No complaints at Sandown. Both selections ran their race, with LC running with his heart on his sleeve. He got his easy lead, was able to go his own pace and jumped well on the whole. He just bumped into one – a horse to keep an eye on as he is only going to go one way. He was worth taking on due to his price alone, but he received a good ride from Dickie who was wary not to hold him up too far off the pace. The visor worked and Jonjo is just starting to fire – slowly but surely his string is coming to life. Looks like he has a decent staying chaser on his hands here. Given the way he won, I don’t think there was much LC could do. Veteran’s chases for him maybe at some point in the future.
(I should add, Paddy Power were money back free bet in that race, if second to SP Fav. I spotted that late and my bets were not with them. Clearly that offer is always worth a look and I hope some of you were on with them)
Still, we take around +10 points into tomorrow, depending on what price you got on ‘Straidi’ earlier in the week.
The only qualifier for the micros won as well, at 11/2>9/2. Hopefully that may have paid for the losing tips, and left some Friday beer money! (albeit the systems for 2016 needed it!)
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3.15 Haydock
Isaacstown Lad – 1 point win – 14/1 (PP) -10/1 (general) 3rd 9/1 Sp
Read My Thoughts Over At Daily Punt HERE>>
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2.40 Haydock
Harry The Viking – 1 point win – 10/1 -PU 7/1
I am going to have one last go on this old boy. Plodder of all plodders. I just couldnt turn down 10/1 and if he stayed on dourly to win this at those odds I would feel a bit sick. He falls down on some of the trends, but then did so on the same ones in last season’s renewal of this race, where he only lost by a head. He could well be an EW banker but with only 3 places, and at only 1/5s off odds I thought I would just stick to win only. I doubt he will be too far away.
Unlike most horses in here, he looks like he may have been aimed at this race. The 53 break is intriguing – suggesting this has been the target, which given how he ran in this race last year, is no surprise. The other positive is the trainer’s form. Last 30 days – 10 runners, 2 winners and a further 5 places. Hopefully that form rubs off on him. I don’t think he lacks resolution, he is just very slow and one paced. But, in these conditions, that may be enough. Anyway, at 10s, I couldnt say no for 1 point. Whatever happens we have had a +8 point week, and I would take that everytime.
I also like him because there are 3/4 who normally like to get on with it in here. That could well help him if the pace collapses. Albeit, given how testing the ground is maybe they will all take it a bit easy up front. We should get a run for our money from him.
Solid ‘trends profile’ fits are Mountainous/Bishops Road/RDB. The middle of those three has major stamina questions – guessing a bit – and I don’t want to be doing that in this race. I wouldn’t be shocked if one of the others wins. But, Mountainous has nearly 1 stone more on his back than the last day, is up 10lbs and did have a hard race LTO. He will stay and relish the ground and maybe I will be annoyed I didnt go with him at 4s/5s, but I dont find myself having the urge to ‘lump on’. This small field race will be very different from the Welsh National challenge and that was his Gold Cup, what his whole season had been planned around. Likewise this isnt a target race for RDB and he isnt getting any younger. But, as a previous winner, we know race conditions are fine and he does like it here. He will give it a good go but has had a hard enough season.
In all honestly you could make a small case for most in here and I dont have the energy to go through them all. (on the blog that is, I have obviously ‘been through’ them all!) For one reason or another I am happy to take them on.
This isn’t the most confident of bets but we should get a run for our money and it is definitely an odds bet, like they all are, but this one even more so. Come on The Viking!
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That is it for Tips.
I did have a look at the 3.35 Ascot and I decided to sit it out for tipping purposes- hard to be dogmatic in this one. It looks a bit trappy with most having some kind of question to answer. It is also a bit of guess work as to whether this is a prep for some of them and clearly some connections wont want to bottom their horses out here. Having said all that I think SC may take all the beating. He is missing Cheltenham I believe and suspect he will be spot on for this. The blinkers should help. If he ran to his best, nothing in here would live with him. I cant work out if he is short enough or if 3/1 or so is a decent price. He does have something to prove now, but then they all do. And his stable appears to be firing again. Maybe a muggy interest bet! 🙂
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MICRO SYSTEMS
Feb Trainers
2.40 Hayd: Cloudy Too (any odds) PU
3.00 Asc: Fingertips (any odds) UP
3.15 Hayd: Taj Badalandabad (any) UP
3.50 Hayd: Throthethatch (any) UP
Other
K Lee Chasers: 2.40 Hayd: Bishops Road/ WON Mountainous PU
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Right, that will be all for today.
