Bob Tucker was no fool and got April off to the perfect start for any ‘Tip Followers’. We beat the market and he just scrambled home by a nose. A winner is a winner as they say, and I will lose plenty on the bob – so worth enjoying it!
BIG RACE PREVIEW
2.45 Doncaster – Lincoln
Mutarakez – 1.5 points win – 10/1 UP
Man of Harlech- 1 point EW – 16/1 5th
You’re Fired – 1/2 point win 16/1 UP
(4 points total- which will be a standard staking amount for these flat handicaps when 4/5 places up for grabs)
My stats shortlist leaves this one, Your’re Fired / Stipulate / Express Himself / Man of Harlech and Storm Rock.
Mutarakez – I get the feeling that if he is here to win and is tuned up for the moment, he could demolish these. He was still green to my eye,(unless that is how he races) having just watched back a few of his runs, and yet he still beat up decent enough fields. The turn of foot he showed at Sandown to pull away from decent yardsticks was eye-catching. If he has matured then he could light up this race. You can forgive any young horse a poor run at Royal Ascot – he went ok there, maybe too keen early on.
He ticks all the profile boxes for this race, has course form and really could be anything. He could end up being very smart this year and this could be the stepping stone to better things. Those races he has won have produced plenty of winners/placed horses. The trainer has a fine record at the track in the last couple of years. He is just exciting. He is also drawn close to what little pace there looks on paper and I can’t think that will be an excuse. I would hope he is match fit for this – he may not be, he could be keen, get wound up etc, but happy to take the chance at 10s. The ground should be fine – plenty of sire’s siblings get soft/heavy and he has winning form on good to soft.
Man of Harlech – ticks all the boxes on the initial stats profile. Running in a non handicap LTO is a negative, but one horse has won doing that. Horses running at Lingfield LTO have a good record and that run, to me, looks like a prep for this. It was his first run in 60 days and he wasn’t fancied, held up and never really put into the race. Those returning 8-16 days from last run have a good record in this. Then there is his form. Well he is still unexposed but has decent form in a hot Doncaster C2 and then a fairly close 4th in the Cambridgeshire. That is a tough handicap and he looks like the kind of tough horse needed for a task like this – his big field handicap form would suggest that. He also likes give underfoot. He is also drawn low which is a positive in this and should be able to track the pace on his side. He looks an exciting runner at the odds and it would be a shame were he not able to hit the places here. There should be more to come from him at some point.
You’re Fired – I am not totally convinced by this one but he ticks the profile boxes and has decent enough big field handicap form. At 16/1 he was worth half a point. His draw isnt ideal given where I think the pace is, and historically in this race. He was in form when last seen and if carrying that forward would make his presence felt.
Of the rest…well Express Himself and Storm Rock are most interesting from what’s left on the shortlist. I am not taken by them but clearly they have the right profile for this. Express Himself – well I think he was found out in hotter races and I don’t think it is coincidence his wins came at C3 level. He was a mile behind MoH at Newmarket when they met. His win at Haydock LTO hasn’t exactly produced loads of winners either – 40 have ran since, 0 have won, only 7 have placed. At 10s, happy to leave. Similar can be said about Storm Rock – he may need it soft, but was stuffed by Mutarakez when they met at Haydock. The subsequent form of his last 3 runs – well 52 horses have run since, 0 have won, 11 have placed. Again, questions over how good he really is, or could be. But, neither is without some sort of chance. Stipulate has plenty to prove in a handicap of this nature and the trainer has a poor record here with his handicappers. He doesn’t appear to be fancied.
PACE – how races are run in these races is crucial, more so than the draw most of the time. Pace looks middle to low here, which is good for us. Beach Bar should try and lead from stall 9, Ocean Tempest and Sirius Prospect may also try and push the pace. Of those low Heaven’s Guest and Lat Hawil should be up there – and tow MoH into it with any luck. On recent form there are a lot of hold up horses in here – no doubt some who dont usually lead, when they are running to win, may well lead for some time to get a blow into them, for future targets. We shall see, but given the horses we are on, I don’t envisage an excuse in terms of how the race pans out. It isn’t an exact science mind.
Right, that will do. I may not have even mentioned the winner but if that’s the case the winner will be our favourite kind – a stats/trends profile buster.
