Bob Tucker was no fool and got April off to the perfect start for any ‘Tip Followers’. We beat the market and he just scrambled home by a nose. A winner is a winner as they say, and I will lose plenty on the bob – so worth enjoying it!
Onto today…
BIG RACE PREVIEW
2.45 Doncaster – Lincoln
Mutarakez – 1.5 points win – 10/1 UP
Man of Harlech- 1 point EW – 16/1 5th
You’re Fired – 1/2 point win 16/1 UP
(4 points total- which will be a standard staking amount for these flat handicaps when 4/5 places up for grabs)
My stats shortlist leaves this one, Your’re Fired / Stipulate / Express Himself / Man of Harlech and Storm Rock.
Mutarakez – I get the feeling that if he is here to win and is tuned up for the moment, he could demolish these. He was still green to my eye,(unless that is how he races) having just watched back a few of his runs, and yet he still beat up decent enough fields. The turn of foot he showed at Sandown to pull away from decent yardsticks was eye-catching. If he has matured then he could light up this race. You can forgive any young horse a poor run at Royal Ascot – he went ok there, maybe too keen early on.
He ticks all the profile boxes for this race, has course form and really could be anything. He could end up being very smart this year and this could be the stepping stone to better things. Those races he has won have produced plenty of winners/placed horses. The trainer has a fine record at the track in the last couple of years. He is just exciting. He is also drawn close to what little pace there looks on paper and I can’t think that will be an excuse. I would hope he is match fit for this – he may not be, he could be keen, get wound up etc, but happy to take the chance at 10s. The ground should be fine – plenty of sire’s siblings get soft/heavy and he has winning form on good to soft.
Man of Harlech – ticks all the boxes on the initial stats profile. Running in a non handicap LTO is a negative, but one horse has won doing that. Horses running at Lingfield LTO have a good record and that run, to me, looks like a prep for this. It was his first run in 60 days and he wasn’t fancied, held up and never really put into the race. Those returning 8-16 days from last run have a good record in this. Then there is his form. Well he is still unexposed but has decent form in a hot Doncaster C2 and then a fairly close 4th in the Cambridgeshire. That is a tough handicap and he looks like the kind of tough horse needed for a task like this – his big field handicap form would suggest that. He also likes give underfoot. He is also drawn low which is a positive in this and should be able to track the pace on his side. He looks an exciting runner at the odds and it would be a shame were he not able to hit the places here. There should be more to come from him at some point.
You’re Fired – I am not totally convinced by this one but he ticks the profile boxes and has decent enough big field handicap form. At 16/1 he was worth half a point. His draw isnt ideal given where I think the pace is, and historically in this race. He was in form when last seen and if carrying that forward would make his presence felt.
Of the rest…well Express Himself and Storm Rock are most interesting from what’s left on the shortlist. I am not taken by them but clearly they have the right profile for this. Express Himself – well I think he was found out in hotter races and I don’t think it is coincidence his wins came at C3 level. He was a mile behind MoH at Newmarket when they met. His win at Haydock LTO hasn’t exactly produced loads of winners either – 40 have ran since, 0 have won, only 7 have placed. At 10s, happy to leave. Similar can be said about Storm Rock – he may need it soft, but was stuffed by Mutarakez when they met at Haydock. The subsequent form of his last 3 runs – well 52 horses have run since, 0 have won, 11 have placed. Again, questions over how good he really is, or could be. But, neither is without some sort of chance. Stipulate has plenty to prove in a handicap of this nature and the trainer has a poor record here with his handicappers. He doesn’t appear to be fancied.
PACE – how races are run in these races is crucial, more so than the draw most of the time. Pace looks middle to low here, which is good for us. Beach Bar should try and lead from stall 9, Ocean Tempest and Sirius Prospect may also try and push the pace. Of those low Heaven’s Guest and Lat Hawil should be up there – and tow MoH into it with any luck. On recent form there are a lot of hold up horses in here – no doubt some who dont usually lead, when they are running to win, may well lead for some time to get a blow into them, for future targets. We shall see, but given the horses we are on, I don’t envisage an excuse in terms of how the race pans out. It isn’t an exact science mind.
Right, that will do. I may not have even mentioned the winner but if that’s the case the winner will be our favourite kind – a stats/trends profile buster.
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TIPS
2.35 Newbury.
Seebright – 1 point win – 11/1 (BV) 10/1 (general) 3rd
May be best waiting for market to form properly. Any drift a big negative I think, hopefully he is backed! He will become my cliff horse for latter half of season 🙂 Write up will be sent out tomorrow by Daily Punt – I may have a muggy saver on TDC – couldn’t resist 11s on this one, in context of this race.
