Weekly Diary: 15-21/02/16 (COMPLETE)

THIS WEEK…I take a look at the previous week’s results as usual, pose some questions about what I can improve for the future, take an in-depth look at Nicky Richard’s handicap hurdlers (+ micro angles) and look at a few eye-catchers. Hopefully plenty there for you to get stuck into.

Let’s get to it…

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RESULTS RE-CAP 

WEEKLY…

TIPS 

BRP: 0/2, 1 places = -2 

Other: 2/6, 4 places = +10.125

weekly total: 8 bets / 2 wins / 5 w|p / = +8.125 

MICRO SYSTEMS 

Feb: 1/11 = -3.25 

Jumps ‘Cappers: 1/4 = -1 

Other: 2/4 = +11.5

weekly total: 4/19 = +7.25

FEB TOTAL…

Tips: 23 bets / 6 wins / 11 w|P / +26.126 points

Micro Systems: 7/61 = -22.25 points

2016 TOTAL

Tips: 56 bets / 16 wins / 25 w|P / +114.625 points

Micro Systems: 16/107 = -14.25 points

Jumps Season Tips Running Total: +152.875 points

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WHERE CAN I IMPROVE? 

As we know, racing and race analysis is all about asking the right questions, not making hasty decisions and taking some time to have a good think! 

So, what could I do better this week, and for the future?…

1. If I rewind to Agrapart in the Betfair Hurdle…As reflected on at the time, that was lazy analysis. I pretty much dismissed him on one tentative stat, that was nothing to do with the horse! (record of claiming jocks) I wanted an easy way to reduce my shortlist of 11 even further. Lazy. I failed to consider all of the positives about the horse. So, well, that’s as bad as it gets when looking at any race really! Slap on the wrist there. I don’t say that in the context that I would have tipped him – but I didn’t give myself much of a chance.
2. Kerry Lee’s Haydock winner, Bishops Road, was also too quickly dismissed by me. I made a rash judgement about his stamina – ‘he hasnt run over this trip, I don’t know if he will stay, I am guessing – no’ That was the simplistic thought process. Even more so given he was a micro system qualifier, was in the stats profile shortlist of 3, and had a Grand National Entry.(also related to some point winners I think – doh!) He also had yet to prove he COULDN’T/WOULDN’T stay – he hadn’t tried. In the context of his price – 8/1 – and the opposition, that was one that got away. I make no apologies for backing Harry The Viking,no problems there – but maybe he should have been added also. For every race you must ask the question – Is the horse doing something different? Those that are deserve very close scrutiny – will they improve for this change. Usually this is a step up in trip, but can be a change/removal of headgear, a new track configuration,class, etc etc. This game is a constant battle between weighing up those that are doing something different/potentially progressive, against those that are proven in conditions….all in the context of price/odds. 
3. That final point leads me onto Emma Soda. I wanted a proven slogger at Haydock – but at Towcester earlier in the week I picked one who had distance to prove – I was thinking that he may improve for it. I did underestimate how testing it was – and if I had the ‘i want a proven slogger’ mindset, I would have had another winner in Emma Soda 6/1. What a torturous game this is on the mind sometimes!! But,that’s why we enjoy the puzzle so much. 
4. And Finally – my Sandown tips ran fine races during the week, and no problem with losing out to the Jonjo horse – who was unexposed. Now, I surmised that Sandown was a tough place to come for an inexperienced chaser, and at the prices, + a few more reasons, I was happy to take him on. I would take that type on again tomorrow. No problem there. But, there is a flip side to that thinking…what better place than Sandown to teach a horse how to jump at pace and compete! Maybe that is what Jonjo thought. He has now raced at Cheltenham and Sandown,stayed on his feet both times, jumping improving all the time. Clever training maybe!  Given I had pretty much narrowed it down to three, inc winner, and dismissed him on price grounds- maybe I should have thought more about the 20/1 forecast, Jonjo’s fav to beat my main tip into second.(and the tri-cast!) I am still unadventurous when it comes to punting, and playing different options based on my analysis. That is not the first time that has happened this season, and I have also picked the odd forecast from main bets (coming 1st and 2nd) One was 90/1 – I had nothing on that, although I know one of you did!

So, always something to learn, always areas to improve. I have no problem admitting when I get something wrong. It just makes me more determined to get it right in the future. One day I’ll have this game sussed!! 🙂 (none of us ever will, not fully of course!)

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TRAINER IN FOCUS: NICKY RICHARDS 

Below is another ‘over the shoulder’ video of me researching a few angles for Nicky Richards.

Rather hilariously, albeit predictably, my initial aim to record a 20 minute video didn’t come to fruition – this one is 54 minutes long! 🙂 But, that is how long it took and I was looking at him for the first time in that depth.

