Members Report: 30/03/16 (COMPLETE)

Well I can now fully wipe the Irish National from my memory thanks to Gibbstown strolling to victory and getting back all of those losses.

That ‘profiling’ approach, especially for horses with clear class ceilings, can be a gold mine, if you get it right. I plan to find a few like that for the flat. I should put more work in for next jumps season and try and get a team of those types onside – plenty of them exist but you just have to dedicate hours to finding them – no easy way.

She has been in my HorseRaceBase account for 12 months so it was nice to get a reward! That takes us back above my own minimum monthly target of +10 points every month (on average) Just shy of +12 points for March. (2016s average is just over 42 points per month so far) 

And now for a ‘Parish Notice’… 🙂 

What’s coming up in the next few days I hear you ask…

  • Lincoln Trends: Will be posted up today. The first foray into the flat, how exciting. (these races are THE toughest puzzle of them all and I can’t wait to get stuck in) 
  • Aintree: I am yet to work out my approach. I think it will consist of: trends for Grand National,trends for every other race over those fences + the 3m handicap chase,and maybe a handicap hurdle. I will also look at some trainer stats/micro angles and any other generic ‘ways in’. It is a meeting I attend for all three days and is very much a social occasion for me, if you know what I mean!! 🙂 (this meeting has been a punting graveyard for me,so any help is appreciated! *** Some of these stats will be emailed out exclusively for monthly ‘Donations Club Members’ ,albeit I haven’t decided which bits yet. 
  • Trainer Track Profiles Flat: I am now up to 15 hours and counting of research for my new stats guide which is the best thing I have produced to date I think. I have just finished ‘Goodwood’ (found a belting micro system for Mark Johnston’s handicappers)  I have completed Doncaster’s Profile, so will send this out for free to all of you before the weekend, probably Thursday. Print it off, take it to the track, and be the most informed punter there 🙂 
  • March Review: No ‘weekly review’ as such this week but instead there will be a review of the month. 
  • April Trainers: Finally, for now, I am yet to research any such trainers for next month but will get looking/posting before Friday. I am sure there will be a couple we can follow. 

At some point I will eat and sleep. For now… 

Onto today…



NONE. Exeter have a 3m chase but it is a small field and is now Heavy – Exeter Heavy, as it should be known, is a very unique beast that I am yet to get to grips with – some handle it and some don’t – even those with ‘heavy form’ seem to drop out the county, let alone the TV. 



March Trainers

2.40 Ling – Honey Required (any odds) 

Jumps Handicappers

3.05 Exet – Lord Ballim (12/1<) 



8.25 Kempton – Burning Blaze – 13/2 – my forays onto the sand don’t usually go too well (you have been warned) but Ellison doesn’t mess around when booking SDS here – 3/8,6 places in last 5 years, one of those wins last time out on this same horse. That was the horse’s 5th start for the trainer and while this is a step up in grade I suspect he may get more from him at some point. His geegeez speed figure is better than that of the fav and actually the best in the race. The drop back in trip looks to be fine also and any followers won’t be found wanting from the saddle. An interesting runner, maybe a 1-2 job with the fav in some kind of order?! 


That is all for today. 



Donations…Join The Club…

If you enjoy the blog and may even profit from my advice, why not donate today? You can join the monthly ‘Donations Club’ below – members of which will receive added benefits in the weeks and months ahead – reports for free (that I would otherwise charge for), exclusive reports, plus much more is in the pipeline. Or, you can chip in as and when suits you, with ad hoc donations also.  

I appreciate any donations that are sent my way. They will allow the blog to remain free at the point of use, ensuring no barriers to access – and they allow me to focus on making it, and your experience,the best that it can be. (some big redesign plans are afoot) 

So, go on, what are you waiting for 🙂 …

You Can Join My Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below 






Here you go Josh, I would be happy to contribute a small amount right now… 🙂 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

29 Responses

  1. nice one with gibbstown, felt confident after reading article, good stats about not cutting in,in claas 4, but good record in claas 5. proved it today!
    interesting those class performance stats.

    thanks again

    1. Thanks Malcolm..yep there are a few like that, across both codes, who only ever win when dropping down to a certain class. Either struggle at class above and/or connections work on the mark etc and are good at picking weak races to win etc. It is exciting when you find them, and more exiting when they bolt up – which they dont all do of course.

