Cheltenham Day 3: (COMPLETE)

What a day. Watching Sprinter Sacre swoop to the front will live long in the memory. Incredible, emotional and what this game is about – our sport at its very best. There is nothing much more to say, I will wait for an Alastair Down piece to put it into better words than I ever could. 

On the betting front we managed to claw back a few of our losses and a winner always helps the mood. He was probably lucky but you make your own luck – and the betting gods got their revenge on me in the last as the ‘bumper tip’ from Ben Pauling at the preview evening got done in a photo, by a nose, at 25/1. The Coral Cup – well the stats/profile worked wonders…picking out the 1st /4th/6th/7th from the 6 qualifiers. I couldnt back the winner at single figure odds this morning because of my incorrect thoughts on his handicap mark. Elliot is some trainer, and that is some horse. To win in that style, effectively carrying 18lbs more than his last run, is just impressive. Hats off to them. His SP of 12/1 looked decent enough! Waxies Dargle finished 6th – where all good EW 5 places bets finish! Hopefully some of you were with Coral 6 places but I won’t record him as making a profit – they would only accept £2.5EW of mine, the buggers, at 40/1. If he had tracked the winner, and taken the ‘Ruby Route’ up the inside, he would have been in the places. He lost a lot of ground circling the field,having been held up on the inner early. That is Cheltenham – a game of fine margins. There was also a slow pace in this race, which was surprising. When that is the case, unless you have bucket loads in hand/classy horse, on this ground it is hard to catch those near the front. 

We move on. 

Festival Running Total: 1/10,2 places = -2.5 points. 

To be honest, this feels like a make or break day in terms of coming out in-front (‘concerning’ given my Day 3 record to date! 🙂 )  so let’s get to it… 

***

TIPS 

Race 1 : 1.30 

Garde La Victoire – 1 point win – 4/1 (BetV . WH-free bet if 2nd) (Skybet money back if lose offer also!) 

I wasn’t planning on tipping in this one but he just looks so obvious – too obvious? 4/1 is fair – All Johnson’s festival winners start top 6 in the market and that is a decent micro angle. This horse has done nothing wrong, and look at those he has beat. He has stuffed the NTD horse twice. He brushed aside Fox Norton who ran a cracker in the Arkle. He smashed Dr Harper who won again and is a short price for the 5.30. He has track form. He stays. He will be much better on good ground. The yard is in form. The only niggle is his ‘low jumping’ but Skybet help with that – and come on, he has won three chases in a row and I don’t think he has looked like falling. If he jumps fine, then he must go mightily close here. Tempted to 2 point him but I will refrain! 

Outlander looks like a plodder? His two runs on good ground so far have been below par, being outpaced. He has that to prove. He has the class. I couldn’t touch the rest. 

***

Race 2: 2.10 

Cup Final – 1 point EW – 10/1 (general, get 5 places!) 

All Hell Let Loose – 1 point EW – 40/1 (Bet365/Racebets) 33/1 general

 

Now, Day 3 is usually like Day 1, a blank, but I have become increasingly bullish about these two – indeed if one or both don’t go close here I doubt I am destined to back a winner at ‘decent’ odds this year. 

A run in the last 90 days seems key (and my overall handicap hurdle stats show that a run in last 76 days is required,exc Fred Winter stats), French Bred is a negative in this race (0/69,12 places) and those that had 5-11 handicap hurdle runs are now 0/180,12 places in the race. This is an interesting stat – suggesting you either need to be unexposed, or battle hardened and dropping back to a winnable mark. That ‘middle range’ may suggest that the handicapper may have you. Those stats are too eye-catching to ignore. They may get broken this year, we shall see. 

Applying those stats removes nos. 2,3,4,5,6,7,10,11,17,19,21,22,24  – I believe. 

It leaves – Taglietelle / Warriors Tale / Join The Clan / Cup Final / Mall Dini / Oscar Sam / Padge / Saddlers Encore / All Hell Let Loose 

Now, there are some other eye-catching ‘general handicap hurdle stats’ to narrow that down a bit more. At last 5 festivals in handicap hurdles (exc Fred Winter) those with 3+ handicap wins (all handicaps,inc Flat) are 0/106, 8 places. Those with 3 or more handicap hurdle wins are 0/54,5 places…

One or both of those stats remove the Elliot horse, Join The Clan,Oscar Sam

Jockey’s claiming 6lb or more are 0/49 which also does for Jonjo’s – who is also 0/27 when using claiming jocks in recent years. 

