An up and down day for ‘blog activity’.(albeit more up than down!) Jeremy Scott got his favourite month of to a good start with a 5/1 winner, while Anthony Honeyball’s bumper runner very nearly held on at 12/1. But, no damage done for anyone backing EW. Batavir didn’t want that rain and kicked a bit too soon….
The tip…Strollawaynow is giving the distinct impression that he no longer wishes to be a racehorse. Clearly the hood wasn’t the reason for his last two runs! I should probably try and avoid that type a bit more in the future, but I keep getting drawn in. That was a very weak race and I don’t know what connections do with him next. Maybe he needs a change of scenery, or career. Moving on….
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AINTREE: The Grand National Meeting
I have spent the day pulling together some stats/trends for five races: Red Rum Handicap Chase, Topham Chase, two handicap hurdles and the 3m1f handicap chase. I am also about to go through every race and add some trainer notes, as well as the performance of those that ran at Cheltenham LTO. Finally, this mini report, will include a handful of micro angles, that I have yet to research!
This report will be available exclusively to ‘Donations Club’ Members. I will be sending this out tomorrow afternoon. This is a thank-you to those members of that club, and of course also a lure to get more of you to join 🙂 -always upfront about such things in these parts. I want this ‘Club’ to have many benefits, on top of just your recognition for the long term success of the Tips and Systems -this Aintree report is part of that. (as will future developments on this blog)
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TIPS
2.50 Ludlow
Alberobello – 1 point win – 6/1 – UP 11/2
Double Silver – 1 point win – 16/1 – 2nd 10/1
*prices as of 08.46
This could be a case of Generous Ransom repeating his Cheltenham run from over a year ago and out-classing these – but at the prices I wouldn’t want to be lumping on him and he makes the market for everything else. He could win this well, and it would be nice to see him return to some form for connections, but he does have questions now, albeit this is quite some drop in class – and he has come down the handicap. I can see why some would lump on at 3s, but that isn’t something I am particularly good at judging in truth, so in general I stick to taking them on!!
Alberobello – well I could hide behind the fact he is a system bet and not have tipped him – but having looked at it, regardless of the micro, he has a good chance in this and 6s is fair (was 7s generally last night for system bettors). If you follow the systems I wouldn’t personally have 2 points on, albeit I may have around 1.5! Albeit strictly, depending on how you follow them, it probably ‘should be’ two points.
The ground should be fine – needs good in the title – and it is meant to be sunny, so should dry out further. Hopefully it isnt that ‘holding good’ which can happen as tracks dry out. That wouldn’t be good news. This one is unexposed enough and should still have more to come in handicap chases. He is a prominent racer who could get his own way, depending on what Harry Skelton does. (Toby L has a slight question over stamina so can’t think they will blast off). This one is dangerous if left alone. He is very consistent and needs good ground. He looks sure to give us a run for our money.
Double Silver – well he is more of a punt and I would want to see money for him – but that is the chance you take at this time of the day. If he does not move in market or drifts, I wouldn’t be overly confident. BUT, this one likes the track, 2/4,3 p over hurdles and is unexposed over fences, 1/4 – she has the class for this level, over hurdles anyway. She has won after a break, will like the ground, and 16s just stood out. She does have a question over well-being, but she is 16s. Also, trainer and jockey, in handicap chases in last 730 days are… 16/74, 34 places and at track…12/29, 22 places. She could out-run these odds.
Of the rest…well the fav clearly has a chance as touched on and so does Toby L – albeit I am not convinced as to his stamina, 0/12,1 p beyond 2m5f now, 0/15,2 places returning 16-60 days (good record withing 15 days). All his form is in the autumn also. Enough questions there for me at the price – he doesn’t wear blinkers for the good of his health either. If he stays, he could be up there. Chicoria is unexposed and stepping up in trip. I looked at him at the price and I hope he doesn’t go in. His jumping has been scrappy to date and he has enough questions – but he could out-run these odds and I may have a muggy ‘saver’, in case he learns how to jump and improves for the trip (which is debatable on damns side, not sires)
For one reason or another i am happy to take on the rest. I should mention Buck Mulligan who has form to take this, but he is 11 now and is 4//44 over fences – he doesn’t win too often – he was second in a C4 3m chase on his last visit here. This looks deeper but then again most here have questions to answer so he could go close – but I would hope something with younger legs beats him.
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3.00 Newton Abbot-
Oh damn. Well, hopefully some of you may have read the discussion between Nick and I last night – alas I was too busy with all things Aintree to look at race properly for posting but had a nibble at Farbreaga 11/1 – UP – he is now 11/2 generally. Were he 9s / 10s I think I was about to tip him 1 point win – we backed him last time and if he is going to bounce back it should be in these conditions, at this track, in this small field, where there is the potential that they can lead all the way (that is what they should try and do) I can’t tip a horse that I know has halved in price. He does have questions and could throw in the towel, adding to the scars of those horses I have backed recently who no longer wish to race! – that makes 11/2 look a tad skinny to me.
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That is all for tips
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MICRO SYSTEMS
April Trainer (16/1 or shorter sp)
2.50 Ludlow: Alberobello UP
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
3.10 Ponte – Ancient Astronaught – 11/2 -JJ Quinn is 2/6, 5 places with his handicap debutants here. He is well drawn and the ground, when like this, is always a bit of an unknown. Jockey is 0/4, 1 place on Quinn’s flat handicappers in last 730 days. He ‘could be anything’ as a few in here could be.
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That is all for today.
