CHELTENHAM DAY 1: TIPS (COMPLETE)

 

BIG RACE PREVIEWS/TIPS 

All official tips are now finalised below. Today’s ‘Members Report’ with usual Micro Angles is at the bottom. 

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Summary 

Please use odds checker to get the best available prices/places…

2.50: Doing Fine Fell The Young Master 3rd / Theatre Guide Fell 

4.50: Southfield RoyaleUP (5th)

5.30: Domesday BookUP

Day 1 total: 0/5, 1 place = -5.5 points

***

Day 1 

2.50 

Doing Fine – 1 point EW – 33/1 (Skybet/Betfair Sports 5 places) (PP/WH/BFred 4 places) *

*price as of 15.35

The Young Master – 1 point win – 14/1 (general, PP money back fre bet if 2nd sp fav) 

Theatre Guide – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (general)*

*prices as of 17.06

An easy race in which to start our tipping adventure this week! 

My profile just about cuts the field in half for this, which helped to an extent. On the main stats/profile that I used, both Doing Fine and The Young Master tick the boxes. 

Doing Fine…A slightly left field pick but there is some method to my madness. This will only be his 8th chase start and I am going to assume that he is much better than this mark. He has plenty in hand. He may not show it in this race, but he will at some point. Last year he ran in the National Hunt Chase and ran a cracker. At first glance it doesn’t look much but he swept to the front as they approached home, 3 fences left to jump. He looked to have them all in trouble, but then the gas ran out. That was over 4 miles remember. So, he handles the track, a big chase field, and what is likely to be similar ground (although who really has a clue as to how it will ride! – looks set to be Good all over soon). 

Now, he was pulled up last time, but the stats for those are ok in this. He also ran more than 121 days ago, but they are 0/17, 6 places. 

The trainer is also a big tick now I think. A bit like Neil Mulholland she seems to be starting to develop a knack of successfully targeting horses at the Festival. Not before time she is also hitting some form – 16 runners in last 2 weeks, 3 winners, 8 have won or placed. She is 10/91 with all runners at the track which is also pretty good going. To my eyes it looks like the horse has been kept for this race, and kept for better ground maybe. In handicaps Curtis is 13/76, 29 places with all runners returning between 121-365 days. She can ready them if she wants. I also found it interesting that for some time there was no confirmed jockey booking…and then arrived that man David Mullins – I dont think she has booked him as a last resort. He is in the form of his life at the moment and there should not be any excuses on that front. She has done well when booking Irish jockeys on these shores. 

So, at 33s I thought he was wort a poke. He ticks the main profile boxes,is trained by a canny trainer who is hitting form here, and is developing a liking for Festival winners. The horse has ran over the course before, and if that race was 25f, he would have gone very close. He can put in the odd scrappy jump (a feature of nearly every runner in this race!) but with quite a bit of pace in this, hopefully he settles in mid division and sweeps past them all approaching the second last. Worth a chance to my eyes.An exciting outsider. (I would like to see money though) 

The Young Master is maybe more solid on chase form achieved. Indeed the only ‘chink’, possibly, is his jockey -which is a given now that his dad owns half (or more?) of the horse. His stats in graded races are outstanding though and he can ride, as we know. He is a Gold Cup winner after all. If he rides him like he did at Ascot then we will be fine. And, it is that run, two starts ago, that you can make a solid case here. That was a very good race, and he shapes as if he may also have a bit up his sleeve. He also ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, which has a decent record at producing winners of this race. (thanks to Gary Priestley over at Nag-Nag-Nag for that – I think, I spent most of this morning devouring all the free content on his and Ben Aitken’s blogs) On my stats, those with 15 or more runs in all handicaps have a poor record. He has a couple of flat handicap runs which push him over that threshold – but, if I was being strict on every stat that looks significant, we would be sitting this race out! Happy to take chance at 14s. I think he will devour that hill. 