Finally, those dropping 1-4 classes from last run are 0/95,4 places! This is a listed race, which means a drop from a Grade 3 is a drop of 1 class. That also does for Join The Clan and also Saddlers Encore. 

***

Stats wise, we have a fairly bombproof list of: Warriors Tale / Cup Final / Mall Dini / Padge / All Hell Let Loose…

Warriors Tale – well he was stuffed by Cup Final LTO – distance doesn’t suggest he was stuffed but go watch that video – Cup Final was still green I think and won with plenty in hand. This horse has been kept to Soft as well, so major ground questions. Nicholls is 0/11,2 places in the race. Not a negative,but one he is yet to target to good effect. 

Mall Dini is interesting and his form ties in with All Hell Let Loose – but, he has been kept to deep ground also, so that is a question. The trainer only operates at 5% with all runners as well, and I don’t know how good he will be at prepping a horse for this. He arguably has stamina questions as well. He may run well mind, he has Russell booked. Fun money saver maybe. 

Padge – I don’t think he will be good enough and he also has stamina questions, as does one of the selections admittedly. His Sire is 0/25, 10 places in all hurdles at track in last 730 days. On balance happy to leave, but he is big odds. You may wish to have a closer look at him.

**

CUP FINAL….I really don’t know why BG has left him here, but given how he rode today, maybe that is no bad thing 🙂 (jokes, I like Barry, class act,had one of those days) He won with any amount in hand to my eye, showing a good turn of foot in softer ground to pull away, off a slow pace as well. This race will suit and being out of Presenting he will relish this ground. Henderson won this last year, and horses that raced at MUSS LTO have won this race, I suspect from this same trial race but I am not sure. The danger is that he is a hold up horse and I don’t see loads of pace in this. Bar a fall, given everything I have seen, I would be surprised were he not in the top 5 here. There is a chance he may bounce, but I think that is small. The  lack of Barry is odd, but Mark Walsh has won at the track and if this horse has loads in hand, it should just be a steering job 🙂 

ALL HELL LET LOOSE – It has just dawned on me that Thursday is ‘Ryanair Day’ – I wonder how many of Mr Ryanair’s horses will run well today, maybe this has been the plan for this one! He is relatively unexposed and two starts ago chased home a horse called Diamond King. The ground is the massive change. He has one piece of old form, a decisive win, on Good, and hasn’t run on it since. There is every chance he may relish this surface. His Sire’s horses at this track are 2/11,6 places in all hurdles races in last 730 days. The stats for all of his runners on Good going are also decent. He has a change of headgear and he liked to lead/push pace. He should be in the right place for a race that may not be that strongly run. The one niggle is the trip – he is a half brother to a horse that won over 7f and up to 3m4f. I hope some of that stamina has rubbed of on him. He has not raced over a trip like this on Good ground. An unknown, but we are getting 40s. The other danger is what the visor does to him. His trainer is in form also, 2/6,3 places last 14 days. His mark has not really moved in some time – if this trip/hill/ground bring out improvement, he could storm away from these 🙂 

So, hopefully you can see why I have become increasingly bullish as I have thought about these. They are both exciting bets in this and I am looking forward to seeing them run. 

Of course a stats buster may win this, or one of those I have left from the shortlist. The stats profiles/shortlists have been working very well so far this Festival, and hopefully this is the race where my pins land on the right ones! 

Apparently he has been ‘Pricewised’ Thankfully for my wallet and yours, I don’t read his stuff,or follow his tips – the losses over the last year would be massive if I did! 

***

***

Race 5 – 4.10

La Vaticane – 1 point EW – 18/1 (5 places Bet365, 4 places general) NR

Empire of Dirt -1 point EW – 20/1 (5 places Bet365/SkyB, 4 places general) 

Ahh how frustrating, a non runner from a horse I was confident would run a stormer here. Had everything in her favour, everything. Profile shortlist/Pipe Qualifier/great jumper/prominent racer/good ground relisher – annoying. 

