BIG RACE PREVIEWS/TIPS
All official tips are now finalised below. Today’s ‘Members Report’ with usual Micro Angles is at the bottom.
Please use odds checker to get the best available prices/places…
2.50: Doing Fine Fell The Young Master 3rd / Theatre Guide Fell
4.50: Southfield Royale – UP (5th)
5.30: Domesday Book – UP
Day 1 total: 0/5, 1 place = -5.5 points
Doing Fine – 1 point EW – 33/1 (Skybet/Betfair Sports 5 places) (PP/WH/BFred 4 places) *
*price as of 15.35
The Young Master – 1 point win – 14/1 (general, PP money back fre bet if 2nd sp fav)
Theatre Guide – 1/2 point win – 16/1 (WH) 14/1 (general)*
*prices as of 17.06
An easy race in which to start our tipping adventure this week!
My profile just about cuts the field in half for this, which helped to an extent. On the main stats/profile that I used, both Doing Fine and The Young Master tick the boxes.
Doing Fine…A slightly left field pick but there is some method to my madness. This will only be his 8th chase start and I am going to assume that he is much better than this mark. He has plenty in hand. He may not show it in this race, but he will at some point. Last year he ran in the National Hunt Chase and ran a cracker. At first glance it doesn’t look much but he swept to the front as they approached home, 3 fences left to jump. He looked to have them all in trouble, but then the gas ran out. That was over 4 miles remember. So, he handles the track, a big chase field, and what is likely to be similar ground (although who really has a clue as to how it will ride! – looks set to be Good all over soon).
Now, he was pulled up last time, but the stats for those are ok in this. He also ran more than 121 days ago, but they are 0/17, 6 places.
The trainer is also a big tick now I think. A bit like Neil Mulholland she seems to be starting to develop a knack of successfully targeting horses at the Festival. Not before time she is also hitting some form – 16 runners in last 2 weeks, 3 winners, 8 have won or placed. She is 10/91 with all runners at the track which is also pretty good going. To my eyes it looks like the horse has been kept for this race, and kept for better ground maybe. In handicaps Curtis is 13/76, 29 places with all runners returning between 121-365 days. She can ready them if she wants. I also found it interesting that for some time there was no confirmed jockey booking…and then arrived that man David Mullins – I dont think she has booked him as a last resort. He is in the form of his life at the moment and there should not be any excuses on that front. She has done well when booking Irish jockeys on these shores.
So, at 33s I thought he was wort a poke. He ticks the main profile boxes,is trained by a canny trainer who is hitting form here, and is developing a liking for Festival winners. The horse has ran over the course before, and if that race was 25f, he would have gone very close. He can put in the odd scrappy jump (a feature of nearly every runner in this race!) but with quite a bit of pace in this, hopefully he settles in mid division and sweeps past them all approaching the second last. Worth a chance to my eyes.An exciting outsider. (I would like to see money though)
The Young Master is maybe more solid on chase form achieved. Indeed the only ‘chink’, possibly, is his jockey -which is a given now that his dad owns half (or more?) of the horse. His stats in graded races are outstanding though and he can ride, as we know. He is a Gold Cup winner after all. If he rides him like he did at Ascot then we will be fine. And, it is that run, two starts ago, that you can make a solid case here. That was a very good race, and he shapes as if he may also have a bit up his sleeve. He also ran in the Cleeve Hurdle, which has a decent record at producing winners of this race. (thanks to Gary Priestley over at Nag-Nag-Nag for that – I think, I spent most of this morning devouring all the free content on his and Ben Aitken’s blogs) On my stats, those with 15 or more runs in all handicaps have a poor record. He has a couple of flat handicap runs which push him over that threshold – but, if I was being strict on every stat that looks significant, we would be sitting this race out! Happy to take chance at 14s. I think he will devour that hill.