  2. Hi Josh, I have really enjoyed reading your blog and appreciate all the hard work you put in. I’m only a small stakes punter, however donation on its way.

    Many thanks

    1. Cheers Steve. Yep,well this donations approach allows all readers to chip in amount that suits them etc, including nothing at all. Any donation is always appreciated and very welcome. Glad you enjoy the blog.

  3. Well done with Gibbstown Josh,got 5/1 which was good enough for me,and at Hexham I used to go to just about every meeting in my younger days,looking forward to your Lincoln trends,though I prefer N Hunt myself.Cheers BoB

    1. Cheers Bob. Yep I do on the whole but I do like these big field cavalry charges and they are a different challenge. Also means there can be some decent EW bets to be had. In truth though,we are just ticking down the days until November again! 🙂

  4. Well done with Gibbstown Josh. I liked the course form, especially as it won this race two years ago so I had an extra half a point on. Thank you.

    1. Good stuff Richard…yep, when it dawned on me how long I had been waiting for her to race at this level,and I kept thinking about the Irish National,I may have had a top up also!

  5. Great winner today Josh
    Jump off as you predicted but heading up the back straight 2nd time around I was at the counter looking to collect my winnings… Keep up the hard but rewarding work

    1. Thanks Johnny. Yep that race went as well as it could have. Yep became apparent quite a way out it was a case of if she jumped she was winning,to my eye at least. That kicked turning home was enjoyable. Ah yes,it’s always very rewarding.

  6. I have to thank you Josh for a nice winner and a good couple of days having backed Ballyadam e/w yesterday. Your efforts are truly appreciated. Barry

    1. No problem Barry,that’s what I’m here for. We are all on an exiting journey together, one that has been an enjoyable ride for a few months now.

  7. I think Pearl Spectre will try and make all in the 2.50 at Southwell. It has yet to run here, but being by Street Cry, is ideally bred to run well at the track. It looks like it will get the lead so will be out of the kick back which is a big advantage. Since 2008, all Street Cry progeny are 37/146 for +£30 and since 2012 for those priced between 6/4 and 8/1, are 17/57 and + £20. One point win for me.

    1. Good luck Richard, yep plenty of positives there, including the trainer’s record at the track, and that with this jockey. (which will be as a result of owners also I think) Looks sure to get a lead if they so want it. The 74 days rest is interesting…maybe they have operated somewhere? maybe. Quite a class drop also.

      1. Well done Richard, threw 1/2 point at him at 4/1. A nice bonus for my afternoon, so cheers! fairly comfortable.

        1. Thanks Josh, glad you had a bet on him (and am therefore relieved it won!).

          I have been looking at sires on the all weather tracks since October and it is a definite way in. Wolves/Tapeta is particularly worthy of study and I am looking forward to seeing how Newcastle goes when the new track opens in May, which is also on that surface.

          1. Well a bit like when you had the half point extra on mine yesterday, your sire stats and a closer look at trainer, pace etc (think Balding operates at 30% there), that break was interesting, as was the class drop. Decent bet at 4s (my aversion of AW meant I didnt go full point!) and beat SP comfortably. I wouln’t have had a bet on him were it not for your comment. I wouldn’t have been complaining if he had lost 🙂

            Yep, maybe that is THE ‘way in’ for me on the sand. Maybe I will research a handful of micros when time allows. I think that is a popular approach.

        2. I use HorseRaceBase as you do. Start off on Stallion Stat Attack Extra but that only gives one year records. I use track Strike Rate of the five columns (I treat each track on it’s own and you will get used to which courses/sires go together). I thought the all weather may work well as there are a lot of meetings/sample size and I am not sure if it will be as effective on Turf.

