Cheltenham Day 2: Tips (COMPLETE)

I think I will give the first day a pass next year, that being the 3rd year in a row I have had a blank. Actually, ignoring the -5.5 points on the day, there were quite a few positives to take from the day.

25f handicap chase – The Young Master ran a fine race in 3rd, unlike the other two. It looks like it’s good ground based on times, maybe with some firm in, I’m not sure. Anyway, there wasn’t any soft and maybe Doing Fine was taken out of his ground. It was left field, and they do come off every now and then. Not today. 

The winner – well there are positives in that he was in the ‘profile’ list and he was a selection for the Pipe micro angle. If only I had just gone with that, nothing more needed! I don’t think I will ever try and second guess the Pipes again when they have such a runner. That angle I researched for the guide is now 5/19,11 places in handicap chases in last 6 Festivals. Bugger. The 1st and 2nd came from the 4 qualifiers for those angles. He finished his race off better than his runs this season would suggest he might,and jumped better – but, maybe we can put that down to the Pipe’s being in iffy form at the time. Ground was a question also. He is clearly smart, to win a handicap here like that, and if he transferred his hurdles form that was possible. Always easy to say after they have dotted up of course.

I see it as a positive that he was a 16/1 shot that, with my approach, could have been found. I didn’t today, but over time…

Southfield Royale ran a fine race, no real complaints, 5th. Nina did run an extra 1/2 mile round than the rest of them mind, not sure why! Hopefully some of you read the comment about Jonjo’s and may have had a saver, esp when he drifted from 6s to 9s! – the run of Holywell suggested his were bouncing, as they usually are this week. His previous form can now be safely ignored. Rizorbi was running a fine race in the last also before falling late – the less said about that race the better…

It was enjoyable to watch some of the classier performances. Great racing and well done to connections. 

Anyway, previous year’s Day 1s have been worse than that – always the Coral Cup and Fred Winter to dig me out of pot-hole! 🙂 ….Onwards…



2.50 Coral Cup 

Politologue – 1 point win –  UP

Brother Ted – 1/2 point EW – UP (7th) 

Waxies Dargle – 1/2 point EW – UP (6th,agonising, – Corals paid 6th) 


4.50 Fred Winter 

Diego Du Charmil – 1 point win  – WON 7/1 

Ardamir – 1/2 point EW  – UP

Day Total: 1/5,1 place = +3 points 

Festival Total: 1/10,2 places = -2.5 points 




2.10 RSA

NO BET… I think one of the top two should be winning this. If Jonjo had a bad day I was going to talk myself into a bet on No More Heroes. Given his form today and how his ran, and the ground, I would be tempted to side with his. But, I won’t be advising lumping on a 2/1 shot at The Festival. That doesn’t come naturally to me. 


2.50 Coral Cup 

Politologue – 1 point win – 10/1 (general, use PP if can)

Brother Ted – 1/2 point EW – 25/1 (5 places…BoyleS/SkyB/BV/Lad/SJ)

Waxies Dargle – 1/2 point EW – 40/1 (5 places… SJ – 33/1 general)


My profile for this removes no.s 1,2,4,7,12,19,20,21,22,23

That obviously leaves quite a few left. Those that fell last time out are 0/16, 1 place and those that ran in a chase LTO in all handicap hurdles here at last 5 festivals are 0/44, 4 places…that removes a few, most of them for Willie Mullins. No win in last 5 runs is a negative in this race, as is having 3 or more wins this season (0/57,8places). Those running in a handicap hurdle here after 76 days or more are 0/87, 13 places at last 5 festivals. As always you can find stats to remove every runner but those ones have been my guide. 

I think that lot leaves a shortlist of Blazer / Brother Ted / Diamond King / Politologue / Waxies Dargle / Rock The Kasbah 

Prolitologue – ticks the profile for Nichols hurdle winners here and is also a qualifier for a couple of micro angles I have for him, as mentioned in guide. At 10s, I had to back him given that and his place on the stats shortlist. He could be anything and have plenty in hand. He may not be any good of course and I don’t know how he will handle the ground. But, this angle provided 14/1 and 25/1 winners last year so I will stick with it. 