He also has a bloody good trainer who has also hit red hot form – 6/25 in last two weeks. He is 4/16 with his chasers at the track as well – and we know what he did with The Druids Nephew in this race last year. The run LTO and the subsequent break indicate that this has been the plan – probably all season. His chase mark has hardly moved, which says everything to me. He has also won over CD. With a clear round and luck in running he won’t be far away, and if Noel was on he may be disputing favouritism.
Theatre Guide...well what a grand horse. We backed him last time and to put it bluntly my heart (a lot more so than my head) just could not leave him here. And, well, if I can’t throw 1/2 point at a LTO winner for us, here at the Festival, then I have forgotten what this game is about. (pro bettors currently throwing things at their screens!) 🙂 (but then pro bettors have probably spent the day looking at Sedgefield)
He would be a stats buster of all stats-busters. Rating, chase runs, chase places being the main ones. BUT, he won with so much authority LTO that 10lb wouldn’t have stopped him. I can’t say he is well treated, but I reckon he could win from this mark. Now, his problem is that there could/should be others better treated, lurking. But, he will get quite a bit of pace to aim at here and is clearly in tip top shape. I think he is likely to place at worse, if he can get into a jumping rhythm. That race was strong LTO and I just couldn’t leave him. He could be the first stats buster of the meeting – there will be a few. (those with 18+ chases to their name are 0/60, 2 places in this race to date – told you he would be a stats buster!)
PACE…I think there is quite a bit of it in here. I can count 9 or 10 who like to lead, have led, or are always up there pushing the pace. We should get at least 4 or 5 trying to take them alone. The Young Master can race handily but at Ascot he was held up in mid-division and I hope they do that here. Theatre Guide will race in mid division I suspect and I hope Doing Fine will also.
Well where to start – top of the market I suppose… those rated OR 150+ are 0/31, 3 places, those with 11-11 or more 0/12, 2 places. It is tough to win this from the top end.
Holywell – is short enough given his recent form and that of Jonjo. He has been hot and cold and is currently 0/14, 1 place in last 2 weeks, 2/37 in last 30 days. I want to ignore that but I am struggling! Today will be a key day in determining how to approach his over the next 3 days. The horse won this race two years ago but is 8lbs higher here. I think everyone is getting drawn into that Gold Cup 4th. He will like the ground, this is his time of year, and he has Festival form. So, i can see why you may like him. On balance, at those odds, I am happy for him to prove me wrong.
Who the hell is betting on Out Sam at 7/1!? Who?? I would rather put the mortgage (I have no mortgage mind) on Vroum Vroum in the Mares at 11/10. Now, I am happy for him to prove me wrong. He could be the next wonder horse and have any amount up his sleeve. But please, he has bossed two 3 runner novice chases – and he wasn’t the most fluent in those. This will be unlike anything he has encountered before. He also raced at Newbury LTO which is far from a positive in this race, although another of those stats that is there to be broken. I can’t have him. At All. Happy to bathe in egg. Not at 7s. Please. Move on. (if he pings the first couple I will start cracking)
I had a good look at Indian Castle – you have to given his 5L 4th in this race last year. His rating is a bit lower and he could well run into the places again. But, I convinced myself he would find it hard to win. He is tricky and doesnt come here in the same form as last year. He was really poor LTO when fancied, in ground he should have liked. He has had a break and gets headgear. He is 33s though and just on that 4th place last year I couldn’t put you off. A lot worse bets in this race and I hope I don’t regret leaving him. A place would not shock me. A win would annoy me! Oh and he is also 19th in the HRB ratings – in handicap chases at last 5 festivals, those 19th or worse are 0/94, 10 places (others are Regal Encore/OMaonlai/Audacious Plan/Katenko/According To Trev) I did take some notice of that.