He also has a bloody good trainer who has also hit red hot form – 6/25 in last two weeks. He is 4/16 with his chasers at the track as well – and we know what he did with The Druids Nephew in this race last year. The run LTO and the subsequent break indicate that this has been the plan – probably all season. His chase mark has hardly moved, which says everything to me. He has also won over CD. With a clear round and luck in running he won’t be far away, and if Noel was on he may be disputing favouritism. 

Theatre Guide...well what a grand horse. We backed him last time and to put it bluntly my heart (a lot more so than my head) just could not leave him here. And, well, if I can’t throw 1/2 point at a LTO winner for us, here at the Festival, then I have forgotten what this game is about. (pro bettors currently throwing things at their screens!) 🙂 (but then pro bettors have probably spent the day looking at Sedgefield)

He would be a stats buster of all stats-busters. Rating, chase runs, chase places being the main ones. BUT, he won with so much authority LTO that 10lb wouldn’t have stopped him. I can’t say he is well treated, but I reckon he could win from this mark. Now, his problem is that there could/should be others better treated, lurking. But, he will get quite a bit of pace to aim at here and is clearly in tip top shape. I think he is likely to place at worse, if he can get into a jumping rhythm. That race was strong LTO and I just couldn’t leave him. He could be the first stats buster of the meeting – there will be a few. (those with 18+ chases to their name are 0/60, 2 places in this race to date – told you he would be a stats buster!) 

PACE…I think there is quite a bit of it in here. I can count 9 or 10 who like to lead, have led, or are always up there pushing the pace. We should get at least 4 or 5 trying to take them alone. The Young Master can race handily but at Ascot he was held up in mid-division and I hope they do that here. Theatre Guide will race in mid division I suspect and I hope Doing Fine will also. 

The Opposition…

Well where to start – top of the market I suppose… those rated OR 150+ are 0/31, 3 places, those with 11-11 or more 0/12, 2 places. It is tough to win this from the top end.

Holywell – is short enough given his recent form and that of Jonjo. He has been hot and cold and is currently 0/14, 1 place in last 2 weeks, 2/37 in last 30 days. I want to ignore that but I am struggling! Today will be a key day in determining how to approach his over the next 3 days. The horse won this race two years ago but is 8lbs higher here. I think everyone is getting drawn into that Gold Cup 4th. He will like the ground, this is his time of year, and he has Festival form. So, i can see why you may like him. On balance, at those odds, I am happy for him to prove me wrong. 

Who the hell is betting on Out Sam at 7/1!? Who?? I would rather put the mortgage (I have no mortgage mind) on Vroum Vroum in the Mares at 11/10. Now, I am happy for him to prove me wrong. He could be the next wonder horse and have any amount up his sleeve. But please, he has bossed two 3 runner novice chases – and he wasn’t the most fluent in those. This will be unlike anything he has encountered before. He also raced at Newbury LTO which is far from a positive in this race, although another of those stats that is there to be broken. I can’t have him. At All. Happy to bathe in egg. Not at 7s. Please. Move on. (if he pings the first couple I will start cracking)

I had a good look at Indian Castle – you have to given his 5L 4th in this race last year. His rating is a bit lower and he could well run into the places again. But, I convinced myself he would find it hard to win. He is tricky and doesnt come here in the same form as last year. He was really poor LTO when fancied, in ground he should have liked. He has had a break and gets headgear. He is 33s though and just on that 4th place last year I couldn’t put you off. A lot worse bets in this race and I hope I don’t regret leaving him. A place would not shock me. A win would annoy me! Oh and he is also 19th in the HRB ratings – in handicap chases at last 5 festivals, those 19th or worse are 0/94, 10 places (others are Regal Encore/OMaonlai/Audacious Plan/Katenko/According To Trev) I did take some notice of that. 

