Members Report: 28/02/16 (complete)

Well that was some relief as Theatre Guide romped to victory and he won as I hoped/imagined he might. Hennessy form is always worth keeping an eye on and it was about time he showed his true potential. He needs a strong pace to aim at and he must get into a rhythm – if he jumps the first two or three fine, you know you are in business. Hopefully the ‘capper doesn’t hammer him too much, but 10lb or so may not stop him. Another peach of a ride from Paddy Brennan. That was a very good race for me and there may be plenty in behind worth following. Always annoyed I never tip 2 point win when they bolt up like that, but there we go! 

The Eider was disappointing. RB never looked happy. It is really hard to leave alone a 20/1 winner for you next time out, and although that was part heart, there was plenty of head in the selection. Maybe it was the ground, not over his last run, who knows. Glensquest gave us a right good thrill and while nothing was going to beat that winner on the day, I thought he looked nailed on for a place at one stage! 

Losing runs like the last week will happen given my approach – well, any approach. November-18th Feb – were quite exceptional, and not the norm. There will be more runs like that, and there will be worse ones. I deal in profit and not winners. I will back one, maybe three, maybe more 20/1+ winners before the end of 2016 and they pay for a lot of losers! When you are generally playing in the 6/1 – 8/1 + range you will have bad losing runs. But, that is why you have to enjoy wins and horses like Theatre Guide. 

Still, we are doing much better than Mr Pricewise – he’s had 8 losing months in a row now I believe and following all of his tips would make you rather poor at the moment! 🙂 

A loss of around -0.75 points on the week – first losing week for some time! Still, its a lot better than it was looking at around 3.30! 

As an aside – is it me or do you get the feeling that it might be the Paul Nicholls show at Cheltenham – especially in the handicaps, and especially with his hurdlers. We shall see. Tizzard and maybe King may also grab some headlines with any luck. Hendo is also starting to kick into life and Jonjo is going to have some fun I suspect. Slowly but surely the big guns are being aimed squarely at those four days in March. 

Not much tomorrow…

 

TIPS

A day off today. No ‘tipping’ races of choice that I can see. A rest day. 

***

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb Trainer 

2.10 South – Buck Mulligan (10/1<) 

Jumps Handicappers 

4.50 Font – Ourmanmassini (12/1<) 

***

STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST

Well, Martin is off to Fontwell so I have found a few angles for there, plus one from Southwell. Remember these are not tips and in the case of those that follow I have not looked at the horse, nor the opposition. I will leave that to you! 

-5.20 Font – Reilly’s Minor – Trainer and Jockey are 6/13, 10 places when teaming up here. 

-Suzy Smith and Tom O’Brien are 3/8, 5 places at Fontwell. There is the micro selection above plus King Charlie in the 3.50 

5.10 Southwell – Stamp Your Feet – George/Brennan are 14/38, 20 places when teaming up in all races at the track. 

-Longsdon/Johnson are 4/11,7 places when teaming up at Fontwell – they have Wells De Lune in the 4.50 here. 

-Wadham/Aspell are 7/21, 12 places when teaming up in all races at Southwell. They have Road to Freedom in the 3.40 and Whispering Speed in the 4.40. 

They all have decent levels of profit over time and are performing way ahead of market expectations. Hopefully a few of them may run well, we shall see! 

***

That is all for ‘today’

***

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

25 Comments

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  • Many thanks Josh, much appreciated. I am in this evening after being out last night until the early hours. I have been through both cards but will go through again. I am expecting the going to be ok what with the frosts and cold winds we are having in the south??

    I have had a solid tip for Crank Em Up in the 5.20 and have got on at 9/4. In the 3.20 I like Adrien Du Pont at 4/1 and cant resist an old favourite Medinas at 20/1.

    A horse I have in my tracker as it ran well LTO is Bishopslough in the 2.30 at Leopardstown,

    I will have a go at the trend tips whilst on course.

    The Sunday roast Beef at Fontwell is good and so I will need to get there by 12.30 to avoid disappointment as it sells out.

    Good luck everybody.

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


    • Chris Gordon gave me a very nice winner at Warwick in Friday with Coolking, so I have had a few quid on For Two in the opener – each way saver at 7/1, down considerably in Class and I don’t think the Skelton horse is bomb proof with another hefty rise in mark…

      Ian 1 year ago Reply


  • I like your comment re Pricewise……yet Channel 4 promote him every Saturday as though he tips winners regularly!! Especially Tanya Stevenson

    Dave Jenks 1 year ago Reply


    • Indeed,they never publish his figures either which are shocking. Not sure why they still bother with him,very strange. Clearly he is badly out of form and needs some rest. But,there we go. Creates value for the rest of us who don’t follow him!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • He (Pricewise) has the advantage of a major indeed the major Industry newspaper behind him and as you say he is not “proofed”. Everything he tips he tips at odds that have vanished by the time of publication, one suspects the bookmakers get 3-4 hours advance notice.

