Empire of ‘Dosh’ lit up the Festival for us and it was about time my pin landed on the right biggie from a shortlist. I rather roared him home and he did it oh so well. Brilliant. He received an exceptional ride also, top marks to Cooper.
I have learnt a few things this week. When a Gordon Elliot handicapper is in a stats/HRB profile shortlist, don’t leave them alone. When a horse is shortlisted and has Davy Russell booked, then never leave him alone! Watching his mount sluice up in the 2.10, 20/1, having been on a shortlist of 5, was annoying, to say the least. Hopefully some of you had a ‘saver’ on. But, it is a positive. My approach seems to be working for these big handicaps and one of these years we will have a hat full of winners. With some better picking on my part we could have had 16/1,8/1 and 20/1 winners, to add to the two we have had. Exciting and frustrating.
Anyway, we are 16.5 points up going into today and I have spread 8 of those on today’s bets, leaving a guaranteed profit of 8.5 points on the week. Hopefully I can add to it today…
Race 2 – 2.10
Great Field – 1 point win – 9/1 (WH/Coral) 8/1 genral
Modus – 1 point win – 18/1 (WH) 16/1 (general)
This race looks a minefield and I have tried not to over-complicate it too much. The stats/profile does not help too much in narrowing it down, and in any case I think some educated guesswork is probably required.
Great Field – Mullins has a great record in this race and this is a qualifier on a micro angle I have for him, with his unexposed hurdlers. 9/1 was fair enough for this ‘could be anything’ type. All of Mullins horses, and all those aged 5/6 should be feared, but he looks the best of them. The others have a few questions on form/ground, but given his form this week you can never write them off and I would not be shocked if one or more placed at worse.
Modus – Nicholls also has a very good record in this race and this one qualifies on the micro system in my guide. I think we can put a line through that last run based on the going. He was never really put into the race. His bumper form, here and at Punchestown, marks him down as a very smart horse and he could be well in. I was happy to take a punt at those odds. I would be concerned if he drifted, given most of Nicholls winners go off 16/1 or shorter.
Blue Hell’s last race is obviously working out well and he would have a shout, albeit the break tempers a bit of enthusiasm at those odds. I am hoping the same connections have the winner of the last though.
These two will do.
I should add that Alan King’s ‘Montbazon‘ ‘qualifies’ as an EW bet on the micro i researched on the blog, and maybe he is worth some fun money change.
Race 3 – 2.50
I was going to have a bet in this. My success in the last two years has mainly been down to the fact the ground has turned heavy, and my eye for a mud-lark has come in handy. I don’t have that luxury this year. My stats didn’t narrow it down much at all and I rather gave up trying to work out who would improve for the step up/who would stay etc. Hopefully Johnson can get on the board but I would have just been tipping his for the sake of it – if he stays he wont be far away.
Race 4: The Gold Cup
Already previewed last week.
Don Poli – 2 point win 11/2
Cue Card – 1 point win 11/2
Race 6 – 4.50
Qualando – 1/2 point win 10/1 (general)
Mr Mix – 1/2 point win 20/1 (general)
This looks a horrible race as well! These two qualify for my Nicholls micro angle and they will do. His other also qualifies as well but he was not in Top 4 LTO, which is s negative for this race – in the 7 renewals to date. You could make a case for plenty but for 1/2 points, in a race where it is hard to be confident, that will do.
Race 7 – 5.30
Lough Kent – 1 point win 14/1 (general)
Velvet Maker – 1 point win 12/1 (general)
The Daily Punt blog are sending out stats/write up for this one and I will post link when I have it.
Probably my two most confident picks of the day, bar the Gold Cup, and these should run crackers I think. They tick all the stats boxes and should be kept off what looks like a ferocious pace. Chris Pea Green also caught my eye but he is near the bottom on the HRB ratings which have been a decent guide for crossing out horses in these handicaps. If he jumps, he wont be far away though I don’t think.
I have a few free bets to use from SkyBet I think and the Nicholls horse is well touted. Maybe they will go on him, in a race I have no strong views on. You also have their offer as well.
Not a race I will be betting in. No views, betting wise.
DAILY MEMBERS REPORT
1.45 Ling – Masterpaver
That is all for today. Good Luck.
As always, I am interested to hear what you fancy and how your week has gone etc.