So, that video follows. It goes through the process I use when researching trainer angles. You can dip in and out, or watch the whole thing when you have a spare hour! I would like to think it flows quite well, but you can judge that.  If you like such approaches, do watch it with your notepad as there may be some things you spot that you wish to research further. I haven’t covered everything in the micro angles below. 

This video ends up focussing on his handicap hurdlers and I try and explain my thinking as I go through – and maybe spout the odd thought of interest – Of course there are his non-handicappers to look at, as well as his handicap chasers! But, I didn’t want to bore you to tears too much.

Below the video are a few of the micro angles I uncovered.

For now, make a cup of tea, grab a notepad and pen, and enjoy…

MICRO ANGLES

General Rules: –

• Nicky Richards
• Handicap Hurdlers
• 20/1 or shorter SP

MICRO 1

• General Rules
• Brian Harding
• Carlisle/Kelso/Haydock/Uttoxeter

38 bets / 16 wins /21 places / 42% WinSR / +51 SP / +58 BFSP / AE 1.96

MICRO 2

• General Rules
• Aged 4-8
• November + December

48 bets / 19 wins / 29 places / 40% WinSR / +58 SP / +72 BFSP / AE 1.78

MICRO 3

• General Rules
• Handicap Hurdle DEBUT

38 bets / 11 wins / 18 places / 29% WinSR / +33 SP / +38 BFSP / AE 1.84

• Those running over 2m4f or further do best…

22 bets / 9 wins / 11 places / 41% WinSR / +42 SP / +46 BFSP / AE 2.99

MICRO 4

• General Rules
• Aged 4-7
• Up 1 Class Only From Last Run (can include a move from Listed to G3)

54 bets / 16 wins / 25 places / 30% WinSR / +58 SP / +77 BFSP / AE 1.6

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HANDICAP CHASES

I didn’t go through these in the video – it was plenty long enough – but I have had a look and there is quite a simple little angle…

MICRO 5

• Handicap Chases
• Aged 5-7
• 18/1 or under SP (0/6, 0 places above this, those 10/1 and under very strong)

84 bets / 25 wins / 41 places / 30% WinSR / +54 SP / +72 BFSP / AE 1.52

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That is all for Mr Richards.

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EYE-CATCHERS 

Only 3 this week, (a few in last week’s diary were technically from the week just gone) plus some other observations…

Bishops Road – well being a long distance chase enthusiasts this one has to be taken seriously. Clearly he stayed. Clearly he relished the mud. Clearly he is going places over distances like this. He didn’t exactly finish ‘drunk’ when crossing the line. Boy can team Lee train, especially chasers. I don’t know if soft/heavy is a necessity, and in any case he hasnt run over a trip on better ground! Guessing 🙂 Whether he is a Grand National Horse I don’t know (my mind hasnt really turned to that yet), but I would be surprised if he is not at next season’s Welsh National! 

Broadway Buffalo – should also be noted, running well in second. He is a tricky customer and after a little break did fairly well here. He has ran well on good, the ground seemingly not bothering him whatever it is. He is still unexposed and could have more wins in him over this kind of trip. He needs coaxing – a Scottish National Type maybe, and it will be interesting if he turns up at Cheltenham. 

Beg To Differ – is the horse of Jonjo’s who beat my two at Sandown. He won this with plenty in hand to my eye. He traveled well to the pace and generally jumped well. Again he is another that looks likely to need some coaxing but is clearly very talented. He is with the right trainer for long distance chases (well if I had plenty of cash I would spread my chasing string between Jonjo, A King,V Williams,K Lee I think) and is an exciting horse for the future. All about his mind maybe. 

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The win of Sausalito Sunrise at the weekend made me cast my eye back to the Murphy Group Handicap Chase that he won on the 14th November. 

Since then, he has ran twice, winning at the weekend. Perfect Candidate/Rigadin De Beauchene/Le Reve/Sego Success/Soll have all come out of that and won since – most of them well beaten. 

Upswing of Jonjo’s came a gallant second that day, and he hasnt been seen since pulling up in the Welsh National. I suspect we may see him in better light on spring ground. His next chase start will be his 6th. Knockanrawley came 3rd that day but I believe he is out injured for the season. He could also be a very smart distance chaser if/when returning from injury. 

So, that looks like a strong race, and will be interesting to track next year’s renewal also. 

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Phew, I think that is all for this week. 

I hope that has given you plenty to get stuck into. There were a few micro angles/trainer jockey combos mentioned in comments during the week that I said I will look into. I will do, later in the week hopefully, but for now there is enough here for this post. 

Josh