Kruzhlinin – only had 1 run this season which is a big negative, and Hobbs will be trying to improve on his 0/10, 0 places stats in this race. On the other hand Richard Johnson has a great record when one of his is in the top 6 in market here (thanks to Ben Aitken for that nugget) Indeed all 7 of his festival wins started Top 6 in market. He also dictated a race LTO that I don’t think ended up being that strong. He should help push the pace – his jumping will be put under more pressure here. Band Of Blood ran under 15 days ago – those are 0/32, 2 places in this race to date. I am full of stats for why every horse can’t win this race ya ‘know!! 🙂 

Beg To Differ – well he has the Jonjo factor to overcome, and his jockey will be praying that he improves on his awful record at the Festival. I have watched his last race again (as I have done with a lot in here) when he beat our Loose Chips. That was a decent race but nothing more than that. His was sticky at a few jumps also and will need to step forward again, which he may do. I was happy to take him on- – He could be a chaser to follow in months/years ahead, but not today! (hopefully) The Pipe horse has been disappointing. He has yet to win a chase and has looked a weak finished. He has had everything go his way in his chases (able to dictate his own pace on the whole) and has still struggled. This looks like an afterthought rather than a plot, albeit he does qualify for my Pipe micro angle. (4/18, 10 places – if 20/1 or shorter SP). Maybe I am mad to try and second guess team Pipe. 

Those moving up by 4.5f or more from last run are 0/29, 2 places – that does for a few in here including Morning Assembly/Regal Encore I think. In any case, I don’t particularly like their chances. Nigel Twiston-Davies doesn’t like this race – 0/23, 2 places, and I am happy to take his on. Ignoring his own stats, I am happy to leave them based on recent form/jumping/profiles.

I am sure there are others I have missed out but you get the idea. I won’t be repeating a write up like this for every race, but given it is the only 3m+ handicap chase of the week I thought I would put the effort in. It has a strange feel to it this, with plenty out of form and most with one question or other to answer, plus plenty of unexposed ones. I don’t think there is an ‘obvious one’ and hence nothing would be a total shock (bar a couple right near bottom of market) The biggest question is whether Jonjo’s are all about to bounce into some kind of form. 

MICRO…trainer micro qualifiers in this from those systems in my guide are Pipe’s horse,WON both of Jonjo’s (if 14/1 or below SP) and Colin’s Theatre Guide. I won’t be touching either of the first three. When Jonjo has the 1-2, it will be a ‘oh that was obvious’ moment, but I just can’t. He is out of form, plain and simple, and I want to see some signs of life. If his yard was fine, these two should get competitive to an extent. 

***

***

4.50 

Southfield Royale – 1 point win – 8/1 (Boyle/PP/Lad/Coral/WH) *

*prices as of 18.03 

Applying my profile leaves a rather long list. Those with a top 2 finish LTO have the best record and that left Definitely Red (trainer 0/32,6 places at track), Local Show, Measure of My Dreams, Minella Rocco,Noble Endeavour,Southfield Royale,Vieux Lion Rouge,Vintage Vinnie. 

A lot of educated guesswork is required in this given that most are trying this kind of trip for the first time. Some will relish it, some won’t stay. It is hard to know with most until they try it. 

Southfield Royale – well the jockey booking has to catch the eye – she is 4/7, 5 places with all rides at track in last 730 days. She is the arguably the best jockey in the race – and in this kind of race that counts for something. We know about his trainer. He will be a Festival target trainer to follow for years to come I suspect. This has been the plan no doubt. The horse has decent form in the book and ‘looks like’ he will relish this test. He also looks really tough, genuine, and will try all day for you. He has been very consistent and we look sure to get a good run for our money. Whether he truly stays jumping the last couple who knows. Plenty of stamina in his blood. I thought 8s was decent enough all things considered. He looks the obvious one to be with to my eyes, and sometimes obvious is best. Horse that last ran at Kempton also have a decent record in this. 

Jonjo’s may storm to victory and there isn’t much between him and the selection. He has a decent record in this race, but I still can’t ignore his recent form. If he has had a good day up to this point then he may be saver material. There isn’t much I can say to put you off much in here if you like them. A few have ground questions, having never run on anything with Good in the title. 

There is loads of pace – I have never seen so much. Given most of these are going into the unknown they are not all going to go at it. I will trust Nina. Mid division and storming past them up the hill should do the trick. 