I have used a saver ‘HRB profile’ for this race – essentially created a profile from all the main general stats for the handicap chases here (excluding Novice Handicap Chase) – This profile found every winner from 2011-14. Last year it found 4 of them, this year from the one race so far it has already had the Pipe winner, Morning Assembly also qualified. 

The shortlist against that profile for this: Ballycasey (dropping in class big X,Mullins 0/18,5 places race), Full Shift (19th or lower in HRB ratings for race,those types now 0/97 odd,10 places last 5 festivals), Kings Lad (also 19th or below), Little John (5+ runs at track – 0/77,12 places in this race,19th or lower in HRB ratings), Salubrious and Stilleto for Nicholls (he is now 0/24,2 places in race) 

It left the two selections, with no blemishes at all stats wise from what I could see. Almost perfect. 

Empire of Dirt... progressive, must go LH,prominent runner,looks likely to appreciate better ground (sire decent record on Good), runs on Mr Ryanair day!, and ticks all the profile boxes. It looks like they have kept him for this and he could be ahead of his mark, with more to come. 

There are two negatives. Like a lot in this field his jumping can be suspect. With a trouble free round I am confident he won’t be too far away. Most of his falls are when going RH.

The other is that he is Irish trained, and as one of you have commented, they have a dire record in this. BUT, in the last 18 renewals only 41 have come from over the Irish Sea – 7 of them have placed, which is fine. There is also the question of his canny trainer – he has run 6 horses at the track, 3 have placed. He has run one horse in this race in 2012 – he came third.

On balance, given everything, and his price, I decided to go with him. 

Combining HRB ratings, profile for this race, race stats and trainer stats gives me plenty of meaty reasons why NO other horse can win this 🙂 clearly, one of those big stats is highly likely to be broken here,but i will say tomorrow why I didn’t like them! John’s Spirit – well he is now a silly price for a race like this and given the questions against him – he is under 14/1 for Jonjo in a handicap chase mind – but he is now 0/9,3 places Jan-April in handicap chases and his best form is on the other course. He has also had more than 5 runs at track (0/77,12 places) and there are a couple of stats he falls down on based on no of chase/handicap runs – 0/30+,3 places odd for both. 

PIPE – maybe I shouldn’t try second guessing him again. Kings Palace qualifies on his micro angle, but unlike his earlier winner, falls down on some hefty race stats. Saver/muggy bet material, maybe – well I have had something on, not second guessing again at those odds but given my race approach I can’t bring myself to tip him. Would be a major stats buster. 

Hopefully we get a good run for our money here. You could bet BetVictor with their faller insurance, as if he stands up, I think he will improve his trainer’s record here further,in the place column at worse!

*** 

Race 7  – 5.30 

Upswing – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH) 9/1 (general) 

Well, this one isn’t in my HRB profile (but neither was Holywell) but he ticks a lot of the boxes for this race. He qualifies on the Jonjo micro angle and I struggle to see him out of the places. At 10/1 or bigger, 5 places, I would have advised 1pt EW and I hope I don’t regret doing that. With a clear round he has to be in the mix. 

He is unexposed, will relish this ground, and ran in that cracker of a chase here two starts ago which has worked out oh so well. On paper there is also a ferocious pace to aim at, and for this course at least, it looks like it will  pay to be patient. He has one of, if not, the best jockey on him in the race and maybe he can bring up the double for connections. He is unexposed and could have plenty more to come and he will stay all the way to the line. It is just whether he can get into a rhythm,as I think that is the only question here. Again, it looks like he must have been aimed for this. And well, I had to back a Jonjo chaser at some point! 

There are some strong stats pointers for this,and some ‘secondary stats’. Those that ran in a Non-handicap LTO are 0/65,12 places – that does for Dr Harper who is also not the usual ‘Pipe profile’ for the Festival (too many recent runs) – but, on handicapping terms he looks a good thing, short though – dont mind those going in unbacked at 5s, its his ones at 16/1 that are annoying!! 🙂 Nicholls is 0/16,1 place in the race, Tom George 0/11,1 place. Those with 3 or more handicap chase wins are 0/83,7 places – those stats help knock out quite a few. 