Kruzhlinin – only had 1 run this season which is a big negative, and Hobbs will be trying to improve on his 0/10, 0 places stats in this race. On the other hand Richard Johnson has a great record when one of his is in the top 6 in market here (thanks to Ben Aitken for that nugget) Indeed all 7 of his festival wins started Top 6 in market. He also dictated a race LTO that I don’t think ended up being that strong. He should help push the pace – his jumping will be put under more pressure here. Band Of Blood ran under 15 days ago – those are 0/32, 2 places in this race to date. I am full of stats for why every horse can’t win this race ya ‘know!! 🙂
Beg To Differ – well he has the Jonjo factor to overcome, and his jockey will be praying that he improves on his awful record at the Festival. I have watched his last race again (as I have done with a lot in here) when he beat our Loose Chips. That was a decent race but nothing more than that. His was sticky at a few jumps also and will need to step forward again, which he may do. I was happy to take him on- – He could be a chaser to follow in months/years ahead, but not today! (hopefully) The Pipe horse has been disappointing. He has yet to win a chase and has looked a weak finished. He has had everything go his way in his chases (able to dictate his own pace on the whole) and has still struggled. This looks like an afterthought rather than a plot, albeit he does qualify for my Pipe micro angle. (4/18, 10 places – if 20/1 or shorter SP). Maybe I am mad to try and second guess team Pipe.
Those moving up by 4.5f or more from last run are 0/29, 2 places – that does for a few in here including Morning Assembly/Regal Encore I think. In any case, I don’t particularly like their chances. Nigel Twiston-Davies doesn’t like this race – 0/23, 2 places, and I am happy to take his on. Ignoring his own stats, I am happy to leave them based on recent form/jumping/profiles.
I am sure there are others I have missed out but you get the idea. I won’t be repeating a write up like this for every race, but given it is the only 3m+ handicap chase of the week I thought I would put the effort in. It has a strange feel to it this, with plenty out of form and most with one question or other to answer, plus plenty of unexposed ones. I don’t think there is an ‘obvious one’ and hence nothing would be a total shock (bar a couple right near bottom of market) The biggest question is whether Jonjo’s are all about to bounce into some kind of form.
MICRO…trainer micro qualifiers in this from those systems in my guide are Pipe’s horse,WON both of Jonjo’s (if 14/1 or below SP) and Colin’s Theatre Guide. I won’t be touching either of the first three. When Jonjo has the 1-2, it will be a ‘oh that was obvious’ moment, but I just can’t. He is out of form, plain and simple, and I want to see some signs of life. If his yard was fine, these two should get competitive to an extent.
Southfield Royale – 1 point win – 8/1 (Boyle/PP/Lad/Coral/WH) *
*prices as of 18.03
Applying my profile leaves a rather long list. Those with a top 2 finish LTO have the best record and that left Definitely Red (trainer 0/32,6 places at track), Local Show, Measure of My Dreams, Minella Rocco,Noble Endeavour,Southfield Royale,Vieux Lion Rouge,Vintage Vinnie.
A lot of educated guesswork is required in this given that most are trying this kind of trip for the first time. Some will relish it, some won’t stay. It is hard to know with most until they try it.
Southfield Royale – well the jockey booking has to catch the eye – she is 4/7, 5 places with all rides at track in last 730 days. She is the arguably the best jockey in the race – and in this kind of race that counts for something. We know about his trainer. He will be a Festival target trainer to follow for years to come I suspect. This has been the plan no doubt. The horse has decent form in the book and ‘looks like’ he will relish this test. He also looks really tough, genuine, and will try all day for you. He has been very consistent and we look sure to get a good run for our money. Whether he truly stays jumping the last couple who knows. Plenty of stamina in his blood. I thought 8s was decent enough all things considered. He looks the obvious one to be with to my eyes, and sometimes obvious is best. Horse that last ran at Kempton also have a decent record in this.
Jonjo’s may storm to victory and there isn’t much between him and the selection. He has a decent record in this race, but I still can’t ignore his recent form. If he has had a good day up to this point then he may be saver material. There isn’t much I can say to put you off much in here if you like them. A few have ground questions, having never run on anything with Good in the title.
