Members Report: 19/02/16 (COMPLETE)

Read My Daily Punt Column: Stats/Trends 3.15 Haydock HERE>>>


Dust of that wheelbarrow…


4.20 Sandown 

Loose Chips – 2 points win – 8/1 2nd 7/1

Arbeo – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH) 10/1 (BV) 3rd 10/1

Market not yet fully formed, dont all dive in at once mind this early, you may make him fav in 20 minutes haha (that is a joke, I don’t think we move the market just yet, but a few hundred clicking at this hour may arise suspicion) 

*prices as of 16.51. I don’t think Loose Chips will be put in bigger than 8s but he may. 


As you may know I added Loose Chips into my tracker after his run at Warwick. I added a few in my tracker that day, and the two to have run out the race since have both won (one tipped, lucky, the other noted as an Eye-catcher on a daily post – 5/2 + 3/1) 

I thought it was a brave and brilliant run all things considered. He went off like a train and didn’t get his own way up front, tussling for most of the way, switching between having an easy lead and having to track other front runners. He was also lit up early on as NF tried to get to the front and then was pulling his arms out for a time. To go that hard, for that long in deep ground, and to lead a G3 handicap chase field, was some effort to me. He faded pretty quickly, probably 7f or so from home, over 29f.

This race is clearly nowhere near as good as that one and I think he will have a much more pleasant time on the front end. Arbeo likes to race up there but I should think will be happy to sit behind. The fav has raced up there as well but I hope/part expect that Dickie will want to get him into a rhythm and ensure he jumps/stays. As such, I think Loose Chips will be able to dictate. My gut and my head says that he may well be very hard to catch! 

There are no problems with race conditions and in general he has been in good form this season. He has won at the track before and based on a novice handicap chase win is still well enough handicapped. Despite being 10, this is only his 18th chase start. Longsdon is also hitting a bit of form also. I think we are sure to get a run for our money from this one and should at least be clutching our bet slips in anticipation as he comes to the pond fence. There is a small chance that he isn’t over that last run, but he didn’t have to put in a ‘finishing effort’ there – but, if he fades quickly,that will be the ready excuse!! 

8/1 felt rather big to me and given the bank we have built up, and how bullish I am feeling, I have pulled out the 2 pointer – which is pretty much max win bet territory for me. 

Arebeo– Well more of a punt but when looking at his profile he ticks all the boxes required. He is a dour stayer, will like the ground and has won at the track here, over fences. Albeit that was over shorter but he won despite conditions there. I think 9/1 – 11/1 underestimates his chance. He should track LC, and if he goes too fast, or makes an error, could be in the right place to slog it out up the hill. He will appreciate his light weight and his mark does not concern me. He is in form, winning form, which helps also. 

The Opposition…

I am more than comfortable taking this fav on WON and if he wins then well done. I can’t touch him at 11/4. He is 0/3, 1 place chasing and made a few errors last time at Cheltenham. That was a fairly weak C2 (we had the winner that day :)) and this is an unforgiving place for a horse that may have jumping issues and who is inexperienced. Due to the pace they will go there will be no hiding place. That break is also an ‘iffy’ length for me. Jonjo is still a bit in and out (despite me thinking he is about to burst into life) and he doesnt do that well here. 1/20 all handicaps last 730 days, 0/8, 1 place handicap chases. He is only 6/81 with all runners here since 2009 – for a yard of his caliber that isnt great. Anyway, he can win, clearly. He is young, unexposed, looks like he wants a trip etc. But I cant touch 11/4. I hope he is held up. It could be suicidal, given his profile, to try and go with LC, and would also compromise his chance.

Dancing Shadow is yet to win a race and likes placing, 0/11 in career now. Dartnall is also a bit cold, all 6 of his previous runners finishing unplaced. His placed form, and progressive profile entitle him to be up there, but i’m happy enough to leave at 6s. Sands Cove is interesting as he is still unexposed for this trainer – his profile is exposed. Now 0/15, 4 places at C3 level and you would think he needs more, albeit his last run was decent enough. He is a proper hold up horse (or has been) and he will be under huge jumping pressure when trying to close the leaders. Not for me here. I’m happy to take on the rest and wouldn’t really want to back any of them on their profiles/recent form. 