Brother Ted – is the first of two where you would think they have been deserted by main stable/owner jockeys. But, at the price, I didn’t want to let that put me off. He relished good ground which has to be a positive – they may be watering before Thursday. He stays this trip and I think there is still room in his mark.He is only 6lb higher than when winning easily at Kempton a few starts ago. He has one disappointing run here in a class 3 novice in Jan 2015 – that race has worked out well, a horse called Different Gravy was under 2 lengths in-front of him there and plenty of other winners around him. Hobbs is also 2/23, 4 places in this race and his continue in good form. Hopefully this one can get competitive,if getting up the hill. I think the ground could be key. 

Waxies Dargle – well he ticks the profile boxes, the trainer is 0/11, 2 places in this race and he is in fine form – 3/12,7 places last 30 days. 2/7 last two weeks. He has had a few runs now but what interested me was the step up in trip. This is his first go at it, and fits into that ‘doing something different’ category. He runs as if it is about time he tried it. You don’t know until they try and his breeding is questionable. But, I couldnt leave him at 33/1. Maybe this has been a plan for sometime given connections, who knows. He did also run a decent 5th at Newbury in that hot race which is already working out well. He finished 6L behind Old Guard here in November. He was outpaced by the two in front of him there but he kept plugging on. I can’t really be sure whether he didn’t stay, or was an indication that he wants further! At the odds, happy to throw an educated dart. 

I was tempted to throw an extra 1/2 on them to win, so that 1 point on each on the win side. But, I wan’t to stick to the budget and it is a rather competitive race! 3 points on this is enough. 

Of the others…well you could spend all evening going through every runner and be no closer to finding the winner. Blazer – he could bounce back and all Mullins handicap hurdlers aged 5 or 6 should be feared. He has a few in here, which concerns me! He was flat last time and the selection was ahead of him. If he bounces back he could have plenty in hand, or he may not be as good as they expected. Mullins is 0/15,2 places in this race to date. Diamond King will have to be some horse to win from this mark – surely he can’t have anything in hand after Phil Smith hammered him. Rock The Kasbah – well I can’t say he looks well handicapped either – he also ran at Ascot LTO and in handicaps those runners are now 0/92, 12 places at last few festivals. 

Of course I may not have mentioned the winner,and a stats/profile buster will romp home, but hopefully these three give us a good run for our money. There looks to be plenty of pace on paper and these three are normally held up off the pace – given the ground it was very much about pace – whether best to be near front or come from back – winners came from everywhere – this looks likely to be strongly run I think, so hopefully the pace collapses. 


Mullins is 5/25 with his handicap hurdlers aged 5 and 6 at last 5 Festivals. He has a few in here, most of which ran over Fences LTO which is a negative. BLAZER looks the most likely on that angle, but maybe I am over thinking it again! 


4.50 Fred Winter 

Diego Du Charmil – 1 point win – 7/1 (BetF/BV/PP/WH) 

Ardamir – 1/2 point EW – 16/1 (5 places Bet365, 4 places general) 


This race is a bit of a minefield and maybe only fools play in it, but it has served me well recently,(well, last year!) surprisingly.

Diego Du Charmil – he qualifies on my Nichols micro angle from the guide and we all know what happened yesterday. He has been the talking horse of talking horses and if all vibes are to believed he will make 7/1 look a decent price. Value in this game is a tricky thing, and while I get nervous lumping on 2/1< shorties, Cheltenham is a one off event where to an extent you do want to back winners – and ‘value’ is less relevant. He does feel a tad on the short side for a race like this but maybe that is for a reason. His only ‘stats’ blip in terms of race profile is his days rest – all 11 winners so far have raced within the last 37 days – those returning after 61+ days off are 0/32, 5 places. But, we know the trainer can ready them. It looks likely to be how he handles the experience and whether he settles. If he does he is clearly expected to go well. 

Hopefully after today it will be known as ‘Paul Nichols Wednesday’. 