I couldn’t get away from this one and happy to have him onside. 

8 points on the day is a bit above budget, but I am feeling bullish and it is Cheltenham! We shall see if I have been foolish come 5.40! 

 

***

Other races/notes

Race 3 

No real thoughts, I will just watch and enjoy. They say Vautour is only 90%, which could just be boll**ks and RR was searching for an excuse for the late switch (other than my trainer has bullied me into this decision!) I don’t think any horse wins here at only 90%, however good you are. But, that view can’t be measured! At his best he wins this well. Before his participation I was going to have a fun EW bet on Josses Hill – and I may still do that. (got some bullets from SkyBet) Not one to get heavily involved for me

Race 4

Thistlecracks to lose isn’t it?? They think he will relish the ground also. He could make 5/4 look like a 5/1 shot, and if trained by some ‘bigger guns’ would be what, 4/6 or shorter?

I hope he hacks up. (jockey stats at Festival over hurdles only niggle,but he has never ridden anything this good and he wont be the reason he doesn’t win) 

Whisper is maybe the EW bet on this ground, at the odds. 

Race 6

Oh please. Move on. 🙂 

Interesting at the preview that the Trainers were bemoaning this race, saying it should be a chase. A decent programme for mares is vital to the sport – they said all the trainers wanted a chase, and the BHA ignored them! 

***

MEMBERS REPORT 

Micro Systems 

March Trainer

6.50 Chelm – Vimy Ridge 

Jumps Handicappers

5.10 Hexham – Surprise Vendor 

 

***

Phew, that is all for today. 

I am off to the pub today with some of you good blog readers. My day will consist of drinking a little bit, watching all the races,going for dinner….the watching ‘the match’. A long, relaxing day. As such, highly unlikely there will be anything up here before tomorrow morning. I will do some prep before I leave today once runners confirmed and will be in good shape to get up early! Hopefully I/we won’t be chasing. No, we wont be, we will be going into tomorrow with 50 odd points in the bank. All about the mindset 🙂 

Good Luck, as always, with all your bets. If you are taking me on, then not too much luck, if mine are still in contention!! 

Enjoy your day.

Josh 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

77 Responses

  1. Pretty certain you should be able to get 50/1 on AHLL at 8:30am on 365 tomorrow morning (at worst it will be 40/1 if it drops between now and than)

  2. All Hell Let Loose – 1 point EW – 40/1 (Bet365/Racebets) 33/1 general
    Down to 28/1 now have you lumped on Josh

  3. Up to now Josh a good Festival Pipe NTD and Elliot are my go to trainers so a very good day today and broke even yesterday. Lumpy treble will be pulled off if BDMai goes in tmorrow. Ive already done AHLL for the Pertemps as i thought its last run in the irish qualifier just staying on into 6th was a perfect set up for the final.the head gear thats on tomorrow increases confidence. same trainer has one in the county on friday that ive done nrnb and in a double. some one mentioned in a previous post surf and turf for the grand annual. due to his record after a break. i backed him when he won at aintree on the thursday last year on the trainer jockey combo b hughes at 20%. hes already jocked up at just done him at 50/1with betfred My treble tomorrow tagiatelle/road to riches /silver grove. plus think venetia will go close with tango de julliey with young kennedy up any which way she will have a winner before the weeks out

    1. Great to hear Tony – yes, you can do a lot worse than following those trainers. So pleased for team Twister – love that yard and horses always try to the line, have guts, and stay. Epitomized by both their winners today. Good luck with all your other bets, yet to cast my eyes to Friday but a couple of you have mentioned that horse now!

      1. Yeah, he does often improve horses when they go up in trip and they can often run well after a long break.

        However, I don;t listen to what he says. Don;t think he comes out with much that is useful information at all. It may also be telling that he is about the only leading trainer that is never represented in the Racing Posts stable tours at the beginning of the jumps season.

  4. satisfied with Day 2

    I was one of the jammy dodgers who got Waxie’s Dargle on with Coral paying out for 6th! And I gave it the full 1pt e/w treatment as this tip made a lot of sense

    But I gave Diego du Charmill a miss, so it’s swings and roundabouts

    1. Ah glad to hear you got a full point on EW 6 places, nice result that at 40s. Ah, shame you missed Nicholls one, but using your own judgement made you win more on the first, and you probably ended up ahead, against just following my stakes anyway!