Good Luck


Nope, that will be it for Tips. 

I will be cheering on ‘Pendo’ at Fakenham tomorrow, from my couch admittedly. (I can’t get there) She was a member of our cycling club back home ‘Mildenhall CC’ (my parents are keen cyclists/members/involved etc) and as you would expect dominated the cycling scene in her teens at our annual cycling rally –  her Dad still organises the grass track cycling at this event. So, that is my personal connection and I for one think what she is doing is great, for her and our sport. Plenty of moaners cannot stand the project. There are some very sad and jealous people in this world of ours.   




Fry Mares (10/1< guide): 2.45 Sand: Jessbers Dream* WON 11/2 (in places morning) 9/2 SP

*this one could be short again,and not many of his seem to go off at a price, which is stating the obvious I know, but maybe the market is well in tune with his now. Just a hunch for now. Something for me to keep an eye on. At least we have Pam Sly to wave the fillies/mares flag



Nothing catching me eye today. 


That is all for today.



A quick micro for ‘the maestro’ that is Alan King. He is not in the guide as I only included those with 2 or more wins in the ‘trainer profiles’ section. 

Anyway, one of you, Anthony has made a few  ‘Cheltenham Handicap’ related comments and also sent me an email about his place record with certain runners. So, I got digging..

(last 5 festivals) 

Handicap Chases: 1/20, 2 places

Non-Handicap Hurdles: 0/23, 4 places

Non-Handicap Chases: 2/15, 6 places (they are clearly worth keeping a close eye on – go on Smad!- dreaming there maybe!) 

HANDICAP HURDLES: 1/20, 8 places…

It is the place record which catches the eye… 

A few general pointers before ‘the angle’ 

  • In the Fred Winter: 6 runners, 3 places (no runner last two seasons) 
  • French Breds: 1/6, 3 places
  • Up more than 1f in trip from last run: 0/4, 0 places
  • Placed LTO: 1/12, 6 places. 0/8, 2 places did not 
  • Days Rest: 
    • 16-20 days: 0/5, 3 places
    • 21-30 days: 0/8, 0 places
    • 31-45 days: 1/6, 4 places

So, if you looked at his handicap hurdlers, Did Not run 16-20 days ago, NOT moving up in trip by more than 1 furlong...

That leaves 10 bets / 1 win / 8 w|places (all of his placed runners) 

A formline of…

13, 3 (16/1), 2 (33/1), 13,13,3 (3/1), 13, 2 (14/1), 1 (33/1), 7, 13, 3 (20/1)

So, that is something to keep an eye on. 

The rest pattern is interesting given form of those either side of it. It could be the tracks they run at in that 21-30 day period, or the races not being good preps for the Festival. I don’t really know, and it could just be luck/random But, it’s worth keeping an eye on. 

That’s all on him. 



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Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

49 Responses

    1. blimey, they let me have a full £20, clearly havent won enough through them yet – albeit maybe I should lay off them a tad, a ‘little’ bit sat in that account. What a farce. Given the fav, etc, and unfashionable connections, Arbeo may be decent price BFSP, but who knows!

  1. I have got on with Bet Victor at 8/1 via my iPhone. I find that I can get more on this way than via my laptop. I have reinvested my Lee Side Lady (I got 2/1 on course) who slogged home. I am at Sandown tomorrow so will watch it win live. Betfair have started restricting me now but apart from Ladbrokes, who have stopped me, I seem to slip under the radar so far of the other 15 I have accounts with. Maybe the secret is to spread it around?

