No luck on Sunday as our runner got going a bit too late and lost out on 3rd by around 1 length, not that he was ever in any real contention of winning, which was frustrating. I won’t be dwelling on that any longer. Moving on. A new week beckons and it promises to be an exciting ride… (Can Many Clouds take another step to becoming my generation’s Red Rum? I do hope so)
Financial Climate – 1 point win – NR
I will keep this fairly short. All of this horses handicap chase wins have come in races with 1-7 runners – 4/8 – he is 0/14, 4 places with more. He also has a good record when returning in the 16-30 day period, gets on well with this jockey, and all race conditions look fine. There is some rain around and it could be soft come race time, which is fine. Any worse than that and it is a bit unknown, albeit bits and pieces on heavy. He has the ability to take this. He finished behind Dawson City the last day and the question is why would he turn around the form – well he has been dropped 4lb which will help, and he also has a change of headgear, with the visor coming on first time. At his best he has a higher level of form than these as well – a decent runs in C2s and G3s for example. Dawson City does have the odd blunder in his locker also and always gives the impression he wants further – never quite getting there. I am never totally happy backing a horse with a string of 2s and 3s next to their name. Hopefully Financial Climate relishes this smaller filed (even though it is only by 1 from the last day) and the less competitive nature of this race. I thought 9/2 was generous enough. Sherwood is in decent enough form also.
I can’t really have the rest. Beeves could win but is becoming frustrating and unlike a few in these colours who left McCain doesn’t look to have improved for the switch. He has the ability to take this but I don’t think he should be shorter than the selection. The others have major form questions and major stamina questions to overcome and I am happy to take them on.
4.10 Wincanton –
Strollawaynow – 1 point win – 15/2 – UP 11/2
For me this one stands out at the prices and I am taking the chance that he has hated wearing the hood the last twice. He never really looked happy in either of those two recent runs – and he probably would have needed his first run of the season. He has two bits of form in the last year or so that would see him go very close in this. A repeat of that Taunton win, his only one over fences to date, could well be good enough. And that 8l 3rd behind Financial Climate at Chepstow in Feb 2015 would be good enough – he was rated 119 in that race, and comes here off 108 – which is also 6lb below his only chase win. I think there is just enough juice in the ground with some rain about, which will help. Now, if the hood wasn’t the reason for his two recent runs, then this is 1 point loaned back to the bookies (that I will get back in future, with plenty of interest) The trainer has only had 3 runners at the track in the last 2 years, 1 has won. He has had 3 runners in the last 30 days, 2 have placed. This is about whether he can repeat those exploits at Taunton or Chepstow. If he does, he is no 15/2 shot in this race.
It is pretty weak and at the odds I wouldn’t want to be lumping on anything else. Saint Raph has stamina questions, his one run over this trip and breeding suggesting it is a question. He is short enough in that context for me. Olivers Hill is unexposed and will like the ground, if able to build on his last run. I am not sure why he has been off for quite so long, maybe waiting for the ground. If he was north of 6/1 he would have been more tempting, he could go well. The rest have enough questions over class,fitness,trip,ground,recent form etc.
PACE – is interesting – there are a few who can go forward – I dont think there will be one who can really get away, and as such they may stay tightly grouped. On paper the pace set up is neither a positive or negative for the selection. I can’t see there being an excuse on that front.
April Trainer: NEW POST: APRIL TRAINER
3.10 Winc – Native Robin (16/1<) WON 5/1>9/2
4.00 War – Decimus (16/1<) DNQ
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
2.40 Winc – Batavir – 4/1 -3rd – I will mention this one as I/we backed him (micro system) on his first run at Cheltenham when Pipe’s were misfiring – he traveled really well into it that day before ‘blowing up’ a couple from home. He has continued to run well enough but now comes here with the yard in superb form, and arguably this is one of the more weaker races he has contested. He will appreciate the better ground and this may be the perfect trip, esp with some pace on in the race. Trainer Jockey have been in great form the last few days and this one may well continue that. He is a previous C2 winner, and he sould be going very close here given everything in his favour.
5.10 Winc – G For Ginger – 12/1 – 2nd -seems big for a trainer jockey combo who are 3/9,6 places when teaming up here, for a trainer in such good form again and for one who is adept at readying one first time out in bumpers. What’s more the trainer knows the family well and this one is related to a few bumper winners also. The market is always a good guide with his runners and if there is no money/a drift, then she wont be winning I doubt – but I suspect she is this price due to the other stables represented, rather than her actual chance. On paper a decent EW bet to my eyes. She should be ready to run her race here and as fit as the trainer can get her at home.
That is all for today. Good Luck.