***

5.30 

Domesday Book – 0.5 points EW – 28/1 (SJ) 25/1 (SkyB/BV/WH)*

*price as of 19.52 

Not a race to go mad in and depending on how the day has gone, this may be an apt horse to back!! I picked it because of his name….. In all seriousness my profile, plus adding a Top 3 finish LTO leaves Aloomomo / Domesday Book / Jayo Time / Fourth Act / Five in A Row. 

This usually goes to a horse that is 20/1 or shorter so I hope the selection is nibbled at. He could be anything in this sphere, including not very good. He qualifies on a LTO ran at Leopardstown micro angle I think (stolen from Gavin’s blog) and has an interesting looking profile for his shrewd trainer. I think he will like the ground and looks sure to relish this step up in trip – doing something different! At the odds, given his place on the stats shortlist, I was happy to take a chance. 

Fourth Act would qualify (NO he wouldn’t, sorry, that looks at record outside of the Novice Handicap, which is this race) on my Tizzard Micro angle (very micro, 2/10, 3 places) but he looks a big exposed now and doesn’t look likely to have much in hand. Maybe Aloomomo is the obvious one but I wasnt screaming to lump on at 6s. He ticks plenty of boxes, but again I am not sure that he is coming here with plenty in hand. There could be something better treated. 

If Jonjo is having a good day his in here, at a price, would be interesting – albeit his record in races over 20f or shorter isn’t great at the Festival. If Morning Assembly runs well in an earlier race, his form is tied into that of Bridget’s Pet in here also. Something to note. 

Right, that’s it for tips. I have been as thorough as I can be. These races are all very tricky with more unexposed horses, as you would expect. That is what makes it hard, just so many where it is hard to judge their true ability. Hopefully we get a run for our money from all the above. Doing Fine will romp to victory to set us on our way! 🙂 

***

OTHER RACES (note of interest) 

Race 1 

Dont forget Sky Bet’s offer here (money back up to £25 if your horses loses first race of each day). Ladbrokes will also refund as free bet up to £25 if the fav wins first race of every day. 

Henderson’s record is a bit pants in this race so I may see if Skybet will let me have a muggy £5 on Silver Concorde, who should really like the ground if it has any good in it. Supasundae also looks interesting at a price – not sure how you play that. Use Sky or Ladbrokes, or play EW in the without fav market? 8/1 1/4 odds with Bet365. If Min wins that pays down to fourth. 

But, take that with a pinch of salt. I struggle with my fav race type every now and then, so not sure what I am doing spluttering on about these! Moving on…

Race 2 

Watch. Applaud. Enoy the spectacle. (I think that is the script) 

Race 4 

Blimey. Where to start. Get the pins out. No idea. I would like to see The New One win this. It is a poor renewal and this is his last chance. It would be a bit emotional if he won, along with Sprinter, Balthazar King and Cue Card. I may throw my inevitable £5 free bet from race 1 on him. Two races entertainment for a fiver, that will do. It would be some story if Lil Rokerfeller could run into a place, and I don’t see why that is impossible given the number of questions over all of them in here. 

Race 5 

Is that the kettle I can hear??…. 

***

Maybe Mullins will win with all four and I will be regretting now having a small multiple bet. But, I have one of those feelings that he isn’t getting day 1 all to himself. That may be nonsense. We shall see. 

***

CHELTENHAM MICRO ANGLES (from guide) 

No qualifiers not previously mentioned above.

***

DAILY MEMBERS REPORT 15/03/16

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Harry Fry Mares (10/1< a guide) 

4.10 Chelt: Bitofapuzzle DNQ / Desert Queen DNQ

Other 

K Lee Chasers (12/1<): 5.30 Chelt: Jayo Time DNQ

Tom George Chasers (any): 5.30 Chelt: Double Shuffle 3rd 12/1>8/1

(record of those returning after 60+ days off not great in this race,but stats there to be broken!) 

***

Right, I think that is enough for one day’s racing. Post complete.

Good Luck

Josh

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

53 Responses

  1. Definitely a few quid about for this one – Hopefully 50/1 will be available again in the morning – Hope it’s not a Segal punt!!