    1. The iphone/smartphone angle is an interesting one. Yep, to an extent I am not sure what you can do,, ultimately, if anything. I have read that keeping withdrawals down can help, as that obviously costs them money and may be a trigger. I think you are right about spreading it around. I have been guilty of not doing that, esp when x amount in certain accounts. Consistently taking top price, when only one bookie top price, or with the same bookie, can also lead to problems I think.

  2. Hi Josh

    I dont know whether you were planning to tip in it given its a 3m chase but what do you make of Cowards Close in the 15:20 at Sandown. Obviously won it last year off just 2lbs higher. It seems to have all the right conditions just the stable switch is putting me off a little. Trying to figure out why Nicholls let it go at such an early start of his career. Not that Gordon is a mug.


    1. Hi Nick,
      I don’t rally plan to look at that race, given how it is, the jockeys etc. It is a good/fun race to watch and clearly some clues for when they return to a ‘proper’ race, for want of a better phrase. On paper, and past form, he looks to have the outstanding chance but it is a leap of faith given his recent form! I will leave that one to you, good luck!

      1. Hi Josh,

        Yeah I know what you mean. I think I’ll have a shovel’s as opposed to a wheelbarrel’s worth.


          1. Having looked at it properly I think Newton Thistle is the better bet at the prices, particularly as the jockey looks very reliable with a 4/18, 12 places lifetime.

    2. Lots of hores have left Paul Nicholls and joined Chris Gordon in the last eighteen months or so (is it due to an owner moving horses)?

    1. Yep, Gary did like my tweet, which made me suspect he may well have done as well. He is a judge, so I wont complain!

  3. got 7/1 loose chips bet 365 its also narrowing the field trends horse and fits all the trends lets hope it wins be a good start to the weekend

    1. He looks sure to run a big race for me. if he gets into a lead and a jumping rhythm I think he will be hard to stop. He will force some of the inexperienced ones into errors behind I think. We shall see, 7s and 8s was/is just too big all things considered, regardless of how he now runs.

  4. I see that Williams and Deutsch as a T & J comb had a winner today and are together for one ride on Friday in the 4.50 at Sandown, One Style 11/4 in a hurdle. I wonder if they are worth following? Maybe in chases only?

    1. According to HRB that was the first time Charlie Deutsch had ever ridden a horse for Nick Williams so not a lot to go on really 🙂

      1. EDIT> oops, wrong Williams! 6/31 overall showing a level stakes loss overall…4/23 in chases, just about breaks even…

  5. Loose Chips, 6 runs since he put up a good speed figure on soft, somewhat a dodgy jumper.
    Fond Memory, back in trip, 10.13 instead of 11.9 last run looks like an improver.
    I do not think Arbeo is quick enough, you have to go back to April 2013 for a good time.

    1. Loose Chips has good form on soft though – I’d say he prefers it soft. As he is a frontrunner, perhaps he often doesn;t need to produce a good time I think his jumping is pretty decent too – an attacking jumper (as many frontrunners are) and can get it wrong but I wwouldn;t say he’s a bad jumper all.

    2. Hi Edmund…
      Those reasonable observations require some unpacking given my own approach, but I will try and be brief (not a strongpoint of mine!)

      -Really your view appears to revolve around the speed ratings that you use, clearly rate, and have no doubt had success with. I am not really a ratings punter in that respect, nor a great user of speed ratings. Indeed it isnt a topic I know much about. I do use the speed ratings within the Geegeez Racecards which are devised by a Dr Peter May – I dont know how they are calculated (i could find out it I wanted) but they appear to be a decent enough guide. I glance at them, and consider them, but they are never a deciding factor. Likewise when I use the general ratings in Horse Race Base, I use their top 3 as a guide – and indeed when a fancy of mine is in the top 3 in their ratings and top 3 in geegeez speed ratings that adds extra confidence. (Loose Chips is 3rd rated on both)

      -so, not knowing how the ratings you use are devised, I cant really comment on them. My approach is very much about the profile of the horse, suitability to race conditions,running style, and their class – based on how they have run in certain classes, and my assessment of the oppo. None of today’s oppo have raced at a level to which LC did LTO really, and none in here would have lived with him the last day. Indeed I would think until just before he got tired his speed figure was rather impressive.