There is loads of pace – I have never seen so much. Given most of these are going into the unknown they are not all going to go at it. I will trust Nina. Mid division and storming past them up the hill should do the trick.
Domesday Book – 0.5 points EW – 28/1 (SJ) 25/1 (SkyB/BV/WH)*
*price as of 19.52
Not a race to go mad in and depending on how the day has gone, this may be an apt horse to back!! I picked it because of his name….. In all seriousness my profile, plus adding a Top 3 finish LTO leaves Aloomomo / Domesday Book / Jayo Time / Fourth Act / Five in A Row.
This usually goes to a horse that is 20/1 or shorter so I hope the selection is nibbled at. He could be anything in this sphere, including not very good. He qualifies on a LTO ran at Leopardstown micro angle I think (stolen from Gavin’s blog) and has an interesting looking profile for his shrewd trainer. I think he will like the ground and looks sure to relish this step up in trip – doing something different! At the odds, given his place on the stats shortlist, I was happy to take a chance.
Fourth Act would qualify (NO he wouldn’t, sorry, that looks at record outside of the Novice Handicap, which is this race) on my Tizzard Micro angle (very micro, 2/10, 3 places) but he looks a big exposed now and doesn’t look likely to have much in hand. Maybe Aloomomo is the obvious one but I wasnt screaming to lump on at 6s. He ticks plenty of boxes, but again I am not sure that he is coming here with plenty in hand. There could be something better treated.
If Jonjo is having a good day his in here, at a price, would be interesting – albeit his record in races over 20f or shorter isn’t great at the Festival. If Morning Assembly runs well in an earlier race, his form is tied into that of Bridget’s Pet in here also. Something to note.
Right, that’s it for tips. I have been as thorough as I can be. These races are all very tricky with more unexposed horses, as you would expect. That is what makes it hard, just so many where it is hard to judge their true ability. Hopefully we get a run for our money from all the above. Doing Fine will romp to victory to set us on our way! 🙂
OTHER RACES (note of interest)
Dont forget Sky Bet’s offer here (money back up to £25 if your horses loses first race of each day). Ladbrokes will also refund as free bet up to £25 if the fav wins first race of every day.
Henderson’s record is a bit pants in this race so I may see if Skybet will let me have a muggy £5 on Silver Concorde, who should really like the ground if it has any good in it. Supasundae also looks interesting at a price – not sure how you play that. Use Sky or Ladbrokes, or play EW in the without fav market? 8/1 1/4 odds with Bet365. If Min wins that pays down to fourth.
But, take that with a pinch of salt. I struggle with my fav race type every now and then, so not sure what I am doing spluttering on about these! Moving on…
Watch. Applaud. Enoy the spectacle. (I think that is the script)
Blimey. Where to start. Get the pins out. No idea. I would like to see The New One win this. It is a poor renewal and this is his last chance. It would be a bit emotional if he won, along with Sprinter, Balthazar King and Cue Card. I may throw my inevitable £5 free bet from race 1 on him. Two races entertainment for a fiver, that will do. It would be some story if Lil Rokerfeller could run into a place, and I don’t see why that is impossible given the number of questions over all of them in here.
Is that the kettle I can hear??….
Maybe Mullins will win with all four and I will be regretting now having a small multiple bet. But, I have one of those feelings that he isn’t getting day 1 all to himself. That may be nonsense. We shall see.
CHELTENHAM MICRO ANGLES (from guide)
No qualifiers not previously mentioned above.
DAILY MEMBERS REPORT 15/03/16
Harry Fry Mares (10/1< a guide)
4.10 Chelt: Bitofapuzzle DNQ / Desert Queen DNQ
K Lee Chasers (12/1<): 5.30 Chelt: Jayo Time DNQ
Tom George Chasers (any): 5.30 Chelt: Double Shuffle 3rd 12/1>8/1
(record of those returning after 60+ days off not great in this race,but stats there to be broken!)
Right, I think that is enough for one day’s racing. Post complete.