AN Action Packed WEEKLY DIARY Post is now complete. Results re-cap/trainer in focus: Nicky Richards (inc video) /areas for me to improve/eye-catchers. Read/watch it all at the link below…
Enjoy.
***
I hope you had an enjoyable weekend.
If you missed ‘Your Sunday Read’,a new, football based article, then click the link below. This is a light-hearted read, with a splattering of fun footy punting pointers for the next week…
YOUR SUNDAY READ: PROFITING FROM MAN UNITED’S MISERY
I plan to have a ‘video morning’ today – looking at Nicky Richards as promised last week (or week before!) and through a few other suggestions that have been posted up. These should be up this afternoon. At some point I will do a ‘3m+Chase’ Special, its just a case of finding the right race and time etc to record it.
***
TIPS
No tips today.
3.05 looks a bit trappy and for tipping purposes happy to leave alone. Alto Des Mottes deserves his place at the top of the market after that gutsy run LTO – as I observed at the time that was a really tough race for a 6yo, and at today’s price I would just want to watch and see if he is over it. He was out on his feet near the end of that and while he has had a decent break it is hard to know if it has left its mark. Of course, he could just stroll in!
There are also the two micro systems bets below. Lucinda Russell is now 0/22, 1 place in the last 14 days so there are some serious questions about the form of her string. Friendly Royal just never looked happy LTO – maybe going too quickly for him. His running style and breeding suggests this step up could really suit – as will the more sedate pace, which should help him get into a rhythm. Smith is in form – 2/10, 7 places last two weeks. Only his 7th chase start . Do what you will with all that info. Russell will bounce into form at some point, and her one is also unexposed.
MICRO SYSTEMS
Feb Trainers
3.05 Carlisle- Friendly Royal / UP One For Arthur 2nd 5/1
4.10 Carlisle – Swing Hard WON 2/1>5/4
STATS/ANGLES OF INTEREST
Nope, nothing catching the eye today.
***
That is all for today.
***
IMPORTANT: Well, I say important. Just to say I will be asking some friends to help promote my Cheltenham Guide in the coming days/weeks – mainly, to be blunt, to help me grow my readership/email list, while making said friends some commission from the guide etc.
Anyway, what that means for the ‘Donations Club’ is that I will be withdrawing the Cheltenham Guide as part of that offer, so not to confuse things for new readers, and those that may end up buying the guide outright via a promotion from someone else. This will be withdrawn this week sometime. So, if you are sitting on the fence about signing up to a weekly/monthly option below, now is the time to give it a go, and get your complimentary Cheltenham stats pack (worth £17+ VAT)
In fairness, I think all of you who wish to sign up to one of those options have done so already – but, that is the state of play. Post Cheltenham there will be other guides sent to the ‘Donations Club’ members as and when, either complimentary (that I would otherwise charge for) or exclusively for them.
So, those options are below. Remember, this is all on your terms and you can stop at any point! (oh and if you really can’t stand PayPal, but wish to donate regularly, you can send me an email and we can discuss other options)
You Can Join My Weekly/Monthly DONATIONS CLUB below (and get your complimentary Cheltenham Guide)
***
12 Responses
Agree entirely with what you have said about the 3.05 Josh, I think also Alto Des Mottes is not as good based on form figures going right handed and maybe prefers flatter tracks too and that is some hill at Carlisle, I spose you could conject Sue Smith has a nice form line with hers trough Lackammon but hers needs to step up in trip and Carlisle is again not a track conducive to that, one that is very very well handicapped imho is Barafundle but I can’t be tempted to have anything more than a couple of quid on it, but I have a hunch no proof that the Candlish horses do tend to reserve their best form for stiff tracks (not sure if you have any corroborative evidence on that?). I’d also like to see Warrantor jump a clear round b4 backing him again!
Yep, Barafundle has an interesting profile, but he is horrendously out of form- maybe the switch back to fences and headgear will do the trick and I can see why some would be tempted at that price. He is unexposed over fences for his age too. Candlish – well Bashford Ben certainly likes it at the track, and I think he is responsible for 3 of her 6 wins here since 2009.
Have just looked at her for you – I can look at ‘Surface’ – Flat/Slight Undulations/Undulating/Very Undulating – nothing in it at all across all handicaps. and then just handicap chases. Nothing there, I wont repeat all the figures!
Stable has a long term record of profit on heavy going and horse has been second twice at this track.