  2. Got to be honest Josh; I just can’t see the reasons why, one win at the trip at Ffos Llas and Trainer form is so consistently inconsistent, could not back with any confidence unless it is a completely contrarian view…..will be very interesting to read the write up!

    1. I was thinking that (no offence Josh), contrarian view, most winners of this have better Cheltenham previous than Doing Fine – I like Indian Castle & Theatre Guide

  3. FFS….FFS….FFS Claisse has just used the “w word”….”I do not rule out watering”….

    Why can’t the idiots just let nature prevail…. watering when the water table is at an historic high….barmy! certifiable….cretinous….

    1. Doesn’t matter how high the water table is mate. If connections of one single horse voice concerns that the ground is unsafe CoC has a duty of care to take all precautions necessary. First precaution for drying ground with dry forecast is watering. He is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. If it pours down and he’s watered ground quickly goes awful. If he doesn’t water and ground gets anywhere near Gd/fm and horse breaks neck or leg he’s liable for not taking precautions!

      1. horses get hurt in all kinds of ground, you seem to be suggesting no racing can ever take place on good ground, let nature tak it course IF firm is an issue then may be water but when I was at school sunny days and clear nights = dew….dew = millions of gallons of moisture…no need to water..or is Cheltenham effectively stopping any good ground horse winning!!!

        1. I know what you mean but NH do not want any firm in the going description whatsoever. The force that the horses hit the ground after a jump(and potentially jockeys) is what causes the most serious injuries. It will be led by trainer and owners CoC will do as he’s told and it’s the same up and down the country. Good to soft is plenty fast enough for the majority of horses and even trainers of horses that act on fast ground don’t want it for jump racing. Looking at the forecast I expect he’ll water very selectively as, as you mention heavy Dews will do the job in the main. Enjoy the sport if good to soft the best horses should still win.

  4. As I said in my garbled blog this morning the going when we had a walk on it seemed good to softish.. I also said then, but my typing on the iPhone was off, that my Mulholland contact said that Southfield Royale was in good order as was Shantou Village. We are in the pub in Gloucester at present. We are just about to go through the Geegeez reports and then the Racecards. We decided last night after a few beers to pool our resources on day one (there are four of us, me, my brother and my two ‘Irish’ cousins). I will blog our bets online at best odds guaranteed later before closing time! Looking forward to reading the detail Josh.

  5. im with andy on the 2.50 backed indian castle 33/1 ew ben aiteken narrowing the field likes it as well we will see tomorrow

  6. Yeah Indian Castle was definitely on my list along with the Young Master for the Ultima although it does using a portfolio approach is likely to mean I am going to have a silly number of bets in that race.

  7. Good write up Josh.

    We have made our selctions and are on.

    1.30 Silver Concorde 16/1 £100 each way – A Wels horse who has won at the meeting before, what is there not to like at the price.
    2.50 Kruzhlinin 10/1 £150 each way – Hobbs and Johnson!
    3.30 Identity Thief 15/2 £200 each way – We are going on last years run against Annie Power who will weaken then maybe shorten later.
    4.10 VVM – £500 win – Cant see it being beaten.
    4.50 Southfield Royale £150 each way – with Josh and the stable talk.
    5.30 Double Shuffle 10/1 £150 each way – coming to the boil and well positioned re stats.

    So between the four of us £2,000 or £500 each. I hope they pay me if they all lose?

    oh yes and a few quid on Doing Fine – additional donation to Josh if it wins or places.

    I wrote an article in the London racing Club mag a few months ago re serious punting and one of the tips was to not bet when drinking! I have not stuck to that this evening. More bets on course no doubt if the first couple provide funds.

    1. That is some serious punting there, Good Luck! And remembers, whatever happens, there is always tomorrow 🙂

  8. I really like Lil rockerfeller ew.Neil king hasn’t put him in here for nothing he had other options but has gone for this.Good ew bet and the young master.

    1. Agree, feels like the kind of race where he could get involved. See no reason why not – if he were trained by Hendo etc he wouldn’t be that price. Has done nothing wrong and could still be improving. Only one way to find out if he can mix it with them here, credit to connections for giving it a go.