      -that thought process of ‘its been x amount of runs since he did x’ isnt something I do myself, so again im not best placed to comment. He has plenty of form on soft, has won on heavy, and the way he ran LTO suggests heavy/soft is no problem at all. I wont be using that as an excuse

      -jumpig – he can make the odd error and at times be a bit scrappy – but he is a good jumper on the whole, and certainly no worse than any others in here. He would have been going quicker than ideal LTO, but still jumped well. The unseat was due to tiredness, not poor technique. Here he should be able to dictate at the pace he wants, and as such the jumping should be fine. He has won at Sandown, he has gone very close to winning at Ascot. Poor jumpers simply do not do that at those two tracks.

      That front running point of Matt’s is also very good in terms of speed. You back front runners because you feel they can get into a rhythm that could put jumping pressure on those behind and because you want them to dictate their own pace. That means in theory their ‘speed figures’ should never be that good (depending how they are calculated) because you want them to go slow, and then ratchet up the speed, kicking for home and putting the race to bed. The most efficient is if they can go the same speed the whole way – if they do that and are 10L + ahead, there is only one way the horses behind can get closer – and that is for them to go quicker. Some either cant, or this extra speed forces errors (Don Cossack in King George being a prime example)

      -Fond Memory – he is lightly raced over fences and could still improve. Correct there, and as such I cant say he wont/cant win with that profile. He just has to prove his class. His penultimate run he was carrying 11-12, so a big weight is no issue and I wont use that as an excuse LTO – on his form to date he looks like a C4 chaser – happy for him to prove me wrong. He is carrying less weight today because there are better horses in this race, and more of them, than the last day. He also has yet to prove a liking for soft in handicap company, best form with Good in the title, and his wins have been on dead flat tracks – so has that to prove. NTD is also 0/12, 0 places with all handicappers here in last 730 days. I was happy to take him on,and am happy for him to prove me wrong.

      Finally, on the speed figs I have access to, Arbeo is top rated, LC is 3rd rated. Ratings, Eh?!

      I agree that Arbeo may well be too slow, but if he can go his own pace in 2nd/3rd, and not taken out of his comfort zone, he will jump and stay up this hill, which means he may not be too far away. And at 11s, I was happy to take the chance.

      Good luck with Fond M – if neither of my two are in contention I will be cheering him on for you, and I am cracking/whipping the eggs as we speak! 🙂

      1. Oh thank the Lord, a very respected punter and tipster who is not obsessed with speed figures.

        I go nuts watching Cunningham and Willoughby on RUK and C4 going on and on and on about speed figures.

        My own personal opinion is that they have a financial interest in propelling this myth and trying to ram it down out throats.

        I get and can understand that in “all out” sprints over 5/6f or on AW surfaces where the Going is consistent that there is some merit in knowing how fast a horse is over the trip or sections.

        However, when it comes to any NH race or any Flat race on turf in the UK with our tracks having so many quirks; undulations and Going variances it is a complete and utter turn off…and a waste of money imho….true that you can spot a horse who needs a fast pace to come from behind from or a front runner who will need to run certain fractions but to drone on and on and on like those 2 clowns do, just makes me turn over…

        1. Yep I tend to agree – albeit I like watching Willoughby for an education, and to widen understanding. However, you can get too scientific for me and over complicate this great game of ours. And well, quite frankly, I have done ok over jumps without ‘the need for speed’ 🙂 I do not enjoy reducing this sport down to just numbers and data (which is why even on my systems side human behavior/trainer behavior is the main thrust) – that turn me off. And, as you say, so many variances.

          I am a handicap punter on the whole, and ‘profiling’ is what works for me, an assessment of pace,jumping,trainer/track records/form etc. I can see why, on flat esp, some use speed to predict whether a maiden runner or something may have the ability for group class – but that doesnt interest me.

