An up and down day for ‘blog activity’.(albeit more up than down!) Jeremy Scott got his favourite month of to a good start with a 5/1 winner, while Anthony Honeyball’s bumper runner very nearly held on at 12/1. But, no damage done for anyone backing EW. Batavir didn’t want that rain and kicked a bit too soon….
The tip…Strollawaynow is giving the distinct impression that he no longer wishes to be a racehorse. Clearly the hood wasn’t the reason for his last two runs! I should probably try and avoid that type a bit more in the future, but I keep getting drawn in. That was a very weak race and I don’t know what connections do with him next. Maybe he needs a change of scenery, or career. Moving on….
AINTREE: The Grand National Meeting
I have spent the day pulling together some stats/trends for five races: Red Rum Handicap Chase, Topham Chase, two handicap hurdles and the 3m1f handicap chase. I am also about to go through every race and add some trainer notes, as well as the performance of those that ran at Cheltenham LTO. Finally, this mini report, will include a handful of micro angles, that I have yet to research!
This report will be available exclusively to ‘Donations Club’ Members. I will be sending this out tomorrow afternoon. This is a thank-you to those members of that club, and of course also a lure to get more of you to join 🙂 -always upfront about such things in these parts. I want this ‘Club’ to have many benefits, on top of just your recognition for the long term success of the Tips and Systems -this Aintree report is part of that. (as will future developments on this blog)
I will share some of the stats on here, but if you would like to get this full report, then why not join ‘The Donations Club’ today, at one of the options below 🙂 Up to you, of course…
Alberobello – 1 point win – 6/1 – UP 11/2
Double Silver – 1 point win – 16/1 – 2nd 10/1
*prices as of 08.46
This could be a case of Generous Ransom repeating his Cheltenham run from over a year ago and out-classing these – but at the prices I wouldn’t want to be lumping on him and he makes the market for everything else. He could win this well, and it would be nice to see him return to some form for connections, but he does have questions now, albeit this is quite some drop in class – and he has come down the handicap. I can see why some would lump on at 3s, but that isn’t something I am particularly good at judging in truth, so in general I stick to taking them on!!
Alberobello – well I could hide behind the fact he is a system bet and not have tipped him – but having looked at it, regardless of the micro, he has a good chance in this and 6s is fair (was 7s generally last night for system bettors). If you follow the systems I wouldn’t personally have 2 points on, albeit I may have around 1.5! Albeit strictly, depending on how you follow them, it probably ‘should be’ two points.
The ground should be fine – needs good in the title – and it is meant to be sunny, so should dry out further. Hopefully it isnt that ‘holding good’ which can happen as tracks dry out. That wouldn’t be good news. This one is unexposed enough and should still have more to come in handicap chases. He is a prominent racer who could get his own way, depending on what Harry Skelton does. (Toby L has a slight question over stamina so can’t think they will blast off). This one is dangerous if left alone. He is very consistent and needs good ground. He looks sure to give us a run for our money.
Double Silver – well he is more of a punt and I would want to see money for him – but that is the chance you take at this time of the day. If he does not move in market or drifts, I wouldn’t be overly confident. BUT, this one likes the track, 2/4,3 p over hurdles and is unexposed over fences, 1/4 – she has the class for this level, over hurdles anyway. She has won after a break, will like the ground, and 16s just stood out. She does have a question over well-being, but she is 16s. Also, trainer and jockey, in handicap chases in last 730 days are… 16/74, 34 places and at track…12/29, 22 places. She could out-run these odds.
Of the rest…well the fav clearly has a chance as touched on and so does Toby L – albeit I am not convinced as to his stamina, 0/12,1 p beyond 2m5f now, 0/15,2 places returning 16-60 days (good record withing 15 days). All his form is in the autumn also. Enough questions there for me at the price – he doesn’t wear blinkers for the good of his health either. If he stays, he could be up there. Chicoria is unexposed and stepping up in trip. I looked at him at the price and I hope he doesn’t go in. His jumping has been scrappy to date and he has enough questions – but he could out-run these odds and I may have a muggy ‘saver’, in case he learns how to jump and improves for the trip (which is debatable on damns side, not sires)
For one reason or another i am happy to take on the rest. I should mention Buck Mulligan who has form to take this, but he is 11 now and is 4//44 over fences – he doesn’t win too often – he was second in a C4 3m chase on his last visit here. This looks deeper but then again most here have questions to answer so he could go close – but I would hope something with younger legs beats him.
3.00 Newton Abbot-
Oh damn. Well, hopefully some of you may have read the discussion between Nick and I last night – alas I was too busy with all things Aintree to look at race properly for posting but had a nibble at Farbreaga 11/1 – UP – he is now 11/2 generally. Were he 9s / 10s I think I was about to tip him 1 point win – we backed him last time and if he is going to bounce back it should be in these conditions, at this track, in this small field, where there is the potential that they can lead all the way (that is what they should try and do) I can’t tip a horse that I know has halved in price. He does have questions and could throw in the towel, adding to the scars of those horses I have backed recently who no longer wish to race! – that makes 11/2 look a tad skinny to me.
That is all for tips
April Trainer (16/1 or shorter sp)
2.50 Ludlow: Alberobello UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3.10 Ponte – Ancient Astronaught – 11/2 -JJ Quinn is 2/6, 5 places with his handicap debutants here. He is well drawn and the ground, when like this, is always a bit of an unknown. Jockey is 0/4, 1 place on Quinn’s flat handicappers in last 730 days. He ‘could be anything’ as a few in here could be.
That is all for today.
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