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21 Responses
Evening Josh,
I know we both fancied Fabreaga LTO and he bombed. Surely must be worth a small bet tomorrow at 12s considering he won the race last year of effectively 1lb higher. Have personally had 0.5pt win at the price. I have to think Harry wouldn’t have picked him up if he was on the way and this looks much easier than last time. Any thoughts?
Evening Nick, I think I am going to have to agree with you and follow you in for a ‘just in case’ 1/2 point – i think it is all about tactics and this could well have been the plan – I don’t think it is a surprise that his best runs have come when racing prominently or leading – with little pace in here and such a small field, they should bump him out front and play catch me if you can – that could well see a return to form – and he has conveniently dropped a few pounds for being held up! He has bounced back from poor runs/PUs to win before also. Have to have a go and if they don’t try and lead with him I will be shocked. Of course he could throw the towel in again, but he is a decent price.
Albeit I am building up the scars from horses who look like they may not wish to know anymore!
You two have killed the price! 🙂 At 12’s it might have been a bet, at 11/4 there’s no way…
haha, yep us lumping on with our 1/2s has done it! 🙂 Indeed, 11/2 was skinny given his profile and I wouldn’t have touched that, let alone 3/1- that is a silly price, for one whose problems appear to be all in the mind! The trainer does know when they are ‘ready’ though – remember when Fouravakind hacked up at Exeter in the mud, well backed – in interview he said knew would run well, bouncing at home, kicking down stable door etc – maybe this one is the same – get the impression they like a touch.
Threw a dodgy fiver on Rocky Bender in that race, I know he isn’t very well handicapped but frankly he isn’t a 12/1 shot either, given that everything else in the race is 7/2 or less..
Only had £8 on it lol. Wish I threw a bit more but like Josh said not a horse you can be fully confident about. Fingers crossed.
My pile of horses that I will never be backing again appears to be growing! 🙂 Worth a punt at 12s, no idea who was having a go at 5s down!
Of some interest, V Williams/ RT Dunne 50% combo, Azert de Coeur 4.10 NA.9/2
Channon/De Sousa 50% combo Shahaama 4.55 P 4/1
Just a quick conclusion (bit of a backtrack) to R Hannon’s Stormy Clouds – she wasn’t far behind Juv Crse Rec too & clocked the fastest time of the meet, even before 2yo weight for age allowance kicks in.
I recall Chupalla being described as ‘a ball of muscle, looking more like a 3yo,’ Surely Royal Ascot material!
But Tom Dascombe’s Decadent Times (debut form working out too) was beaten only 1/2 a length (5l’s clear of 3rd) giving winner 5lb comes out with Figure of the meet & knowing trainer habits & hopefully low draw, must be one for Chester.
I agree with this, Decadent times in the tracker …thanks for reminding me to put it in
Will look forwards with interest to the GN meeting special, looks increasingly like it will be Good to Soft Going with enough rain to keep it that way, track drains well nowadays so cant see any excuses for anybody in terms of the ground.
Going to Ludlow today but looks a tricky card to fathom – will watch any JJo runners with interest as he had two fairly hack up at Warwick yesterday, both looked visibly very well and no great form but ran like they looked, bodes well for my only GN ante post (Holywell on at 16’s).
Might have a dabble on Madam Lilibet at Ponty, if she starts, she could run well and more likely to race out of stalls than on NH imho
He’s up there on my figs along with Just A Par whose jockey has a much better record (albeit not Aintree) with his trainer & is double the odds.
Our April trainer 2.50 Lud had 3 winners last April when only one runner at a meet – seems steady money ?
Appears to be steady money, never a bad sign. Provided it is genuinely good / good to soft, then he should be going close – think at Wincanton a few starts ago he probably went off too quickly, if jockey can keep hold of him and save some, should have some fun.
Me already done Doubly Silver EW too for horse cdg & Jockey stats – trappy race – like u say Generous Ransom could win it back to last winning mark but all best form less than 3m. Buck Mulligan best overall cdg figs but getting on better off in a veteran race? Could place tho.
Interesting one to watch with a view to future, trainer had a runner placed last year, Orby’s Man, nice, lightly raced profile off for 9 months before last time 6th but besides a bumper 4th, was pulled up the only other time the going had soft in it, could be warming up for the summer months?
Orby’s Man – would be disappointed if he were good enough for this – now 0/9, 4 p in C4, let alone C3 – and this is a decent enough C3 – dont think he wants any soft in title but agree that he is one for a summer campaign and will win some good ground, low quality races, in the coming months no doubt.
Possible EW shot, Jock/Trainer combo won race last year, 3.25 Lud, Wishing Wind, very likely to improve for step up in trip?
& er’ if Hobbs’ consistently disappointing favourite happens to win for the application of Blinkers, I bet it’s not the last time b4 season out.
I like the look of holywell for the national, which could be bad news for bookies in holywell, in north wales.
thousands living there will be backing it! I posted yesterday about following progeny of midnight legend. horseracebet.com have system builder that gives runners
from sires. not taking new members till may apparently.
ps to holywell, aparently record in handicaps or those over3miles+ are won 6 and 2nd
just all about his mind and how he takes to fences I think – classy animal, if jumps first few and enjoys it, should be prominent and will give backers a good run – then just whether he stays. Couldnt put anyone off at prices, albeit not looked at profile etc yet. Yea HorseRaceBase are migrating servers so not accepting new members until all updates complete – worth joining when you can.
Nice my little double won
Millicent Silver and
Noche De Reyes
Double Silver had nice run