  5. David Pipe is aiming to win the 5.30 for second year with Doctor Harper for the Johnson family(2015 The Package) but he also has alternatif entered,a rested horse 33/1 currently with bv,well beaten by your selection perfect candidate,maybe a fact finding mission that day?

  6. The 2.10 – Your leading trends also remove Broxbourne (no 16) he’s had 8 hrdle runs. I really fancyhim though..

    Unraced since december when he finished 3rd at Kempton in order to qualify him for the race. I particularly like his run at 2m5f at Cheltenham in April last year behind the Governess. Reported as staying on that day and 3m is probably his best trip. Nicky Henderson has been reported as saying he has been aimed at the race and decent ground is suitable. Also gets cheekpieces for the first time today.

  7. Barry Gerraghty rides the favourite . He looks interesting to me. Charles Byrnes is a good trainer at targeting big handicaps and of cpurse he is McManus owned – he has a good record in this race too A top compbination?

    Was fifth in the Pertemps qualifier for this at Leopardstown last time – apparentlythat race has a very good reputation for producing the winner of this. That was on heavy and he probably prefers it a lot quicker than that. Not raced since so probably been aimed at the race. First time hood on.

    He just misses your trend of 5-11 previous hurdle runs (he’s had 11) so a borderline fail!

    I think he is a justifiable favourrite. Mind you, I haven;t hit the target yet in a handicap race at the festival (although did fancy Ubak to get placed today).

    1. Cant put you off and 7/1 is short in this race, well any handicap here – unless a Nicholls micro angle haha. The 80 days off is also a negative for him – but, BG has clearly picked him for a reason.

  8. It would seem thatbetween them, David Pipe, Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson have won eight of the last eleven Plate chases between them . Maybe best to concentrate on their runners? – mind you, they have nine between them. Irish trainers have a dire record – 1 win since 1951. 4 Irish trained horses in the race this year.

  9. After the Sprinter party we are back at the hotel. The rest of the mini syndicate have lost consciousness and I have sat here watching Arsenal fail in front of goal again and have been through Thursday’s cards via Geegeez. We have £1720 left of our original £2000 stake between us. I have been tasked with the selections and so here goes:

    1.30 Outlander £300 at 5/1
    2.10 Cup Final £150 each way at 10/1 and I have to back a Bradstock horse, so £50 each way at 40/1
    2.50 Vautour (absolute class) 600 at 5/6
    3.30 Thistlecrack (I cant see past it) £500 at 5/4
    4.50 Smart Talk £200 win at 15/2

    I make that £2,000 and so had to top the pot up!

    Josh, had £5 each way on for you on All Hell Let loose plus will give an additional donation if Cup Final wins.

    Good luck all

  10. All Hell Let Loose 3ml has looked a bit to far for him,i know the ground was soft so better ground might help.but I will not be taking a chance on him.my money is on Our Kaempfer.Cheers BoB

    1. Yep, tend to agree with you Bob about stamina question – think it could be all about ground, and there is some blood in him which suggests could be fine. And, with any 40/1 / 33/1 shot there will always be some sort of question – he may empty up the hill but I was happy to take chance. Charlie really fancies his in here so good luck.

  11. had ago on all hell let loose only managed 28/1 tho two I like are full shift 4.10 and indian castle 5.30 interested see what your takes on them races will be tomorrow josh

  12. Hi Josh, can’t have Cup Final for the same reason as Waxie’s Dargle today and your comments about the route Mark Walsh took confirm it for me. If you look at the jocks who win at the festival it is the same names again and again. I kicked myself for not noticing Davy Russell was on DK today. Too much to hope that he gets Mall Dini home tomorrow but that is where my hopes lie despite his trainer.

  13. As an Evertonian I’ve had Cup Final on my mind since Saturday. It must be an omen surely?
    Well done on Diego today. Let’s face it Cheltenham is a great spectacle but most of us back too many races at it to make money . I find myself backing in races I would normally leave well alone. Breaking even on Cheltenham is success if you take it as the great spectacle it is . Anything more is a bonus. The scenes for Sprinter Sacre were special today.