      1. You would’ve made money last flat season backing all horses that were supplemented for big races- he’s 4th top rated on my figs so worth an EW look – has run a personal best last 3 runs, now just hoping he can turn tables with Camping ground over this shorter trip on better ground? Still get 40/s tho

  9. Hi Josh,

    Good write up as usual. I completely agree on Out Sam. Bonkers! Hope you dont mind posting mine up:

    Cheltenham 1:30 Tombstone 0.375pt e/w, Charbel 0.375pt e/w (Use PP for 4 places)
    Cheltenham 2:10 Douvan wins NO BET
    Cheltenham 2:50 The Young Master 0.75pt e/w, Indian Castle 0.5pt e/w, Un Temps Pour Tout 0.5pt e/w
    Cheltenham 3:30 Sempre De Medici 0.375pt e/w (Would advise The New One 1pt win on PP if I wasnt already on-20/1 looking rather nice about now)
    Cheltenham 4:10 Lily Waugh w/o VVM 0.5pt e/w
    Cheltenham 4:50 Local Show 0.625pt e/w, Southfield Royale 0.5pt e/w
    Cheltenham 5:30 Bouvreuil 0.625pt e/w, Aloomomo 0.5pt e/w

    On yours as well obviously so good luck us.

    1. Hi Nick, of course I don’t, good luck. Will probably end up convincing myself to have a dabble on Aloomomo, and the George horse, depending on how the day is going! Ah yes, 20/1 about TNO is good punting. I hope he wins. Of course, the first thing people will say is it was a weak race, he won’t win next year’s!! Missing the point. Ben P liked Local Show, he could be anything over that trip – I liked form of selection more but he is open to plenty of improvement, solid bet. I really hope Pipe doesnt win the 2.50!! Will have read that one wrong.

      1. I cant actually claim credit for him since was tipped up by my friend Neil Channing but yeah will be nice if it wins. Yeah was close between Aloomomo and the George horse but concerned about the long lay-off.

  10. Josh, good luck and thanks for all the hard work you’ve put in, really looking forward to the next 4 days——-win or lose
    hopefully we will have a winning week.

    1. Hope is one thing we always have in these parts! 🙂 it is one tough puzzle, confidence is high, well, you have to be!

  11. Just can leave a Kerry Lee horse unbacked,she has bucked all conventions,this year,have a feeling she will cap of a great season(especially for us) with a win at Cheltenham or Aintree so it will be come on jayo,top gamble and grey gold

  12. Interesting selections Josh, i had a look at the 2.50 and can’t get away from Beg To Differ I know what you are saying about Jonjo but he is the same every year will slot him in with your selections and hope for a tricast:~). I also think Vicente at the price has a chance in 4.50 , top rated with previous course form do well in this race but Nina surely has to win it this year. Have also backed Nicols Canyon in the CH and hope that Hendo bags the first two races, can’t have the Mullins horses far too short. Lets hope you have a good week to continue the good season so far.

  13. A great 4 days to come, will be there all 4 days so will probally be in need of liquid at the end.

    my day 1 shout MORNING ASSEMBLY 2.50
    best of luck to everyone and of course Josh’s tips i will be cheering home

  14. Made it over to Chelt. Although i’ll be stuck behind a Tote counter where i’ll be working for the duration, i hope to be roaring a few up the hill with you lot

    have a good day 1 everyone!

  15. Re Doing Fine, Curtis is 10 from 91 over the last 5 or 6 years at Cheltenham, but I don’t think she has ever won a Hcap Chase.

    1. I seem to remember Irish Cavalier winning the novice Handicap Chase at last year’s Festival on day 1 🙂 And in any case, he was 50s and then 33s – there will always be one question or another over a horse at those odds – hence why they are those odds – the trainer isnt the question though I don’t think.

