Saturday Big Race Trends

Our first taste of the Flat. 

Below are trends for the Lincoln and The Spring Mile. The stats for the latter have kindly been provided by one of you good readers, Martin. I don’t plan on tipping in the race – one big field cavalry charge is enough for my brain to handle most of the time – but there are some useful pointers there for you. 

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Doncaster: Lincoln

19 renewals since 1997

427 runners

76 placed horses

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CHECKLIST

TRENDS

Previous Place

• Nothing too significant
• TOP 2 LTO : 9/109,27 places…47% winners…26% runners…36% places

Horse Age

• 18/19 Aged 4-6
• 7+ : 1/69, 13 places…5% winners…16% runners…17% places

Days Since Run

• 15/19 ran 121-365 days ago
  • 15/239,46 places…79% winners…56% runners…61% places
• 4/19 ran 8-15 days ago
  • 4/48, 12 places
• 1-7 days: 0/23, 5 places
• 16-120 days: 0/90, 9 places

Horse Weight

• 18/19 carried 8-4 to 9-5
• 9-6+ : 1/40, 7 places
• 8-3 or less: 0/30, 1 place

Horse Official Rating

• Nothing too significant
  • OR 85 or below: 0/43, 5 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had RUN Over

• 16f or further: 0/41, 4 places

Maximum Distance Winners Had WON Over

• 16/19 Had won over at least 8f previously
  • Yet to win over 8f or further: 1/80, 11 places
  • (2 had no career win to name)

Position In Market

• 19/19 Top 15 in market
  • 16 or below: 0/124, 6 places

Odds

• 50/1+ : 0/60, 3 places

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OTHER STATS

Miscellaneous 1

Headgear

• CheekP: 0/14,0 places
• Blinkers: 0/26, 5 places
• Visor: 2/17,4 places

Weight (excl J-Claim)

• 9-6+ : 1/52, 8 places
• 8-5 or less: 0/47, 3 places

Stalls/Draw

Stalls

• 16/19 drawn 16 or lower.
• 17+ : 3/131, 17 places…16% winners…31% runners…22% places
• 1-9: 10/19…10/169 runners,38 places…53% winners…40% runners…50% places

Position in Stalls

• ‘Widest’ (highest no.): 0/19, 3 places

Draw Segment

• When looking at stalls in ‘quarters’, there is an even spread. Suggests no real track bias and pace, like most races of this type, is probably more important.

 

‘The ‘Running’ Characteristics’

H -Run (90 days)

• 18/19 had 0-1 run only in last 90 days.
  • 2+ : 1/67, 12 places

H – Run (career)

• 34+ : 0/62, 11 places

H- Run (Hncp/Non Hncp)

• 0 handicap runs: 0/33, 5 places
• 26+ : 0/65, 13 places

H-Run (distance)

• 12+ : 0/84, 10 places

H- Run (track)

• 5+ : 0/20, 2 places

H-Run (Last Win)

• 16/17 (of those with a win) had WON at least once in last 4 starts
  • Had Not: 1/188, 24 places
• 11/17 had won at least once on last two starts

 

The ‘Winning’ Characteristics

H-Win (Career).

• 7+ : 0/50, 10 places

H-Win (Hncp/Non)

• 6+ : 0/37, 7 places

Miscellaneous 2

Best in Three Runs

• 18/19 finished Top 4 at least once in last 3 runs
  • 13/19 had finished 1^st at least once in last 3 runs
• DID NOT: 1/78, 11 places

Best in Five Runs

• 16/19 had won at least once in last 5 starts
• 19/19 Top 4 at least once in last 5 runs
  • 0/29, 4 places had not

Class Move

• Dropping in class: 1/58, 9 places
• 18/19 running at same or up 1 class
• Up 2 or more: 0/20, 0 places

Highest Class Run

• Group 3 or higher: 2/112, 18 places

Highest Class Win

• 17/17 had won at C3 level or above
• Yet to win above C4: 0/55, 8 places

H-Places (Hncp/Non)

• 13+ (incs wins): 0/47, 9 places

Jockey Claims

• 3lbs: 1/39, 8 places
• 5lbs: 0/26, 1 place
• 7lbs: 0/14, 1 place

Horses ‘Last Race’ Characteristics

(LR) Hcap/Non

• 18/19 ran in a handicap LTO
  • Non handicap LTO: 1/108, 14 places

(LR) Race Class (inc Irish)

• C1: 1/61, 10 places
• C4 or below: 0/21, 0 places

 (LR) No. of Runners

• 6 or fewer: 0/29, 1 place

(LR) Race Code (All-Weather..)