          Still, glad that approach exists, and the fascination – because it means that we are not all backing similar horses for the same reasons etc, which isnt good for long term profits.

          Finally…two days ago I saw how much the TimeForm Jury costs – GULP – £90 a month I believe. Nearly spat out my coffee…and wait for it, they made you +20 points in January. Clearly a service for the £50 unit stake high rollers. Not for me.

  6. Josh – I agree entirely with your comments about Victoria Pendleton, great to see her giving it a real go, OK she has had a lot of help but the training and effort she has put in is highly commendable and there is no fun in mucking in, mucking out and riding round those point to point circuits – anyone who has gone racing and stood by a chase fence and seen what the job entails should understand the danger, an in terms of the race she plans to ride in at Cheltenham, one only has to look at what happened to JT McNamara to realise the dangers involved….as for you cycling on grass in Mildenhall, surely you tried the real thing with no brakes at the speedway track there????

    1. Indeed Ian. Well, if one of our greatest every Olympians doesnt deserve a leg up, not sure who does. And, despite that initial help, you have still got to want it. You cant get where she has in that time without really hard work and dedication and it is clear she loves the animals, and really enjoys the sport. You could remove betfair,say she will never be on tv,never race at Cheltenham, and I bet you would find her mucking out and riding out at the Hill’s tomorrow morning. Yep, not exactly the safest of sports to jump into.

      Well, I wont pretend I am a great/regular cyclists – that family love affair has only mildly rubbed off on me! Speedway?…do you mean riding a speedway bike – I havent actually been to watch speedway there, plenty of greyhound racing and banger racing at that venue… unless you are getting at something else and I am having a moment!…

      1. I just wondered Josh as there were some brother surnamed “Wright” who rode there some years ago…Mildenhall Speedway that is…agree 100% with what you say about VP, lets be honest she could easily make thousands on a catwalk…brave girl deserves to succeed.

        1. Nope I dont believe so, nor any relatives. Must be some more Wrights about! -although suspect many traveled from all over region to race there. A good friend’s Dad, a Mr Farnham, used to ride speedway there, a few years ago now!

  7. I see Jessbers has drifted out to 5/1 due to most tipsters going with Katie Too. Some value now but he may need further and so in danger of being outpaced?

    Loose Chips seems to be holding at 6/1.

    Good luck today.

    1. would be tempted at those odds – as you point to, the drift more likely due to money for fav – who could be anything, albeit that was a weak race LTO and so far only really raced on flat tracks. NF may be able to lead from the front again, and that was a good race LTO, this trip, in this track up this hill may actually be ideal. Just whether this race comes too soon but trainer must be happy enough.

      Yep, money coming for Bertie B – despite bits and pieces still not 100% convinced he truly sees out this trip – did plod on over 3m5f here or so, but dont think he was ‘staying on’ if that makes sense. Also a hold up horse who can hit fences really hard, and had hard enough race LTO – and I think Dickie may have had choice. And he was also 8/1 last night, and was backing LC over him all day long at same prices. So, that’s why I have taken him on – albeit he does have bits and pieces, if jumping well, to trouble us.

      1. I looked long and hard at BB as a result of a daily mailing I get from a subn tipster; but having weighed up their assessment and yours, I have to say I am happy to be on Loose Chips and have got some 6/1 about him, as you say jumping (especially round Sandown with its quirky configuration) is the name of the game and I believe you are spot on about LC making the pace up front and I can see BB making errors if it gets out of its comfort zone…..fingers crossed

  8. Josh,
    When I as a ‘learner’ started monitoring tipsters in the Racing Post; years ago; Topspeed had twice the results of all the others, this naturally has had an effect on my betting since.
    The history of this race shows by age and weight, 2015 back> 8YO 11.8 / 11YO 11.5 / 7YO 11.5 / 7YO 11.2 / 9YO 11.0 / 8YO 11.5 / so in general the race is won by a 7 or 8 year old carrying less than 11.9.
    Hence one of my reasons for looking elsewhere rather than Loose Chips 10YO 11.10, though it is also on my ‘to watch’ list.
    I think we are lucky in the UK to have ‘intelligent’ racing with all the variables.
    Beware improvers!

