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Nalim – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (Lad, not BOG) 6/1 (SB/BV/Coral)*
*my opinion,for what its worth,is that I would be surprised if he went off at bigger than 8/1. Lad let me have 1.5 points on at 8 (£30 for me, £20 per point). Price will be recorded at 6s if not more widely available at 8s. Prices as of 18.14 (01/03/16)
Despite being a 10yo this horse is lightly raced and looks like he could really relish this trip. Visually it doesnt look like he will be found wanting for stamina, although of course you never know until they try. He has ‘staying on’ second placed form at Carlisle over 26f at C4 level which would indicate this trip could be right up his street. He also likes to stay on at Towcester. He is also by Milan, a sire whose offspring in chases over 3m5f+ have a very good record. The trainer has only had 2 runners here but one did place. I also think the pace set up may suit him. There are a couple of front runners in here and a few who like to push the pace. Now, some of those jocks may end up riding their mounts to ensure they stay, and this frenetic pace may not transpire – but on recent runs it doesnt look like they will hang around. I expect Nalim to track the pace and hopefully pick up the pieces and outstay them all jumping the last couple. That’s the plan anyway! Finally, he has also won a chase, 1/10, 5 places, and is nothing but consistent. Ground is fine and he doesn’t have much weight on his back. Clearly on ratings he has plenty to find, but over this trip ratings can mean sod all – if you don’t stay, you don’t stay. I think 8/1, and 6/1 underestimates his chance.
What of the rest?
I like Son of Suzie and if he stays I think he is the most likely winner. But for a horse who has yet to win a chase, and who I am struggling to work out whether he wants a test like this, 5/2 felt short enough. If he were 8s he probably would have been a bet also. The way he has been campaigned suggests connections are unsure as to his best trip. On breeding he doesnt look like he will stay – but, I always use The Young Master – as the exception to the rule horse. I believe he is flat bred, out of 7f winners maybe?- but he stays 3m+ well over jumps. His last run, in testing conditions at a testing track, was poor, and I would have liked to see a stout staying on finish up that hill to suggest he wants 3m5f. He may relish it, I am guessing a bit, as I am with the selection, but one is 5/2 and the other is 6/1-8/1. I wont be shocked if wins, clearly.
Market Option – well I don’t really like when horses are switched between hurdles/chases regularly. In his 4 chases prior to his two hurdle runs, he unseated twice. His best form is also on Good so has a question over soft. On the plus side this is only his 11th chase start, the trainer has a great record in handicap chases here and so does the jockey. On balance though, at 4s, happy to leave alone. Gibbstown is 0/18. 3 places above UK C5, and he is actually a class dropper I am tracking – 4/11,6 places in C5 handicaps. He has also had 6 goes beyond 25f without much success yet. Milicent Silver is unexposed and yet to win a chase. He could well stay this trip – guessing a bit, but on only his 3rd chase start he is a bit too inexperienced for me – albeit, these fences are not the stiffest jumping test. 8s may allow a chance and is another who you cant fully dismiss – unexposed and trying a new trip.
Mansonien Las is a character. If he decides to put his best foot forward he may run well – albeit even when he runs his best he looks a C5 animal.Now 0/7, 3 places above C5 in handicaps. Not one to trust. The other three have plenty to prove for me on recent form, with well-being questions prominent. They arn’t getting any younger either and have all had plenty of racing. I would like to think there are too many unexposed ones in here for them to win.
So, Nalim rarely doesnt give his all which means we should get a run for our money. I think he will relish this test, and if he does, we could have some fun.
2.30 Bang – Bellator (12/1<)*
*system followers will have to trust me for now until I get post up. Hendo operates at 36% in march with all hurdlers, excluding his Cheltenham runners. In last 3 years been around 50%.
3.55 Winc – The Geegeez Geegee (12/1<) – good luck to syndicate members amongst the readership.
5.05 Winc – Royal Salute (12/1<) – apologies, missed this last night for some reason!
K Lee Chasers (12/1<) : 3.05 Bang – Mr Bachster
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nothing catches my eye.
That is all for ‘today’ on the horses front.
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