TIPS- Big Race Previews
Same Difference – 1 point win – 8/1 (BV/PP/WH/BetfB) 7/1 (general) UP
So Fine – 1 point win – 14/1 (general) UP
Being ‘unexposed’ seems to be a good pointer for this race, namely 5 or fewer chase wins, 3 or fewer handicap chase wins. That rough guide would leave four I believe, Pineau De Re, Masters Hill and the two selections. There have only been 8 renewals and some of the numbers are small – but those two look a decent enough guide. 10 year olds have also done best.
Same Difference – well this is just whether they can get him back to anywhere near his old chase form. He is very well handicapped and appears to relish decent ground – with some good in the description. You can write off his last run based on the length of time off and the going. That run 3 starts ago in 2014 would be good enough to get involved here I suspect. He has had another break – waiting for decent ground I suspect – and if he is ready to go should give us a run for our money. The trainer is in red hot form in the last 14 days and has a decent record at the track. At 8s I was happy to take a punt.
So Fine…well he is more of a punt and it may be clear after two fences that he has forgotten how to jump chase fences. But, he is 14s, he is in form, and he is unexposed in this sphere. He could be very well handicapped. All conditions should be fine and for me it is just how he jumps. If he is slick and fluent then he should be right in the mix here. It is a risky one, but ultimately his price drew me in and I couldn’t resist. I would like to think Hobbs has schooled him intensively for this. He is also in form – well I dont think he has ever been out of form this season. He is an interesting one.
You could make a case for a few in here and they all come here with something to prove. I will mention Pete The Feat having ran a cracker LTO and entered the tracker list, but is a bit exposed for this historically. I also dont think he will get an easy lead. If he repeats his last run he would have a chance. I wont go into detail on the rest as time is getting the better of me. If something else wins I will say why I didn’t like them!
Band of Blood – 1 point win – 8/1 (general) 9/1 (WH) UP
Having spent some time going through the trends for this race it has cut up somewhat and to n extent they are a bit irrelevant – there are also some small sample sizes that may be best ignored. Having said that, those carrying under 10-13 have done best, and with only two in that band here in this race, it will be interesting how they get on.
Band Of Blood – well he is near the bottom of the weights and at the prices he is the one I wanted to take a punt on. It isn’t the most confident of bets and is in part driven by a lack of faith in anything else, at the odds.
His best race for his last trainer came in the Irish National where he looked to lead at a decent enough pace in deep ground. He only emptied out there jumping the last couple where the petrol emptied pretty quickly. That run, along with a graded hurdle run over 24f some time ago, suggests that this trip may be ideal. It is an unknown but he is doing something different. He was well backed the last day on his first run for Newland but never really go involved. He jumped well but just looked outpaced/one paced against those 20f specialists. Given his National run that isnt that surprising. Maybe he is a horse without a trip but I was happy to have a go at 8s. He will definitely be spot on for this – race fit- and I suspect this is his main target, rather than having eyes on another prize and this being the stepping stone. This race is not packed with consistent front runners and it is tricky to know how it will be run – but, maybe they will try and get him out near the front, where maybe he is happiest.
I find myself guessing with most of the others and this softening ground may not be ideal for quite a few. A few in here are coming after long enough breaks also, which isnt something I like necessarily in big races. We backed The Last Samuri the last day at 7/1. He will appreciate this trip, but his best form has been on firmer ground, he has been off the track for 69 days and is being aimed at The Grand National – at 3s I was just about happy to take him on. Of course all the National horses can win as they please now the weights are out but there are enough niggles – the fact this could be falsely run is also a possibility and may not suit those that need a really strong gallop. Part of me wants me to see him win this well as he could be smart over staying trips. But, he isnt 7/1 today. Sego Success departed early LTO and that in effect makes it 80 odd days since he had a proper race. That may tell in the closing stages here, or not. He wants a real test so maybe they will try and make all, to use his stamina. He may find something with more gears near the end – the selection maybe! He is also half the price.
Drop Out Joe has a bit to prove after a break and given he won well on soft last time I am not sure why he has been off the track – a problem maybe. Or maybe kept for this. He got beat in this off 136 last year and carries 151 now. He jumped poorly that day and has clearly improved since, but he will need to step forward again from this mark. The Druids Nephew wont like the ground and again, being aimed at the GN, I don’t know if he will be straight enough to win this. He, like all of them in this, clearly have the ability to win. Just A Par looks to need much further and unless there is loads of pace I am sure he will get tapped for two. The break is also a concern as was his most recent form – albeit the trainer is going much better now. Ikorodu Road is now 13 and I would hope a younger horse takes this. His best chase form is on good ground, or ground with good in it and his two most recent wins have been at C3 level. He needs a few in here to underperform for me.
So, hopefully we get a good run for our money. If his last run was just a sign that all is not well, and not just a case of being outpaced, then he may struggle. But, at 8s happy to take the chance. They all have the odd question to answer in here so I want one at a decent price. Hopefully he can continue the trend of every renewal being won by a different trainer to date.
2.35 Donc: Bears Affair NR/ Sugar Baron (both 12/1<) WON 7/2>5/2
2.50 Newb: Saint Charles (12/1<) UP
2.50 Newb: Red Devil Star (20/1<) DNQ
3.30 Strat: Ballyvaughan WON 12/1>5/1 / Lord Ballim Fell (at last, when going to win,12/1)
4.35 Newb: Take A Break (12/1< ) DNQ
Tom George Chasers (any odds)
-4.35 Newb: Florida Calling UP
Saturday Trainer/Jockey Combo:
-2.00 Donc; Mountain King (14/1<) NR
-2.15 Newb: So Fine (14/1<) UP
Pam Sly Females:
-4.05 Strat Bonnets Vino (14/1<) BD
That is all for today.