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That will be all for tips.
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MICRO SYSTEMS
+10.5 points on Friday was much needed, hopefully we can build on it…
Jumps Handicappers
4.35 Kelso – Boruma (12/1<) UP
Other – Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combos
3.o5 Newb – Art of Logistics (14/1<) UP
4.20 Uttox – Lava Lamp (any) UP
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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Some horses of interest from my stats profile. I have not even looked at the horses here but hopefully these pointers may help…
3.20 – Jack Dexter – Goldie has done well here with his listed runners, and mainly with this horse I think. 3/6,4 places with such runners here in last 3 seasons.
3.55 – Belardo – Roger Varian is 5/13,9 places with listed runners here in last 3 seasons.
5.05 – Mahfooz – Charlie Hills is 5/27,12 places with maiden runners here in last 3 seasons. His runners are actually performing a bit below market expectations.
There are some notes below in the comments on Uttoxeter…
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That is all for today.
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BONUS
BONUS
Martin, (a blog reader and avid HorseRaceBase user) who kindly provided us with some stats pointers for the Spring Mile , has provided a brief write up below. These are NOT official tips (regardless of how well they do 🙂 ) …I haven’t looked at the race but may have a small dabble on this one…
A few thoughts to go with the Spring Mile Trends
Applying the trends leaves a short list of just 2 – and even these two fall down on a couple of trends – with a further four possibles.
Short list of two: Emerald and Master of Irony
Possible further four (all fall down on three trends plus the trainer trend): Predominance, Lord of The Rock and Carnival King.
Carnival King (Currently 25/1 with many bookmakers). Four year olds have dominated this race with 14 winners from the last 19 coming from this vintage. Even in recent years this trend has remained strong with 7 out of the last 10 winners of this age. This trend alone cuts the field down to 10.
Carnival King seems to have a decent profile for this race, being a 4 year old, lightly raced and on a steady up ward curve. Also the partnership of Meehan/Fortune really catches the eye for a race of this type.
First the horse. Has some decent form in the book for one so lightly raced, only 5 races to date. On his debut maiden at Windsor finished a very decent 3rd of 16 with plenty of winners coming from this race subsequently (18 from 102 runners). Carnival King then went on two runs later to break his maiden tag in decent 7f race at Newmarket which has proved to be a ‘warm’ race producing another 6 winners from 46 runners to a small profit to SP. And finally LTO finishing 4th out of 18 in a competitive Goodwood handicap beating the likes of Georgian Bay (rated 98 on AW), Saucy Minx (rated 94 on AW) and Fiftyshadesofgrey (rated 94 on turf). With only 5 runs on the clock further improvement can be expected.
Moving on to the trainer/jockey partnership, what caught my eye is that J Fortune is taking the plate. His record in the Lincoln – over the same mile strip – is 3 winners, 10 rides and 6 places so he certainly knows how to ride this strip in big field handicaps which must be an asset.
Trainer, Brian Meehan is 3 winners from 6 runners here over the last 730 days (in flat handicaps) at the track and is quite adept at getting a horse ready from a long break (121 – 365 days break): 116 runners/12 winners/35 places/10.64 % SR/16.9 BF_PL. Worth noting that 4 of those winners have come in Class 2 handicaps.
There are others with more obvious claims and the ground is an unknown with this one, but that’s probably all factored into the price of 25/1. Coming out of stall 8 means that J Fortune will be able to dictate his charge’s direction coming out from the traps.
Of the others Predominance has obvious chances, unexposed, aged 4 and has a certain W J Haggas as his trainer…but 7/2 is short enough for me. Similar thoughts apply to Emerald and Master of Irony – although I do see Emerald available at 12/1 which is tempting.
My other pick is R A Fahey’s Right Touch and I was lucky enough to get 16/1 on this one before he was ‘Linfooted’ on the Sportlife website and a long line of blue consequently followed on oddschecker. Doesn’t hit that many of the key trends, but is bang in form and R A Fahey’s record in the race is one to take notice of and on that basis can be backed. I suppose the question is whether he will adapt well to the step up in trip?
44 Responses
On but glad to see Man of Harlech on the shortlist since that one stood out to me without having a proper look. Lets hope the ground stays soft.
agree – indeed, well good to soft should be fine also. Races prominently enough when he is there to win, and should get taken into race well. An exciting runner at the odds, and at least he wont need the run!
