Members Report: 03/04/16 (COMPLETE)

Thankfully Oisin Murphy was determined to get the best possible placing on Man of Harlech, who managed to grab 5th on the line and ensure no damage was done across all the tips for the day: 0 points. 

I still can’t fully work out if, due to the rain, there was/is a track bias there. Apparently it was riding pretty heavy and clearly a lot of horses didn’t handle it. Certainly those drawn high did best on the races over the straight courses and many came from behind -suggesting better ground on the near side/stand side rail I think. If that is the case you could mark up Lord of The Rock who won the first, drawn 4. In the 2.45 Bravo Solo ran a belter given all the rest around him were drawn high – it would suggest he had to work harder than them to get that position – he could be smart. Likewise Man of Harlech was drawn low and was scrubbed along for some way on the far side and it wasn’t until he made his was down the middle that he started to pick up – he may want  a bit further than this now. 

In recent years this race has worked out well so the runners could be worth following. 

Seebright ran much better than he has done and looked tenderly handled enough to be. The two horses in front of him are decent enough at their best. I do wonder if Victor is targeting something at Perth with him. Given how he ran here I may well have to back him again! Good to see him take a more positive step forward.

Two other things caught my eye during racing today. 

  1. Harry Cobden is some talent and is going to be a serious jockey if he continues to progress like this. His ride on Ultragold was just superb – that horse doesn’t jump and after making a few errors he took his time, pushed, cajoled, brought him through horses and won comfortably in the end. He is well worth his claim and it will be interesting to see just how high he could go.  A number of different trainers use his services which is an indication as to his standing I think. 
  2. Injam – well he has probably gone into a lot of trackers after the 5.05 maiden at Donny – he flew home late and now qualifies for handicaps. Clearly handles soft/heavy ground and it will be interesting whether this visual impressions pays of on his next few starts. 

***

Onto Sunday…

TIPS 

4.20 Ascot 

Loch Ba – 1 point EW – 25/1 (Bet365/PP/SJ/WH) * UP 

*prices as of 09.50

It is hard to be overly confident on anything in this for me but Loch Ba just stands out at the prices – 25/1 is too big IF he can run up to his best. That is the if, and it is a big one – but then plenty in here have questions. I found my self struggling to get away from the fact that Mick Channon has had 14 runners in the last 2 weeks, 6 have won, a further 4 have placed. I am hoping some of that good form may rub of on this horse. It could well be that he has gone at the game, and if there is no market support then it is likely 2 points lost. If he can grab a place at worse though, then it is like a 5/1 winner. 

He is 3/18, 7 places in handicap chases and has places in a couple of C2s, and demolished a couple of class 3s. In handicap chases he is 2/5,4 places over 3m, (and stays further) 2/8,4 places OR 121-130 and importantly 2/5, 3 places after breaks of 121+ days. A repeat of that Wincanton run in late 2014 would be enough to see him in the mix here I think. It is a bit of a poke, but then if he was in form and an obvious pick he wouldn’t be 25/1. I struggled to be over confident on any of those more fancied runners…

PACE is also interesting in here – there is a lot of it and it could well collapse jumping the last couple and set up for a closer, which would suit and inform Loch Ba. Pete The Feat, Creeveytennant really like to get on with it and if one of those gets an easy lead (providing they both want to lead again) I can only assume they will be going too fast.There are about 5 others in here that may well be pushing them also, and wont be far away. I would have been more tempted to have a go at Creevey if he was the only front runner in the race – he won this race last year (that was a weaker renewal to my eye) and could go well again. 

Shotavodka is interesting after he routed his field, including a couple in here, LTO. I am not sure how good that form was and the way he won may say more about the oppo – but it was impressive. Maybe 5s is worth the saver as his 12lb higher mark would not have stopped him that day. I think Openning Batsmen was flattered LTO and his only recent victories have been weak enough C3s – but he clearly does have the ability to take this and the race may set up for him.

I suppose you could make a tentative case  for a lot of these but I am happy to stick to this one. At his best 25s is too big- clearly it is the right price if he repeats his more recent runs. We shall see. We have 3 ‘big price’ (20/1+) winners in the bag this season (Highland Lodge 33/1,Russe Blanc 20/1 and Empire of Dirt 20/1), hopefully we can make it 4!