  14. 1:30 CHELTENHAM
    Outlander

    2:10 CHELTENHAM
    Arpege D´Alene
    Westren Warrior
    All Hell Let Loose
    2:50 CHELTENHAM
    Al Ferof
    Josses Hill
    Dynaste if that Pipe horse is healthy after his breathing problem can win even 36/1

    3:30 CHELTENHAM
    Kilcooley

    4:10 CHELTENHAM
    La Vaticane
    Tenor Nivernais

    4:50 CHELTENHAM
    Smart Talk

    5:30 CHELTENHAM
    Midnight Prayer
    Alternatif

    But bet of the day goes to 2:50 Captain Conan 150/1 lol

  15. Reference the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) 5.30 Cheltenham Friday.
    Surf and Turf is to be ridden by Brian Hughes though two need to come out, I expect the maximum is 23.
    S&T won Betfred Red Rum Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 9Apr15 Brian Hughes £45K.
    Owner Carl Hinchy; solicitor; has 5 horses with trainer Kevin Frost (currently 21% Chasers) and 11 more horses with Rebecca Curtis and 2 with John Quinn, so no bit player.
    I can see that with this kind of backing S&T should get a run.

  16. 1:30 Garde La Victoire 0.75pt win
    2:10 Saddlers Encore 0.5pt e/w, Western Warrior 0.5pt e/w, Un Ace 0.375pt e/w
    2:50 Road to Riches 0.75pt e/w
    3:30 Cole Harden 0.375pt e/w
    4:10 Fingal Bay 0.75pt e/w, Le Vaticane 0.75pt e/w
    4:50 Smart Talk 0.75pt e/w, Tea in Tranversal 0.375pt e/w
    5:30 Upswing 0.75pt e/w, A Good Skin 0.375pt e/w, Ericht 0.25pt e/w, Amigo 0.25pt e/w

  17. Reference the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Handicap) (Grade 3) (CLASS 1) 5.30 Cheltenham Friday.
    Racing Post Weekender has a write-up about Jessica Harrington who is keen on her horse ‘Rock The World’ (Cheltenham form) and their Irish journalist also fancies him.

    1. ah cheers, well that would explain that one then. Good to see he has been reading the blog 🙂 He has been horrendously out of form in recent months I believe (don’t read Post daily) but think he may have had one/two winners this week so hopefully he is hitting some form!

  18. Garde La Victoire has already thrashed BDM and is unbeaten over fences. At the Donny preview night all of Ben Linfoot (Sp. Life), Tom O Ryan and Andrew Thornton were big on him. Can’t see anything to get anywhere near Thistlecrack in WH and got on at 11/8 during the Coral live online preview last Sunday. I actually think that’s a value price given his superiority here.

  19. Is Kings Palace somewhat a forgotten horse in the 4.10? Pipe has a knack of getting a horse to win in big hcp chases after they’ve been pulled up. Also KP has decent enough hurdle form round Cheltenham, whether that counts for much in this race is beyond me! I had a punt on La Vaticane last night as he was one that popped up in my trends but KP is now screaming at me!

  20. You did well to get 11s on Upswing Josh. Hills playing silly buggers with pricing again. They pushed Bloody Mary out from 12s to 16s in the previous race similarly as well…if you look at the price movement on Oddschecker they are almost identical. Connections think both of Jonjo’s should run well apparently.

  21. I really like Upswing too and La Vaticaine before he got withdrawn.
    I’ve now plumped for Nice One Frankie (trainer targets this race, mark doesn’t look bad, has winning form at the track and ran well behind Tango de Juilley last time), as well as last year’s winner Darna.

    In the 5.30 Amigo might be interesting at a massive price. Trained by David Pipe. Hasn’t run for nearly a year but ran very well behind Carruthers in a half decent race at Newbury off 3lbs lower than today. Didn’t stay next time in the Scottish National and then ran over hurdles. David Pipe can certainly ready one after a long absence at this meeting (eg: Western Warhorse) and Gina Andrews is probably one of the better jockeys in the race, so think this one is interesting. No Cheltenham form is a probable negative but 501 looks huge.