Ardamir is a perfect profile fit from what I can see – 10/11 winners rated OR124-33 is a good indication and in fact all winners to date rated OR133 or below (0/45,10 places above this) Although, the fact there are 12 horses above this suggests the race may be getting classier (given an average of 4 or so in all previous years…) 

He also ticks the boxes for the Alan King micro that I looked at on the blog – 1/10,8 places in handicap hurdles. King is also 0/17,5 places in the race – so he deserves a win. This horse will relish the ground and may well improve a bucket load for a race run at a good pace. I would like to think there is plenty more to come and he could get involved here. Kings horses that completed LTO and were 3rd or worse are 0/71 in recent years which, along with lack of career win, puts me off Fehily’s mount. Paddy’s Runner ran on AW LTO which is a negative and he looks ‘exposed’. 

Off the rest…well a strong mention for Henderson’s horse at the top. He qualifies on a micro I have for his – not in the guide but it looks at his unexposed ones with 1-3 career runs, 1-2 career wins (in UK). 3/6, +50 points in last (a slight extension to rules of the first system in guide). So, that makes his interesting. He has the rating stat to overcome and Topweights/joint are now 0/12,4 places. He could just be classier than these and still have more in hand. Maybe worth a ‘just in case’ saver,based on trainer alone. 

Of the rest, well I am sure you could make a case for plenty. I looked at the Easterby horse but those that are bottom/joint bottom weight are now 0/19, 1 place in this race, and that put me off a tad. It is hard to weight up a lot of the form here, and how much improvement these have to come. We should have two onside who will run their race, with any luck. We shall see if the rating trend is maintained…



Other Notes….

Race 1

No real thoughts on this, I would like to see Yanworth win but couldn’t take his, or Yorkhill’s price in singles, without an ‘offer’….

We have Skybet’s offer again and maybe I will just put it on the King horse, or A Toi Phil at a bigger price – ground an unknown for him. 

Race 2

I couldn’t decide between the top 2 so have left it. On chase form alone you would back the two times G1 winner No More Heroes. On hurdles form and that of Jonjo’s runners yesterday, and his liking for this ground, you would go with his. He does fall down on a few stats though. Tricky. 

Henderson is 2/13,5 places in the race and those that ran at Ascot LTO have a good record in this race. For a ‘working man’s price’ his one may be worth some fun money – that’s where my £5 will probably go. (and obviously kick myself for not lumping on NMH when he romps home!) If he touched 3/1 that may tempt me. 

Race 4

Again no strong views. The fav should win if standing up and it will be interesting how he reacts if taken on up front. 

Gods Own at 12/1 EW , 1/4 3 places with Bet365 without the fav looks interesting. If UDS wins I believe that means paying down to 4th place – given his liking for this ground,the run of Tom’s yesterday (in form), and the fact that he chased home UDS in the Arkle, there are worse ‘interest’ bets I think. I should think he will be ridden for a place and could get 4th or 3rd. 

It would be great if Sprinter could roll back the years and I will be cheering him on. 

Race 5 

This is a conditions race now which add some more intrigue – Josies Orders does look the obvious one, and maybe 11/4 is a decent price. I know some who think that is massive and have ‘lumped on’.  I backed Quantitativeeasing in this last year when he looked to be going really well when taken out. He would have played a role in the finish there and I can’t see why he wont again this year. A 1-2 with his stable-mate maybe!

Experience over these fences is usually key. I would like Balthazar King to win but that would be some performance to take this after his absence.

Race 7 

A bit of a minefield. You want one who won by more than 1l LTO and who was 6/1 or shorter. My poke is on Battleford at 25/1, who was discussed at the Liverpool Preview evening – Jockey bookings suggest that is a wasted fun bet! I have no real idea and haven’t looked in much depth. 


Good Luck 




Micro Systems

Jumps Handicappers

4.25 Bang – Bell Weir 3rd 8/1>6/1



I should add – I welcome all your comments, and encourage them, you know that. It all adds to the content and I enjoy speaking to you. However, especially this week, if you do fancy a horse etc, please say so before they race. 🙂 



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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

55 Responses

  1. Good evening Josh I think o o seven is much to big a price at 25/1 for the opener tomorrow,he was well held by yorkhill trading at 9/4 las time they met,he may not be good enough to win but good value to place,cheltenham is certainly tougher than Sedgefield,was business as usual there with Jefferson taking the bumper,dalgliesh and slack also on the winners list

    1. evening Gerry, will have a look at him! Money back with SB also, have a free bet from them to use up. This ground is very quick – remember reading somewhere that Hendos all worth close inspection if fast ground as his tend to have a lot of speed.