Small bet Your’e Fired in Lincoln for me.
Agree,although not as confident on him as the other two, but not without a chance.
My alternative Tipster says Man of Harlech; Birdman (who he says is huge value) and Your’e Fired…
Good stuff Ian, cant have Birdman personally, a bit too exposed, but his trainer is a magician and nothing is ever a total shock in races like this!
Just seen todays results and what a difference a nose makes! I was on Bob T and so will send you an additional donation later Josh.
I will take a look at the Lincoln later and share an opinion here but will have a few quid on your selections anyway.
Cheers Martin, appreciated. Yep, those noses always make a difference!
Well done today Josh. I’m off to Uttoxeter tomorrow with a few friends, any thoughts on the meeting would be much appreciated.
HI Edward…these are some very brief and ‘lightly’ researched thoughts…
Sue Smith/Danny Cook are 4/12,7 places here – they have one in 4.20, and one in 4.55
Fry/Fehiliy – 3/5,5 places here – have the fav in the 5.30
Kirby/Nichol are 5/19,9 places here – team up in 3.10 – but I am not convinced he stays (transient bay, may do though) Mountain Tunes for Jonjo is interesting in that after a quick glance
2.40 – Lean Burn looks interesting – the 14yo at the bottom ticks plenty of boxes, but he is 14 and been off an age, assume he will need the run.
In general, I would probably stick with those big in form trainers – none better than Pipe and Twiston Davies at the moment, and they have a few runners throughout the card.
Have fun, and take most of that with a pinch of salt! 🙂
Good morning Josh, thank you for your thoughts on the racing at Uttoxeter. After carefull consideration I’ve backed the following horses. 2.40 Lean Burn. 3.10 Mountain Tunes. 4.20 Lava lamp. 4.55. Sean Aergard (e way). I will also probably back 2.10. Marquis of Carabas. 3.10 Bangkok Pete. 4.55. Special Wells. A lot of bets for me, but what the heck, it’s a day out. Thanks again for your insight and rest assured should I have a successful day a donation will be heading your way.
I have tip for Keystroke 14:15 Doncaster
won 12 march C2 at Wolv
I like Azraaf in the 2.15 but could only get 8/1. I thought that some of its form looked classy. Maraakib fits the profile as well but only want to back one.
In the Lincoln, apart from your selections, I like Bravo Zolo and Ryan Moore is riding.
Can I plug the London Racing Club Aintree preview evening on Tuesday 5th at the Holiday Inn, Kensington from 7 PM. Only £8 for non members and a good open run through and discussion on the 3 days. Our regular guest is Leighton Aspell and he will be there (he likes a drink by the way, but no weight issues), and he has ridden and tipped the last two winners.
ive got a bit on maraakib too. he’s in my O’Meara season-starter system, couldnt leave out
Hi Josh
Re Man of Harlech Stable very hopeful of E/W claim esp if it’s a strong pace
Kerry Lee has a runner 3.05 Newbury,Simply Wings
I’m off on Sunday to Atlanta to take in The Masters Golf on Wednesday and Thurdsday ( it’s tough but someone has to do it !! )., which means that sadly I am away for The National- but may be able to watch on line.
However,what I would like is any advice anyone could offer on The Kentucky Derby whilst I am still there in early May. Any suggestions in the next month would be much appreciated.
Thanks in advance to one and all.
What about Udododontu at 14:45 Doncaster
looks like class horse and winter time was runing in Meydan
second Ascot
Yep cant discount him Pab – the ground is the real unknown but he has the right profile for this. You never know how horses will run after their travels but isnt much I could say if you like him – IF he handles soft, then he wont be far away. Good draw.
Man of Harlech-is cool at that prce
dutching with Udododontu
i am curious about Seebright forecast is showing 16/1
I ended up going for Man of Harlech and Express Yourself. As well as the trends they both ran in last years Cambridgeshire which is proving to be an extremely strong race.
Elsewhere I think Bangkok Pete has a cracking chance in the 15:10 at Uttoxeter. Whilst he is up 5lbs he actually drops down in grade in what looks like an easier race and the form has been franked with the 2nd and 3rd finishing 3rd and 1st in a Class 2 at Haydock last week. Finally I was happy to see Lava Lamp on the micros since according to my profile on the horse it has a number of his conditions and back down below his last winning mark
Thanks
Nice horse in not so much competitive race
Donc ANEEDH 16/1
poor race with big prices 5-40 DONCASTER
TEENAGE DREAM i take if odds 25/1
Hi Josh,
Good work and great tipping from you and well done to everybody on the blog giving us their tips, much appreciated. Was out all day yesterday and no bets for me got back too late. Onwards and upwards. In the monthly club from the 5th April. We have a lot of savvy punters on here. Thanks to everyone and to you for the info.
