TIPS/BIG RACE PREVIEWS
Updated results for March and 2016 can be found below:-(right click to open in new tab)
The headline figures…
March-
48 bets / 5 wins / 11 W|P / +10.375 points (advised odds)
2016 to date–
112 bets / 22 wins / 38 w|p / 19.6% wsr / 34% w|p sr / +124.25 points (advised prices) / +£621.25p (£5 stakes) / +£2485 (£20 stakes)
Thoughts: I will keep this fairly brief. It was an up and down month but at the odds I play at these figures demonstrate that you don’t need many winners to make an OK profit. Of course I would have liked a few more winners but those stats do include The Cheltenham Festival, which is arguably tougher than ‘week to week’ racing. There are a few too many letters in the formline for my liking there and there is always room for improvement.
I won’t repeat my thoughts from Cheltenham, other than to say the trainer micros and ‘profile shortlisting’ worked very well, with 4 or 5 decent priced winners tantalisingly close. On another year we could have won upwards of 60 more points. IF the shortlisting continues to work like that in future years, fingers crossed we do have the odd ‘mega’ year.
When starting out on this ‘blogging journey’ I set myself a minimum of +100 points per year for ‘TIPS’, which is an acceptable ‘worse case scenario’ I think. Some years it may fall of short, others may surpass that. (2016 hopefully, given we are on +124.25 points already). Overall a satisfactory, if unspectacular month for the tips. While I reflect on a month by month basis, I very much taker longer term, 3 month, 6 month, 12 month view.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
March
11/77 = -16.9 points
2016-
33/217 = -25.9 points
(April is +10.5 points at moment to limit those losses, and does not include any EW returns you may have placed. I record everything to 1 point win when qualifies. If you follow the micro systems, or any bets for that matter, I would always advise keeping your own results)
Clearly the systems have had a rather bumpy ride, and downward trend, for 2016 so far. This is in stark contrast from August-December (when micro systems were introduced in current form) which pulled in around 80+ points from memory. The jumps handicappers haven’t performed superbly so far, as a group, and I will review these at the end of the month, for 2016 so far. They are due a good run!
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MICRO ANGLE….
As always in these kind of posts I don’t just like to bore you with ‘results talk’.
The flat has arrived, if you hadn’t noticed. While I have been researching my ‘Trainer Track Profiles’ Brian Meehan kept popping up with his maiden runners. So, I did some digging…
RULES
- BRIAN MEEHAN
- Flat Turf
- MAIDENS
- Class 5&6 Only
- April/May/June/July
- Any Odds
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Places | Place% | Races | P/L(BF) | P/L(Plc) | MxOdd | A/E | |
| ALL | 121 | 28 | 23.14 | 105.62 | 58 | 47.93 | 111 | 156.48 | 77.04 | 101.00 | 1.34 |
| 2015 | 30 | 7 | 23.33 | 46.29 | 15 | 50 | 29 | 65.88 | 16.68 | 67.00 | 1.38 |
| 2014 | 49 | 10 | 20.41 | 39.05 | 20 | 40.82 | 43 | 57.88 | 17.46 | 101.00 | 1.38 |
| 2013 | 42 | 11 | 26.19 | 20.28 | 23 | 54.76 | 39 | 32.72 | 42.9 | 51.00 | 1.28 |
Over the last three seasons Meehan as performed well with these runners. He has winners at all odds, as the BFSP return would demonstrate. Of course he has maiden winners outside of these rules, but these were the best ones I could find to reduce the number of bets and increase the profits.
A note of caution…these three years have been his most consistent by some way in the last decade or so. It would suggest he has changed his approach with this type, or buys better, or the market has forgotten about these runners for the time being – or all of the above. The indications are that these results are no fluke – but, there should be some caution. BFSP would appear to be the way forward for this one, esp with his bigger priced runners.
So, if you like your maidens, hopefully this micro angle will help you on your way. I will add the qualifiers from this into the daily posts, under Micro Systems, ‘Other’.
Good Luck
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FINALLY…
AINTREE REPORT….
As you may be aware members of my monthly ‘Donations Club’ have received an exclusive report for Aintree’s Grand National meeeting, which starts tomorrow. It includes trends/stats for 6 races, trainer pointers for every race, 5 trainer micro systems and some angles for those that ran at The Cheltenham Festival LTO. I will be emailing out potential qualifiers from the Trainer Micro Systems to Club Members.
Everyone who donates is helping to keep this blog going in its current form and importantly allows me to try and further improve your experience. I have some exciting plans moving forwards and you can be part of that. This Aintree report is the first ‘exclusive content’ I have sent members, that you cannot get elsewhere on the blog. It will not be the last.
So, now is as good a time as any to join 🙂 Payments are via Paypal, and of course you can cancel anytime. Become part of an exciting future, right here…
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Right, that is all for this post.
I will be back later with a video looking ahead to tomorrow, provided all the technology works and I can think of something interesting to say! 🙂
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7 Responses
Hi Josh
I have been loading HRB with your trainer suggestion of Brian Meehan and I wondered which of the many filter titles you used for MAIDENS ?
I already see £127.8 P/L BFSP set of figures without the maiden filter so could you tell me which of the filters you have used
Hi Norman,
Good question… I use the V4 systems builder in HRB… get your started set, and ‘breakdown’ by ‘race type’ – it is just ‘Maiden’ the ‘normal’ maiden type. So you are drilling down by ‘race type’ (not ‘maiden type’) which is in the first box ‘race data’, 3rd line down, 3rd column from the right on my screen.
Hope that helps, let me know if not.
Hi Josh,
Having small wager on 15.50 Notts First Mohican at 10.1
“Overview ADD Breakdown”…..working on this page
Race Data……first large box with multiple filters
ticked box…..first column “Beg\Mdn\Nvc\Nrs
there’s also a separate box for Maidens in the next column
now I have your exact P/L by ticking the Beg etc box but I never used the “maidens” in the other box
I tried to “capture” the filters I have but this site/your blog doesn’t appear to allow a copy/paste
Ah…Race Data… keep moving your eyes to the right and look for ‘RACE TYPE’….its the 5th column along. Juts want ‘maidens’
You can also use that first column and tick maidens – they are the same figures.
For the Meehan system, I’ve restricted it to class 5 races up to 1m with no more than 14 runners excluding Doncaster and Newmarket. I get 33 wins from 123 selections over 5 consecutive profitable seasons with a total profit of 146.58 points.
Last year B Meehan had 15 winners that were his only runner entered for a meet between Apr-Sep at least 2 per month each best being May (4) & June (3).