  2. Hi Josh, i was on Un Temps today after re reading your Cheltenham trends last night. and thinking that it is worth backing all those qualifiers as trying to out think the Pipes is not advisable. Good angle.

    1. Hi Hugh, I wish I had your foresight, but glad someone profited from my research!! Trying to out think them is more than not advisable, quite idiotic really! At 16s, he should have been there somewhere, even for 1/2 a point. He had become very well handicapped – funny that! Always makes sense after they have won. Glad you had a piece. That angle will be profitable for some time to come I hope and I wont be leaving any others.

    2. good stat choice when i narrowed it down,i opted for beg to differ simply because utpt keeps losing for me when i back it,and wins when i miss it (world hurdle last year then won in france!!!!!!) a 163 hurdler on 148 looked very appealing but i decided if the ground was too fast i wouldnt bother and when i see 3m45 in the supreme followed by a 3m49 in the arkle ,then it was a no for me as he seems to need soft/heavy to show his best,well it looked like it did previously.this horse i just cannot catch right!!!1

  3. I backed him, but for the RSA, antipost!

    Queen Mother, I have Special Tiara to beat Dodging Bullets, but close enough that it has to be a Reverse Forecast.

    The only plot that I have found at Cheltenham is 5.30 Friday Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup.
    Surf and Turf now with Kevin Frost, April 2014, has won 2X FTO after a long winter break, 50/1.

    1. no overly strong thoughts – I hope he hacks up for his trainer – ground is the only question but he handled Good in the bumper here last year – this ground, and must be getting on firm side in places – is a question for most now. King says he is the best he has trained, and I would like to trust that judgement – he cant say that lightly. That says is all for me and I hope he proves him right. Yorkhill certainly can (ground unknown again) and his other one, A Toi Phil, may be the EW play, – ground q again! I couldn’t be dogmatic enough to lump on one. Skybet free bet to play with though!

  4. when analysing the rsa,namely ,MORE OF THAT verses NO MORE HEROS,i was amazed by the stats,i dont think ive ever come across 2 well fancied horses with such a big difference in stats before.

    totally negative for more of that and almost %100 positive for no more heros using atr,gaultstats etc

    if more of that had run recently like he was intended to(isle of scilly i think ,bazza was in ireland and they didnt want another jockey to ride him)i think he would of been a good stat choice ,but by not running since mid december, only having 2 runs,not taking in graded chases on the way,not moving up in trip and some other stats i cant remember,he is a really poor stat choice and is just about fav for this.

    no more heros for me

    1. Yep, I was on that side of fence, but bottled unloading at 5/2 (Jossies orders probably a better unloading job at 11/4 in Cross Country) – the ground is just tricky and you will need to travel and have some speed I think. Agree Jonjo’s is poor on stats, couple on my list inc no run in last 90 days and those running at Chelt LTO poor record – but, he had similar break before last year I think. I believe it is also a smaller field than usual and the tactical nature can make stats more irrelevant.

      I couldn’t get myself to a place/confidence needed to really lump on one of them, so left it. Ground an question for NMH – that is all it is, does that make his price short enough? undecided. Henderson’s horse’s form has been boosted today, by Jonjo’s winner – and given his form today maybe he is a worthy value play for fun money.

      Certainly wouldn’t put you off either of those at the top, maybe I will regret not betting 1 point on him at 5/2!