Pattaya Wolf.
Good one yesterday Josh. Bit worried about Ian Popham’s propensity for falling off, especially around those big Newbury fences. I see he is 0/11 jumps and 0/4 over hurdles.
Yep – Hughes had similar stats at Newbury yesterday – I look at jockey stats as a way to find a positive and increase confidence, rather than letting the stats put me off – all in context of price. His exploits on Annacoty around Cheltenham etc show he is a good rider and hopefully he wont be the reason the horse doesnt win, if indeed that is the case. Money has come which is a good sign, in part due to non runner, but it is a good sign at least.
Glad I got on Birdman at tea time yesterday, subsequently “pricewised” by Segal, although come to think of it….that’s a kiss of death as (a) he is bang out of form and (b) the lemmings follow him off the cliff…
Ah yes, that is a kiss of death haha – historically he is far too exposed for this, and claiming jocks with 5lb+ dont have the best record – but then again he is trained by a master whose horses can never truly be discounted. And you got a decent price. Good Luck (but not too much 🙂 )
D Pipe has sent one horse all the to KELSO.
Top Wood.
P Nicolls has 2 at KELSO apprentice on one and N Scoffield on the other.
Dermello Mo
Nice Scottish Double
NOTE OF CAUTION TO ANYONE PUNTING AT UTTOXETER…
I am about 10 miles away….it has been absolutely pouring down since at least 6am (woke me up) and shows little sign of relenting….therefore I would suggest you check heavy ground form!
What’s weather like at Donny – anyone know?
Cheers Ian – I think it is drizzle at Doncaster – soft ground I believe but not getting worse – should suit Man of H perfectly! M should handle it also.
rained here (Staffordshire) until 11am – now stopped, would imagine Uttoxeter will be heavy…
Good Luck all today!
I have had the word re Ultragold, 4.50 Newbury, 11/4 still available. Up to you, no worries.
Hi Martin. just want to say thanks for ultragold tip. had it in a double with ennaad.
No worries, when I get the word on a horse I will try to post it ASAP. They don’t always win obviously but they are usually semi serious gambles,
Hi Josh,
Well done yesterday, hope your not overdosing on those tablets lol.
I went through the Lincoln yesterday and picked out Man of Harlech, managed to get some 18,s e/way. Also like the look of Mutarakez, might have a saver on him now you have tipped him.
Greg
Doncaster 3.20
GLEN MOSS, a 7 furlong horse dropped back to 6F, drawn 11; OKish; new yard, one practice run, AW with Paul Mulrennan on board, today’s rider.
Horse has put up good speed figures in the past, beat Louis the Pious etc., shows winning form in 2nd run of the season.
Bookies, 33/1 EW, Betfair 75/1 EW.
‘
I can feel the eggs running down my face as I type this…can’t say any of the first 4 were really on my radar. Not a huge trends buster though….another 4 year old bags the prize money again….that’s 8 out of the last 11.
I have a pile of eggs on the fridge,always ready and waiting! That is the nature of the game in these race types. Wrong a lot more than right,but at the odds you don’t need to be right very often! Meehans didn’t handle ground in that first race I don’t think,well,he never looked happy.
second for me at Donc in first race
well the Lincoln defied all the trends, first and second home no real form in soft going over a mile and the third a complete nag, I recovered a nice bit of profit though with Birdman which I took at 20/1 from the speculate accumulate team and man of harlech taken at 16/1 from josh…..so thanks josh….nice one
Yep thankfully Oisin rode out his skin to get MoH up for 5th and save the day, 0 for tips on day. App that ground is heavy and def looks like favouring near side. Winner had right profile if you ignore days run (HRB doesn’t account for foreign form) but I couldn’t have had him I don’t think. Those drawn widest/highest were 0/19,3 places before today. Many didn’t handle that ground. Moderator horse ran a cracker given what could be a ground bias after rain.
plenty of pointers for tomorrow though Josh in terms of draw/ground, benefit of these 2-3 day meetings, every cloud has a silver lining..
yep, I will maybe have some ‘interest’ bets – that 6f handicap sprint looks interesting – but with no ‘way in’ I wont tip in it – a lot of guess work in terms of fitness etc – it will be interesting how the high drawn horses get on – in general today suggested a clear bias. We shall see how that develops tomorrow!