Seebright – 1 point win – 11/1 (BV) 10/1 (general) 3rd
May be best waiting for market to form properly. Any drift a big negative I think, hopefully he is backed! He will become my cliff horse for latter half of season 🙂 Write up will be sent out tomorrow by Daily Punt – I may have a muggy saver on TDC – couldn’t resist 11s on this one, in context of this race.
That will be all for tips.
+10.5 points on Friday was much needed, hopefully we can build on it…
4.35 Kelso – Boruma (12/1<) UP
Other – Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combos
3.o5 Newb – Art of Logistics (14/1<) UP
4.20 Uttox – Lava Lamp (any) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Some horses of interest from my stats profile. I have not even looked at the horses here but hopefully these pointers may help…
3.20 – Jack Dexter – Goldie has done well here with his listed runners, and mainly with this horse I think. 3/6,4 places with such runners here in last 3 seasons.
3.55 – Belardo – Roger Varian is 5/13,9 places with listed runners here in last 3 seasons.
5.05 – Mahfooz – Charlie Hills is 5/27,12 places with maiden runners here in last 3 seasons. His runners are actually performing a bit below market expectations.
There are some notes below in the comments on Uttoxeter…
That is all for today.
Martin, (a blog reader and avid HorseRaceBase user) who kindly provided us with some stats pointers for the Spring Mile , has provided a brief write up below. These are NOT official tips (regardless of how well they do 🙂 ) …I haven’t looked at the race but may have a small dabble on this one…
A few thoughts to go with the Spring Mile Trends
Applying the trends leaves a short list of just 2 – and even these two fall down on a couple of trends – with a further four possibles.
Short list of two: Emerald and Master of Irony
Possible further four (all fall down on three trends plus the trainer trend): Predominance, Lord of The Rock and Carnival King.
Carnival King (Currently 25/1 with many bookmakers). Four year olds have dominated this race with 14 winners from the last 19 coming from this vintage. Even in recent years this trend has remained strong with 7 out of the last 10 winners of this age. This trend alone cuts the field down to 10.
Carnival King seems to have a decent profile for this race, being a 4 year old, lightly raced and on a steady up ward curve. Also the partnership of Meehan/Fortune really catches the eye for a race of this type.
First the horse. Has some decent form in the book for one so lightly raced, only 5 races to date. On his debut maiden at Windsor finished a very decent 3rd of 16 with plenty of winners coming from this race subsequently (18 from 102 runners). Carnival King then went on two runs later to break his maiden tag in decent 7f race at Newmarket which has proved to be a ‘warm’ race producing another 6 winners from 46 runners to a small profit to SP. And finally LTO finishing 4th out of 18 in a competitive Goodwood handicap beating the likes of Georgian Bay (rated 98 on AW), Saucy Minx (rated 94 on AW) and Fiftyshadesofgrey (rated 94 on turf). With only 5 runs on the clock further improvement can be expected.
Moving on to the trainer/jockey partnership, what caught my eye is that J Fortune is taking the plate. His record in the Lincoln – over the same mile strip – is 3 winners, 10 rides and 6 places so he certainly knows how to ride this strip in big field handicaps which must be an asset.
Trainer, Brian Meehan is 3 winners from 6 runners here over the last 730 days (in flat handicaps) at the track and is quite adept at getting a horse ready from a long break (121 – 365 days break): 116 runners/12 winners/35 places/10.64 % SR/16.9 BF_PL. Worth noting that 4 of those winners have come in Class 2 handicaps.
There are others with more obvious claims and the ground is an unknown with this one, but that’s probably all factored into the price of 25/1. Coming out of stall 8 means that J Fortune will be able to dictate his charge’s direction coming out from the traps.
Of the others Predominance has obvious chances, unexposed, aged 4 and has a certain W J Haggas as his trainer…but 7/2 is short enough for me. Similar thoughts apply to Emerald and Master of Irony – although I do see Emerald available at 12/1 which is tempting.
My other pick is R A Fahey’s Right Touch and I was lucky enough to get 16/1 on this one before he was ‘Linfooted’ on the Sportlife website and a long line of blue consequently followed on oddschecker. Doesn’t hit that many of the key trends, but is bang in form and R A Fahey’s record in the race is one to take notice of and on that basis can be backed. I suppose the question is whether he will adapt well to the step up in trip?