Thankfully Oisin Murphy was determined to get the best possible placing on Man of Harlech, who managed to grab 5th on the line and ensure no damage was done across all the tips for the day: 0 points.
I still can’t fully work out if, due to the rain, there was/is a track bias there. Apparently it was riding pretty heavy and clearly a lot of horses didn’t handle it. Certainly those drawn high did best on the races over the straight courses and many came from behind -suggesting better ground on the near side/stand side rail I think. If that is the case you could mark up Lord of The Rock who won the first, drawn 4. In the 2.45 Bravo Solo ran a belter given all the rest around him were drawn high – it would suggest he had to work harder than them to get that position – he could be smart. Likewise Man of Harlech was drawn low and was scrubbed along for some way on the far side and it wasn’t until he made his was down the middle that he started to pick up – he may want a bit further than this now.
In recent years this race has worked out well so the runners could be worth following.
Seebright ran much better than he has done and looked tenderly handled enough to be. The two horses in front of him are decent enough at their best. I do wonder if Victor is targeting something at Perth with him. Given how he ran here I may well have to back him again! Good to see him take a more positive step forward.
Two other things caught my eye during racing today.
- Harry Cobden is some talent and is going to be a serious jockey if he continues to progress like this. His ride on Ultragold was just superb – that horse doesn’t jump and after making a few errors he took his time, pushed, cajoled, brought him through horses and won comfortably in the end. He is well worth his claim and it will be interesting to see just how high he could go. A number of different trainers use his services which is an indication as to his standing I think.
- Injam – well he has probably gone into a lot of trackers after the 5.05 maiden at Donny – he flew home late and now qualifies for handicaps. Clearly handles soft/heavy ground and it will be interesting whether this visual impressions pays of on his next few starts.
Loch Ba – 1 point EW – 25/1 (Bet365/PP/SJ/WH) * UP
*prices as of 09.50
It is hard to be overly confident on anything in this for me but Loch Ba just stands out at the prices – 25/1 is too big IF he can run up to his best. That is the if, and it is a big one – but then plenty in here have questions. I found my self struggling to get away from the fact that Mick Channon has had 14 runners in the last 2 weeks, 6 have won, a further 4 have placed. I am hoping some of that good form may rub of on this horse. It could well be that he has gone at the game, and if there is no market support then it is likely 2 points lost. If he can grab a place at worse though, then it is like a 5/1 winner.
He is 3/18, 7 places in handicap chases and has places in a couple of C2s, and demolished a couple of class 3s. In handicap chases he is 2/5,4 places over 3m, (and stays further) 2/8,4 places OR 121-130 and importantly 2/5, 3 places after breaks of 121+ days. A repeat of that Wincanton run in late 2014 would be enough to see him in the mix here I think. It is a bit of a poke, but then if he was in form and an obvious pick he wouldn’t be 25/1. I struggled to be over confident on any of those more fancied runners…
PACE is also interesting in here – there is a lot of it and it could well collapse jumping the last couple and set up for a closer, which would suit and inform Loch Ba. Pete The Feat, Creeveytennant really like to get on with it and if one of those gets an easy lead (providing they both want to lead again) I can only assume they will be going too fast.There are about 5 others in here that may well be pushing them also, and wont be far away. I would have been more tempted to have a go at Creevey if he was the only front runner in the race – he won this race last year (that was a weaker renewal to my eye) and could go well again.
Shotavodka is interesting after he routed his field, including a couple in here, LTO. I am not sure how good that form was and the way he won may say more about the oppo – but it was impressive. Maybe 5s is worth the saver as his 12lb higher mark would not have stopped him that day. I think Openning Batsmen was flattered LTO and his only recent victories have been weak enough C3s – but he clearly does have the ability to take this and the race may set up for him.
I suppose you could make a tentative case for a lot of these but I am happy to stick to this one. At his best 25s is too big- clearly it is the right price if he repeats his more recent runs. We shall see. We have 3 ‘big price’ (20/1+) winners in the bag this season (Highland Lodge 33/1,Russe Blanc 20/1 and Empire of Dirt 20/1), hopefully we can make it 4!
Pam Sly (any odds)
5.15 Donny – All My Love- 3rd 25/1`
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Richard Fahey has 4 potential qualifiers from the micro system in my ‘trainer track profile’. They ‘qualify’ if 16/1 or under…
- 1.50: Fullon Clarets UP / Jan Van Hoof 2nd
- 3.30: Ballymorecastle UP
- 5.15: Arcano Gold UP
That is all for today. Good Luck with your bets.