Members Report: 02/03/16 (COMPLETE+ Late update 2)

A quick reminder that the Daily Members Reports are completed by 10am at the latest on day of racing, Mon-Friday (11am weekends). You will know a post is ‘complete’ when you can read ‘COMPLETE’ in the blog tite. 

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TIPS

4.15 Bangor 

Nalim – 1.5 points win – 8/1 (Lad, not BOG) 6/1 (SB/BV/Coral)*

*my opinion,for what its worth,is that I would be surprised if he went off at bigger than 8/1. Lad let me have 1.5 points on at 8 (£30 for me, £20 per point). Price will be recorded at 6s if not more widely available at 8s. Prices as of 18.14 (01/03/16)

Despite being a 10yo this horse is lightly raced and looks like he could really relish this trip. Visually it doesnt look like he will be found wanting for stamina, although of course you never know until they try. He has ‘staying on’ second placed form at Carlisle over 26f at C4 level which would indicate this trip could be right up his street. He also likes to stay on at Towcester. He is also by Milan, a sire whose offspring in chases over 3m5f+ have a very good record. The trainer has only had 2 runners here but one did place. I also think the pace set up may suit him. There are a couple of front runners in here and a few who like to push the pace. Now, some of those jocks may end up riding their mounts to ensure they stay, and this frenetic pace may not transpire – but on recent runs it doesnt look like they will hang around. I expect Nalim to track the pace and hopefully pick up the pieces and outstay them all jumping the last couple. That’s the plan anyway! Finally, he has also won a chase, 1/10, 5 places, and is nothing but consistent. Ground is fine and he doesn’t have much weight on his back. Clearly on ratings he has plenty to find, but over this trip ratings can mean sod all – if you don’t stay, you don’t stay. I think 8/1, and 6/1 underestimates his chance. 

What of the rest? 

I like Son of Suzie and if he stays I think he is the most likely winner. But for a horse who has yet to win a chase, and who I am struggling to work out whether he wants a test like this, 5/2 felt short enough. If he were 8s he probably would have been a bet also. The way he has been campaigned suggests connections are unsure as to his best trip. On breeding he doesnt look like he will stay – but, I always use The Young Master – as the exception to the rule horse. I believe he is flat bred, out of 7f winners maybe?- but he stays 3m+ well over jumps. His last run, in testing conditions at a testing track, was poor, and I would have liked to see a stout staying on finish up that hill to suggest he wants 3m5f. He may relish it, I am guessing a bit, as I am with the selection, but one is 5/2 and the other is 6/1-8/1. I wont be shocked if wins, clearly. 

Market Option – well I don’t really like when horses are switched between hurdles/chases regularly. In his 4 chases prior to his two hurdle runs, he unseated twice. His best form is also on Good so has a question over soft. On the plus side this is only his 11th chase start, the trainer has a great record in handicap chases here and so does the jockey. On balance though, at 4s, happy to leave alone. Gibbstown is 0/18. 3 places above UK C5, and he is actually a class dropper I am tracking  – 4/11,6 places in C5 handicaps. He has also had 6 goes beyond 25f without much success yet. Milicent Silver is unexposed and yet to win a chase. He could well stay this trip – guessing a bit, but on only his 3rd chase start he is a bit too inexperienced for me – albeit, these fences are not the stiffest jumping test. 8s may allow a chance and is another who you cant fully dismiss – unexposed and trying a new trip. 

Mansonien Las is a character. If he decides to put his best foot forward he may run well – albeit even when he runs his best he looks a C5 animal.Now 0/7, 3 places above C5 in handicaps. Not one to trust. The other three have plenty to prove for me on recent form, with well-being questions prominent. They arn’t getting any younger either and have all had plenty of racing. I would like to think there are too many unexposed ones in here for them to win. 

So, Nalim rarely doesnt give his all which means we should get a run for our money. I think he will relish this test, and if he does, we could have some fun. 

Good Luck. 

 

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MICRO SYSTEMS 

MARCH Trainers

2.30 Bang – Bellator (12/1<)*

*system followers will have to trust me for now until I get post up. Hendo operates at 36% in march with all hurdlers, excluding his Cheltenham runners. In last 3 years been around 50%. 

Jumps Handicappers

3.55 Winc – The Geegeez Geegee (12/1<) – good luck to syndicate members amongst the readership. 

5.05 Winc – Royal Salute (12/1<) – apologies, missed this last night for some reason! 

Other 

K Lee Chasers (12/1<) : 3.05 Bang – Mr Bachster

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STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Nothing catches my eye. 

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That is all for ‘today’ on the horses front. 

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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

16 Responses

  1. I’ve yet to fully delve but Nalim and Milly Silver took my eye. I favour Milly because she won a 0-120 hurdle earlier and this is a 0-110 chase. This is her easiest chase chance therefore and she is bred to stay well. Jumping has been clumsy, but a slower run event here, reunited with Hatch and his claim may help with those obstacles.
    I’d really like 10/1 for her chance, so powder dry until the morn. I’d certainly want 8/1 Nalim as he seems a sure place prospect, less sure about the win, at first glance. I’m surprised that he’s not tried this far before. Best of luck with your bets.

  2. Cheers Josh as regards The Geegeez looks a difficult race tomorrow and trying blinkers too.Anyway i will be there cheering him on and Dragoon Guard has an entry at Taunton Thursday for his first hurdles race

    1. Yes does look a bit tricky for him, you all excited about Dragoon Guard? has he been going ok at home?

  3. Nice post josh down to 11/2 now.fancy golden investment 2-30 bangor. D.maccain 23percent strike rate over hurdles.+£41profit.

    1. Thanks Chinamick! 2.30 – maiden hurdles not a natural hunting ground for me unless I am following a micro angle – McCain certainly hitting decent form now and as you say good stats there, so plenty of positives. Good Luck.

  4. HI Josh,
    D. MacCain runners starting to hit form had 2 winners yesterday, did not bet yesterday especially with the change in the going now. Will send another donation next week.

    1. Hi Roy, yes he is isn’t he, definitely one to keep a close eye on. Your donations are always well received Roy, you send them as and when you please!

  5. Yes Josh really looking forward to Dragoon tomorrow even though a venture Into the Unknown regarding trip and hurdles.Hehas been schooling well at home,setting off to Wincanton now.

  6. Morning Josh.
    Off to Bangor today so will be cheering on the tip
    interesting that horse of hendo’s BELLATOR
    MacCain i don’t think will be leaving without a winner at his local course his horses just starting to hit form

  7. Hi Josh
    On Feb 2nd I donated £3 and on Feb 29th I donated £5
    So far I have not received any reply
    Have I sent these correctly
    Tony

    1. Hi Tony, many thanks for these. I assume they will have gone through and you should get a confirmation email from PayPal…there are no automated replies from me, or automatic emails, unless you sign up to a monthly option etc. I can see I received the £5 on 29th, so assume it is all fine. Many thanks as always for your continued support. Josh

  8. On the Donald McCain thread I’ve been checking out stats from Josh’s Cheltenham guide for the Kim Muir, Donald has a strike rate of 2/10 -3 places with his runners,this year he has two entered, I think you can discount Corrin Wood which leaves Subtle Grey of interest,ticks all the stat s boxes,high in the RP ratings for the race and still available at 25/1 NRNB.

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