Tips: 1/3 on day: +7.25 points
A frustrating day there. No Duffer ran really well, having halved in price – unfortunately bounced into one who returned to form – he was entitled to do that if he did, but that took some leap of faith. Maybe Leo Luna just has to get his own way out in front. No complaints. We got a good run for our money there. The one thing I didn’t expect from the two at Exeter were non completions – that must be strange old ground there – it looked good for Finish The Story turning in, top 3 for sure – and then the legs went. Had one of them managed to complete they would have paid for the day. But, they didn’t. Fourovakind clearly relished conditions – i wasn’t sure if he would – well backed 8/1>9/2.
Anyway, that’s racing and I will have many more days like that in the months ahead. That’s why you have to enjoy the good days, of which we have had more than our fair share since November time. This game isnt that easy.
2.50 Newc: Eider Chase
Russe Blanc – 2 points win – 8/1 (bet365/BV/PP) PU
Glenquest – 1 point EW – 33/1 (general) UP 5th (distance from 4th mind)
I just can’t get away from Russe Blanc here. He has a near perfect trends/stats profile for this (does fall down on number of handicap chase runs – but he did also fall down on a similar stat last time,which I overlooked) and I thought 6s was the best I could hope for, so will have plenty of the 8s I think. He travels well, he jumps brilliantly and he stays well. This is even further than last time but he finished his race so well last time, pulling away and finishing with plenty of zest. I though he could have gone round again! This race is nowhere near as deep as that one was. 10/15 winners came from the top three in the market. Those in the top 5 in the weights have an exceptional record. He owes us nothing but I can see him going really close here, if running his race. He may be even better over this far.
The doubts? well no-one really knows what the ground will be – under covers all week it may have dried out or be that horrible tacky surface. I would worry if it was on the good side – but it looks set to be soft, which is fine. He also has 1st more on his back – now, he can handle the absolute weight as a horse – some decent handicap chase runs/wins with same weight on back. No problem there, and an extra 1st last time would have made it a real battle last time – but still a massive gap back to the rest. That was a very good race. I think he should be fine – and there is a chance over this trip, and due to quality of field, they go a tad slower.
If it is clear he is in a rhythm early then he must go close in this. Everything looks in his favour and he could still be getting better over this kind of distance. If runs a shocker then I will know my inevitable cold spell is creeping up on me – and what a good time for that to happen! (not sure what decent racing is on in coming weeks, any ideas?!)
There isn’t much depth to this on paper and there may be one more at a bigger price. I couldn’t justify backing the other three around him in the market on what they have done to date. Horses that have races over fences at the track have a really poor record in this race. Ballyculla is also on the strict trends shortlist of 2. He may be the main danger but will need to step up and he didn’t look like a stout stayer at Cheltenham. Saver material maybe but I would rather be on RB of those near the top of the market.
Glenquest – well clearly a bit of a left field punt but he is interest. Yes he is 13 but boy does he have some good performances in the book. He ran a fine 3rd in last year’s Welsh Grand National and if he runs to that level of form, or indeed some of the decent big races in Ireland in seasons gone by, then we could have some fun here. I am struggling to see him winning, albeit clearly I think he has a small chance of that, but there is every possibility that he fills one of the other 3 places. At the odds, that is a decent return. He hasn’t done a lot this season, but then you can make excuses, esp for the last day. There is a chance that this has been the plan for quite some time. Peter Buchanan knows him well and was on board for that Welsh National run. This could just be the perfect race for him.
I also like the fact, like Russe Blanc, that he has never raced over fences here – both have’t raced here at all. Those that have raced once or more over fences here are now 0/88, 12 places – and there are quite a few in here that have. That stat will get broken one day no doubt but it caught my eye.
Well the Pipe horse is interesting and I will have a nibble as he is a system bet. Pipe hasn’t been doing much in these big Saturday races for some time (Ben Aitken did a great analysis in his weekly catch up post). I also cant for the life of me work out why Tom Scu isnt here. He is at Chepstow! Chepstow. Yes he rides Kings Palace there but the winner of this gets £53K – surely if he was really fancied he would be on him here. Maybe I am thinking too much into that. If you just look at the horse he could well be anything. He stayed well in hunter chases/ptps and he could relish this test – but it is a big step up from that last run,and he has enough to prove. But, not too much I could say to put you off. Bar Ballyculla and the selections I was struggling to make a case for much else. A few ran in this last year and didn’t do too much (bar winner who returns) and I can’t see any obvious reasons why they should now go onto win.
3.35 Kemp: BetBright Chase
Theatre Guide – 1 point EW – 9/1 (BetFred/BV/PP/BetB) WON 6/1
Evan Williams rescued a poor tipping day yesterday with a nice winner, well backed. It was about time one of those came to the rescue on a day when it looked like I had never looked at a horse race before 🙂
2.20 Newc – Heath Hunter (any odds) UP
2.50 Newc – Cork Citizen Fell / Lackamon PU/ Mysteree 4th 20/1 (all any odds)
3.45 Chep – Batavir 3rd 16/1>5/1 / Gevrey Chambertin UP / Kings Palace UP (all any odds)
4.35 Newc – Blackmount UP / Final Assault UP (both any odds)
2.50 Newc – Wyck Hill (14/1<) UP
4.35 Newc – Nautical Twilight (12/1<) Fell
4.45 Kemp – De Kerry Man (14/1<) UP
K Lee Chasers (12/1<): 4.20 Chep – Grey Gold 2nd 5/1
Saturday TJ combo(any odds):
-3.10 Chep – Ballyglasheen- Fell
-3.45 Chep – Allez Vic – UP
That’s all for today.