making any bets for Saturday at the moment I think. It has made Don Poli more of a value play in Bowl I think at 6/1 – slow the others down – do think CC will win – well I hope he does and will be cheering him home – but there is always a jumping niggle which makes Evens a bit short – I hope he bolts up mind!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • 3-30 CATTERICK 5 ROYAL HOLIDAY won Redcar few days ago 9/1

    Pab 2 years ago Reply


    • my first winner on flat
      mr LACKADAY

      Pab 2 years ago Reply


  • Hey Ian, steady on about exemptions for past Grand National winners, you will have poor old Red Rum turning in his grave lol.

    Rog 2 years ago Reply


  • Oh dear – The Racing Post Stat suggestion for 3.50 Notts “Frosty Berry represents Shane Gray and Ed de Giles who have a 44% strike rate (profit £43.25) when they team up.”

    I may have to pay more attention to them….

    Andy Silvers 2 years ago Reply


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