        Not dis-similar to the usual suspects of “big” tipping services that advertise in the RP – some with huge whole page ad’s – which out of interest cost upwards of £1500 per day. They “proof” to the Racing Post, the Racing Post insist they proof to the Racing Post but steadfastly refuse to publish or evidence that proofing.

        They then bombard you with “won 20/1; won 16/1 etc…no doubt they did but what they don’t tell you is the 99% of proofed tips that have lost and the fact they are picking 4-5-6- horses in some races.

        Years of experience and losses have taught me never to trust the RP and its tipsters, apart from the odd nugget (Delamere’s analysis is quite informative). I had a friend who mapped every RP provider tip on a spreadsheet for a whole year (sad I know) but everyone made a huge loss including Segal!

        Personally, I have found this blog an absolute breath of fresh air, I do subscribe to a few subscription Tipsters, (don’t ask me who they are that is not the point of my comment nor fair to Josh as his blog is free and excellent) and the source of those was an independent proofing website called Racing Index which provides excellent informed analysis of over 300 tipsters, mostly very little known but a few of them very similar results to Josh. I follow a couple that regularly feature over a sustained period on their ratings.

        Interestingly, I have built a little model of Josh’s tips since 1 December and if he was on the Racing Index proofing he would be in the top 3 for December, top 2 for January and top 10 for February on “yield” which they call Profit on Turnover…I don’t trust anyone who does not proof or whose tips I know are reliable like this blogs clearly are.

        That’s how good and solid this blog is and thanks again Josh for the excellent and informed opinion.

        Ian 1 year ago Reply


        • I don’t by the RP very much these days but am surprised by the claims of the tipsters including the North Easterner who uses the word ethical in his handle.
          I know Josh from a past racing syndicate (and also his mentor) and put him as a genuine type. I agree with the breath of fresh air approach and can understand the disappointment when he misses an angle, e.g. The Betfair recently.
          I do like to try and pick my own and have subscribed to Raceform, Proform and Timeform in the past but they are a bit pricey for a small time player and I had variable success. If you stop winning using one approach you have to change tactics. I suspect Pricewise is stuck in an old mindset, as are the people who extol him.
          Nowadays I tend to use free stuff and get a composite opinion of many sources, including this blog.
          Keep up the good work Josh. John

          John 1 year ago Reply


          • Cheers Johns, good to hear from you on here. Hope you are well! You still involved in any of the Geegeez syndicates, or others? Hope they are going well. Yep, I am my own worst critic and the Betfair winner was one of the more easier 20/1 shots you could find. But, moved on from that now, just about!

            Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Well done with yesterday’s winner Josh. Regarding the run of Russe Blanc I have put it down to the going as it was likely very tacky which is the worst type of going for a punter, let alone the horse! He was never going well before the fall and probably was unable to handle the soil type there. Prior to his Warwick win, I also felt what he really likes is a stiff right handed track.

    Certain courses have unique ‘ground’ when it is testing, and I feel Newcastle is one of them. For example,if you look at the last three career runs of the high class Mayson trained by Richard Fahey, they were all run on Heavy going. Beaten fourteen lengths in a Group Three at Newcastle in June 2012, Won the Group One July Cup the following month by five lengths and Second, beaten in a photo in the Abbaye in October. The defeat at Newcastle, in my view, was down to the soil type being different to elsewhere and Mayson being unable to act on it.

    Richard Sutton 1 year ago Reply


    • Thanks Richard – yes I agree and that is a very valid point, often one that is overlooked actually. There are a few others I can think off – ‘Ffos Las Heavy’, and based on last two 3m+ chases at Exeter, there may be ‘Exeter Heavy’ – a very unique test given how those races finished. Newcastle clearly another to add into the list.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


      • This definitely ties in to a comment I was going to make pre-race and now makes even more sense given the result of the race: I tried to read into that intriguing stat that no previous Eider winner had run over Newcastle fences before.

        I reckon Newcastle may be the kind of track that requires a track specialist. A lot of those to have placed in the Eider having previously run a chase at Newc have gone on to post many more good Hcp chase runs there.

        So i guess it makes sense that Rocking Blues turned out to be that Newcastle specialist to break that trend

        Ali 1 year ago Reply


      • I nearly mentioned Ffos Las earlier. I do not bet there any more as it is impossible to fathom, the going is at best heavy all of the time. I decided that by utilising Patternform, I would concentrate on horses that had won, or run well there before on heavy going, thinking that they were going to have an advantage over the others that were unproven there. I still managed to end up with horses that were being shoved along from an early stage and out of contention or were being pulled up. No logic to me at all so best swerved in my view.

        Richard Sutton 1 year ago Reply


        • I agree , I have similar sentiments and my logical explanation is that it is so deep that horses basically bottom themselves out and need a lot longer to recuperate than most other tracks in heavy Going. The other view I have is that you basically have a “cartel” there of 6-8 regular Trainers whose horses tend to win in turn as a result of the bottoming out.

          I have a few other tracks where basically I just don’t have a punt due to very poor form/ history, they being Yarmouth on the Flat; Ayr on the Flat (racing every Monday drives me nuts in the summer); Windsor on a Monday night in the summer and Chelmsford AW.