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Just in case you missed the Alan King Cheltenham angle…
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CHELTENHAM: ALAN KING
A quick micro for ‘the maestro’ that is Alan King. He is not in the guide as I only included those with 2 or more wins in the ‘trainer profiles’ section.
Anyway, one of you, Anthony has made a few ‘Cheltenham Handicap’ related comments and also sent me an email about his place record with certain runners. So, I got digging..
(last 5 festivals)
Handicap Chases: 1/20, 2 places
Non-Handicap Hurdles: 0/23, 4 places
Non-Handicap Chases: 2/15, 6 places (they are clearly worth keeping a close eye on – go on Smad!- dreaming there maybe!)
HANDICAP HURDLES: 1/20, 8 places…
It is the place record which catches the eye…
A few general pointers before ‘the angle’
- In the Fred Winter: 6 runners, 3 places (no runner last two seasons)
- French Breds: 1/6, 3 places
- Up more than 1f in trip from last run: 0/4, 0 places
- Placed LTO: 1/12, 6 places. 0/8, 2 places did not
- Days Rest:
- 16-20 days: 0/5, 3 places
- 21-30 days: 0/8, 0 places
- 31-45 days: 1/6, 4 places
So, if you looked at his handicap hurdlers, Did Not run 16-20 days ago, NOT moving up in trip by more than 1 furlong...
That leaves 10 bets / 1 win / 8 w|places (all of his placed runners)
A formline of…
13, 3 (16/1), 2 (33/1), 13,13,3 (3/1), 13, 2 (14/1), 1 (33/1), 7, 13, 3 (20/1)
So, that is something to keep an eye on.
The rest pattern is interesting given form of those either side of it. It could be the tracks they run at in that 21-30 day period, or the races not being good preps for the Festival. I don’t really know, and it could just be luck/random But, it’s worth keeping an eye on.
That’s all on him.
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11 Responses
Got the 14/1 on Paddy. Someone was telling me that Ma Filleule is coming back to form. Do you think that it has much chance in the 3.35 at Ascot tomorrow or this may be a prep race for Cheltenham?
Yep that looks a puzzle of a race and not one I have much view on in truth. Most have something to prove. You wouldnt want to bottom a horse on that ground if you are targetting it at something. I do think SC will be spot on for this. He is being aimed at Aintree (bowl or National) and given weights are out etc, I think he will be there to win this. Not sure if you can say that over many others. Albeit, have to overlook that last laboured run – 10/3 may be ok. But , that is from a 30 second glance! I wont be playing in it.
Good Luck with both of your tips today, I notice the Going Stick at Haydock is around the 3 mark, that’s about the same as sticking it in the Irish Sea surely, and that backs up I believe your logic of looking at proven Course form in heavy Going….fingers crossed
A couple of ideas:-
150A Minella Rocco moves to a stamina trip, away from Cheltenham (unsuitable?), acts on heavy going and this well regarded chasing prospect may overcome its last two failures @ 14/1 PP and others
205H Silsol is sure to cope with the ground, no matter how much boggier it gets, assuming they race. He returns to hurdling with his merry mate Jack Sherwood in the plate and they could grind the rest into the dirt. 13/2 with PP seemed generous to me.
A L15 EW on these and Josh’s two might generate a profit? I was tempted.
2:20 FAIRYHOUSE Handicap Hurdle
Elusive Ivy
nice 7/1
2:55 FAIRYHOUSE Handicap Hurdle
Townshend
3/1
3.50 Hayd: Throthethatch
25/1 ew
I see Broadway Buffalo is being tipped a bit today and Katie Walsh is riding? I initially thought this was a pipe opener ( pardon the pun) fot The Grand National or Cheltenham? However it must be fit if it is being tipped up?
Tipped Up? depends who is doing the tipping haha – not much I can say to put anyone off anything in that race. hadnt been asked for much effort when falling in this race last year. If they want him fit then he will be fit enough to win for sure, albeit a break like that in this type of ground is always a concern. fairly unexposed still and clearly a case can be made – as you say, i would think their sights are fixed on Cheltenham so who knows what he is meant to do today!
I do fancy RDB as my main bet, I thought he was going well until being interfered with by a loose horse in his last race, but I will have a saver on HTV, as you point out he was going best of all in this race last year losing by only a head to Lie Forrit. Many thanks Josh, keep up the good work.
Good luck, yep certainly won’t put you off RDB, great old horse. Must have a chance if his season doesn’t catch up with him,AMD he is on a going day. Agree,unlucky last day and was going well, probably have placed,3rd at worst if completing. Saved some energy not finishing there mind,which could help! Good luck. I couldn’t turn down 10s when rest were 5/6-1