  5. My ones for tomorrow:
    1:30 A Toi Phil 0.5pt e/w
    2:10 Vyta Du Roc 0.5pt e/w
    2:50 Brother Tedd 0.625pt e/w, Politologue 0.5pt e/w, Rock the Kasbah 0.5pt e/w (Corals paying 6 places, would avoid any bookies paying less than 5)
    4:50 Diego Du Charmil 0.5pt e/w, Missy Tata 0.5pt e/w (365 only one paying 5 places)
    5:30 Augusta Kate 0.5pt e/w, Geordie Des Champs 0.125pt e/w

    1. Joint top-rated on my figures with Seeyouatmidnight but More Of That I may have under-rated but the interesting one for a price if still 8 runners, Shaneshill, who was a beaten favourite against Thistlecrack last April, his sire, King’s Theatre here:

      Sire W-R £1 stake 2m-2m1f 2m4f-2m6f 3m-3m2f 3m7f+
      Kings Theatre 32-231 -79 6-65 7-71 13-65 4-12

      18/s PP & 365, could be worth chancing?

  6. made the 2.50 out of politolouge and arbre de vie but your stat about LTO chase run and the fact you selected it gone for politolouge got 9/1 corals 6 places ew 2pts no winners Tuesday for me a n/r and a 3rd

    1. Stats are there to be broken, and if you like him I would have something on! Esp with Mullins record with 5/6yo etc,albeit not a great record in this race to date.

  7. Thomas Hobson 1.30 and Blacklion 2.10 are my choices for the early races but havent studied the later ones just yet. Would back both e/w.

  8. I have got very positive review about Waxies Dargle
    i also gamble in that race with Moore Ubak 40s lets see
    good bet can be 5:30 CHELTENHAM
    Westend Story BSP 19 now

  9. Away from Cheltenham I note Kerry Lee has taken on the formerly Nick Williams trained Alfie Spinner, winless in five seasons,.Will she be able to work the oracle and get him over the line first in the Midlands Grand National on Sat

  10. Just had a tip from the Racing Post & it’s not Paul Kealy, so it’s dodgy?

    (2.50 Cheltenham)

    A French-bred under the age of eight with fewer than ten starts over hurdles has won six of the last ten runnings of the Coral Cup, including each of the last three. Politologue looks a very likely candidate for success.

    1. Yep, a backing that type in this race,and that type from yard,has and will pay handsomely over time..let’s hope he can add to the pot today!

  11. EW Fun Bet?

    Of the top 5 racing post topspeed figs for 1.30 the highest by far ran on today’s ground (ggs?) was clocked by Welsh Shadow. There’s only one higher ran at the distance but

    Offspring of Robin Des Champs are 8/15 at course & distance, so 50/s now might look good in 12 hours time?

  12. Not sure what to say about yesterday Josh as I used your profiling to get Un Temps Pour Tout and surprised you didn’t have it as one of your selections. Think we are all guilty of over complicating and going against our own rules though!

    Nothing strong for me today so will go with your Coral Cup selections although have to agree with Gerry that the Yorkhill O O Seven form is really strong so will use these 2 with Yanworth and A To Phil in a combo Tricast for a bit of Fun!

    1. Well it was a poor day, but I’m used to that on day 1, and i get many more wrong than I get right. That’s how it goes. One day I will have a storming day 1!
      The profile worked for him but still left 10 or so – with different thinking, The Pipe Micro, then it was an easy bet! Indeed with the simple mindset of ‘if he gets anywhere near his hurdles form he could be well in’ would have done the trick. I went for one big priced one which I always like to look at, and both had more battle hardened/big field chase form. I had questions over his jumping and thought he may want it deeper. I clearly got him spectacularly wrong, next time! I will never second guess Pipe again with a qualifier/profile horse. Glad you were on, which is the purpose of the Guides.

      I think you are spot on there – can over complicate things and I have tried not to do that today!

      Good luck with the combo tricast, a great fun bet for that race!

  13. Our mini syndicate are recycling the 1750 we got back yesterday as follows:

    1.30 Yanworth £400 at 6/4
    2.10 No More Heroes £300 at 5/2
    2.50 Politologue £150 each way at 10/1
    3.30 Sprinter Sacre £200 each way at11/2
    4.10 Josies Orders £400 at 11/4
    Waiting on Josh for the 4.50

    Oh yes and a fiver each way for Josh on Waxies Dargle at 33/1. I will also make an additional donation if Politologue wins.

