Ah, another puzzle goes unsolved – next year! From the four we backed at least we got one run for our money, from the 50/1 poke, who, out of all of them, I was least sure would stay! Alas he was a win only bet, but a brave and exciting run nonetheless. (clearly, with hindsight, I am kicking myself for not backing him EW) Wrath Of Titans threatened to get involved for a moment on the outside, a few from home, but that came to nothing. Kilford ran a strange race suggesting all was not well. Having been in a great position his jumping went to pieces a bit and he dropped out very quickly. Either a physical issue,burn out,or may he just didn’t like being surrounded by that many horses. Who knows. Is Killer Crow still running? Not sure if my eyes ever clocked onto him.
So, losing £100 (well £110 in the end) of my money on that one race wasn’t pleasant but that’s the way we roll in these parts. I test myself in the hardest races there are because I like to solve the toughest of puzzles – that won’t be changing, its what I enjoy most. That means the ride is bumpy at times, so buckle up! 🙂 Another year that third place horse could have been the winner.
I can say, with 100% certainty, that I would have never picked out the winner. Ignoring the stats etc, and just looking at it as a ‘normal handicap chase’ I would have had him down as a questionable stayer – 0/10,1 place beyond 24f in chases and he was 0/3,0 places over 3m5f. He wasn’t even doing anything different. A brave battling performance from the horse though, so well done to him and connections. Tough. One of those. Time to look forwards…
GibbsTown – 1 point win – 5/1 WON >7/2
*prices as of 08.51
I am not sure if this one was bigger last night – I get the impression she probably was but I was out so am best not knowing! I think 5s is just about ok in the context of this race.
This one very much looks like a ‘profile’ horse – a clear class dropper/class ceiling horse that I have been waiting to run in a C5 handicap chase over here since March last year. In handicap chases she is 4/10,6 places in C5. 0/15,4 places at all higher classes, on both sides of the Irish Sea. This is her level, she comes here off an attractive mark, and has the best jockey in the race (arguably the best in the north and one of best generally) She also likes this track – 2/3 at the course, and the trainer doesn’t usually mess around when he brings them here 4/13,8 places with all runners in last 730 days. She ticks plenty of boxes. There is also some pace on in this, on paper at least, which should help as she usually sits of the pace/held up.
It is a shocker of a race clearly and nothing would be a total shock. There are some in form horses in here but they have all been running in weak races and have new questions to answer. Hopefully Gibbstown can see them all off.
That is all for tips today.
3.15 Wolvs – Frangarry (any odds) UP
1.50 Southwell – Global Dream (12/1<) WON 11/4>5/2
3.40 Hexham – Bell Weir (12/1<) UP
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing catches the eye.
That is all for today,