• National Hunt: 0/10, 1place
• Flat: 13/244,43 places
• AW: 6/153, 28 places

(LR) Track

• Newmarket (Rowley): 6/75, 13 places
• Wolverhampton: 3/83, 14 places
• Ascot: 2/32, 5 places
• Lingfield: 2/49, 9 places
• York: 1/25,6 places
• Other 1 win: Ayr/Leic/Chester/Nott/Southwell
• Newmarket (july): 0/9, 0 places
• Kempton: 0/15, 3 places
• Newbury: 0/11, 4 places
• Doncaster: 0/29, 1 place

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Sires/Stallion? (of interest)

Nothing of note.

Jockeys (of interest)

• Jimmy Fortune: 3/10, 6 places
• Tony Hamilton: 2/7,5 places
• Jimmy Quinn: 1/8, 3 places
• Dane ONeill: 0/8, 0 places

Trainer Yard Location

• Yorkshire: 6/148,26 places
• South East England: 12/205,35 places (assuming that is Newmarket!)
• Central England: 1/59, 13 places
• Irish runners: 0/4, 1 place

Trainers (of interest)

• P F I Cole: 3/8, 3 places
• Haggas: 2/6,3 places
• JJ Quinn: 2/9, 3 places
• M H Tompkins: 2/9, 4 places
• R Fahey: 2/30, 10 places
• 1 win: J Ryan/Barry Hills/J Dunlop/Sir M S/ J Gosden/J Bethell/M Dods/Arbuthnot
• K Ryan: 0/11,0 places
• D O’Meara: 0/7, 3 places
• T D Barron: 0/9, 3 places
• D Nicholls: 0/24, 0 places
• T D Easterby: 0/7, 0 places
• M R Channon: 0/12, 1 place
• M Easterby: 0/9, 0 places

 

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THE WINNING PROFILE?

• Did NOT run 16-120 days ago.
• OR 86 or higher
• 8-6 or more (excluding jockey claims)
• 33 or fewer career runs
• 25 or fewer handicap runs
• 1 or more runs in handicaps
• Ran at C3 or above
• Ran in a race with 7 or more runners LTO
• Had won at C3 level or above

Other pointers

• Aged 4-6 is preferred
• Never run over 2m or further before
• A career win over 8f a big positive
• 12+ runs at Distance a negative
• A win in last 4 starts a big positive
• Running in a handicap LTO a big positive
• Not ridden by a 5lb-7lb claimer
• Top 4 on at least one of last 3 starts
• 6 or fewer career wins a positive.

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Martin’s Stats/Trends as below, which help frame an interesting ‘profile’…

 

10 Trends for the Doncaster Spring Mile

19 renewals – 410 runners, 19 winners, 76 places.

1) Age 4

169 runners, 14 winners, 33 places, 81.5 SP_PL (That’s SP_PL not BF_PL!)

41 % runners, 73% winners, 43% places

2) Break (121 – 365 days)

216 runners, 13 winners, 47 places, 11.5 SP_PL

52% runners, 68% winners, 62% places

3) Max Distance Run (1 mile)

59 runners, 8 winners, 20 places, 87 SP_PL

14% runners, 42% winners, 26% places

4) Class Move Up 1

100 runners, 9 winners, 22 places, 93 SP_PL

24% runners, 47% winners, 28% places

5) Distance Move (Same)

131 runners, 9 winners, 27 places, 52 SP_PL

31% runners, 47% winners, 35% places

6) Best In 3 runs (First or Second)

220 runners, 15 winners, 46 places, 14.5 SP_PL

53% runners, 83% winners, 60% places

7) LTO track

York 17 runners, 4 winners, 7 places, 23 SP_PL

Musselburgh 6 runners, 2 winners, 3 places, 28.00 SP_PL

Sandown 2 runners, 2 winners, 2 places, 32.00 SP_PL

Newmarket (Rowley) 49 runners, 2 winners, 12 places, 6 SP_PL (Must be skewed with a big priced winner?)

Other tracks with one win and +SP_PL.

Goodwood 6 bets, 1 win, 2 places/ Huntington 1 bet, 1 win, 1 place/ Leicester 3 bets, 1 win, 1 place/

Kempton 14 bets, 1 win, 3 places.

8) Trainer and Jockey

R Fahey 21 runners, 3 winners, 9 places, 6 SP_PL

(many trainers with just one winner) 

9) H – Runs (H’cap – Non H’cap) 0-10

165 runners, 13 winners, 36 places, 26.50 SP_PL

40% runners, 68% winners, 47% places

10) H – Wins (1 to 2)

141 runners, 9 winners, 26 places, 21 SP_PL

34% runners, 47% winners, 34% places.

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