Members Report: 29/03/16 (COMPLETE)

Ah, another puzzle goes unsolved – next year! From the four we backed at least we got one run for our money, from the 50/1 poke, who, out of all of them, I was least sure would stay! Alas he was a win only bet, but a brave and exciting run nonetheless. (clearly, with hindsight, I am kicking myself for not backing him EW) Wrath Of Titans threatened to get involved for a moment on the outside, a few from home, but that came to nothing. Kilford ran a strange race suggesting all was not well. Having been in a great position his jumping went to pieces a bit and he dropped out very quickly. Either a physical issue,burn out,or may he just didn’t like being surrounded by that many horses. Who knows. Is Killer Crow still running? Not sure if my eyes ever clocked onto him.

So, losing £100 (well £110 in the end) of my money on that one race wasn’t pleasant but that’s the way we roll in these parts. I test myself in the hardest races there are because I like to solve the toughest of puzzles – that won’t be changing, its what I enjoy most. That means the ride is bumpy at times, so buckle up! 🙂 Another year that third place horse could have been the winner.

I can say, with 100% certainty, that I would have never picked out the winner. Ignoring the stats etc, and just looking at it as a ‘normal handicap chase’ I would have had him down as a questionable stayer – 0/10,1 place beyond 24f  in chases and he was 0/3,0 places over 3m5f. He wasn’t even doing anything different. A brave battling performance from the horse though, so well done to him and connections. Tough. One of those. Time to look forwards…

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TIP

4.15 Hexham 

GibbsTown – 1 point win – 5/1 WON >7/2 

*prices as of 08.51

I am not sure if this one was bigger last night – I get the impression she probably was but I was out so am best not knowing! I think 5s is just about ok in the context of this race. 

This one very much looks like a ‘profile’ horse – a clear class dropper/class ceiling horse that I have been waiting to run in a C5 handicap chase over here since March last year. In handicap chases she is 4/10,6 places in C5. 0/15,4 places at all higher classes, on both sides of the Irish Sea. This is her level, she comes here off an attractive mark, and has the best jockey in the race (arguably the best in the north and one of best generally) She also likes this track – 2/3 at the course, and the trainer doesn’t usually mess around when he brings them here 4/13,8 places with all runners in last 730 days. She ticks plenty of boxes. There is also some pace on in this, on paper at least, which should help as she usually sits of the pace/held up. 

It is a shocker of a race clearly and nothing would be a total shock. There are some in form horses in here but they have all been running in weak races and have new questions to answer. Hopefully Gibbstown can see them all off. 

That is all for tips today.

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

March Trainers

3.15 Wolvs – Frangarry (any odds) UP

Jumps Handicappers

1.50 Southwell – Global Dream (12/1<) WON 11/4>5/2 

3.40 Hexham – Bell Weir (12/1<) UP 

 

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST 

 Nothing catches the eye. 

***

That is all for today, 

Good Luck

Josh 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

22 Responses

  1. Josh
    I had a 1/2pt EW on Ballyadam Approach so got my money back.. At 50/1 I couldn’t just leave the ew bit out.
    Thanks again.

    Hexham, 3m Chase. Flaming Thistle is 3 from at Hexham.

    I await your Tip with interest as usual.

    1. Good to hear Mike, I do enjoy it when readers ignore my strict advice for the better! At the odds that maybe should have been my thinking also but there we got. Don’t think I would have got myself to a point where I would have advised 1 point EW on him, so, not too much damage done. Glad you backed him EW though.

      Yep, Flaming Thistle is in form, but for this level, going up 9lbs is tough I think – despite his age though he is lightly raced and may be he still has a bit more to come. Hopefully he isn’t allowed to dictate from the front as could be dangerous if he is. Couldn’t leave the tracker horse though!

  2. You have to watch those Irish races very closely Josh, the usual commentator Des Cahill is notoriously awful, I once had a nice sum on a 20/1 poke, watched it all the way, Cahill never mentioned it once; I was yelling at ATR screen cheering it home and still he did not mention it, the SP popped up, sure enough it had won at 20/1 and they still played the replay with Scahill calling home entirely the wrong horse.

    I suppose he has an excuse when there are 10 runners with Green/Yellow and 10 runners with maroon in every race though!

    1. Yep, I have watched a few I think where he has called the wrong horse home! Adds to the entertainment I suppose!

    1. Ah, bugger. Well, 5s just about ok still I think. Was fearing that may have been the case alas life got in the way last evening!

  3. I did not see the IGN as Easter family events were in progress. The thing with Mouse Morris is that he has mystical leprechaun powers and so profiling goes out the window when the magic dust is sprinkled. I have has a bad cold for a week but feel better now. I am on a losing streak as well. But the sun is out and I hope the variance becomes favorable soon.

    1. yep, he had a ‘double handful’ there from the off – nice of the other jockeys to help him even more by taking each other on,not that it mattered. Bar two ‘hold your breath’ jumps I think – safe but a couple of ‘moments’ that looked in the bag for most of way. Those ones are always nice!

  4. Josh

    You did it again. I topped up the bank with my Flaming Thistle in the Forecast. Tap Tap Boom.

  5. Nice one Josh, but it only won by 5 lengths! Can you find an easier winner please?

    I will sort an additional donation.

    1. Cheers Martin, very generous of you, as always. That was nice to watch, especially when he said ‘go’ just before the last.

  6. Cheers Josh, everything plus a bit extra back from yesterday for me (only play e/w for half a point when you tip more than one in a race).
    Paul

  7. I dont normally get involved with jumpers but Gibbstown’s profile and handicap mark looked so strong I did have a small interest.
    It never really looked in doubt.Maybe I should look more at NH racing.These old horses have more chance of building a profile.
    Well done Josh. Small donation on the way.

    1. Thanks John, just seen that come in so cheers, much appreciated. Yep, with your approach to flat, you could transfer it to that type of jumper – expect you could find a small ‘team’ to follow – there will be a few like Gibbstown lurking. Your final point is one of reasons I like 3m+ chases so much – you have older horses whose profiles can be clear versus unexposed ones which you have to weight up etc. If you focused on handicap chasers, running in C4 and 5 that may be a decent place to start.

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