      1. I liked your reasoning for Doing Fine & it would seem there is money for it but I had a look at last years 4 miler – below par renewal according to racing post analysis & it was run at ordinary/moderate pace so I am still unconvinced – oh ffffffffff n now Indian Castle a NR (just as well I put Theatre Guide on my C4 Pick 6

        1. Yep, take that point – this isn’t that strong a race either for me – and maybe why the OR trend gets broken, potentially. He is unexposed – i took that more as a positive for him running well at Festival/track – it wasn’t a handicap either etc. Anyway, he was 50s, then 33s, was happy to take the chance. Looks open. He is still in the ‘could be anything as a handicap chaser’ category. Suspect at some point more to come, and I hope it is today!

  16. Oh No! Clare Ubiquitous is presenting the Ch 4 Cheltenham programme.

    Sick looking at her and listening to her asking everyone what their emotions are.. Will turn the sound down when necessary.

    Anyway be lucky everyone.

    Off to put on the Placepot.

  17. After a 4th and a 5th in the first race (with the 11/1 shot beating the 22/1 shot by a head) that’s a little better.

    1. yep well done – I should have just stuck with the trainer micro angles!! 1st and 2nd from the 4 qualifiers. Could make a case just based on trainer – I thought he had been a bit of a weak finisher, and wasnt sure how he would cope with this test. Was one of few that didnt have a stats question. Ahhh missing a Pipe plot is annoying. Another who had yet to win a chase, some horse to do that here with such a big field etc. Young Master ran a fine race. Moving on.

      1. I actually had him before the micro angles but was an added boost (although stats seem to indicate Thursday is his day to shine normally). I couldn’t have had Jonjo’s horses but Pipe has been red hot lately. Its interesting how you had him in the February monthly trainer micros where as he did shit than but seems to have turned it around in March. Perhaps maybe its down to days before the festival when the yard comes to the boil. Definitely something to look into. BTW that Cleeve Hurdle stat keeps paying since it remains at 100% placed in festival chases.

        1. yep – well he was in the half of the field who fitted my profile also. That’s how it goes, yep Pipe firing now and prob best to assume that Jonjo’s are fine also after that run from Holywell. Pipes record with that angle now 5/19 last 5 years. Still irked, can and can’t believe he won like that as I now ponder it. Never mind, will wipe that from the mind. Not too much damage done, w had better pay more attention to micros.

    1. So did Native River to be fair. Personally I think Vicente makes too many mistakes but if he has a clear round he should be there or thereabouts.

      1. my top 4 – Vicente only one not entered in RSA?

        Native River RSA E’d Feb16 – XoM [0.50/lb coc] 7R Gr2 WW 3rd c st HU gd p 23dys 24s ‘RSA pos!’ Nby/Nov15 – 0.20q as h 175

        Vicente – crse & grnd figsXoM 6R C2 RO prm gd p 22dys trnr4R 25gs Chl CD2 +20 Imp’d ‘lose mstk’s 4 RSA?’ Nov15 – 173

        Local Show RSA E’d Feb16 – D* OTF > XoM 2nd c st J’ wl’ 4R C4 40dys 24s Kem 14/s Chl 4m’er ‘m Imp’d Jan16 – C3 h’cap WW fto as c 288dys 24s Nby ‘Progsv! Dec15 – Lightly raced – Oscar 3m+ Chaser! 171

        Pont Alexandre RSA E’d Feb16 – Lk’d Special as h – 170

  18. Not much to shout about so far at Cheltenham but the old reliables of Jefferson,Slack and Dalgliesh have made it a good one anyway

  19. Onwards and Upwards Josh – Tough day all round

    Beauvril in the last did me out of a nice profit for the day – Ballyalton !! My God

  20. Our outlay of £2000 returned £1750 with Mag and two places and so we feel lucky to have got off light. We were in the Guinness village when Annie Won The stand shook and the noise hurt your ears. It will stay with me forever. On to Wednesday!

    1. Good stuff Martin – yes I would have that down as not too bad a day, could have been carnage! 🙂 Indeed, onto day 2.

  21. Not a good day for me and its my own fault for ignoring my own HRB system which threw up Altior and Un Temps Pour Tout. Free bets were rubbish as I should have layed them off but thought better of it. Onwards and upwards for Day 2 and hopefully not too many more odds on shots winning races and killing the value.

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