 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS

Pam Sly (any odds) 

5.15 Donny – All My Love-  3rd 25/1` 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

Richard Fahey has 4 potential qualifiers from the micro system in my ‘trainer track profile’. They ‘qualify’ if 16/1 or under…

  • 1.50: Fullon Clarets UP  / Jan Van Hoof 2nd
  • 3.30: Ballymorecastle UP
  • 5.15: Arcano Gold UP

***

 That is all for today. Good Luck with your bets. 

 

 

About This Author

<p>Hi, I’m Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch… and if you could use the ‘share buttons’ above that would also be appreciated :)</p>

30 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Think you should add in Kenneth Slack/Henry Broke trainer Jockey partnership at the northern tracks they have struck up a remarkable relationship this season another today at kelso.Slack did a Willie Mullins at sedgefield on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival,Hurdles and jumps they have very high strike rate.May not be a lot left in it this jumps season but one to have onside next.

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


    • Having backed Jokers and Rogues, I was screaming at Henry Brooke that he had gone off far too fast and had mentally torn up my ticket when the others came at him between the last two hurdles but he had kept enough up his sleeve to pull away again at the finish. Just shows what us armchair jockeys know! I am only guessing, but I assume Ken Slack is the son of Evelyn Slack (Mrs E Slack on racecards) and if you check her record over the last 3 years, it is abysmal. It could be that she has been getting her horses ‘ready’ to pass on to Ken when they are well treated, to give him a bit of a head start in his training career. Richard Lee did a similar thing at a higher level with his daughter. At some point the handicapper will catch up to them so he needs to attract some good owners/horses while the winning streak continues.

      Steve Veasey 2 years ago Reply


      • Yes, son and mother.

        Chris 2 years ago Reply


  • I think that both that horses Udododontu
    Mutarakez we will see at Grand National and will be diffrent story with them

    Pab 2 years ago Reply


  • My report from the track (Donny) this evening is that the ground is ‘terrible’ so expect a lot of withdrawals in the morning (and hold back with those bets?)

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


  • Thanks for the info steve/Chris,although the getting horses well handicapped for her son rather falls down if you look and where todays winner resided previously,john wade,maybe he just has taken on the job in a more professional way

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


    • Gerry, thanks for that information. Ken Slack has done remarkably well in the last 15 months or so but I have no idea if he worked for his mother or at another yard before taking out a license. 21 winners from his first 77 runners and another 21 placed suggests either he got a few horses that just needed a change of scenery or that were very well handicapped (all his winners have been in handicap hurdles).

      Steve Veasey 2 years ago Reply


  • From juliafeildenracingdotblogspot
    Sunday sees the return of out highest rated horse, Sabre Rock, at Doncaster. He has had well over a year off through injury but has come back stronger than before and I can’t wait to get him back, providing the ground isn’t too soft. He isn’t fully wound up as it was more important to keep him sound than fully fit first time but I hope he can show us he still has that spark which saw him win all his five races for us last winter.
    Runing 5.15 Donc

    Pab 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Comments regards R. Fahey horses. Jan Van Hoof needs to step up on what he did last year to win this off 85 but is fit and well and ready to run. Fullon Clarets was disappointing last season, not adding to a win at Lingfield in April. He seems to be training very well right now and we’re happy with him and we claim 7lb off him via Adam McNamara. Ballymore Castle has been a badly handicapped horse since his two-year-old days and might still need some help from the assessor. Our final runner is Arcano Gold in the Betfred Lotto Handicap – and he’s another who didn’t achieve what I thought he could last year.

    I hope he bounces back as a four-year-old as he has plenty of ability and won’t mind the ground or the trip here. Taken from Sporting Life.

    Roy Bedford 2 years ago Reply


    • thanks Roy, appreciated.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • 1.50 Doncaster. Two against the field. Moonlightnavigator down in class, 1lb below his Class 2 win last April. This is Class 4. That was an 8f handicap but on this going will be staying on when most of the others have had enough. Acts on going. .
    Johnny Cavagin won this last year. Runs off same mark. Early season horse who likes going.