    1. Yep, good points. Are formative years influence us all, and as I say you clearly have an approach that works, and this young upstart wont be passing uninformed judgement!

      my job is never to put anyone off a horse, rather say why I like something and why I may not. So, good luck with the Twister horse. We shall see if today’s winner follows past successors.

      Yep, the variables are what make it such a great and challenging sport, so many ways in! Good Luck.

  9. Drink up in progress at Sandown after Jessbers at 5/1. Anyone who is here come and join us. Should be bedlam if Loose Chips goes in!

    Josh, will have one for you! I will send an extra donation to you on Sunday.

    1. Ah brilliant, sounds like a top day and hopefully Jessy has helped pay for it! rather went to plan, leading all the way, dictating,only dangers were in front. We shall see what LC does, should at least get a run for our money – famous last words!

    1. yep, no issues with that. The day I stop taking on 3m+ chase favs with that profile will be the day to stop! He put it all together in the visor, good ride from dickie who kept him closer, was hoping he may be held out back as pressure would have been on jumping trying to close, he was still iffy. No complaints, we were entertained at least!

    1. Yep, ran with his heart on his sleeve, no complaints, right horse beat him if he put it all together, which he did. Always take that type on at 11/4! Onto tomorrow.

  10. i;d complain a little bit,think noel fehily should of at least jumped the last fence in the lead instead of taking it a bit too easy ,in comparison johnson threw everything at the winner from 2 out to the last.

    1. Dont think it made a difference, maybe he could have tried to kick a bit more but I think he just bumped into one with more in hand and more class, who put it all together. He won with a fair bit in hand in the end and evident only chance was if second made some more major errors/responded negatively in headgear. Dickie wise to not want to hold him up too far so credit to him for that. Dickie wasnt throwing everything at him, more cajoling a tricky character for me, he always looked confident from about 3 out – ominously so to my eye. Dont think LC could go any quicker. Thats racing.

      That winner is only going to get better with experience, and maybe over much further.

      Just my opinion mind, I am well versed in agreeing to disagree!

      1. you aremore understanding than me josh,i saw aiden coleman do this last year when the odds on fav had jumped the last 2 poorly,he waited to long and allowed him to get back at him and jump the last in the lead,bit of pet hate of mine this is becoming when i see jockeys do this lol

        1. yep, i can see where you are coming from – and I would have liked to see him try and boot him after the pond fence – only as that would put pressure on the runner ups jumping – but of course, if NF had fired him at a couple of fences and he tipped up, we would be shouting ‘why did you boot him into that!!’ 🙂 us punters never happy, ultimately. But, this is a long game, and we will win plenty of races by perceived ‘poor rides’ on rivals in behind. It all evens out, and I am generally quite placid and dont think about such things in much depth! It also helps when we have X amount of points in the bank and you are not desperate for winners! 🙂 (that will happen at some point, and I may be cursing all my bad luck!)

          Would also add LC is a right old trier, heat on sleeve, and in many of his races he has come back at horses when passed – the fact he didnt here, suggests actually the tank was pretty empty.

  11. Loose Chips ran a good race and the Fav just got him on the day. I had 8/1 each way last night and so cannot complain. Maybe Jonjo is finding some form? Well done Josh, another day tomorrow.

    1. Yep, I had £20 on the £148/1 tricast….only joking, I didnt! Great run from him, decent run from the 3rd, no complaints here. Still +10 for the week into tomorrow – still reading the races right so happy enough!


  13. SORRY JOSH.just wanted people to notice wont be long till everyone only has the exchanges kevin blake wrote a good article on atr web.they relly treat people like SHIT.sshhhhhh paddy

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