    I also like Josses Hill in the Ryanair. Does well at the festival and his last effort was very promising, I thought.He’s a big price at 28/1.

  22. Skybet have put Thistlecarck up for a Price Boost – that means a 65% loser!

    Pick 6 Selection History (Had 6 goes broke even twice & profit 4 x at level stakes, not at all confident today tho?)

    Date Selection Result SP WPU
    Thursday 17/03/16
    Leg 1 1:30 Cheltenham Garde La Victoire – 7/2
    Leg 2 2:10 Cheltenham Join The Clan – 28/1
    Leg 3 2:50 Cheltenham Road To Riches – 7/1
    Leg 4 3:15 Hexham The Bishop – 5/1
    Leg 5 3:30 Cheltenham Cole Harden – 11/2
    Leg 6 4:10 Cheltenham Niceonefrankie – 16/1

  23. Hope to see Thitlecrack for connections and racing. Don’t like lumping on short prices but could be good value for those that do. 17.30 like Indian Castle and Grandads Horse.

  24. interesting stat about pipe @ cheltenham, LTO 38days + = 10 won from 79= + 85 level profit.
    un temps pour too, only qualifier so far won @ 16 -1. had £7 win & put in cheltenham lucky 15, all won, got £233 for £2.25 stake.
    good day tuesday

    1. yep, all winners 20/1 or shorter I believe, when over that price none have yet to place – I think. Well it is on my micro angle which is slightly different to that one. Good Luck if you have a dart.

  25. Upswing certainly has top jockey on board today,comes from my own county,together with the peerless Paddy Brennan,unfortunately Graham Lee has deserted the jumpers.

  26. A half point “fun money saver” has just popped in at 20/1 – Thanks Josh. (Russell is a wily old fox in these type of races)

    Another excellent sorting out of an impossible 3 Mile handicap

    Keep em Comin !!

    1. Glad you read the post,that’s why I ramble on so much haha. Do think I need a ‘final judgement transplant’ that is frustrating. Just go with Russel! Cup Final bounced, other ran out of gas/not good enough. I wont care if Empire of Dirt romps home. Stats/profiles having a blinder,shame I cant pick’em!! One year we will have a stormer 🙂

  27. Hi Josh, Mall Dini for good old Davy Russell helped emphasize the point about jocks. Took your comment about posting in advance to heart!

    1. Yep,good call on that,albeit jockey wasn’t excuse for Cup Final. Festival Jocks clearly an area I need to work on,as well as final decision. Game of fine margins. That is a pleasing and gutting result all in one!

  28. Our two bankers have gone in and we are £25 down on the week All that effort!

    Backed the first winner on a special offer and so am getting £5 on any Irish winner. Need a 100/1 shot now.
    r

  29. Lovely Jubbly Josh

    Given a patient ride having nearly being unseated at the first – Big thanks to Brian Cooper (Great pair of hands and smart brain)

    23/1 on Betfair

    I think a large BOOMMMMM!!! and a nice profit for the week heading into Friday

  30. BOOOMMMMMM!!! 🙂 glad you backers kept the faith. 19 point profit on day, 16.5 points on the meeting. I wont be giving all those back tomorrow! Enjoy your evening,I’m slowly getting intoxicated on the ‘black gold’.

  31. Thanks josh you are a legend turned my Cheltenham around on empire of dosh enjoy the black gold well earned bring on tomorrow

  32. A big cheer to you josh for guiding us through the hardest meeting to find a winner,the faithfull are well up thanks to your hard work,have a few beers and relax,it matters not if we drop a few points tomorrow,its a lot of pressure to find winners,even more so with followers,my solitary winner was altior and I didn’t even back it,im also on day 2 of celibacy after my bankers flopped on gf lucky 15 lol

  33. Just finished parents evening ( as a teacher ) and checked the results . Nicely in profit now over the 3 days thanks to your Empire of Dirt nod. Cheers Josh enjoy your night off.

  34. Well done Josh and thank you again. Brian Cooper gave the horse a peach of a ride avoiding all the trouble and steadily progressing to win quite comfortably I thought. Kudos to you..

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.