    John Gorton 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi John, good luck – agree about Johnny Cavagin and may have a small nibble – looks sure to run a decent race of past history is anything to go by. If turns into a right old slog can see Moonlight’s stamina coming into play.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • You might be interested in Ben Aitken’s Lincoln post – I’ll go back & compare what actually happened to his draw/pace analysis.

    Last 8 runnings of the 6f 3.30 today only once has anyone drawn higher than 6 won it?

    You can tell it’s soft when Michael Dods has winners – he’s almost the flat equivalent of Venetia Willams.

    Can’t decide whether to just Lay the favourite in the first at Ascot, harder race than the one he threw last time & joint top rpr R Rowe’s, achieved as much in a much better race & looks EW material imho

    Andy Silvers 2 years ago Reply


  • Re Man of Harlech
    Josh your right in thinking that he needs further, stable & owners regard him as a 10 furlong horse. Think the idea was soft ground, fast pace then his stamina would come into place. Unfortunately inside of track was like a gluepot

    Bill 2 years ago Reply


    • yep agree – and a good ride to switch him to middle when he could, ensured the place – agree, seemed to be going backwards on that side of track, on the whole – I was thinking the same – fast pace and stamina – if he had been drawn high he would have been much closer – but only able to tell that after! the pace was middle to low, but didnt make much difference due to ground. He has a decent handicap in him you would think.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • got to have a go at that price,paddy power go 33s since 9.55 am!!!

    rob 2 years ago Reply


    • Loch Ba is an intriguing shout Josh, has plenty of form in his cv, as you say Channon is HOT at the moment and has been better since he moved back in to a senior role and re-demoted his son, and of course the presence of Henrietta Knight is still in evidence down there on the gallops and NH horses preparation…fingers crossed

      Ian 2 years ago Reply


  • The stable & owners certainly think he has. Bet on for today now going to see those superlambananas 😉

    Bill 2 years ago Reply


  • im on at 33’s! looking forward to it!

    another two i have something on are also from in-form stables: Grandad’s Horse (charlie longsdon) has the form to win it if we excuse his last run at the festival and a course win

    Forgotten Gold (can’t ignore Goerge-Brennan right now, but has annoyingly already taken a hit in price), has a tendency to run well fresh and seems to have a good attitude in a scrap which the winner may well need today if the front-runners will make it into a tear-up

    Ali 2 years ago Reply


    • good luck – yep FG has been ‘smashed’ in – you can make some sort of case for him but that race he won was weak, and hasnt worked out at all. Brennan is 0/9,1 p on the horse – but, he does go fresh and has ability – not a shock winner by any means – he does seem to have a couple of ways of running mind – if he puts his best foot forward then he would have a chance.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


      • yep, fair points. was worth a saver to me. although not winning form, the second to Mon Parrain at Cheltenham was the form that caught my eye. Old news now, but shows his ability at least

        Ali 2 years ago Reply


        • Well done Ali. yep agree about that back form – I missed price in any case, albeit cant say I would have picked him at 12s either – clearly a team at top of their game – good win from him. damn.

          Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


          • The right FG turned up today!

            His run at wincanton in retrospect suggested he would’ve won at some point over a furlong or two shorter, i can easily notice in retrospect! Stable fitness a key factor of course

            I missed out on about 4pts by jumping on the bandwagon late

            ali 2 years ago Reply


  • Impusive American Pipe 14.35 Ascot

    Pab 2 years ago Reply


    • 15/1

      Pab 2 years ago Reply


  • At least you read the race right, mate…couldn’t quite reel ’em in (maybe if he’d had the extra 40 yards to make it a true 3 miles lol)
    Paul

    Paul 2 years ago Reply


    • Yep, small consolation – annoying when early on it looks like at best you are then only playing for a place – there is held up, and then there is held up – horse stays further, would have been nice for his starting position to have been 20 yards further forward- his odd scrappy jumping means hard to make up that much ground at pace – so annoying when run out of place by around 1 length but that’s the way it goes. Worthy winner, who was twice price last night I believe. taking on George /Brennan at moment clearly unwise! Moving on.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Was considering Forgotten Gold but left alone because of ascot stats,seems everything they send out now is firing,maybe saint are for national

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


  • Ballinvarrig 3.10 wincanton for duo,30% strike rate in chases

    gerry 2 years ago Reply


Post A Reply