          National Hunt wise I don’t think I have ever backed a winner at Bangor on Dee. totally flummoxes me!

          Ian 1 year ago Reply


          • Yes I agree, there is the potential for a bit of a carve up at Ffos Las shall we say. I have a few tracks that I leave alone including Windsor generally, but those Monday nights can be horrible. I find Bangor difficult too One suggestion I have for Chelmsford is to look out for Sires that do well at that course. The Polytrack surface there is different to the others at Kempton and Lingfield. I have been doing well recently by looking out for Progeny of Sires that have been successful there since it reopened in January 2015.

            Richard Sutton 1 year ago Reply


  • Can’t believe you have missed Mission Complete today Josh!!!!!
    I am leaving him alone today so here is a winner for everyone…….very strange he is sticking to the hurdles again but the 11/1 ive seen still can’t tempt me…………surely?! Southwell 4.40

    Tony 1 year ago Reply


    • Ah yes I have. I am not even going to look, albeit Jonjo hitting form now!…

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Ian

    Agree with you and hope you Bing a few bob Josh’s way as recompense for all the hard no honest work he does.

    Joe

    Joe 1 year ago Reply


    • Joe, I have an agreement to make a nice monthly subscription to Josh’s pot and hopefully everyone else who reads on here does the same.

      As for the guy who posted “more losers” or words to that effect last week, I would suggest he gets a referral to be checked over!

      Ian 1 year ago Reply


  • 200 Leo – Me got an Eyecatcher in Stowaway Shark, got a Figure of the meet from me last time & whose figs compare nicely with those that have already beaten, Space Cadet. This is a race where the favourite is 2 from 10 on previous runnings, so SS could be a fair EW play.

    320 Font – fascinating contest! The fact that Nicholls’ 4yo NR Adrien Du Pont was mixing it with my top 4 rated shows, what with yesterday’s winner, Zubayr & Connetable, what a strong hand for the Triumph he has all of a sudden?

    San Benedeto was an improver last time out & has best recent RP speed figs & the fact that he is so young to have joint top with Cheltenian, overall distance & going figs, suggests could be worth chancing EW along with Medinas whose stable boasts a better record in race than Nicholls, is my top rated & if he retains any ability could be staying on strongly at the finish.

    Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


    • I wonder if San Benedeto is being aimed at the Fred Winter? Step up in trip and a strong gallop would suit in my judgement.
      I think Medinas will need the race and a return to 3m.
      I’ve backed Melodic Rendezvous as this is his ideal trip now (I hope)

      Chris 1 year ago Reply


      • San Ben too old for Fred Winter bud, Juvenile h’cap –

        Stick that Jett in your Notebook – trouble with Irish racing, there’s always something else waiting to be unleashed but that a well bred horse who improved 17lb on rpr for hurdle debut.

        Paul Nicholls was on C4 & gave out a tip or his best hope of the festival, I thought it was in the Fred Winter (he looks to have a strong hand in that) but the one he mentioned not there, maybe the Martin Pipe, OMG! 158 entries, no wonder I don’t like looking till closer to the time? Quick history search & Qualando 12/s for the Martin Pipe & 25/s for the Coral Cup, that’s him but you know what trainer tips are like lol

        Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


  • I am at Fontwell and the ground seems soft but ok.

    I have written an article in the London racing Club mag due out soon re tipping services. I have some experience of these having been a semi pro punter for a while now. I know of two profitable tipsters from 20 sites I follow, plus Josh.

    Off for my Roast beef now.

    Martin Colwell 1 year ago Reply


  • Word on an eye-catcher: Roc D’apsis has gone into my tracker for his running-on 3rd in yesterday’s Betbright

    His previous win over 20f at the track had the look of a horse that would improve for an upping in trip, so I considered him for the Betbright but eventually ruled him out given that others would punish his slow jumping (another thing i was right about for once!!!)

    So anyway, that running-on third despite a poor round of jumping cannot be ignored. At a good enough price, he’ll surely carry my money when back over 3m

    Ali 1 year ago Reply


    • I had a nice each way touch on him and the fourth and have also put in trackers; I think both would have gone closer if it had been a bit softer as they probably got asked to go a yard faster than they have been before…both very promising types…

      Ian 1 year ago Reply


      • Quite. Wasn’t sure if would stay on breeding but ran as if he will,stayed on well. Jumping the issue at that pace/on that ground/that quality of race. Good point about impact of ground on jumping. In general they will be going quicker, and jumping more important. Makes analysis on that front a tad easier if you are confident of a strong pace etc.

        Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


        • It was the fourth BALLYKAN, that impressed me – this is the Racing Post Analysis:

          “Roc D´apsis, up 5lb for a win over 4f shorter at the course last time, made mistakes and still had a lot of running to do leaving the back, but he stayed on well in the straight to claim a place. This longer trip clearly suited and he could have finished second with a clearer round.

          Ballykan appreciated the return to better ground and ran an excellent race for a novice, especially when considering he was always up with the pace in a race run at a good gallop which suited the closers.”

          Andy Silvers 1 year ago Reply


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