I had the word re Warrantor LTO but it went at the first. If they were right I think it has to win today if it jumps round?
I follow some stables and Charlie Fellowes is one of them. Carolinae goes very well at home but has not done anything on the course yet. I got on each way yesterday at 28/1 for the 3.15 at Wolves today and it is now at 8/1 best. I guess they think that it can transfer his home form to the track today? We shall see.
I am a member of the London Racing Club and write some articles for them in their magazine. I will try to push the Cheltenham Guide with them without treading on sponsors toes.
Dont know what to think of Warrantor – that was a weak race he won at Lingfield and while he is unexposed I wouldnt want to be diving in at that price, personally. Young jock on as well, as if to say this may be his ‘learning horse’ – not sure. Has the unexposed profile to warrant respect, but he wasnt under much pressure when falling LTO and would worry about those frailties also – in context of his price.
Who did you ‘have the word’ from?? No doubt he jumped like a buck, was schooling impressively and was the best jumper they had ever seen! 🙂 If the word is direct from the trainers mouth,(or maybe owner,via trainer) I will take some note. Everyone else, generally, doesnt have a ffffing clue – in my humble opinion – although that is based on spending some time in Newmarket pubs with the odd stable lad etc – my opinion is that those at a yard may know what they have – but they have no clue as to what they are coming up against – I would back myself, and every reader on this blog, to be better at race/form analysis than most connected with yards!
Oh, and thanks for any discrete pushing of the guide – albeit I am sure that would tread on plenty of people’s toes! Although it may make the odd preview panel member really stand out! 🙂
I try to make money at the lower grade tracks as the standard is lower and so easier to win a race in theory. I foolow some trainers who may have a winner at such tracks at a price. So such as Mr Fellowes or Alex Dunn etc. You can find out a fair bit with a weekly look at their websites/blogs.
I know an owner (part of a syndicate really) with Mr Greatrex but agree that these type of tips are hit and miss.
We shall see.
I know Lee Mottershead via the London Racing Club to talk to and so will mention your guide/site to him.
Yep agree – and generally the more information you can get the better, as long as you try and interpret it.
Stable whispers (not from trainers/owners) and constant talk of the sport being corrupt/bent are two of my pet hates, if you could tell haha.
Agree about trainer websites/blogs, I really do need to get a proper list and get in habit of reading them regularly. You can find out a fair bit of useful stuff.
Oh, he may well run a cracker, backed is if he will, but I personally couldnt touch him at that price I don’t think. Good Luck if you are on him – I always cheers the readers picks, once mine have fallen out the back of the tv! 🙂
Matt Bisogno of Geegeez is a London Racing Club members, send my regards if you talk to him also!
Trainers websites are a mix really, I have tried over the years to collate a list like you are considering, two major problems are the time and also the fact that if you look closely 75% are updated after the event and very few are actually giving much away although I agree with Martin that one or two of the smaller ones do.
I tried a dedicated website; and subscribed for a while to get quotes from Trainers, it came from a reputable guy; but what I found is that on some days you’d get quotes from 20 trainers about 40 horses, most of which were frankly piffle and then along came the “we’ve had a 20/1 winner / 16/1 winner hype, the reality is that if you’d have backed each one at level stakes you’d lose apart from the odd day when someone like Gary Moore; knocks in 5 winner in a day; but I’d argue that the type of punter doing accies would not need to be told to back certain trainers horses any way they just do it.
As for triers and no triers in handicaps and the “gossip” around them, I think most people on here who seem very sensible and knowledgeable will by now know what to look for, what to avoid and which trainers to keep a close eye on, both positively and negatively.
in case anybody is interested in what the trainer thinks about Warrantor
it is cut and pasted below
Warrantor put up a career best effort when braking his duck over fences two starts ago at Lingfield, he was very professional with his jumping and showed a great will to win finding plenty for pressure up the straight in tough conditions. Unfortunately he fell at the first when sent up to Catterick last Monday, so hopefully he has a clear round today and if doing so he should have a great chance to win this. He’s on a winnable mark and all being well will be worth the trip up North today.
Didn’t read blog until now but backed Courtown Oscar last night as trainer had good record and horse was effective at going,was difficult race to gauge apart from that
Way back in the 90’s when I lived in UK,had a friend who lived in Newmarket,he told me that the the town had the most profitable betting shops in the UK,wonder why that was!
haha quite. That would not surprise me one bit!