  14. These are what I’m backing using trends I came up with using HRB
    1.30 A Toi Phil (sky money back)
    2.50 One for Harry e/w (free bet) – Brother Ted e/w – Hunters Hoof e/w
    4.10 Ballyboker Bridge
    4.50 Pillard e/w – Ardamir e/w

    Good Luck everyone

  15. This is the day I was given two tips for at a preview evening
    1.30 Yanworth
    5.30 Ballyandy
    Time to get on with the studying now

  16. Have given the girlfriend No more heroes and Josies Orders as bankers in her lucky 15,Might have a spell of celibacy if they don’t oblige lol

  17. Anyone fancy a quick £500? 25p EW acca:

    Your Pick 6 Game Selections16/03/16
    1:30 Cheltenham Yorkhill 5/2
    2:10 Cheltenham Shaneshill 20/1
    2:50 Cheltenham Baron Alco 20/1
    3:30 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre 9/2
    3:55 Southwell Westwood Hoe 10/1
    4:10 Cheltenham Third Intention 20/1
    Odds: 1,961,016/1

  18. If anyone thinks Diego Du Charmil is good value in the 4.50 race then go and have a look at the result of the 6.00 race at Vichy on the 15th August 2015, an interesting little angle there!

  19. Hi Josh,

    I think I now know how you felt yesterday. I spotted the fact that NTD had twice as many winners at Sandown last weekend as the previous five years and told myself to mark up his runners this week (even mentioned it on NTF) but clearly that fell on deaf ears when it came to studying for this race.

    1. Yep, never a nice feeling is it!! – my stats/the ones I focused on only removed 2, and it looked a puzzle. Looks like (given excuses for top 2 – bleeding/tendon) soundest/toughest horse has won, which is usually the way in that race. Albeit – GB breds were 0/26,5 places in that – and given I would have looked to some ‘secondary’ stats, I dare say I would have crossed him out anyway! Game horse.
      my one line knocked out of the placepot though! Damn.

      1. At least I learned from my mistakes and managed to have a saver on Ballyandy (UL BTW). That along with a sneaky 0.25pt e/w on Any Currency 3 minutes before the off (only really because I didnt have a bet in the race and would have been sick if I hadnt and it won) made it for another good day. Maybe this spending five hours studying is the wrong way to go lol.

  20. Phil Smith should have given it another 10lbs still might not have stopped it!!
    Great analysis Josh but just hitting the post Waxis 6th I think hopefully the 4:50 will turn the meeting around

    Keep em Comin!!

    1. Incredible training performance, he was effectively 18lb higher than last run and I know he is lightly raced but some effort. 8/1 this morning looked short in that context. Never second guess Gordon Elliot – you can tell he had his education with the Pipes!! Agonising 6th place in a photo! (hopefully some bet with Coral but they wont touch my money for more than pennies) Stats profile shortlist of 6 had the winner, 4th and 6th, Brother ted not too far away either. We will get there!

    1. Phew I think is the expression! Very lucky, but you make your own luck in this game and having just watched again the two fallers were not ‘swinging’ – who knows. And I don’t really care – all this evens out over time, I will back plenty who are hacking up approaching the last who then fall. You take it!

  21. Well done Josh. First one of yours ive backed this week. Jumped in at right time.
    Not big stakes but nice to shout one home.

  22. Cheers Josh. Ironically I’d have preferred the runner-up as had the same stakes on at 28/1 (win only, of course)

    1. Ah well, I would say I feel your pain haha, but I needed that!! 🙂 I was done out of the last by a nose at 25s – got to love this sport!

  23. Wow!

    What about that sprinter ay!

    The place is still buzzing, lots of tears everywhere. You won’t top that. Long live the King! We missed your winner Josh, partying in the Centaur with the sprinter hordes. I am emotionally drained plus the drink.

  24. Well done Josh – 4:50 turned meeting around nicely

    Lucky race that one (Campeador may have spoiled the party but they are there to be jumped)

    Keep em Comin!!

    1. Indeed. Will take that, all evens out! As it did in the 5.30 – Battleford done by a nose at 25/1! Such is racing. Onto tomorrow. Needed it to lift spirits!

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