          One year is not long enough to give a decent sample size. I like to go back up to five years and for this I click on the TRACKS button which is on the second Orange column headed Research. You get a list of Jockeys, Trainers and Sires come up. The one downside here is that it does not allow the ‘with runners today’ to work for Sires so I have to click on each Sire manually to see which ones have runners that day. I have had some massive priced winners at up to 75 on Betfair so it is not just useful at the front of the market.

          All the best.

  8. Hi Josh just like to say really appreciate the work you put into blog. It is really good. Like someone else said I am a small stakes bettor and have made a couple of donations already and will do so again tomorrow when paid. I really would like to join the Donations Club but to be honest £12 every month is a bit too much for me. Following your pricing structure have you considered offering a further £7 per month option. I would definitely take that up. I know I can make voluntary donations but would prefer to be in the club bearing in mind any possible future changes. It was just a thought to perhaps get more people like me in the club. Anyway keep up the good work.

    1. Hi Mike, thanks for comment and glad you enjoy the blog.
      I appreciate your sentiments on the donations club levels etc. I am currently developing my thinking on this and am planning a redesign of the blog etc, part of which the ‘donations club’ or ‘racing to profit members club’ is part of that bigger thinking. Working out what will always be free at point of use, and what will be added benefits (at different levels, of which I haven’t ruled out £7 as an option).
      Firstly, in terms of the main stats packs -which current donations club members either get them for free (as with Cheltenham’s trends pack, instead of £17) or discounted (which I will do for the two big stats guides, for jumps and flat) – these are always available to purchase to anyone, so not a case of missing out in that sense.
      Working out what ‘club members’ get exclusively needs work, and there will be something around Aintree – at the moment donations club members have not received anything just exclusively for them, that isn’t available to everyone in some form.
      At same time, I am conscious say that if you follow all the official Tips say, to just £1 per point, you would be around £125 richer in 2016 – I suppose my hope is that some may start off small and over time may build up from £1 stakes to £5 – and £5 punters/tip followers are over £600 up in 2016 alone – in that context I think £3 per week, £12 per month is reasonable. Of course, there needs to be value in the blog etc without the performance of the tips also.
      There will always be a mix on here – those that donate nothing,those that donate as and when, and those willing to commit monthly – the latter option allows me to be confident in the future and ensure I put every effort I have into the blog. It’s why this mixed model works.
      So, there will be developments in the next couple of months, and I take every reader’s views on-board.Thanks again.

      1. Hello Josh, I also bet to small stakes – £2 a polnt- with the intention of hopefully building a decent bank. I’m more than happy with the results so far and after a small donation initially, I joined the monthly option willingly as soon as it was available.


        1. Hi Edward, much appreciated. I suspect you are like a lot of the readership in terms of staking size etc (as indeed that was my level a few years ago before gradually moving up to £20 level stakes). We are all on a similar journey to the profitably promised land 🙂 Josh

    1. Thanks Pat, appreciated. Ah, well 4/1 was still value in context of his price and how he won, glad you were on.

  9. kicking myself and I’m sure others are for getting off David Pipe a few weeks ago…..last 13 runners have seen 6 winners by my estimation and approx. 58 points profit to 1 point each way to sp…aaarrrggghhh

    just keep telling myself not to jump on a bandwagon when its rolled….problem is it keeps rolling!

    1. Yep, every winner he has a little piece of me dies haha. I know what you mean – he was meant to peak in February dammit – followed him in November when they were all sick I think, and in Feb when he couldn’t hit a barn door, and now into March. We will have to remember this for next year. I will dive in and have a look at some point. That’s the way it goes. It will be a distant memory come Oct/November when when cant stop backing Kerry Lee and Venetia Williams chase winners 🙂

      1. if you adopt the approach that you can always learn you will do very well young man, not that you haven’t made a fantastic start so far…

        1. cheers Ian, I have plenty to learn but thankfully I enjoy learning! You have to be self critical otherwise you get nowhere.

      2. When a trainer goes through a horrible patch you have to keep telling yourself ‘every time they run badly they are getting better handicapped’ when they all become well treated at the same time is when you get runs like Pipe’s at the moment. Its not like they forget how to train, so you just have to suck it up until the tide turns..

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